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Crypto crash?

How to buy, profit and invest in crypto currencies or NFTs
Itsallaguess
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Re: Crypto crash?

#503472

Postby Itsallaguess » May 28th, 2022, 6:59 pm

Urbandreamer wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:
It is inefficient, prone to fraud, unstable and a facilitator for crime


I REALLY hate the use of the word "inefficient" when used about anything. It's a quite meaningless word, because it doesn't describe any aspect that it is applied to. Are shops with long ques inefficient, while those with short ones who have to spend more on staff efficient? I've certainly heard people claiming that queues are a sign of inefficiency.

I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that you might be talking energy costs, but what of the energy mining, smelting and minting the 1p coins in circulation? Or producing those plastic £5 notes. Possibly we should save that energy and ban cash.


If we had to expend all that mining, smelting, and minting energy every single time we spent a coin, then I'd fully agree with you.

But we don't....

Meanwhile, in Bitcoin world, every single Bitcoin transaction requires over 2100kWh of energy being spent to carry out every single transaction...

1 Bitcoin transaction = 2188kWh of energy consumption

100,000 VISA transactions = 148kWh


https://www.statista.com/statistics/881541/bitcoin-energy-consumption-transaction-comparison-visa/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Urbandreamer
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Re: Crypto crash?

#503489

Postby Urbandreamer » May 28th, 2022, 7:55 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:1 Bitcoin transaction = 2188kWh of energy consumption

100,000 VISA transactions = 148kWh


https://www.statista.com/statistics/881541/bitcoin-energy-consumption-transaction-comparison-visa/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


Thanks for that, I think that many were aware and few dispute that fact. However is it a meaningful fact or statement.

Johnb would rather the energy be put to use folding drugs, ignoring the energy that is used by computer gamers. Others would chose to ignore the fact that Visa can be denied. No not by a vender but by Visa or a state.

Bitcoin sacrifices energy to achieve other targets. Visa et-al make no attempt to meet those targets. Targets that you would like to think that they share, such as downtime are won by Bitcoin*.

Surely something that you can't rely upon must be inefficient? Well I'm not going to use that word. Instead I'm pointing out that it's use depends upon the metrics you are judging by.

*I'm not talking local downtime, but country wide or international. Centralization cuts energy consumption but decentralization and multiple copies increase reliability.

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Re: Crypto crash?

#503503

Postby GoSeigen » May 28th, 2022, 8:57 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
Urbandreamer wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:
It is inefficient, prone to fraud, unstable and a facilitator for crime


I REALLY hate the use of the word "inefficient" when used about anything. It's a quite meaningless word, because it doesn't describe any aspect that it is applied to. Are shops with long ques inefficient, while those with short ones who have to spend more on staff efficient? I've certainly heard people claiming that queues are a sign of inefficiency.

I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that you might be talking energy costs, but what of the energy mining, smelting and minting the 1p coins in circulation? Or producing those plastic £5 notes. Possibly we should save that energy and ban cash.


If we had to expend all that mining, smelting, and minting energy every single time we spent a coin, then I'd fully agree with you.

But we don't....

Meanwhile, in Bitcoin world, every single Bitcoin transaction requires over 2100kWh of energy being spent to carry out every single transaction...

1 Bitcoin transaction = 2188kWh of energy consumption

100,000 VISA transactions = 148kWh


https://www.statista.com/statistics/881541/bitcoin-energy-consumption-transaction-comparison-visa/


Agree 100% but these figures will have about as much effect as gun death statistics have on NRA members!

GS

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Re: Crypto crash?

#503514

Postby Mike4 » May 28th, 2022, 10:21 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
[b][i]1 Bitcoin transaction = 2188kWh of energy consumption



Can we just clarify please?

2.188mWh of energy is used for any transaction in Bitcoin no matter how large or small the transaction size? E.g. spending 1/10,000 of a BC on a coffee uses enough energy to sell on the open electricity generation market for perhaps £250 (guessing the amount by today's energy prices)?

If true that is truly breathtaking waste of resources.

JohnB
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Re: Crypto crash?

#503526

Postby JohnB » May 29th, 2022, 12:13 am

If the transaction updates the blockchain, yes (clearly you could be part of a secondary market where you only have indirect ownership)

Another thing bitcoin proponents fail to mention is the blockchain can only handle 7 transactions a second for the complete currency base. It cannot be used as a transactional currecncy, and its volatility makes it a poor store of value. But once you have some, you'd not mention that, would you

https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption

Urbandreamer
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Re: Crypto crash?

#503568

Postby Urbandreamer » May 29th, 2022, 9:31 am

Just for clarity, most who have known things for a while don't go around repeating the fact. Usually as they assume others already know them.

Here are some facts, that I assume anyone who has looked into bitcoin will learn. Even honest detractors.

Bitcoin is decentralized. Huge numbers of specially designed equipment (Asic's that can only mine bitcoin) basically doing the same thing and using a lot of electricity to do so.
The owners of this equipment usually run it for profit. That is the fee that they receive for transactions or mining must exceed the price they pay for electricity to cause them to run the equipment.
Were they to use standard computer hardware capable of stuff like protean folding the electricity costs would exceed the fees that they make were they using it for bitcoin. That is unless the equipment and electricity is free or they receive some other incentive such as using the heat or payments to stabilize the electricity grid so that they can profit from what they do.
This structure is very robust, even a state banning such operations, where close to 50% of global transactions were recorded, didn't disrupt the system.

Bitcoin's blockchain protocol doesn't scale. That is to say that the number of transactions and frequency of those transactions can't cope were the world to switch to using bitcoin. It's not Visa and could never directly replace Visa. Then again Visa isn't £'s. The lightning network is a scaling solution for bitcoin, though no technical reason prevents Visa offering the same sort of service. At one point I understand that they were looking at doing so, but it seems they decided not to.

Bitcoin is trustless and peer to peer. That is to say that not only can no central "trusted" authority refuse a transaction but such a authority can't reverse a transaction either. The system presumes that you self-custody. If you do so then you can only have bitcoin directly stolen/seized through violence or the threat thereof. The BIP39 protocol means that you can even "keep your bitcoin in your head" as you swim naked across a boarder fleeing a country.

Bitcoin has no monetary policy unlike fiat, though changes to the protocol do gradually happen by consensus. Hence the Central African Republic is no longer subject to the EU's monetary policy and El-Salvador the US monetary policy. This is because their citizens can now use alternatives to currencies under the control of the Fed or EU central bank.

The reward for mining Bitcoin reduces on a fairly regular frequency and will eventually reach 0. At which point transaction fees will be the only source of funds for those who run the protocol.

Bitcoin is NOT some other crypto currency and other crypto currencies are not bitcoin. Hence my initial post on this thread.
https://lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=500096#p500096

Other crypto distinguish themselves by changing or deciding to change some of the above facts. Some crypto is inflationary, ie mining fees to not reduce to zero. Others are not trustless. There are even more obscure differences that I can't be bothered researching. Just accept that for any crytpo to meaningfully exist it must be different from other existing crypto or fiat. If that were not true then why not simply use what it's identical to?

I do hope that detractors check these facts and there after not ignore them, or better yet as Johnb expects of bitcoiner's, mention them from time to time.

I also hope that it's understood that knowing these facts probably won't change anyone's opinion. Like I said, they are quickly found if you look into the subject.

If you object to the energy use, then you must object to other uses of energy, unless you regard them as providing some value and Bitcoin of providing no value.
If you support Bitcoin then you must regard it as having a value and hence the energy use is justified by that value.
Those differences of opinion on value are not changed by facts already known to both sides of the debate.

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Re: Crypto crash?

#503612

Postby Urbandreamer » May 29th, 2022, 1:45 pm

JohnB wrote:But once you have some, you'd not mention that, would you

https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption


I and others question, SERIOUSLY question digiconomists claims.

Given the difficulty of what they CLAIM to be attempting I believed that their results were simply an honest assessment, possibly with some flawed assumptions, for some time. That changed last year.

I would invite all who have quoted them in the past to read this (part 2) article from last year (9th July).
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/no ... st-bitcoin

You will also find a link therein to part one.

Brief synopsis about their index and real world data.

To be clear there is NO CORRELATION between daily electricity consumption/emissions growth rate and hashrate, difficulty, Bitcoin price and/or miner profitability.

The Digiconomist Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index is not being driven by real world metrics and profitability as stated in the methodology.

This is NOT science. That much is settled.


Either use their data to validate them, or find a source of estimates that others can have faith in.

Ps, most honest estimates have uncertainty or confidence factors. Error bounds, call them what you will. The estimate is likely to be wrong by a known amount.

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Re: Crypto crash?

#503634

Postby JohnB » May 29th, 2022, 4:36 pm

As a counterpoint to articles written by bitcoin mining ceos, how about the Cambridge University Centre for Alternative Finance https://ccaf.io/cbeci/index

Or a comment by a Square Kilometre Array data scientist bitter that fpga and gpus have become to scarce to do their radio astronomy research, because kf bitcoin miners

I am not writing these comments for urbandreamer, but for those new to bitcoin

Urbandreamer
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Re: Crypto crash?

#503646

Postby Urbandreamer » May 29th, 2022, 6:11 pm

JohnB wrote:As a counterpoint to articles written by bitcoin mining ceos, how about the Cambridge University Centre for Alternative Finance https://ccaf.io/cbeci/index

Or a comment by a Square Kilometre Array data scientist bitter that fpga and gpus have become to scarce to do their radio astronomy research, because kf bitcoin miners

I am not writing these comments for urbandreamer, but for those new to bitcoin


Thank you! Those are EXACTLY the sort of things that I feel you should be posting.

FWIW, I discovered Cambridge some time ago after discussions with JohnB and have significantly more faith in them. I just wish that they were his first point of call.

PS, again the confusion between bitcoin and the rest of crypto. Nobody uses GPU's to mine Bitcoin if they want to make money. Ethereum et-al yes, Bitcoin no. You can't make money mining Bitcoin with standard kit, so nobody buys it for that today.
You can mine bitcoin or just about an crypto on any computer, you just will lose money doing so on any proof of work crypto.
Here is a link to using a raspberry pi to mine crypto.
https://www.makeuseof.com/can-you-use-a ... ocurrency/
In summary, if your electricity is heavily subsidized or even free, you may stand to earn roughly 20 cents per month of mining Monero on a Raspberry Pi 4. If you pay market rates for power, you actually stand to lose at least 30 cents per month instead.

They even picked a good candidate. One that you CAN make money using Gpu's, just not Bitcoin.

Sorry JohnB's idea of people altruistically protean folding may happen, but even I invest in a company AZK who does such on a commercial basis.

murraypaul
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Re: Crypto crash?

#503714

Postby murraypaul » May 30th, 2022, 9:59 am

Urbandreamer wrote:If you object to the energy use, then you must object to other uses of energy, unless you regard them as providing some value and Bitcoin of providing no value.


I don't think you meant it as such, but this comes across as a bit of strawman, that either Bitcoin has no value, or any amount of energy use is worthwhile.

It is perfectly reasonable to think that the value provided by Bitcoin is not worth the energy consumed by it, without believing it has zero value.

Equally it is reasonable to think that the same amount of energy spent on lighting homes, or powering offices, is more worthwhile than spending it on Bitcoin mining.

murraypaul
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Re: Crypto crash?

#503716

Postby murraypaul » May 30th, 2022, 10:05 am

Gilgongo wrote:Yes, this is why I said "roughly speaking". I didn't want to get into the bottomless rat hole of on/off chain technical design stuff, forks and whatnot that might or might not affect the general idea of how crypto/Bitcoin is supposed to work. I was trying to summarise :-)


Fair enough, but just to show the scale of the problem, at current Bitcoin prices the reward for mining a block is ~152k GBP. Currently that is just created, via Bitcoin inflation. Once the last coin is mined, that can't happen any more.

That is almost 22 million pounds a day.

That is a lot of transaction fees, to replace the existing rewards.

murraypaul
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Re: Crypto crash?

#503725

Postby murraypaul » May 30th, 2022, 10:29 am

The impact of the crash on people who thought crypto could only ever go up:

https://londonlovesbusiness.com/60-per- ... ge-losses/
60% of UK investors used borrowed funds to buy their coins as Crypto prices plummet leaving many with huge losses

WRITTEN BY LLB FINANCE REPORTER 29TH MAY 22 12:31 PM

A study by KIS Finance, has revealed that over two thirds of cryptocurrency investors borrowed money to make their purchase, rather than using income and/or savings.

Overall, more than two thirds (64%) of those who have invested in cryptos, used one or more credit facilities to do so. Whilst this may have seemed like a good investment strategy at the time, prices of the main cryptocurrencies have fallen by as much as 100% in the last month. This dramatic fall will leave many facing huge losses, whilst still saddled with the cost of repaying their original borrowing.

[...]

When we break down what kinds of credit facilities people have used to purchase cryptocurrencies, over a third (35.5%) made their investment using a credit card. Almost a fifth (19.3%) funded the purchase out of their overdraft.

Credit card – 35.5%
Overdraft – 19.3%
Personal loan – 14.6%
Secured loan – 9%
Payday loan – 7.6%
Re-mortgage – 3.3%


This seems a little overblown, the fact that you buy something on credit card doesn't really mean you are borrowing to buy it, in the same way that the others do, if you are paying your card off each month, it is just that card is the easiest way to pay.

Lanark
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Re: Crypto crash?

#503730

Postby Lanark » May 30th, 2022, 10:48 am

Urbandreamer wrote:Bitcoin's blockchain protocol doesn't scale. That is to say that the number of transactions and frequency of those transactions can't cope were the world to switch to using bitcoin. It's not Visa and could never directly replace Visa. Then again Visa isn't £'s.

The lightning network is a scaling solution for bitcoin, though no technical reason prevents Visa offering the same sort of service. At one point I understand that they were looking at doing so, but it seems they decided not to.

So what you are saying is that because Bitcoin doesnt work as a currency, you can just use Lightning.
But if lightning works, then you don't need bitcoin at all, because all of your trust (monetary risk) is going into Lightning.

and if Visa have rejected Lightning then that option is probably still worse than the centralised computer systems we already have.

The emperor has no clothes.

Urbandreamer
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Re: Crypto crash?

#503861

Postby Urbandreamer » May 30th, 2022, 10:28 pm

Lanark wrote:
Urbandreamer wrote:Bitcoin's blockchain protocol doesn't scale. That is to say that the number of transactions and frequency of those transactions can't cope were the world to switch to using bitcoin. It's not Visa and could never directly replace Visa. Then again Visa isn't £'s.

The lightning network is a scaling solution for bitcoin, though no technical reason prevents Visa offering the same sort of service. At one point I understand that they were looking at doing so, but it seems they decided not to.

So what you are saying is that because Bitcoin doesnt work as a currency, you can just use Lightning.
But if lightning works, then you don't need bitcoin at all, because all of your trust (monetary risk) is going into Lightning.

and if Visa have rejected Lightning then that option is probably still worse than the centralised computer systems we already have.

The emperor has no clothes.


No, I'm not saying that. I recommend that you take a look at Visa, used around the world. Is it a currency? No it's a transaction system that works with multiple currencies. Now if you can get your head around that fact have a look at lightning. Guess what, it isn't a currency. It is a transaction system that works with multiple crypto currencies.

I suggest that you try using the Swift Network, oh wait a minute you can't. It's how many countries banks transfer funds across boarders. Is that a currency?
It's a stupid question isn't it.

The "Swift" network can't handle huge amounts of transactions and it's slow, taking over a week. But that's fine, it doesn't need to scale as Visa, MasterCard and Banks handle the bulk of transactions within a given country. The banks aggregate the transactions and infrequently put a transaction through using Swift.

I never claimed that Visa had rejected lightning. It would be a stupid claim as lightning is a decentralized transaction system handling multiple currencies. PLEASE HAVE THE GRACE TO READ WHAT YOU QUOTE! I claimed that I thought that Visa was at one point considering extending it's transaction system to cover bitcoin.

I suggest that it would be a good idea if people actually research the subject that they choose to post about.

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Re: Crypto crash?

#503885

Postby Pendrainllwyn » May 31st, 2022, 3:17 am

Urbandreamer wrote:The "Swift" network can't handle huge amounts of transactions and it's slow, taking over a week. But that's fine, it doesn't need to scale as Visa, MasterCard and Banks handle the bulk of transactions within a given country. The banks aggregate the transactions and infrequently put a transaction through using Swift.
I am not sure that's entirely correct. A quick google search shows that SWIFT claim they processed an average of 42 million securities and payment transactions each day in 2021. To the best of my knowledge cross-border payments using SWIFT can take a few hours. Same day is essential for efficient global markets. If it is taking over a week I suspect that relates to smaller transactions made on behalf of individuals rather than institutions and doesn't accurately reflect the capability of the network.

Pendrainllwyn

Urbandreamer
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Re: Crypto crash?

#503889

Postby Urbandreamer » May 31st, 2022, 7:02 am

Pendrainllwyn wrote:I am not sure that's entirely correct. A quick google search shows that SWIFT claim they processed an average of 42 million securities and payment transactions each day in 2021. To the best of my knowledge cross-border payments using SWIFT can take a few hours. Same day is essential for efficient global markets. If it is taking over a week I suspect that relates to smaller transactions made on behalf of individuals rather than institutions and doesn't accurately reflect the capability of the network.

Pendrainllwyn


Thanks. I may have overstated that case. I recall reading that it could take over a week and my source says 1-5 days.
https://www.fin.do/blog/62_swift-transfers-explained

The Post that Lanark quoted was not attempting to make a debating point but provide facts as I understand them. Were I making a debating point I would argue that comparing Visa to Bitcoin is a false comparison.

Here is a link to that post so the parts that he quoted may easily be read in full.
viewtopic.php?p=503568#p503568

The Bitcoin protocol sacrifices a lot to achieve it's "trust less" status. Comparing it to a system that relies on a trusted provider is Apples and Pears. Instead why not compare two providers/systems that rely upon trust? Or two that are trust less?

I'd also point out that these choices are NOT binary. I use to use Visa and do use MasterCard, I have bank accounts, brokering accounts, an account with a crypto exchange, cash and of course Bitcoin. They serve different purposes for me. Other people may not feel the need or desire to have/use all of those things and that's good too.

murraypaul
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Re: Crypto crash?

#503933

Postby murraypaul » May 31st, 2022, 9:15 am

Urbandreamer wrote:I suggest that you try using the Swift Network, oh wait a minute you can't. It's how many countries banks transfer funds across boarders. Is that a currency?
It's a stupid question isn't it.


The analogy then is Lightning == credit/debit card payment, Bitcoin == Swift. Frontend vs backend.

But Lightning doesn't have the trustless advantages that Bitcoin does, so why use it over Visa, and I don't care how Swift works, that is my bank's problem.

So how does Bitcoin actually make the situation any better?

I'm not anti-crypto as a concept, I just genuinely think that the design of Bitcoin makes it unsuitable to be what it was originally intended to be, a currency, and the approaches to remove that problem also remove its primary design goal of trustlessness.

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Re: Crypto crash?

#503946

Postby CliffEdge » May 31st, 2022, 10:15 am

Will a Bitcoin continue to increase in price indefinitely? Perhaps I should buy one if so, but they don't sell them at the Post Office so where do they sell them? Nobody seems to know if they're a good thing. How would I know I'd bought a real Bitcoin and not a forgery?

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Re: Crypto crash?

#503963

Postby Urbandreamer » May 31st, 2022, 11:13 am

CliffEdge wrote:Will a Bitcoin continue to increase in price indefinitely? Perhaps I should buy one if so, but they don't sell them at the Post Office so where do they sell them? Nobody seems to know if they're a good thing. How would I know I'd bought a real Bitcoin and not a forgery?


Nobody knows if Bitcoin will continue to go up in price. There is the argument that supply is limited so possibly it should.

There are many ways to buy and hold Bitcoin. There are some banks who will handle the process and store it for you. You could use Paypal, I did for a time. If you want to keep it yourself the options are an exchange or direct from someone who has some. I use a regulated exchange. The record of transactions is public so you can check on the internet that it's "real" or rather that the transaction happened.

I would seriously question if you should buy one on a whim. I think at the moment they are about £25k each.
I buy tiny fractions of a Bitcoin.

GrahamPlatt
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Re: Crypto crash?

#505554

Postby GrahamPlatt » June 7th, 2022, 11:11 am

I have no idea what to make of this, but it may be of interest here:

https://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1ss24a6


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