The Lemon Fool

scotview wrote:

GoSeigen wrote:Thanks for the level-headed assessment from your own experience.
The above point was interesting to me: why did you not simply remove your crypto from the exchange and keep it offline (under the mattress so to speak)?
GS

Well,
1 I found it quite complicated to create a crypto currency account in the first instance, let alone download meta data.
2 Unlike, for example, real estate deeds or gold holdings being told to one or two close family, I wasn't too sure how to convey where the USB drive would be located and how a relative would "sell" the crypto assets on my demise.
3 Sometimes selling needs to be done with some urgency. Having to download data from a USB device into a crypto exchange then sell in Sterling didnt fill me with confidence.
Maybe I was being too pessimistic.

So the whole process a bit clunky still; I think my view that most Bitcoin transactions if they happen will be in "money created from thin air" AKA bitcoin derivatives AKA Paypal bitcoin AKA not real bitcoin. This was really obvious from the very first time I looked at bitcoin some 8-9 years ago but many people still talk about the "limited/finite supply" of bitcoin and blockchains and ledgers as if they have no comprehension of these limitations. It's really quite a curious phenomenon...

GS

A google tells me there are something just over 2 million bitcoins left to be mined , is anyone able to calculate the amount of energy required to obtains these ?

Holts wrote:A google tells me there are something just over 2 million bitcoins left to be mined , is anyone able to calculate the amount of energy required to obtains these ?

A google tells me, "In conclusion, the amount of energy it takes to mine a bitcoin is estimated to be between 86,000 – 286,000 kWh" (!) and "the overall cost and energy required to mine a bitcoin will rise over time."

https://minerdaily.com/2021/how-much-power-does-it-take-to-mine-a-bitcoin/

mc2fool wrote:

Holts wrote:A google tells me there are something just over 2 million bitcoins left to be mined , is anyone able to calculate the amount of energy required to obtains these ?

A google tells me, "In conclusion, the amount of energy it takes to mine a bitcoin is estimated to be between 86,000 – 286,000 kWh" (!) and "the overall cost and energy required to mine a bitcoin will rise over time."

https://minerdaily.com/2021/how-much-power-does-it-take-to-mine-a-bitcoin/

I was hoping for something more precise than google

Fundamentally, come the Quantum Apocalypse https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60144498 and the only mathematically validated encryption method is using one-time-pad type methods, that are far better suited to centralised/regulated ledgers.

As such, alternatives such as Btc have finite life before becoming valueless and any gains to be made are from pure speculation/greater-fool.

Curiously and coincidentally, for the first time I've just encountered crypto out there in the real world.

Yesterday I was trying to buy a lithium cell monitor on ebay and ebay kept reversing the sale a few minutes after I paid, and refunding my money. (This happened despite me trying two different methods of payment and purchases either side of this one completing successfully.)

I had this once before many years ago and the seller took it up with ebay who fixed it. So I PMed this seller yesterday suggesting he does the same and he responded with a proposal for me to buy it off ebay and pay (I think!) by crypto via Binance.

I probably won't as firstly I don't have a Binance account and frankly, not sure I trust them having read their Wiki page, and secondly the seller coincidentally is only about 20 miles away so I might just drive over and buy it face-to-face with some quaint old fashioned folding beer tokens!

Holts wrote:

mc2fool wrote:

Holts wrote:A google tells me there are something just over 2 million bitcoins left to be mined , is anyone able to calculate the amount of energy required to obtains these ?

A google tells me, "In conclusion, the amount of energy it takes to mine a bitcoin is estimated to be between 86,000 – 286,000 kWh" (!) and "the overall cost and energy required to mine a bitcoin will rise over time."

https://minerdaily.com/2021/how-much-power-does-it-take-to-mine-a-bitcoin/

I was hoping for something more precise than google

How ungrateful. It's as precise as your just over 2 million, which you (or google) presumably got from an article found by searching with google. Did you read the Miner Daily article?

mc2fool wrote:

Holts wrote:

mc2fool wrote:

Holts wrote:A google tells me there are something just over 2 million bitcoins left to be mined , is anyone able to calculate the amount of energy required to obtains these ?

A google tells me, "In conclusion, the amount of energy it takes to mine a bitcoin is estimated to be between 86,000 – 286,000 kWh" (!) and "the overall cost and energy required to mine a bitcoin will rise over time."

https://minerdaily.com/2021/how-much-power-does-it-take-to-mine-a-bitcoin/

I was hoping for something more precise than google

How ungrateful. It's as precise as your just over 2 million, which you (or google) presumably got from an article found by searching with google. Did you read the Miner Daily article?

I was merely having a jest with you !

No I have not read the article , I could have been exact certainly however it was a question by the way of how horrendous the amount of energy consumption was and how much more needed to be expended .

Can someone explain why Bitcoin will fail to me? Here's David Rosenthal's take:

https://blog.dshr.org/2022/02/ee380-talk.html


GS

GoSeigen wrote:Can someone explain why Bitcoin will fail to me? Here's David Rosenthal's take:

https://blog.dshr.org/2022/02/ee380-talk.html


GS

My take is that essentially you have a few issues:

• What is actually being traded and owned is just a unique set of numbers. You can't actually do anything with your bitcoin, so it's not like most traded commodities.
• In order to maintain the network, there is a huge amount of energy being used, many times more per transaction than traditional centralised systems because the same work has to be repeated by every mining node.
• Bitcoin is both slow and expensive when dealing with large volumes of transactions.
• Bitcoin can be wholly cloned without any real effort, and the tokens that are traded will have the exact same features and functionality as the original, just with a different name presumably (e.g. Citcoin).
• There's no intrinsic value associated with the tokens. This means there is no revenue expected other than what people pay into the network. Given this, it's entirely reliant on Greater Fool Theory to produce returns, and for the levels of returns to continue as they are, you need to have an exponentially increasing number of new users. If the returns don't continue as they are and stabilise, many of those holding purely for the gains will sell, which will trigger a price slump.

Overall I just can't see a positive case for buying bitcoin other than that you might make some money in the short term if you can get in and out before the bubble finally bursts.

ISTM that Bitcoin, and to some extent gold, are made more attractive during financial repression. Pre-GFC you could just about keep your nose ahead of inflation with money on deposit. No longer. So anyone wishing to have a percentage of their wealth in cash is going to see the value of that money decline over time.

For myself I would only ever hold significant amounts of cash for short-medium term spending requirements so the impact of inflation is likely to be relatively muted. Certainly more tolerable than the wild swings in value that BTC or commodities suffer.

So I have no reason to buy BTC. Shares/property for long-term investments and cash for short term needs.

BoE

GoSeigen wrote:Can someone explain why Bitcoin will fail to me? Here's David Rosenthal's take:

https://blog.dshr.org/2022/02/ee380-talk.html


GS

Interesting and very damning of crypto. I am amazed that Greta Thunberg and the whole climate change mafia have not come down against Bitcoin etc in a very big way.

GoSeigen wrote:Can someone explain why Bitcoin will fail to me? Here's David Rosenthal's take:

https://blog.dshr.org/2022/02/ee380-talk.html


GS

Just a quick question here. Shouldn't you have started a new thread? One possibly called why Bitcoin will fail or can anyone explain why it will fail.

There are of course arguments to be made on that subject, but they don't really cover what it is or why anyone might want it.

I.E what I understand to be the topic of this thread.

The UK tax department has seized crypto assets as part of an investigation into suspected tax evasion

Nick Sharp, HMRC's deputy director economic crime, said the seizure "serves as a warning to anyone who thinks they can use crypto assets to hide money from HMRC".

A number of arrests of those using "sophisticated methods to try to hide their identities including false and stolen identities", HMRC said.

"Confiscation also comes with a very tempting reward due to the Proceeds of Crime Act where the investigating police force can request to keep half of the forfeited goods and the other half will go to the Home Office. So with digital currencies, this can be extremely appealing indeed."

... Looks to me that holding/using crypto could be the excuse for the Police to come knocking down your door in a 4am raid to seize ALL of your assets/wealth to share out between themselves and HMRC. Unless you can come up with a 100% viable/valid reason for holding/using it.

We are in the midst of a serious war between two European countries.
Could someone explain why Bitcoin is flatlining, surely it should have doubled, trebled or more.
Was Bitcoin not designed to be the new currency of choice during such global stress points? Honest question.

scotview wrote:We are in the midst of a serious war between two European countries.
Could someone explain why Bitcoin is flatlining, surely it should have doubled, trebled or more.
Was Bitcoin not designed to be the new currency of choice during such global stress points? Honest question.

Well what I think is a honest answer is, that it's not flat lining. OK, if you talk about the price in $ or £, it may seem remarkably stable.
The price in Rubles is up significantly.

Less significant is the increase in the price in Ukrainian currency. Somewhat surprisingly as who knows if that currency will exist in 5 years time.

Both countries have real difficulty with foreign currency exchange. I seem to recall news of banks in Russia running out of foreign currency and the Ukrainian central bank instigated emergency measures, limiting access to cash and foreign exchange.

Meanwhile the Ukrainian authorities/people seem to have been given substantial sums in bitcoin.
ie
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/ ... donations/
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... in-ukraine

As yet, thankfully, there are few worries having savings in £'s or $'s here, other than some inflation concerns. Owning bitcoin here is less vital or urgent.

Ps, I think other boards are the place to debate the war or donation options (though I'm using £'s). While you ask a valid question for this board, we do need to remain on topic for the board.

scotview wrote:We are in the midst of a serious war between two European countries.
Could someone explain why Bitcoin is flatlining, surely it should have doubled, trebled or more.
Was Bitcoin not designed to be the new currency of choice during such global stress points? Honest question.

Because bitcoin doubles not when there is war but when Central Banks start on their massive money printing campaigns, obvs.

viewtopic.php?p=471373#p471373

Simples

GS

Lengthy article in NYT trying explain crypto from a reasonable neutral viewpoint (NYT is paywalled but link below is a 'gift' )

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/03/18/technology/cryptocurrency-crypto-guide.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuomT1JKd6J17Vw1cRCfTTMQmqxCdw_PIxfs9gGPzNiGeVTdcwqNPW9LavB-WIvMzIMc-1DSdQ9tGP65oT-Zj1vNYNFF3UQSuqYrBk44UOzky7I2uX287mZLRWLRyuRnbUl6EEsYtjruuo0DBdzm2HfCfgSdnfEkyv8QzIgmv0SEM2qzGRbVq3tZ73eNyVswrWWgHYyje7aHjDR51Os6ULU2JsnlAUOlfXjzYmtGe7atRM1kBTAKbEw4spDo0-9heO9gIPazgLBdGeML2g78ZD2YAP57-TtRqBNCSz-M2xOaL_R-cy8O2xOE0EbFXtN7HsmW7NlUpStCGLfmd-3FarS67tjaocM1Dbnk&smid=url-share

NotSure wrote:Lengthy article in NYT trying explain crypto from a reasonable neutral viewpoint (NYT is paywalled but link below is a 'gift' )

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/03/18/technology/cryptocurrency-crypto-guide.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuomT1JKd6J17Vw1cRCfTTMQmqxCdw_PIxfs9gGPzNiGeVTdcwqNPW9LavB-WIvMzIMc-1DSdQ9tGP65oT-Zj1vNYNFF3UQSuqYrBk44UOzky7I2uX287mZLRWLRyuRnbUl6EEsYtjruuo0DBdzm2HfCfgSdnfEkyv8QzIgmv0SEM2qzGRbVq3tZ73eNyVswrWWgHYyje7aHjDR51Os6ULU2JsnlAUOlfXjzYmtGe7atRM1kBTAKbEw4spDo0-9heO9gIPazgLBdGeML2g78ZD2YAP57-TtRqBNCSz-M2xOaL_R-cy8O2xOE0EbFXtN7HsmW7NlUpStCGLfmd-3FarS67tjaocM1Dbnk&smid=url-share

Thanks a million! Despite it being a typical US website that takes ten thousand words to sum up what could be said in fifty words, it convinced me to avoid Bitcoin like the plague! I can never thank you enough!

But few crypto fans would dispute that blockchains consume substantially more energy than a traditional, centralized database would — just as 100 refrigerators use more energy than one refrigerator. They just argue that crypto’s environmental impact will shrink over time, and that the benefits of decentralization are worth the costs.

NYT Neutral viewpoint? Really?


Steve

stevensfo wrote:
NYT Neutral viewpoint? Really?

Typo in my post - that was meant to be reasonably neutral, not reasonable neutral....

But since much "info" is rabidly proselytizing one way or the other, I thought it worth posting. Plus an excuse to use my "gifts"