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Premium Bonds

swill453
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Re: Premium Bonds

#353087

Postby swill453 » November 3rd, 2020, 5:00 pm

Bouleversee wrote:I thought I would give it a try with Chrome and leaving the U-block on and it actually worked: I have won 4 x £25, best win I have had all year, making it £325 so far on £50k. I used to do better when I had all my bonds in one block but had to sell some of them at one point and added back later.

You know it doesn't make any difference, don't you?

If you don't believe it's truly random, why would you ever invest?

Scott.

dealtn
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Re: Premium Bonds

#353088

Postby dealtn » November 3rd, 2020, 5:01 pm

swill453 wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:I thought I would give it a try with Chrome and leaving the U-block on and it actually worked: I have won 4 x £25, best win I have had all year, making it £325 so far on £50k. I used to do better when I had all my bonds in one block but had to sell some of them at one point and added back later.

You know it doesn't make any difference, don't you?

If you don't believe it's truly random, why would you ever invest?

Scott.


Well it's probably true, although the "interest rate" was probably higher then also. I wonder which has the greater causation for the outcome?

Redmires
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Re: Premium Bonds

#353089

Postby Redmires » November 3rd, 2020, 5:08 pm

I think there two issues at play this morning. One was the prize checker and the other was logging into the account section. Prize checker worked fine for me (firefox & pi-hole/ghostery) but the login section gave the green 'you're in a queue' screen. Tried it again just now and managed to log in ok.

swill453
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Re: Premium Bonds

#353091

Postby swill453 » November 3rd, 2020, 5:13 pm

dealtn wrote:
swill453 wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:I thought I would give it a try with Chrome and leaving the U-block on and it actually worked: I have won 4 x £25, best win I have had all year, making it £325 so far on £50k. I used to do better when I had all my bonds in one block but had to sell some of them at one point and added back later.

You know it doesn't make any difference, don't you?

If you don't believe it's truly random, why would you ever invest?

Well it's probably true, although the "interest rate" was probably higher then also. I wonder which has the greater causation for the outcome?

Well only one factor is a causation. Correlation for the other is ... just that.

Scott.

XFool
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Re: Premium Bonds

#353123

Postby XFool » November 3rd, 2020, 6:46 pm

Bouleversee wrote:There were letters in The Times yesterday and today complaining about the difficulty old people were having with registering on-line etc. and saying it should not be assumed that everyone has access to a computer. Even those of us who can use them if all is straightforward (I had no difficulty i registering with the previous website, providing my bank details or checking if I had won anything) are caught out when things go wrong. I think ads are blocked by U-block in my case but when I went onto settings I was confronted with a message about linking my devices which I didn't understand.
IAG's instructions about filter lists mean nothing to me either. I shall have to wait till my son visits to find out whether I have won anything this month. Am not holding my breath, however.

You should still be able to use the Prize Checker if you simply turn adblocking off in your browser. Usually this can be done on a per site basis. If not you will have to turn off blocking temporarily and then on again when you have finished with the NS&I site.

Alternatively you should be able to check your prizes and everything else by logging on to your account. When I last looked, the online website seemed not to have changed its appearance or operation.

Bouleversee wrote:What I'd like to know is why an adblocker should create any problems with using an official savings site. It didn't stop me using the previous one. I wonder which company was used to set this website up. I don't think they were up to the job.

This is one of those tiresome sort of things that always seems to happen when websites are (euphemistically) 'upgraded'.

Laughton
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Re: Premium Bonds

#353133

Postby Laughton » November 3rd, 2020, 7:14 pm

Logging on and checking pretty much as normal for me - I use Firefox on Windows 8.1 Pro.

2 x £25 for me
3 x £25 for Mrs L

Both with maximum holdings.

Bouleversee
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Re: Premium Bonds

#353152

Postby Bouleversee » November 3rd, 2020, 8:11 pm

I am probably completely bonkers but I have always visualised ERNIE as a bit like a firework shooting out sparks randomly in all directions, not aiming or being able to aim them at anywhere in particular, but it just seemed logical that if you had a large block the chance of one of those sparks landing somewhere on it might be greater than if you had several small ones and in my own experience that was the case but I agree that proves nothing and I have to admit that I did win a decent prize once when I had quite a small holding but that must have been a stray spark landing just outside someone else's big block. :lol: .

dealtn
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Re: Premium Bonds

#353156

Postby dealtn » November 3rd, 2020, 8:29 pm

The R in ERNIE is there for a reason.

kiloran
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Re: Premium Bonds

#353164

Postby kiloran » November 3rd, 2020, 8:52 pm

Bouleversee wrote:I am probably completely bonkers but I have always visualised ERNIE as a bit like a firework shooting out sparks randomly in all directions, not aiming or being able to aim them at anywhere in particular, but it just seemed logical that if you had a large block the chance of one of those sparks landing somewhere on it might be greater than if you had several small ones and in my own experience that was the case but I agree that proves nothing and I have to admit that I did win a decent prize once when I had quite a small holding but that must have been a stray spark landing just outside someone else's big block. :lol: .

But if the sparks are random, having a large block reduces your chances of all the other sparks landing on that block.
If it's truly random, as I believe, the chances of success will be identical if you have 50000 in one block or 50000 separate bonds

--kiloran

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Re: Premium Bonds

#353210

Postby XFool » November 3rd, 2020, 10:47 pm

Bouleversee wrote:I am probably completely bonkers but I have always visualised ERNIE as a bit like a firework shooting out sparks randomly in all directions, not aiming or being able to aim them at anywhere in particular, but it just seemed logical that if you had a large block the chance of one of those sparks landing somewhere on it might be greater than if you had several small ones and in my own experience that was the case but I agree that proves nothing and I have to admit that I did win a decent prize once when I had quite a small holding but that must have been a stray spark landing just outside someone else's big block. :lol: .

If you think of your block as having a given area, then each one of your bonds will have an area equal to the area of your block divided by the number of your bonds. But the total area of all those bonds is the same, whether scattered all over the place or all in one place, in a block.

Each of those individual bonds will have less chance of catching a random spark than the block, but, as the "sparks" are falling randomly all over the place, it only depends on the area of a bond, or on the total area of all your bonds wherever they are.

Bouleversee
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Re: Premium Bonds

#355250

Postby Bouleversee » November 10th, 2020, 3:32 pm

I've actually had my prize money paid into my bank account withoout any need to re-register bank details, so that's one problem sorted.

swill453
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Re: Premium Bonds

#359595

Postby swill453 » November 24th, 2020, 11:50 am

Being a little bored, I followed a link to a headline in the Daily Express that promised "NS&I explains how to 'better chances of winning' in Premium Bonds prize draw".

Fantastic, I thought. What have I been missing over all these years, that might have improved my return?

Turns out the advice is "the more Bonds you hold, the better your chances of winning".

Genius!!

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/perso ... prize-draw

Scott.

Bouleversee
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Re: Premium Bonds

#359598

Postby Bouleversee » November 24th, 2020, 11:54 am

Not "Have them all in one block", then. :lol:

swill453
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Re: Premium Bonds

#359608

Postby swill453 » November 24th, 2020, 12:11 pm

Bouleversee wrote:Not "Have them all in one block", then. :lol:

Nope. And not even "Don't have them all in one block"!

Scott.

AleisterCrowley
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Re: Premium Bonds

#359639

Postby AleisterCrowley » November 24th, 2020, 2:38 pm

Ah , you need to sell and buy new ones regularly to refresh them. The old ones get forgotten about.
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thebarns
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Re: Premium Bonds

#359678

Postby thebarns » November 24th, 2020, 4:37 pm

And rather naughtily throwing some fuel into the fire......

I purchased 4 full family holdings in May and June of this year.

Since then I have been mildly surprised at the combined returns, especially after healthy returns in Oct and Nov.

No single prize greater than £100, but the family average for an admittedly very short period is running at just under 2% return, annualised. My son appears to have been particularly lucky every month and I have told him I am expecting a super Xmas present from him.

Pure luck I know.

Redmires
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Re: Premium Bonds

#361965

Postby Redmires » December 2nd, 2020, 12:43 am

£0 on 3 x max holdings - that's never happened before. Looks like the rate cuts are biting :cry:

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Re: Premium Bonds

#362013

Postby WrongLicence388 » December 2nd, 2020, 9:01 am

3x£25 on 1x max holding.

My first wins in my second month.

C.

Mike88
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Re: Premium Bonds

#362016

Postby Mike88 » December 2nd, 2020, 9:21 am

1x£25 for me on £50k. My bonds bought 4 months ago costing £27k have so far won £175. The remaining £23k of bonds have won virtually nothing in the previous two years.

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Re: Premium Bonds

#362021

Postby Bouleversee » December 2nd, 2020, 9:28 am

Nothing for me on £50k. Not doing very well this year. Really must sell them and buy a new lot. :lol:


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