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HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 8:29 am
by MrFoolish
Moderator Message:This off-topic discussion split off from
here. - Chris
Arborbridge wrote: As you say, there is an enormous amount of work involved in these projects and I'm frankly not surprised Pyad therefore discontinued the task if he lacked the neceesary motivation or purpose. Particularly, as it is thankless if ulitmately all you get is sniping from the gallery!
Arb
You are forgetting that sniping from the gallery has been banned. We have to go into a different building to "snipe" (and I'd call it "discuss"). Whatever next on a discussion board?
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 9:30 am
by dealtn
Arborbridge wrote:kempiejon wrote:
Never mind in another 10 years or 20 when it finally succumbs to the risk of investing in shares a gang of told-you-so's will be right. Like they were with that poor Mr. JimSusan or will be with pastcaring.
Yes, if you wait long enough, I guess those that wish to will have a moment in the sun when they can claim it hasn't worked.
When you think about it, Pyad was unusual in that he nailed his colours to the mast without having
proof that it would work, and set HYP1 just as proof of principle. Quite extraordinary compared with what most people have done, which is often limited to the back testing of a dummy portfolio.
Arb.
I'm not strictly speaking allowed to post here according to the Board guidelines, but i'm sorry, even on this board you can't let statements like that pass - even if only to educate other readers.
Proof that a concept works via a single experiment isn't possible and it is dangerous to place reliance on it. Similarly multi-variant backtesting of dummy portfolios - assuming you strip out multi forms of bias (similar to the legitimate issues around HYP1, or any single portfolio experiment) is a far superior statistical "proof".
In the spirit of education can I recommend the book "The Art of Thinking Clearly" by Rolf Dobelli. Its quite small - and even chapter 1 is enough to make the point - and it will take a lot less than 23 years to see the results.
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 9:34 am
by Arborbridge
MrFoolish wrote:Arborbridge wrote: As you say, there is an enormous amount of work involved in these projects and I'm frankly not surprised Pyad therefore discontinued the task if he lacked the neceesary motivation or purpose. Particularly, as it is thankless if ulitmately all you get is sniping from the gallery!
Arb
You are forgetting that sniping from the gallery has been banned. We have to go into a different building to "snipe" (and I'd call it "discuss"). Whatever next on a discussion board?
I sometimes get lost and don't know which building I've wandered into. Perils of old age
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 9:35 am
by Arborbridge
dealtn wrote:
In the spirit of education can I recommend the book "The Art of Thinking Clearly" by Rolf Dobelli. Its quite small - and even chapter 1 is enough to make the point - and it will take a lot less than 23 years to see the results.
I agree that's an excellent book. I also agree with you other comments. Although there is only one HYP1, there are other HYPs which you should not ignore, including those run in real time by Ian Hughes.
We should also note that some of the TR example are mostly not in real time but are back tested, which as you say is never the same. That's why I quite like HYP, because of all the various ideas I tried, it was the only one that carried on working after I had invested real cash!
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 11:53 am
by kempiejon
Arborbridge wrote:I sometimes get lost and don't know which building I've wandered into. Perils of old age
Did we move or is that my dodderage coming through?
Arborbridge wrote:That's why I quite like HYP, because of all the various ideas I tried, it was the only one that carried on working after I had invested real cash!
I remember the value boards, a precursor to the HYP on TMF and taking onboard some of the ideas there. When I compared it to my own investing - previously all tracker just buy with the ISA annual allowance each year - I found the discussion around researching individual shares a pleasing intellectual exercise. Starting with my own money really ramped up the stress. Yeah it worked but it was hard work and distressing.
I liked HYP as it was simpler and it as easy to see results - dividends would hit the account a few months later. Value was mostly watching my shares prices fall and having to hold my nerve or decide I was wrong and bail making a loss. When do you sell how much profit is enough is that all there is? Where's the money going next? Buying to collect dividends much easier.
I have a little pot of value shares, probably make a couple of decisions a year but much calmer with my HYP portfolio.
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 1:30 pm
by Lootman
Arborbridge wrote:MrFoolish wrote:You are forgetting that sniping from the gallery has been banned. We have to go into a different building to "snipe" (and I'd call it "discuss"). Whatever next on a discussion board?
I sometimes get lost and don't know which building I've wandered into. Perils of old age
Me too. I navigate the site using the "New Posts" pull-down and so often do not see/notice which board it is on. Plus topics sometimes switch board, as this one has done.
But more generally if someone posts a review of their portfolio, whether pyad or anyone else, real or imaginary. HY or not, then we have to be allowed to criticise it. The idea that you can say something nice about it but cannot say something critical is unhelpfully introducing a skewed perspective. How can anyone learn if their mistakes are never pointed out?
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 1:59 pm
by Charlottesquare
Lootman wrote:Arborbridge wrote:I sometimes get lost and don't know which building I've wandered into. Perils of old age
Me too. I navigate the site using the "New Posts" pull-down and so often do not see/notice which board it is on. Plus topics sometimes switch board, as this one has done.
But more generally if someone posts a review of their portfolio, whether pyad or anyone else, real or imaginary. HY or not, then we have to be allowed to criticise it. The idea that you can say something nice about it but cannot say something critical is unhelpfully introducing a skewed perspective. How can anyone learn if their mistakes are never pointed out?
Even if not mistakes, the discussion itself sharpens thoughts, helps one observe from different angles etc.
Afraid on these sites I do sometimes feel a bit like an Anabaptist in 16th century Europe ,so now rarely, if ever, post on HYPP
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 2:26 pm
by BullDog
Lootman wrote:Arborbridge wrote:I sometimes get lost and don't know which building I've wandered into. Perils of old age
Me too. I navigate the site using the "New Posts" pull-down and so often do not see/notice which board it is on. Plus topics sometimes switch board, as this one has done.
But more generally if someone posts a review of their portfolio, whether pyad or anyone else, real or imaginary. HY or not, then we have to be allowed to criticise it. The idea that you can say something nice about it but cannot say something critical is unhelpfully introducing a skewed perspective. How can anyone learn if their mistakes are never pointed out?
Don't overlook that in the practical sub forum, criticism isn't allowed and mistakes cannot be pointed out. It's quite ridiculous of course, but that's what was requested and implemented. It's perfectly OK to criticise here though and I hope that counter balances the other sub forum. At least to an extent.
I use the new posts button, I'm seldom aware which of the many sub forums I'm on. There's far too many of them.
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 2:43 pm
by Arborbridge
Charlottesquare wrote:Lootman wrote:Me too. I navigate the site using the "New Posts" pull-down and so often do not see/notice which board it is on. Plus topics sometimes switch board, as this one has done.
But more generally if someone posts a review of their portfolio, whether pyad or anyone else, real or imaginary. HY or not, then we have to be allowed to criticise it. The idea that you can say something nice about it but cannot say something critical is unhelpfully introducing a skewed perspective. How can anyone learn if their mistakes are never pointed out?
Even if not mistakes, the discussion itself sharpens thoughts, helps one observe from different angles etc.
Afraid on these sites I do sometimes feel a bit like an Anabaptist in 16th century Europe ,so now rarely, if ever, post on HYPP
Are we in danger of forgetting why we needed two boards for HY? We went through a period when we had a band of trolls picking holes at every turn - and I don't mean useful discussion, I mean being difficult for the sake of it. I also remember the HYSS producing jolly threads of a hundred posts and more discussing how many angels one could get on the head of a pin, would not have had much point on the HYPP board.
Discussion is fine, but when it comes to sniping it's not so great and gets us nowhere. I don't believe it's a question of only saying something nice as Lootman says, but there's little point in having a board to discuss HYP specifically and then find people saying it's all a terrible idea and shouldn't we all be doing something else. It's like joining a snooker club and constantly pointing out that squash is much better for you. It probably is, but I came here to play snooker, thanks.
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 2:44 pm
by moorfield
Rather ironic this given that HYPP has been 80% a one man RNS retweeting service for the last two years - let's be brutally honest about that. (And isn't it supposed to ignore market comment?) Periodically it's raison detre needs to be examined, now might be an appropriate time for Mods to do again?
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 2:50 pm
by kempiejon
Arborbridge wrote: It's like joining a snooker club and constantly pointing out that squash is much better for you. It probably is, but I came here to play snooker, thanks.
I never understood why anyone would want to play snooker, why not just shut all the snooker clubs. Squash is OK but what about badminton, they would prosper without snooker and those snooker players are fools to themselves and would be better off playing racket sports. Anything other than snooker is better, it's so dull.
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 2:58 pm
by 88V8
kempiejon wrote:Arborbridge wrote: It's like joining a snooker club and constantly pointing out that squash is much better for you. It probably is, but I came here to play snooker, thanks.
Anything other than snooker is better, it's so dull.
Not if the (female) players are wearing hot pants.
Gets one thinking about strategies.
V8
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 2:58 pm
by Lootman
moorfield wrote:Rather ironic this given that HYPP has been 80% a one man RNS retweeting service for the last two years - let's be brutally honest about that. (And isn't it supposed to ignore market comment?) Periodically it's raison detre needs to be examined, now might be an appropriate time for Mods to do again?
To be fair to HYPP, it is the most active TLF board, with nearly 50,000 posts to date.
Although my sense is that much of that was in the earlier days of TLF, and it does seem that interest has dropped off, for a variety of reasons.
I suggested when TLF started that we just have a single board called Dividend Investing. But in the end TLF just inherited the two boards that has been controversially set up on TMF.
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 3:12 pm
by moorfield
Lootman wrote:To be fair to HYPP, it is the most active TLF board, with nearly 50,000 posts to date.
Although my sense is that much of that was in the earlier days of TLF, and it does seem that interest has dropped off, for a variety of reasons.
I suggested when TLF started that we just have a single board called Dividend Investing. But in the end TLF just inherited the two boards that has been controversially set up on TMF.
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 3:55 pm
by Arborbridge
BullDog wrote:Lootman wrote:Me too. I navigate the site using the "New Posts" pull-down and so often do not see/notice which board it is on. Plus topics sometimes switch board, as this one has done.
But more generally if someone posts a review of their portfolio, whether pyad or anyone else, real or imaginary. HY or not, then we have to be allowed to criticise it. The idea that you can say something nice about it but cannot say something critical is unhelpfully introducing a skewed perspective. How can anyone learn if their mistakes are never pointed out?
Don't overlook that in the practical sub forum, criticism isn't allowed and mistakes cannot be pointed out. It's quite ridiculous of course, but that's what was requested and implemented. It's perfectly OK to criticise here though and I hope that counter balances the other sub forum. At least to an extent.
I use the new posts button, I'm seldom aware which of the many sub forums I'm on. There's far too many of them.
I don't know why you think criticism isn't allowed or that mistakes cannot be pointed out - neither of those is true.
If you mean criticism in the sense of "HYP is a load of rubbish, so don't bother" - well, probably not. But why come into a room to discuss HYP if you aren't interested
And as for mistakes - I've had plenty pointed out to me on the HYPP board.
Arb.
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 3:57 pm
by Arborbridge
kempiejon wrote:Arborbridge wrote: It's like joining a snooker club and constantly pointing out that squash is much better for you. It probably is, but I came here to play snooker, thanks.
I never understood why anyone would want to play snooker, why not just shut all the snooker clubs. Squash is OK but what about badminton, they would prosper without snooker and those snooker players are fools to themselves and would be better off playing racket sports. Anything other than snooker is better, it's so dull.
You are obviously immune to the tension!
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 4:01 pm
by Arborbridge
moorfield wrote:
If you have anything to say, you could alter the balance
I haven't written so much over the summer simply because I haven't bought or sold since March so there's not much decision making going on. Maybe other people are in the same position - the HYP just trundles along, but I can hardly keep saying that every day.
Arb.
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 5:44 pm
by Charlottesquare
Arborbridge wrote:Charlottesquare wrote:
Even if not mistakes, the discussion itself sharpens thoughts, helps one observe from different angles etc.
Afraid on these sites I do sometimes feel a bit like an Anabaptist in 16th century Europe ,so now rarely, if ever, post on HYPP
Are we in danger of forgetting why we needed two boards for HY? We went through a period when we had a band of trolls picking holes at every turn - and I don't mean useful discussion, I mean being difficult for the sake of it. I also remember the HYSS producing jolly threads of a hundred posts and more discussing how many angels one could get on the head of a pin, would not have had much point on the HYPP board.
Discussion is fine, but when it comes to sniping it's not so great and gets us nowhere. I don't believe it's a question of only saying something nice as Lootman says, but there's little point in having a board to discuss HYP specifically and then find people saying it's all a terrible idea and shouldn't we all be doing something else. It's like joining a snooker club and constantly pointing out that squash is much better for you. It probably is, but I came here to play snooker, thanks.
On HYPP that is however not how it has gone, no discussion beyond the original approach is tolerated, hence why the only discussions there these days seem to be " here is my portfolio" and "have you considered this share" etc. Accordingly in total little discussion and that board is slowly dying. Appreciate why some may have wanted the division but really, for those who maybe invest for high yield but not as stipulated, it is now a no go area.
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 5:46 pm
by MrFoolish
Arborbridge wrote:Are we in danger of forgetting why we needed two boards for HY? We went through a period when we had a band of trolls picking holes at every turn - and I don't mean useful discussion, I mean being difficult for the sake of it. I also remember the HYSS producing jolly threads of a hundred posts and more discussing how many angels one could get on the head of a pin, would not have had much point on the HYPP board.
Most of those arguments broke out because somebody would complain about "non HYP shares" (usually investment trusts) being discussed or somebody would complain that a post should have been made elsewhere. A bit more live-and-let-live and tolerance for other opinions would have avoided these arguments IMO.
Re: HYP1 - Sniping from the gallery
Posted: November 29th, 2023, 9:00 pm
by moorfield
Arborbridge wrote:moorfield wrote:If you have anything to say, you could alter the balance
I have done and I do, regularly, as you know.
Ok then I'll bite:
Look we are all in these two places fundamentally in the same business of earning a high and rising income through indolent exposure to equities' dividends. It's that simple. Why should a specific implementation of be more or less special than another? Neither will ever win an argument or consensus over t'other, even after another 23 years. All the two boards continue to do despite Mods' efforts is foster a division which is ultimately pointless, a waste of everyone's time and energy - and, possibly, wealth - and myopic.
Lootman is right I think, a single board ("High Yield Dividend Investing" my thought) begins to make more sense now. Counter-intuitively perhaps, I think a lot of "sniping" etc. might drop away with everyone occupying the same space and travelling in the same direction, albeit by differing routes. Perhaps the Mods should run a poll to settle the question? I can't remember if one was ever done before. If they won't then perhaps in Gengulphusian spirit someone here could run a "pre poll" to encourage them to. If I get 20 recs on this by tomorrow pm I'll do it myself!