Arb HYP adjustment

[tjh290633]

Interestingly, I topped up Aviva last Tuesday. BATS was then next in line of eligible shares, but their increased dividend has now ruled them out.

See viewtopic.php?p=566771#p566771

TJH

Is that because that's pushed the income hgher than allowed?

Exactly that. They have now gone over 4.2% of income. However, with many final results to come that may change. Things are never static.

TJH

[Arborbridge]

Owing to some problems with Sharecast, the HYPTUSS isn't easy to use at the moment. Therefore, for this month I am not posting the usual ranking table.

However, my next topups will be for PHP and WDS in equal measure on the 6th March, unless something extraordinary happens.
These turn out to be the highest ranked shares in an account with cash to spare.

Hopefully, Sharecast will be back to normal in a month or two (in short, the yields are out by a factor of 100 while some are returning nonsense) or our boffins will find another data source or a workaround.

Arb.

[kempiejon]

However, my next topups will be for PHP and WDS in equal measure on the 6th March, unless something extraordinary happens.
These turn out to be the highest ranked shares in an account with cash to spare.

Same ranking in my HYP too. WDS by dint of a small holding that came out of the BHP corporate action. PHP as a new pick for last months accumulated dividends, the first new share for years I think. I'm not inclined to add to WDS, I have enough miners. PHP will get more but not this month no divis.

[funduffer]

However, my next topups will be for PHP and WDS in equal measure on the 6th March, unless something extraordinary happens.
These turn out to be the highest ranked shares in an account with cash to spare.

Same ranking in my HYP too. WDS by dint of a small holding that came out of the BHP corporate action. PHP as a new pick for last months accumulated dividends, the first new share for years I think. I'm not inclined to add to WDS, I have enough miners. PHP will get more but not this month no divis.

I would have thought WDS was in the Oil and Gas sector rather than Mining. More like Shell than BHP.

[Arborbridge]

However, my next topups will be for PHP and WDS in equal measure on the 6th March, unless something extraordinary happens.
These turn out to be the highest ranked shares in an account with cash to spare.

Same ranking in my HYP too. WDS by dint of a small holding that came out of the BHP corporate action. PHP as a new pick for last months accumulated dividends, the first new share for years I think. I'm not inclined to add to WDS, I have enough miners. PHP will get more but not this month no divis.

I would have thought WDS was in the Oil and Gas sector rather than Mining. More like Shell than BHP.

So would I.

[kempiejon]

I would have thought WDS was in the Oil and Gas sector rather than Mining. More like Shell than BHP.

Fair point, I have more than enough Shell and BP too

[Arborbridge]

To confirm: I went ahead with top ups of Woodside and PHP yesterday. The HYP now looks like this, ranked in order of capital weighting:



PHP has particular problems concerning interest rates, which hopefully will bring it back into popularity in time if rates drop: meanwhile there's the dividend to enjoy. I find it difficult to believe that "healthcare properties" do not have a stable future, but no one knows. PHP has received capital twice in recent times and is sitting at a loss of 25%: let's hope this isn't turning into perennial "loser".
Which reminds me, I must take a look at my table of "The good, the bad and the ugly" again and post it as a reminder of my continued hopes and follies.

WDS is now at a small profit on TR, whereas PHP is still 11% down even including dividends.

Here is the sector distribution:-



Financials are on the high side, so I'll need to watch that - however, they are all too often in the top of the rankings for toppingup, so tend to call attention to themselves more.

Apart from the possibility of trimming some more AZN, that probably concludes my activity for this month.

Arb.

[Dod101]

Arb

Re PHP, I thought that was what a HYPer aspired to do; enjoy the dividend. If so what is there to worry? It looks a bit over exposed to me re its borrowings and of course higher interest rates are affecting the valuation of its properties. For the HYPer though, the dividend looks secure.

I wonder if we might see a fund raising before long?

Like me, I see you also hold 3i Infrastructure. Their recent fund raising will not have gone down too well. Funds were raised at 330p. Since then the share price has dropped back to around 312p or so, about where it currently sits.

Dod

[Arborbridge]

Arb

Re PHP, I thought that was what a HYPer aspired to do; enjoy the dividend. If so what is there to worry? It looks a bit over exposed to me re its borrowings and of course higher interest rates are affecting the valuation of its properties. For the HYPer though, the dividend looks secure.

I wonder if we might see a fund raising before long?

Like me, I see you also hold 3i Infrastructure. Their recent fund raising will not have gone down too well. Funds were raised at 330p. Since then the share price has dropped back to around 312p or so, about where it currently sits.

Dod

Thanks for your comments, Dod, and at present I do have faith in the PHP business - which is why I topped up, and to secure more dividend while the price is low. At current time, one might say mine was "expensively bought" like Tesco or Lloyds.

The scars of previous similar occasions do rather follow one around, and if PHP collapsed or were taken over at a silly price, everyone would round on us and point out that it was "obvious" that something was wrong as the share price had been falling for a long time.

The slings and arrows of "smart Alecs" is something we have to trade for being transparent and helpful to others.

Arb.

[idpickering]

Thanks for your comments, Dod, and at present I do have faith in the PHP business - which is why I topped up, and to secure more dividend while the price is low. At current time, one might say mine was "expensively bought" like Tesco or Lloyds.

The scars of previous similar occasions do rather follow one around, and if PHP collapsed or were taken over at a silly price, everyone would round on us and point out that it was "obvious" that something was wrong as the share price had been falling for a long time.

The slings and arrows of "smart Alecs" is something we have to trade for being transparent and helpful to others.

Arb.

Great post Arb. I couldn’t agree more, especially with your later point.

Ian,

[Arborbridge]

Well, it's been a sleepy old year for my HYP until recently, with the previous top ups being as long ago as March. These were PHP and Woodside.
Recently Pennon and VOD have been sold - a controversial decision, but it's done now. As a result, I have been able to make a couple of further top-ups of D S Smith and Abdn. These choices were the most appropriate available in the particular broker account in which there was cash.

After these changes, this is the top 15 shares by rank:-



Woodside is a small holding which could be topped up when cash is available. The rest will have to jostle for cash depending which account they are in and according to my usual top up guidelines.

Arb.

[Dod101]

Just noticed. Is HSBC actually yielding 8.10% ?
I will do my calculations on 1 January and my yield calculation will be based on the price at year end and the actual dividends paid in the year.

Good that you have exited Vodafone but why do you not do ditto with say Lloyds?

Some very attractive yields on offer at the moment. BAT at over 10%? Despite my reservations about them that sort of yield is very tempting and it is difficult to see much more downside in the share price at least in the short term.

Dod

[Arborbridge]

Just noticed. Is HSBC actually yielding 8.10% ?
I will do my calculations on 1 January and my yield calculation will be based on the price at year end and the actual dividends paid in the year.

Good that you have exited Vodafone but why do you not do ditto with say Lloyds?

Some very attractive yields on offer at the moment. BAT at over 10%? Despite my reservations about them that sort of yield is very tempting and it is difficult to see much more downside in the share price at least in the short term.

Dod

I take some of those yields with a pinch of salt until, that is, I'm serious about buying - then I would check them. THese yields are automatically downloaded, so there are sometimes glitches, but not so as to bee too disturbing

As regards Lloyds: that made me chuckle. I've just had members of the community on my back for ditching VOD - if I ditched Lloyds for no good reason too I would be keel-hauled

Lloyds is beyond a joke, but actually it is back to paying dividends and with one of the best covers - I don't really see much advantage in selling it now and it looks like it will carry on paying my income. The "expensively bought" part has already happened and I think there's a good chance that it will become less expensively bought as time goes by. That's my story anyway

BATs yield (if true) is in the "avoid" territory, some might say. Am I the only person who can say he invested in BAT ten years ago and is still underwater? Maybe I should chuck some more capital at it

Arb.

[funduffer]

Just noticed. Is HSBC actually yielding 8.10% ?


Dod

Dod, I think the yield forecast is screwed up by the fact HSBC are part way reverting from 2 to 4 dividends per year.

This financial year they will have paid 3 dividends at $0.1, with the final to come in April. If we assume the final is also $0.1, that would be $0.4 for the year, which at £1 = $1.26 gives a total dividend in £ of 31.75p. (Compare this to last year's final of $0.23 or 18.5p when HSBC only paid 2 dividends in the year)

At todays share price of £6.17, that gives a current yield of about 5.1%.

I expect the forecast dividend would be not much different to this if it was estimated properly.

FD

[kempiejon]

This financial year they will have paid 3 dividends at $0.1, with the final to come in April. If we assume the final is also $0.1, that would be $0.4 for the year, which at £1 = $1.26 gives a total dividend in £ of 31.75p. (Compare this to last year's final of $0.23 or 18.5p when HSBC only paid 2 dividends in the year)

At todays share price of £6.17, that gives a current yield of about 5.1%.

I expect the forecast dividend would be not much different to this if it was estimated properly.

I'm a bit more optimistic. https://lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=633402#p633402

They look on track to return my income to pre cut high last seen in 2018 51¢ for the year. That does depend on the final being 21¢ rather than the 3 preceding 10¢. That would see a 6.5% odd yield.

in the years when they did quarterlies the 4th would tend to be larger. 2015-2018 it was 3 x 10¢ with 21¢ for the 4th.
https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... ?epic=HSBA

[Dod101]

Thanks for these comments. I would imagine the fourth dividend will be more than 10c but they would need to be very confident for it to be 21c surely. Anyway they are one of the early reporters of their annual figures so we will soon know.

Dod

[funduffer]

This financial year they will have paid 3 dividends at $0.1, with the final to come in April. If we assume the final is also $0.1, that would be $0.4 for the year, which at £1 = $1.26 gives a total dividend in £ of 31.75p. (Compare this to last year's final of $0.23 or 18.5p when HSBC only paid 2 dividends in the year)

At todays share price of £6.17, that gives a current yield of about 5.1%.

I expect the forecast dividend would be not much different to this if it was estimated properly.

I'm a bit more optimistic. https://lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=633402#p633402

They look on track to return my income to pre cut high last seen in 2018 51¢ for the year. That does depend on the final being 21¢ rather than the 3 preceding 10¢. That would see a 6.5% odd yield.

in the years when they did quarterlies the 4th would tend to be larger. 2015-2018 it was 3 x 10¢ with 21¢ for the 4th.
https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... ?epic=HSBA

Thanks for that, I am a bit more optimistic now!

FD

[Arborbridge]

....it's been a while, but I have some cash to invest and it's a cheap dealing day coming up at A J Bell.

Here's the latest topup ranking of my HYP - top 12 shares shown only.



Woodside is top and the obvious front runner. Lloyds is excluded on grounds of % on cost (+*) CSN on both cost and income provided, HSBC(*) already OTT for income as is BAT and IMB. Unlike Terry, the income limit is a bit soft for me - if a share has been dependable, I'll go over the 5%, but HSBC is quite high.

Then the next question which dictates is: which eligible shares are in the A J Bell account?
That brings the choice to Aviva, Sainsbury, WPP and UKW. Av. I shall byepass for the moment - it's income record is a serial non-performer. THe same goes for SBRY, though I'm tempted.
That leaves WPP and UKW. WPP has been rebuilding its dividend since it fell out of bed, so I'm inclined to give it the benefit of the doubt. UKW has the better - though shorter- dividend record but the share price has been dropping like a stone. Bearing this in mind, I shall sit on my hands with this one until I feel the situtation has steadied.

Where does that leave me? In no man's land for yet another month? Maybe - but I'll think on it.

Woodside will probably receive a topup on the next Halifax cheap day, though.

[tjh290633]

Where did Sainsbury come from? It's not on your top-up list?

TJH

[kempiejon]

Where did Sainsbury come from? It's not on your top-up list?

TJH

And doesn't it's shaky income history have overtones of AV. too? Several cuts in the pre covid time. I was lured by the strong history in 2010,11&12, then I got a job with them so excluded from extra investment, then the cuts.