Search found 142 matches

by Bubblesofearth
November 18th, 2019, 10:33 am
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: Dividend Yield on FTSE 100
Replies: 52
Views: 1631

Re: Dividend Yield on FTSE 100

What is an intriguing thought is that if it were possible to step into a time machine, and create HYPs each year for the last fifty years or so and today know the outcome, I am almost certain that a pattern of mean reversion would be shown. Mean reversion is IMO a fallacy that leads to risky invest...
by Bubblesofearth
November 16th, 2019, 1:38 pm
Forum: High Yield Portfolios (HYP) - Practical
Topic: HYP1 is 19 - thread discussing income and capital diversification
Replies: 51
Views: 1597

Re: HYP1 is 19 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

wizard Of course HYP1 is a single portfolio example. But in science if you have some data, or an observation, that looks interesting you might formulate a hypothesis and then look for more data/observations that support or refute that hypothesis in order to arrive at a more robust theory. What I'm s...
by Bubblesofearth
November 16th, 2019, 11:59 am
Forum: High Yield Portfolios (HYP) - Practical
Topic: HYP1 is 19 - thread discussing income and capital diversification
Replies: 51
Views: 1597

Re: HYP1 is 19 - thread discussing income and capital diversification

Only on here could there be a discussion about this portfolio without consideration of how it has managed to give a performance so vastly in excess of the FTSE 100 from which it was derived. There are fund managers out there who would give their eye teeth for, and be praised to the rafters for, such...
by Bubblesofearth
October 3rd, 2019, 9:14 pm
Forum: Retirement Investing (inc FIRE)
Topic: Thinking of retiring early @55
Replies: 22
Views: 4206

Re: Thinking of retiring early @55

The biggest 'problem' you face is being the richest people in the graveyard! Seriously, what on earth are you going to be spending £70k per year on?? Genuine question. We are retired in our late 50's on half that income and consider ourselves well off, able to travel etc. How much consumption can tw...
by Bubblesofearth
August 13th, 2019, 7:48 am
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: Sell or not sell
Replies: 84
Views: 5536

Re: Sell or not sell

2. £1000 income from 29 different shares and £10,000 income from the other one. The point at issue is that you don't allow it to reach that stage. Risk and reward are related. Increase risk and you increase reward and the converse. But if finance for your living expenses is heavily dependent on the...
by Bubblesofearth
August 12th, 2019, 8:38 am
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: Sell or not sell
Replies: 84
Views: 5536

Re: Sell or not sell

Let me ask you a question - would you prefer to have £10,000 in each of 30 shares OR £10,000 in each of 29 shares and £100,000 in the other one The idea of HYP1 was income rather than value. So the question really should be whether you were happy with £ 1000 income from each of 29 shares and £ 10,0...
by Bubblesofearth
August 11th, 2019, 5:44 pm
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: Sell or not sell
Replies: 84
Views: 5536

Re: Sell or not sell

Did anyone at that time pick up HYP1's increasing reliance on tobacco for returns? Let me ask you a question - would you prefer to have £10,000 in each of 30 shares OR £10,000 in each of 29 shares and £100,000 in the other one? IMO if you continuously sell down any shares that outperform then you w...
by Bubblesofearth
August 10th, 2019, 9:21 pm
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: Sell or not sell
Replies: 84
Views: 5536

Re: Sell or not sell

The cost I am talking about occurs as a result of deliberately foregoing dividend growth that would otherwise create the over-concentration, which is apparently the worry. Unless you have a reliable crystal ball that tells you which will be the better performer, you are just halving, say, one divid...
by Bubblesofearth
August 9th, 2019, 8:44 am
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: what I have learnt...
Replies: 10
Views: 3406

Re: what I have learnt...

My HYP approach has been fairly vanilla and encompassing a fair share of disasters and near misses on the way, but on the whole a pretty typical HYP. Yet here is a portfolio apparently producing a TR of almost three times the rate of my HYP and at the top end of similar ITs. We need to find out why...
by Bubblesofearth
July 29th, 2019, 10:11 am
Forum: High Yield Portfolios (HYP) - Practical
Topic: AstraZeneca: Where Has All the Cash Gone?
Replies: 82
Views: 7176

Re: AstraZeneca: Where Has All the Cash Gone?

Sarcasm not needed. I took it simply as a report of what had happened rather than taking any particular credit for sound judgement. Dod knows there's an amount of luck involved. Arb. Luck need not be involved. If you buy a well diversified portfolio of shares and leave it alone then one or two of t...
by Bubblesofearth
July 25th, 2019, 9:25 am
Forum: High Yield Portfolios (HYP) - Practical
Topic: AstraZeneca: Where Has All the Cash Gone?
Replies: 82
Views: 7176

Re: AstraZeneca: Where Has All the Cash Gone?

I had to laugh when I read the following in ADVFN's morning bulletin: "AstraZeneca ticked down even as the pharmaceuticals giant said it had secured three new drug approvals in Japan", but "On the upside, housebuilder Berkeley Group was on the front foot. Although it posted a 20.7% d...
by Bubblesofearth
June 6th, 2019, 6:53 pm
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works
Replies: 179
Views: 5734

Re: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works

I think it's crucial to understanding your position, for me anyway. Without having worked it out, the boundaries of your position look very fuzzy. At the moment it seems the advice not to sell only applies to those who have and wish to hold a position in equities. That allows for a lot of exception...
by Bubblesofearth
June 6th, 2019, 8:15 am
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works
Replies: 179
Views: 5734

Re: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works

That's only an answer to the second part of the question. I am trying to understand who you concluded can legitimately sell shares. Is it only those who no longer want to hold shares at all? Or are there other kinds of shareholders who can sell them? People who want to reduce their allocation perha...
by Bubblesofearth
June 6th, 2019, 8:06 am
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works
Replies: 179
Views: 5734

Re: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works

Only if you are prepared to carry the risk. Whilst for different reasons other than growth it is pretty simple to meet in Edinburgh the ex HBOS or RBOS employee who never quite got around to diversification and is having a somewhat less affluent retirement than they believed would be the case twelv...
by Bubblesofearth
June 5th, 2019, 9:23 pm
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works
Replies: 179
Views: 5734

Re: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works

performance (both capital and income) is driven by a relatively small number of component companies. No doubt that is typical, and is the basis of the "let your winners run" mantra that you often hear from traders and investors. At the same time if you take that to its logical conclusion ...
by Bubblesofearth
June 5th, 2019, 9:01 pm
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works
Replies: 179
Views: 5734

Re: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works

So in your studies who [what classes of shareholders of a company] did you identify who could legitimately sell shares without harming their interests? And which are the classes of people that fit into your above conclusion -- who should never sell their shares? GS I'm talking about individuals who...
by Bubblesofearth
June 5th, 2019, 9:51 am
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works
Replies: 179
Views: 5734

Re: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works

There is nothing inherently wrong with the concept of an investment maturing -- even the "commission" is negligible if sensibly managed. In fact most bonds enforce maturity on the creditor so that the selling decision is baked in at the moment of purchase, even if inaction is the policy. ...
by Bubblesofearth
June 5th, 2019, 9:45 am
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works
Replies: 179
Views: 5734

Re: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works

I'm simply saying that I don't believe trimming winning share holdings is going to improve overall returns or reduce portfolio risk. Now that's an opinion. You're entitled to it. But do you assert that it is in any way true? Or is it just a zen thing, or faith? All the evidence I've looked at has l...
by Bubblesofearth
June 4th, 2019, 6:10 pm
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works
Replies: 179
Views: 5734

Re: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works

There is nothing inherently wrong with the concept of an investment maturing -- even the "commission" is negligible if sensibly managed. In fact most bonds enforce maturity on the creditor so that the selling decision is baked in at the moment of purchase, even if inaction is the policy. ...
by Bubblesofearth
June 4th, 2019, 9:44 am
Forum: High Yield Shares & Strategies - general
Topic: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works
Replies: 179
Views: 5734

Re: Whether HYP (as defined in the guidelines) works

... set a limit on holding value and initially set it at10%, later modifying that to twice the median holding value and later still to 1.5 times the median, when there were over 30 holdings and the value had risen considerably. It takes a lot of self-discipline to trim one's winners. Especially whe...

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