The Lemon Fool

bots33 wrote:I don't think I can create a poll within a thread, but am interested in how many times a year on average, do people with £50k of premium bonds, NOT win a prize. I won four last month, after I had invested £50k from my pension lump sum, and given there's a 1 in 21000 chance, am assuming to get 2 on average (so due none this month!) Welcome any other's experiences, particularly the maximum number of months where you didn't win a prize, so I can set my expectations. Thanks for any replies.

This intrigued me. Here are details of 3 max holdings (constitutent parts of total holdings purchased at different times - earliest 1968, and each holding made up of more than one purchase, but max holdings through the period shown). The £0 shows where there is a no win for a particular holding for a particular month, the blanks are where there has been a win, but I have not included the amount of the win. Totals at the bottom (divided by number of years, currently 8).

year      | A    | E    | K   
Jan-2016  |      |      |     
Feb-2016  |      |      |   £0
Mar-2016  |   £0 |      |     
Apr-2016  |      |      |     
May-2016  |      |      |     
Jun-2016  |      |   £0 |     
Jul-2016  |      |      |     
Aug-2016  |      |      |     
Sep-2016  |      |      |   £0
Oct-2016  |      |      |     
Nov-2016  |      |      |     
Dec-2016  |   £0 |      |   £0
Jan-2017  |      |      |   £0
Feb-2017  |   £0 |   £0 |   £0
Mar-2017  |      |      |     
Apr-2017  |      |      |     
May-2017  |      |      |     
Jun-2017  |      |   £0 |   £0
Jul-2017  |   £0 |      |     
Aug-2017  |      |   £0 |   £0
Sep-2017  |      |      |     
Oct-2017  |      |      |     
Nov-2017  |      |      |     
Dec-2017  |      |   £0 |   £0
Jan-2018  |      |      |     
Feb-2018  |   £0 |      |     
Mar-2018  |   £0 |      |     
Apr-2018  |      |      |     
May-2018  |      |      |     
Jun-2018  |      |      |   £0
Jul-2018  |      |      |   £0
Aug-2018  |      |      |     
Sep-2018  |      |      |     
Oct-2018  |      |      |     
Nov-2018  |      |      |     
Dec-2018  |      |      |     
Jan-2019  |      |      |     
Feb-2019  |      |      |     
Mar-2019  |      |      |     
Apr-2019  |      |      |     
May-2019  |      |      |     
Jun-2019  |   £0 |      |     
Jul-2019  |      |      |     
Aug-2019  |      |      |     
Sep-2019  |   £0 |   £0 |   £0
Oct-2019  |      |      |     
Nov-2019  |      |      |   £0
Dec-2019  |      |      |     
Jan-2020  |      |      |     
Feb-2020  |   £0 |      |   £0
Mar-2020  |      |      |   £0
Apr-2020  |      |      |     
May-2020  |      |      |     
Jun-2020  |      |      |     
Jul-2020  |      |   £0 |     
Aug-2020  |      |      |     
Sep-2020  |      |      |     
Oct-2020  |   £0 |   £0 |     
Nov-2020  |      |      |     
Dec-2020  |      |      |     
Jan-2021  |      |      |   £0
Feb-2021  |      |      |     
Mar-2021  |      |      |     
Apr-2021  |   £0 |      |     
May-2021  |      |      |     
Jun-2021  |      |      |     
Jul-2021  |      |      |     
Aug-2021  |   £0 |      |   £0
Sep-2021  |      |      |   £0
Oct-2021  |      |      |     
Nov-2021  |      |   £0 |     
Dec-2021  |      |      |     
Jan-2022  |   £0 |      |     
Feb-2022  |      |      |     
Mar-2022  |      |      |     
Apr-2022  |      |      |     
May-2022  |      |      |     
Jun-2022  |      |   £0 |     
Jul-2022  |      |      |     
Aug-2022  |      |      |     
Sep-2022  |      |      |     
Oct-2022  |      |      |     
Nov-2022  |      |      |     
Dec-2022  |      |      |     
Jan-2023  |      |      |   £0
Feb-2023  |      |      |     
Mar-2023  |      |      |   £0
Apr-2023  |      |      |     
May-2023  |      |   £0 |     
Jun-2023  |      |      |     
Jul-2023  |      |      |     
Aug-2023  |      |      |     
Sep-2023  |      |      |     
Oct-2023  |      |      |     
Nov-2023  |      |   £0 |     
Dec-2023  |      |      |     
          |      |      |     
Total £0s |   13 |   12 |   19
8 years   | 1.63 | 1.50 | 2.38

With grateful thanks to https://lemonfoolfinancialsoftware.weebly.com/tableformat.html

bots33 wrote:Thanks all for the replies - don't know if I have Xfool's patience!
It's helped set my leave criteria as 6 months without a win in a year, 4 consecutive months without a win, and <15 total prizes won in a year.

Average 22 prizes per year (Jan 2016-Dec 2023)

(3 max holdings, constitutent parts of total holdings purchased at different times - earliest 1968, and each holding made up of more than one purchase, but max holdings through the period noted).

According to NS&I, the odds of winning at least £25 – the lowest prize possible – are one in 21,000.

Does anyone remember has this always been the case?

kempiejon wrote:

According to NS&I, the odds of winning at least £25 – the lowest prize possible – are one in 21,000.

Does anyone remember has this always been the case?

In other words, the odds of winning a prize? No, it has changed over the years, it depends on a combination of the bond fund interest rate and how NS&I structures the prizes. Also the minimum prize has changed over the years. I think, originally it may have been £5 and it was £50 until a few years ago.

Odds I can remember are: 19,000 to 1 and 24,000 to 1 - which I think it was held fixed at for some years through various interest rate changes.

XFool wrote:In other words, the odds of winning a prize? No, it has changed over the years, it depends on a combination of the bond fund interest rate and how NS&I structures the prizes. Also the minimum prize has changed over the years. I think, originally it may have been £5 and it was £50 until a few years ago.

Odds I can remember are: 19,000 to 1 and 24,000 to 1 - which I think it was held fixed at for some years through various interest rate changes.

Thanks you, I wasn't interested in the effective interest rate nor size of the smallest prize so yes I meant just odds of winning any prize, you're right, you mention it now I do remember 24000:1

XFool wrote:

kempiejon wrote:Does anyone remember has this always been the case?

In other words, the odds of winning a prize? No, it has changed over the years, it depends on a combination of the bond fund interest rate and how NS&I structures the prizes. Also the minimum prize has changed over the years. I think, originally it may have been £5 and it was £50 until a few years ago.

Odds I can remember are: 19,000 to 1 and 24,000 to 1 - which I think it was held fixed at for some years through various interest rate changes.

Back when I won a £25 PB prize as a kid in the 1960s it changed my life. I could buy a new bike with that, and did. Now it just about buys a decent bottle of wine and is not going to motivate many people.

And I think the distribution of prizes reflects that. I have won each month so far but always £50 or more. £25 is too little.

Maybe those who treat PBs more like a savings account want a larger number of smaller prizes. But the lottery mentality is more about the lure of larger prizes. People prefer 1 chance of winning £5,000 than 50 chances of winning £100. Sales of lottery tickets soar when the prize pot is worth millions. It's all about the dream, no matter that statistically it is a negligible chance.

Lootman wrote:Back when I won a £25 PB prize as a kid in the 1960s it changed my life. I could buy a new bike with that, and did. Now it just about buys a decent bottle of wine and is not going to motivate many people.

Though the equivalent of £25 in 1965 is apparently £606.65 today. Which would buy you a bike still.

Mar 2024 draw details

Press release: https://nsandi-corporate.com/news-research/news/two-premium-bonds-holders-west-sussex-and-hampshire-celebrate-ps1-million

News item: https://www.lovemoney.com/news/13635/premium-bonds-winners-have-i-won

High value winners: https://www.nsandi.com/prize-checker/winners

Prize checker: https://www.nsandi.com/prize-checker (due 2 Mar 2024)

Bugger, missed the million again.

Not the longest-held bonds, but this person did well this month!

£5,000 24KZ434168 £10 Birmingham May-89

FanciThat wrote:Not the longest-held bonds, but this person did well this month!

£5,000 24KZ434168 £10 Birmingham May-89

Whenever I see a large prize on an old low value holding like this I wonder whether its a long forgotten holding that will never be paid out to anyone.

yorkshirelad1 wrote:Mar 2024 draw details

Prize checker: https://www.nsandi.com/prize-checker (due 2 Mar 2024)

Available at 23:50 on 1st March this time. (It still says February but the winnings are tor March

Adrian

1 x £25 + 1 x £50 = £75 on full holding.

Best wishes,

Steve

Not a zero month for me, happy to say! 1 x £100, 1 x £50 on full holding.

Tricia

My biggest win ever! £500 plus 2 @£100 and 2 @ £25 = £750 on full holding.

The OH £100 plus 2 @ £50 = £200 on full holding.

Suddenly I get breakfast made on a Saturday morning by the OH's fair hand. Any correlation?

T7

Back in the day I could have bought a nice little house for this

2 x £50 and 1 x £100 on full holding. Not bad but not brilliant.
How long have you held your bonds, Terminal? I've held mine for many years. There was a theory, probably nonsense, that in that case it was a good idea to sell them and buy new ones. My biggest wins, £1000 twice, were when I had just bought a very small holding.
I'll have to log out as an ocular migraine has just come on and I can see very little through the flashing zigzags.

Bouleversee wrote:I'll have to log out as an ocular migraine has just come on and I can see very little through the flashing zigzags.

Oh dear! Sorry to hear that... It sounds familiar - from the past, in my case.

Have you been having these for long? Do you get them frequently? Have you received medical attention and advice? Do you take medication?

Bouleversee wrote:2 x £50 and 1 x £100 on full holding. Not bad but not brilliant.
How long have you held your bonds, Terminal? I've held mine for many years. There was a theory, probably nonsense, that in that case it was a good idea to sell them and buy new ones. My biggest wins, £1000 twice, were when I had just bought a very small holding.
I'll have to log out as an ocular migraine has just come on and I can see very little through the flashing zigzags.

Hopefully your migraine and zigzags will pass. Your win is a bit better than about average luck isn't it, £200 per month on £50k is 4.8% PB quoted rate is 4.4%.
Nonsense, you called it. All that churning your pbs will do is put you out of the draw for a month or is it two?

XFool wrote:

Bouleversee wrote:I'll have to log out as an ocular migraine has just come on and I can see very little through the flashing zigzags.

Oh dear! Sorry to hear that... It sounds familiar - from the past, in my case.

Have you been having these for long? Do you get them frequently? Have you received medical attention and advice? Do you take medication?

I'll send you a private message or the mods will be admonishing me. It's already clearing.

kempiejon wrote:

Bouleversee wrote:2 x £50 and 1 x £100 on full holding. Not bad but not brilliant.
How long have you held your bonds, Terminal? I've held mine for many years. There was a theory, probably nonsense, that in that case it was a good idea to sell them and buy new ones. My biggest wins, £1000 twice, were when I had just bought a very small holding.
I'll have to log out as an ocular migraine has just come on and I can see very little through the flashing zigzags.

Hopefully your migraine and zigzags will pass. Your win is a bit better than about average luck isn't it, £200 per month on £50k is 4.8% PB quoted rate is 4.4%.
Nonsense, you called it. All that churning your pbs will do is put you out of the draw for a month or is it two?

I didn't say I was going to do it (far more important things to deal with at present) but 4.8% assumes that I win that amount every month, which I don't. I have had many months when I have won nothing or the odd £25 till the rates went up and I think they are going or have already gone down, aren't they?.