The Lemon Fool

Watis wrote:We've probably all seen stories like this one, where a holder claims to have never won anything:

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/perso ... ion-answer

NS&I assure us that there is no possibility of bonds being lost in the system. I wonder whether there is an auditing system in place to confirm this?

After the Post Office / Fujitsu scandal, I wonder for how much longer people will be happy to accept the word of NS&I that all is well with their bond holdings?

Watis

Conveniently, the article does not mention how many premium bonds the subject of the article had held for 55 years. If it's something like a £5, then it's not really surprising.

I have £300 PBs (smaller part of larger now max holding) purchased in July 1968 (let's call it 55 years ago) that have had 4 prizes between 2001 (when my record keeping began) and the present , total £250.

But curiously nothing since 2007 on the July 1968 batch...

So I would refute the complaintant's case, but maybe I should start asking why I've not had anything on my July 1968 PBs since 2007.....

kempiejon wrote: My 12 month return over 20%. I'm putting the money somewhere else now.

Never heard of 'running your winners'?

DrFfybes wrote:

kempiejon wrote: My 12 month return over 20%. I'm putting the money somewhere else now.

Never heard of 'running your winners'?

I have - but also luck, mean reversion and averages. I have actually earmarked that money for my SIPP before April then I'll rebuild from next year tax.

kempiejon wrote:I have - but also luck, mean reversion and averages. I have actually earmarked that money for my SIPP before April then I'll rebuild from next year tax.

The SIPP bit I understand.

The rest assumes that ERNIE remembers what you won last time.

You started with the gamblers fallacy with

DrFfybes wrote:Never heard of 'running your winners'?

Anyhow one more month in the draw before the deadline, it could be me.

kempiejon wrote:You started with the gamblers fallacy with

DrFfybes wrote:Never heard of 'running your winners'?

I don't think it was meant to be taken seriously.

XFool wrote:

kempiejon wrote:You started with the gamblers fallacy with

I don't think it was meant to be taken seriously.

I think you're mistaken if you think I did. Cant speak for the Dr, I thought this was part of the repartee.

swill453 wrote:

Watis wrote:We've probably all seen stories like this one, where a holder claims to have never won anything:

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/perso ... on-answer/

The Express is always trying to imply there might be dodgy goings on with Premium Bonds, they'd love it if it was true. It's not.

Scott.

Stories such as this have appeared in media other than the Express.

And now we have the makings of another potential scandal involving a Government body and data corruption in a computer system: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... n-it-fails

I've worked in the IT industry so am familiar with how easily data can be corrupted or deleted by programming bugs, hardware failures, or good old-fashioned user error.

So, today, I find it even harder than before to accept assurances that any computer system is robust if there is no review or audit process in place.

Watis

Watis wrote:
So, today, I find it even harder than before to accept assurances that any computer system is robust if there is no review or audit process in place.

Watis

But there is an audit process in place for Premium Bonds - here's a reference to the process in Hansard from 1990

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/1 ... emiumBonds

Gersemi wrote:

Watis wrote:
So, today, I find it even harder than before to accept assurances that any computer system is robust if there is no review or audit process in place.

Watis

But there is an audit process in place for Premium Bonds - here's a reference to the process in Hansard from 1990

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/1 ... emiumBonds

Thank you for sharing that, Gersemi - that's exactly the sort of assurance I was hoping for.

Watis

2 x £200 for 2 x full holdings

My challenge is still in place...

Can anyone beat my record from a couple of years back, of eight prizes in one month (strictly on one account)?

I don't think I can create a poll within a thread, but am interested in how many times a year on average, do people with £50k of premium bonds, NOT win a prize. I won four last month, after I had invested £50k from my pension lump sum, and given there's a 1 in 21000 chance, am assuming to get 2 on average (so due none this month!) Welcome any other's experiences, particularly the maximum number of months where you didn't win a prize, so I can set my expectations. Thanks for any replies.

bots33 wrote:I don't think I can create a poll within a thread, but am interested in how many times a year on average, do people with £50k of premium bonds, NOT win a prize. I won four last month, after I had invested £50k from my pension lump sum, and given there's a 1 in 21000 chance, am assuming to get 2 on average (so due none this month!) Welcome any other's experiences, particularly the maximum number of months where you didn't win a prize, so I can set my expectations. Thanks for any replies.

I had some PBs beforehand but topped up to the full £50K mid June 2020 and got a prize in each of Aug-Dec that year (Aug being the first eligible month), so no gaps in 2020.

2021: no prizes in January, February, April, November or December
2022: no prize in December
2023: no prize in July
2024: no prize this month

In the 46 months I held a full 50K, I won something in 36 months of those

for my, wife its 29 months holding, 21 winning months

bots33 wrote:I don't think I can create a poll within a thread, but am interested in how many times a year on average, do people with £50k of premium bonds, NOT win a prize. I won four last month, after I had invested £50k from my pension lump sum, and given there's a 1 in 21000 chance, am assuming to get 2 on average (so due none this month!) Welcome any other's experiences, particularly the maximum number of months where you didn't win a prize, so I can set my expectations. Thanks for any replies.

Sorry, don't have data for a single holding, but on two full holdings over 4 years, had at least one prize every month
doolally

bots33 wrote:I don't think I can create a poll within a thread, but am interested in how many times a year on average, do people with £50k of premium bonds, NOT win a prize. I won four last month, after I had invested £50k from my pension lump sum, and given there's a 1 in 21000 chance, am assuming to get 2 on average (so due none this month!) Welcome any other's experiences, particularly the maximum number of months where you didn't win a prize, so I can set my expectations. Thanks for any replies.

If you're interested enough you have some good data available here to mine. 80 pages going back 8 years, a number of posts might be no wind on full holding.

bots33 wrote:I don't think I can create a poll within a thread, but am interested in how many times a year on average, do people with £50k of premium bonds, NOT win a prize. I won four last month, after I had invested £50k from my pension lump sum, and given there's a 1 in 21000 chance, am assuming to get 2 on average (so due none this month!) Welcome any other's experiences, particularly the maximum number of months where you didn't win a prize, so I can set my expectations. Thanks for any replies.

Interesting...

None August 2020, 1 month
None February - May 2021, 4 months
None January - June 2022, 6 months

Of course, it also depends on the bond fund interest rate and the prize structure in place at the time.

XFool wrote:

bots33 wrote:I don't think I can create a poll within a thread, but am interested in how many times a year on average, do people with £50k of premium bonds, NOT win a prize.

Interesting...

None August 2020, 1 month
None February - May 2021, 4 months
None January - June 2022, 6 months

Of course, it also depends on the bond fund interest rate and the prize structure in place at the time.

But mainly it depends on luck

Paul (3 winless months between us from last 12 with 2 x full holdings. Actually quite disappointing when it happens).

Thanks all for the replies - don't know if I have Xfool's patience!
It's helped set my leave criteria as 6 months without a win in a year, 4 consecutive months without a win, and <15 total prizes won in a year.