#612519
Postby 1nvest » September 1st, 2023, 12:50 pm
Looks to me that those proclaiming house prices crash (of -5%, from prior extreme highs such as +13% gains being reported a year ago), job losses ...etc. are more a case of just talking the talk.
As/when the digital Pound is imposed, so might that also weaken what control/influence the central bank has over things. Alongside digital Pounds, that the state can control what/where you spend etc., so also will 'better' alternatives tend to rise and be more commonly preferred. Potentially ending up with digital Pounds predominate use only being as a quick means of exchange, between being paid benefits or paying taxes in digital pounds, and exchanging the rest for Google-coins or whatever (made up digital currency). Where google-coins aren't inclined to lose purchase power (via inflation - which is just another form of taxation), and may very well instead increase in purchase power, and where they're more portable - Spanish holiday and ... look a bottle of beer is only 2 google-coins here when we're paying 4 at home in the UK.
The UK media however continue to talk down the UK, are suggesting house prices crashing, unemployment rising, Pound crashing ....etc. Largely supported by Civil Servants who also would prefer that the UK rejoined the EU. On the ground however and whilst we've seen a Ukraine war dip, such that the likes of safe Index Linked Gilts are now priced to around 1% real yields, the suggestion to take from that is if safe are paying a small real yield, then so might riskier assets see higher/better rewards to come. Perhaps in another year stocks, house prices etc. will have turned the corner and be seeing significant gains. Some see recent stocks/house prices at potential relative lows - which in turn is a resistance to further declines. I'd also imagine that there is political will to have pain now, and a return to good times in a year or so ... in order to align with a general election.
There's a lot of surplus cash out there, all too willing to jump in and 'invest' that - as others have indicated, some 'regular' houses going for sale are selling very quickly. I suspect the ones that are slower to sell are the former rental housing, as the state seems intent on driving landlords out of the market - which is inclined to drive rents up even higher.