Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to Anonymous,bruncher,niord,gvonge,Shelford, for Donating to support the site

Current market drop - any bargains?

For discussion of the practicalities of setting up and operating income-portfolios which follow the HYP Group Guidelines. READ Guidelines before posting
Forum rules
Tight HYP discussions only please - OT please discuss in strategies
pyad
Lemon Slice
Posts: 450
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:17 am
Been thanked: 1119 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#1554

Postby pyad » November 7th, 2016, 9:20 am

Lootman wrote:The mention of debt there is significant. Some companies actually borrow money to buy back shares. While other companies do buybacks out of earnings and may not even have any debt. The former I regard as a black mark, but the latter can have merit, and I note that even your blanket criticism acknowledges some exceptions. It's best to assess each case on its individual merits rather than make grand generalisations....


Almost all companies operating buybacks have net debt so ""grand generalisations" are wholly apposite here. In any case even if they, rarely, have net cash my comments remain valid. Net debt or net cash, buybacks have a negative effect on the figure. In fact a double blow because both net debt (or net cash) and net assets are hit by a buyback. The special cases to which I was referring are sufficiently rare or of such minor scale to be ignored in the general view that buybacks stink.

...As for whether you can call it "yield" or not, that is another matter. But I don't think that it matters so much. One can posit different kinds of yield, e.g. dividend yield, earnings yield, buyback yield and so on. As long as the word is qualified and its meaning is clear, then the rest is just semantics...


You don't seem to be aware of the fact, or more likely are being disingenuous, that the term "yield" on its own is normally understood here, in the original message, and everywhere else to mean dividend yield. One cannot "posit" anything else so I guess that you are trying to be argumentative for the sake of it.

...There are some types of situation where I like buybacks. One would be where I seek to avoid or defer the income tax I'd have to pay on dividends. Another is a case where a company is spinning off excess cash (like some tech companies) and the alternative would be a dubious acquisition. And a company in a sustained growth pattern will profit from extra operational gearing...


Very odd. This is the HYP board, not some general share trading board. You claim you'd rather lose a dividend in order to save tax, even though after tax you still derive some net income, in favour of a buyback from which you cannot derive any benefit and on the contrary will suffer as gearing and risk increases. As I said earlier it beats me that a HYPer would think this but again I suspect you don't really believe it and again are just trying to make sport here.

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10539
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3678 times
Been thanked: 5323 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#1556

Postby Arborbridge » November 7th, 2016, 9:31 am

"One cannot "posit" anything else so I guess that you are trying to be argumentative for the sake of it."


Pyad, I'd say that's probably true, and proves this is the genuine Lootman back:)

idpickering
The full Lemon
Posts: 11498
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 5:04 pm
Has thanked: 2486 times
Been thanked: 5850 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#1558

Postby idpickering » November 7th, 2016, 9:32 am

I'm so glad you came to this board Stephen!!

Always good to see your posts and articles. Is it likely you'll bless us with any articles on this forum I wonder? I do hope so.

Regards,

Ian.

pyad
Lemon Slice
Posts: 450
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:17 am
Been thanked: 1119 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#1566

Postby pyad » November 7th, 2016, 10:01 am

idpickering wrote:I'm so glad you came to this board Stephen!!

Always good to see your posts and articles. Is it likely you'll bless us with any articles on this forum I wonder? I do hope so.

Regards,

Ian.


Thanks Ian. I may post here more than on the Fool where I'd more or less given up a long time ago.

88V8
Lemon Half
Posts: 5904
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:22 am
Has thanked: 4256 times
Been thanked: 2628 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#1626

Postby 88V8 » November 7th, 2016, 11:58 am

The only merit I can see in buybacks is that they offset the new shares issued in 'executive incentive' and SAYE schemes. Without occasional buybacks, existing shareholders are steadily diluted.
On the whole though I would prefer that companies with what they deem excess cash, just give it back to shareholders, as do Admiral.

V8

Edit: oh look, we've gone o/t and no one has reported us. Wheeeee !

pyad
Lemon Slice
Posts: 450
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:17 am
Been thanked: 1119 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#1634

Postby pyad » November 7th, 2016, 12:13 pm

88V8 wrote:The only merit I can see in buybacks is that they offset the new shares issued in 'executive incentive' and SAYE schemes. Without occasional buybacks, existing shareholders are steadily diluted.
On the whole though I would prefer that companies with what they deem excess cash, just give it back to shareholders, as do Admiral.

V8

Edit: oh look, we've gone o/t and no one has reported us. Wheeeee !


Yeah, those are examples of some special situations I had in mind. But they are inconsequential.

The debate concerns the major expenditure on buybacks that many companies have made over the years, which increase risk disproportionately by increasing gearing via the double blow effect, and impact dividends negatively.

Just as there are frequently turkeys voting for Christmas in life, so there are HYPers supporting buybacks. Though as I've remarked, some of this I think is feigned for sport so I doubt I'll reply to such provocateurs in future.

Incidentally I too welcome the refreshing lack of moderation which was way too excessive on the Fool in my, and many other readers', opinion. There were far too many who reported posts like the school snitch, and the weakling moderators would almost always back the snitch rather than the original poster.

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 19139
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 646 times
Been thanked: 6793 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#1681

Postby Lootman » November 7th, 2016, 1:36 pm

Arborbridge wrote:"One cannot "posit" anything else so I guess that you are trying to be argumentative for the sake of it."

Pyad, I'd say that's probably true, and proves this is the genuine Lootman back:)


One might equally infer that there is no question that this is the genuine pyad back, with his utter intolerance and irritable dismissal of anyone with a different view about investing.

I continue to regard share buybacks as a significant indicator of the confidence that a company has in itself, if it is done in the manner and for the reasons I outlined, but not otherwise. And I certainly do not harbour a blanket disapproval of them - there are just too many variable to consider for a one-dimensional generalisation to be valid.

That said, I share some of Pyad's concerns about TMF and agree with him that strong opinions and emotions here are not things that should be moderated away in the interests of "civility" (whatever that is). So let the debates continue . . .

Clariman
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3276
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:17 am
Has thanked: 3099 times
Been thanked: 1559 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#1752

Postby Clariman » November 7th, 2016, 4:12 pm

88V8 wrote:Edit: oh look, we've gone o/t and no one has reported us. Wheeeee !


That's where you are wrong. Someone has reported it (thanks to the person who did). Our intention is that the boards here will be moderated. The Report Post structure is in place and the board software also supports the role of moderators, but it may be a couple of days before we are fully on top of these things. We don't want to stop lively debate but my view is that people should 'play the ball rather than the (wo)man'.

So all good for now, but be aware that moderation will happen :)

toofast2live
Lemon Slice
Posts: 494
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 2:24 pm
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 98 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#1763

Postby toofast2live » November 7th, 2016, 4:31 pm

Loot, quite apart from pyad's comments does not the academic evidence show directors do buy backs nearer market tops than bottoms. Not many buybacks in 2008 2009. But now, after a roaring bull run of 6 or 7 years buy backs are peaking.

Spare cash? Give it shareholders, please, not by buying their shares but giving them special dividends. Then I can decide if I'll buy more of their shares.

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 19139
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 646 times
Been thanked: 6793 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#1801

Postby Lootman » November 7th, 2016, 5:23 pm

toofast2live wrote:Loot, quite apart from pyad's comments does not the academic evidence show directors do buy backs nearer market tops than bottoms. Not many buybacks in 2008 2009. But now, after a roaring bull run of 6 or 7 years buy backs are peaking.

Spare cash? Give it shareholders, please, not by buying their shares but giving them special dividends. Then I can decide if I'll buy more of their shares.


Yes, I am aware of how it can backfire horribly - a form of buying at the top, compounded by increasing debt, where that happens. But there are other cases where it works - for instance I have one long-term holding where over the years a total of 20% of the shares outstanding have been re-purchased and cancelled. The share price growth, dividend growth and earnings growth have all exceeded the market average.

Which is why I say look at the individual company before rubbishing a buyback.

All that said, if you buy shares to maximise the distributed income, don't mind the income tax, never intend to sell, and aren't so concerned about growth rates, then I think avoiding buybacks is a decent default position to take. Put the burden of proof on the company suggesting a buyback.

Ultimately shareholders have to approve buybacks, so if you don't like them and get out-voted, you need a backup position.

seekingbalance
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 163
Joined: November 7th, 2016, 11:14 am
Has thanked: 16 times
Been thanked: 66 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#2059

Postby seekingbalance » November 8th, 2016, 9:43 am

The big problem with company executive reward packages is the laws of unintended consequences. You will not be surprised to see that many if not most of the companies who do a lot of buybacks have two things in common - 1) they issue a lot of new shares for staff compensation and 2) they are targeted on earnings per share increases. They also, as pyad said, will tend to be supported by the institutional holders as they see the direct cash benefits by being the suppliers of the shares.

When CEOs have 10s of millions at stake each year linked to share price and earnings per share targets, guess what they are going to do!

I hate buybacks, unless it is in a company that you bought knowing it does not nor ever will pay a dividend, and even then only if they do I think to a sensible price formula. I can only think of one company off hand, Berkshire Hathaway.

pyad
Lemon Slice
Posts: 450
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:17 am
Been thanked: 1119 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#2077

Postby pyad » November 8th, 2016, 10:28 am

This is the HYP board. For HYPers I see nothing at all welcome about buybacks. It is all downside. Many years ago it was actually illegal. Unfortunately there's nothing we can do about it because the small guy has no meaningful vote. I'm not suggesting HYPers should sell out of companies operating BBs because you wouldn't have many left if you had done this over the years. BBs are not so common now but a few years ago it was an epidemic with almost all typical HYP shares indulging in this foul practice.

In a classic instance of corporate sheep behaviour, they just about all did it and only because everyone else was doing it. Dumb directors were talked into this fashion by an unholy alliance of bankers, institutional investors and that academic mentality which preaches that swapping equity for debt, reducing the former and increasing the latter, which is what BBs achieve, is somehow a good thing. Until they hit a bad patch then they are in trouble because their debt is too high. Chopping their dividend is then one of the easiest sources of reducing expenditure.

Sickeningly, they always referred to BBS in their reports as a "return to shareholders", implying that this is the same as a dividend in which all shareholders participate equally. In fact hardly any shareholders benefit at all and in particular the income seeker actually loses out compared with a special dividend. The only beneficiary is the institutional crony enabled to dump a line of stock at an advantageous price.

What slowed the practice to a near halt in recent years I suspect was not so much a change of heart, an epiphany to the truth that debt stinks, but pragmatically, tough times which reduced the available cash. I fear that if the good times return and these big companies start having too much cash again, the BB epidemic will return.

I rage against BBs here and elsewhere in the hope that I might make some tiny contribution to changing this disgusting fashion, for that's all it is. Because corporate types are such pusillanimous sheep, once the mood takes hold that increasing debt and reducing equity is bad, they will all follow suit. But what is so terribly sad is to see some small investors, those seeking income like HYPers, defending the indefensible. Like I said, even a turkey will occasionally vote for Christmas.

mickeypops
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 200
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 2:10 pm
Has thanked: 129 times
Been thanked: 220 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#2085

Postby mickeypops » November 8th, 2016, 10:50 am

The old adage "A cow for her milk, A hen for her eggs, And a stock, by heck, for its dividends." always resonated with me. I can understand intellectually the concept of total return investing, but if you're relying on investment income in retirement, for example, nothing - to my mind - can beat the simplicity or satisfaction of the arrival of dividends into the old bank account.

piccadilly
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 135
Joined: November 13th, 2016, 7:49 am
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 1 time

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#4373

Postby piccadilly » November 13th, 2016, 7:56 am

Does anybody know why the reason for Vodafones recent fall in share price?

Arborbridge
The full Lemon
Posts: 10539
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 3678 times
Been thanked: 5323 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#4386

Postby Arborbridge » November 13th, 2016, 9:10 am

I do hope we are not going of on one of those horrid hundred post threads which I feared might happen here. Each side has stated it's arguments - arguements which have been repeated often enough in the other place. Let's just leave it there and get back to HYP Practical. Pyad - you will convince most of the HYP audiance, but there is no point trying to convince Lootman because he loves and endless argument, and note, he will always want that last word. A statesman like silence is best.

Please take any endless circular discussion over on to HYSS where they can expand as far as they like - they seem short of posts over there at present.

Arb.

piccadilly
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 135
Joined: November 13th, 2016, 7:49 am
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 1 time

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#4392

Postby piccadilly » November 13th, 2016, 9:42 am

I understand your reasons re Vodafone

It is just that the brokers seem to be tipping a strong buy £2.40 to £2.85 target.

toofast2live
Lemon Slice
Posts: 494
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 2:24 pm
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 98 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#4395

Postby toofast2live » November 13th, 2016, 9:46 am

What's arb on about. I thought we were talking about vod?

CommissarJones
Lemon Slice
Posts: 367
Joined: November 10th, 2016, 9:15 pm
Been thanked: 103 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#4426

Postby CommissarJones » November 13th, 2016, 11:06 am

ap8889 wrote:Selling Verizon means the big dividend is badly uncovered, and capital spends are being made to upgrade their network. All in all it looks like the dividend is very questionable and the market is pricing in a cut.


Project Spring, VOD's big program of investment in its network, is now finished. So that will no longer be soaking up cash flow, leaving more money available for the dividend. The following is from VOD's most recent annual results in May:

"We have now successfully concluded our Project Spring organic investment programme. ... Free cash flow was £1.0 billion (2015: £1.1 billion), suppressed by elevated capital expenditures for Project Spring. ... We expect free cash flow to exceed €4.0 billion, after all capex, before M&A, spectrum payments and restructuring costs. This level of cash generation, combined with healthy growth and continued operating leverage, provides us with the visibility to sustain a progressive dividend policy."

I hold VOD and will definitely consider topping up if the market keeps coming down.

piccadilly
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 135
Joined: November 13th, 2016, 7:49 am
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 1 time

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#4429

Postby piccadilly » November 13th, 2016, 11:19 am

I tend to agree - I think I will take the plunge if they fall below £2.00

CommissarJones
Lemon Slice
Posts: 367
Joined: November 10th, 2016, 9:15 pm
Been thanked: 103 times

Re: Current market drop - any bargains?

#4432

Postby CommissarJones » November 13th, 2016, 11:36 am

toofast2live wrote:What's arb on about. I thought we were talking about vod?


I believe he was referring not to VOD, but rather to the discussion of buybacks earlier in the thread.

On an unrelated note, it's great to see that this site was set up so quickly in response to the unexpected closing of the Fool U.K. boards and that so many posters have migrated over.


Return to “HYP Practical (See Group Guidelines)”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests