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Is recession looming?

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Nimrod103
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Re: Is recession looming?

#636583

Postby Nimrod103 » December 28th, 2023, 9:26 am

funduffer wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
There is a limit to the amount of debt which countries can build up, and many western countries including the USA are now approaching it. It will be interesting and not a little nerve wracking to see how much more debt we can take on.

Without recourse to further debt, governments can only bribe the electorate by paying Peter (their supporters) by taxing Paul (their ideological enemies).


Debt as a % of GDP - USA 110%, Japan 214%, so USA nowhere near any limit.

If you want the main influences on GDP growth - then they are, in my opinion low birthrate/increasing longevity, climate change and inequality.

Low birthrate can be fixed by increasing immigration - as Japan are finding out

Climate change will need public investment, particularly in renewables, which improve energy self-sufficiency. Food security will become a problem and UK is in a poor position.

Inequality can be fixed by progressive taxation policies - call it socialism if you like. Too much wealth in the hands of the few will lead to civil strife and does nothing to promote growth. Trickle down has never worked.

FD


The debt limit for a country depends on who holds that debt. Japan gets away with its high debt because it is held domestically, with a culture that encourages domestic savings. The USA probably has headroom because it issues the World's dominant currency, and is the World's most productive economy. How much more borrowing can the UK do? We may soon find out.

GDP growth depends a lot on the cost of energy. The UK has electricity costs 75% higher than the USA, combined with an anti-investment culture. No wonder it is cheaper to import immigrants instead of increasing automation. Wind power may give us electricity self sufficiency (when the wind blows), but don't let us fool ourselves that it is cheap.

Food security is not an issue while we can still import avocados. But should the need arise, I am sure we can change our diet to one of turnips and potatoes. The main issue is just the sheer number of unproductive mouths we have to feed here.

Too much wealth in the hands of a few leads to greater investment and greater productivity. That is what happened in the Industrial Revolution. Spreading the money around just leads to more people who prefer and can eat avocados when they should be eating potatoes.

Mike4
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Re: Is recession looming?

#636591

Postby Mike4 » December 28th, 2023, 10:13 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
GDP growth depends a lot on the cost of energy. The UK has electricity costs 75% higher than the USA,


THIS needs unpacking and examining.

As I understand it, the price of electricity in the UK is unconnected with the cost of production, but pegged to the price of gas. There may be good historical reasons for this but as we slowly switch to renewables and nuclear, it needs reconsidering and I see no sign of that happening.

servodude
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Re: Is recession looming?

#636595

Postby servodude » December 28th, 2023, 10:38 am

Mike4 wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
GDP growth depends a lot on the cost of energy. The UK has electricity costs 75% higher than the USA,


THIS needs unpacking and examining.

As I understand it, the price of electricity in the UK is unconnected with the cost of production, but pegged to the price of gas. There may be good historical reasons for this but as we slowly switch to renewables and nuclear, it needs reconsidering and I see no sign of that happening.


Bingo.
The prices to the consumer (including industry) here are helluva artificial and designed to pluck the goose more as the actual costs of production are falling drastically.
Unless you have your own hypothecated supply from renewables you are not getting the benefit from the decades of advancement in technology - and are being exploited to shore up retrograde and legacy companies and market models

Oggy
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Re: Is recession looming?

#636613

Postby Oggy » December 28th, 2023, 11:55 am

Renewables are of course a scam. Not only are they heavily subsidised by the taxpayer, the promised benefits in terms of lower prices have not materialized. The old chestnut trotted out by energy companies that the price of electricity is based on gas is total BS considering most electricity is now generated by wind - up to 70% of it these last few weeks.

Rip off Britain strikes again and HMG does nothing.

funduffer
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Re: Is recession looming?

#636656

Postby funduffer » December 28th, 2023, 3:28 pm

Oggy wrote:Renewables are of course a scam. Not only are they heavily subsidised by the taxpayer, the promised benefits in terms of lower prices have not materialized. The old chestnut trotted out by energy companies that the price of electricity is based on gas is total BS considering most electricity is now generated by wind - up to 70% of it these last few weeks.

Rip off Britain strikes again and HMG does nothing.


I am afraid you need to better understand how electricity is priced, as you are far away from reality. Try this simple explanation:

https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com ... ty-pricing

FD

Oggy
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Re: Is recession looming?

#636667

Postby Oggy » December 28th, 2023, 3:59 pm

The price is still broadly related to the price of gas - as others have pointed out. The pricing philosophy outlined in your link is also deliberately opaque and needs to reflect the lower prices we were all promised and is made possible as a result of generating electricity by renewables.

We are not seeing the cost benefits. All of us are being ripped off....again.

Nimrod103
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Re: Is recession looming?

#636700

Postby Nimrod103 » December 28th, 2023, 5:46 pm

funduffer wrote:Try this simple explanation:

https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com ... ty-pricing

FD


Quite interesting summary, but worth also reading the two comments afterwards for how the renewable industry costs are inflated. I'm also not clear as to whether gas and coal generating costs are forced up by the need to buy carbon credits.

LucasMorro
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Re: Is recession looming?

#662128

Postby LucasMorro » Today, 9:35 am

Energy and general commodity prices can indeed have a significant impact on the economy and lead to a recession. However, as you noted, the causes of recessions are always multifaceted, and it is important to consider several factors. It should not be forgotten that economic policies and measures taken by relevant authorities can also have a significant impact on the direction of economic development.

y0rkiebar
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Re: Is recession looming?

#662132

Postby y0rkiebar » Today, 9:48 am

LucasMorro wrote:Energy and general commodity prices can indeed have a significant impact on the economy and lead to a recession. However, as you noted, the causes of recessions are always multifaceted, and it is important to consider several factors. It should not be forgotten that economic policies and measures taken by relevant authorities can also have a significant impact on the direction of economic development.


Bot.

GoSeigen
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Re: Is recession looming?

#662134

Postby GoSeigen » Today, 9:54 am

Please report the user. I've reported @LucasMorro but it seems the mods did nothing about it. If more people complain maybe something will be done.

Posting on stale threads too -- it's really annoying.

GS

stevensfo
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Re: Is recession looming?

#662141

Postby stevensfo » Today, 11:01 am

GoSeigen wrote:Please report the user. I've reported @LucasMorro but it seems the mods did nothing about it. If more people complain maybe something will be done.

Posting on stale threads too -- it's really annoying.

GS


Calm down. Yes, it's probably a bot, but we're all grown-up enough to cope with it.

Re. posting on stale threads, I think that it's often a great idea. To come back to a discussion after a few years can be quite helpful, since we have more history, experience and context in which to continue the discussion.


Steve

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Re: Is recession looming?

#662145

Postby puffster » Today, 11:55 am

stevensfo wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:Please report the user. I've reported @LucasMorro but it seems the mods did nothing about it. If more people complain maybe something will be done.

Posting on stale threads too -- it's really annoying.

GS

Calm down. Yes, it's probably a bot, but we're all grown-up enough to cope with it.

Re. posting on stale threads, I think that it's often a great idea. To come back to a discussion after a few years can be quite helpful, since we have more history, experience and context in which to continue the discussion.

Steve

The trouble is more and more bots are appearing. If you don't deal with them early TLF will be overrun. I reported LM after the first post and nothing was done about it.

Regards, Puffster

Mike4
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Re: Is recession looming?

#662155

Postby Mike4 » Today, 12:27 pm

puffster wrote:
stevensfo wrote:Calm down. Yes, it's probably a bot, but we're all grown-up enough to cope with it.

Re. posting on stale threads, I think that it's often a great idea. To come back to a discussion after a few years can be quite helpful, since we have more history, experience and context in which to continue the discussion.

Steve

The trouble is more and more bots are appearing. If you don't deal with them early TLF will be overrun. I reported LM after the first post and nothing was done about it.

Regards, Puffster


And asking members to report suspected bots is not going to work unless we get some feedback. Even if a botty-looking post turns out to be a human being, failing to tell us just looks like our report was ignored. The next step will be on-board discussion of bot issues, which Team Mod has asked us not to do.

Oh....


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