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Premium Bonds

Discussing offers, rates and deals on suppliers
richlist
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Re: Premium Bonds

#330979

Postby richlist » August 5th, 2020, 6:31 am

My wife & I have held £100K of p/bonds since last November. We are showing an annual adjusted return of 1%

Given the low rates of return elsewhere for savings, we don't think that is to bad.

Mike88
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Re: Premium Bonds

#331008

Postby Mike88 » August 5th, 2020, 9:08 am

One of my gym buddies recently bought bonds to the value of £20k and, in the first eligible month, won £25k. Given a couple of the earlier posts suggesting from anecdotal evidence that newer bonds are more successful the question is should we cash in our old holdings and repurchase bonds to the same value?

absolutezero
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Re: Premium Bonds

#331034

Postby absolutezero » August 5th, 2020, 10:27 am

Bouleversee wrote:Indeed. I might well withdraw mine as soon as the monthly draw has taken place and reinvest it,

You would miss a draw then.
You have to hold them for a entire calendar month (1st of the month to the final day of the month) to qualify.
Pull them out in August and you don't become eligible for draw until October.

kiloran
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Re: Premium Bonds

#331035

Postby kiloran » August 5th, 2020, 10:29 am

Mike88 wrote:One of my gym buddies recently bought bonds to the value of £20k and, in the first eligible month, won £25k. Given a couple of the earlier posts suggesting from anecdotal evidence that newer bonds are more successful the question is should we cash in our old holdings and repurchase bonds to the same value?

Makes no sense to me. The reason newer bonds tend to win most prizes is that most bonds were bought in recent years. Data from earlier this year showed that 77% of all bonds were bought between 2010 and 2019. Sales in April 2020 were three times the overage of the past few years.

Unless you believe in conspiracy theories, every bond has exactly the same chance of winning, regardless of age.

--kiloran

absolutezero
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Re: Premium Bonds

#331036

Postby absolutezero » August 5th, 2020, 10:31 am

Mike88 wrote:One of my gym buddies recently bought bonds to the value of £20k and, in the first eligible month, won £25k. Given a couple of the earlier posts suggesting from anecdotal evidence that newer bonds are more successful the question is should we cash in our old holdings and repurchase bonds to the same value?


The draw, we are told, is entirely random and based on electrical noise.

There are more newer bonds in existence they so are bound to be more successful. Not because they are new, but because there are more of them.

Like silver cars being the most likely colour to be involved in a crash. SIlver cars are no more unlucky. It's just the most common car colour.

absolutezero
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Re: Premium Bonds

#331040

Postby absolutezero » August 5th, 2020, 10:34 am

kiloran wrote:
Mike88 wrote:One of my gym buddies recently bought bonds to the value of £20k and, in the first eligible month, won £25k. Given a couple of the earlier posts suggesting from anecdotal evidence that newer bonds are more successful the question is should we cash in our old holdings and repurchase bonds to the same value?

Makes no sense to me. The reason newer bonds tend to win most prizes is that most bonds were bought in recent years. Data from earlier this year showed that 77% of all bonds were bought between 2010 and 2019. Sales in April 2020 were three times the overage of the past few years.

Unless you believe in conspiracy theories, every bond has exactly the same chance of winning, regardless of age.

--kiloran

Though they take the electrical noise and generate a number from it (exactly how?) and then they attempt to match it to a bond number - if there is a match then that bond wins.
Though nobody seems to know any more detail about exactly what goes on.

Is it possible that buying a huge block of 50,000 sequential bonds that all start with the same numbers and letters gives you a better chance of matching the random noise than 50,000 randomly scattered bonds?
Without more detail on the process, it's hard to say.

swill453
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Re: Premium Bonds

#331167

Postby swill453 » August 5th, 2020, 4:18 pm

absolutezero wrote:Though they take the electrical noise and generate a number from it (exactly how?) and then they attempt to match it to a bond number - if there is a match then that bond wins.
Though nobody seems to know any more detail about exactly what goes on.

Is it possible that buying a huge block of 50,000 sequential bonds that all start with the same numbers and letters gives you a better chance of matching the random noise than 50,000 randomly scattered bonds?
Without more detail on the process, it's hard to say.

Makes no sense to me. If it's random, it's random, and each bond has an equal chance in every draw.

If it's not random, we'd be being duped and would be mad to invest any money in it.

Scott.

mc2fool
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Re: Premium Bonds

#331172

Postby mc2fool » August 5th, 2020, 4:30 pm

Have I been missing it all these years and NS&I always attributed the Premium Bonds draw to a Roman emperor ?!?

Or am I the only one who on logging in is seeing, in the Premium Bonds panel on the dashboard, "Augustus's draw" ?! :lol:

kempiejon
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Re: Premium Bonds

#331203

Postby kempiejon » August 5th, 2020, 6:26 pm

3 x £25 my richest for a few months, finally convinced SO to move her 0.2% saver to PBs. The law of Sod suggest I'll be barren now and she'll grab prizes going forward.

Gersemi
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Re: Premium Bonds

#331236

Postby Gersemi » August 5th, 2020, 8:37 pm

kempiejon wrote:3 x £25 my richest for a few months, finally convinced SO to move her 0.2% saver to PBs. The law of Sod suggest I'll be barren now and she'll grab prizes going forward.


I would have thought the law of Sod would suggest that you continue to win prizes but she never wins anything! I try never to give my OH investing advice.

PinkDalek
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Re: Premium Bonds

#331264

Postby PinkDalek » August 5th, 2020, 11:25 pm

mc2fool wrote:Have I been missing it all these years and NS&I always attributed the Premium Bonds draw to a Roman emperor ?!?

Or am I the only one who on logging in is seeing, in the Premium Bonds panel on the dashboard, "Augustus's draw" ?! :lol:


Not sure how many of us bother logging in*** as such. I go via here https://www.nsandi.com/prize-checker and see:

August's results
You've won £50 in August 2020's draw
Draw date August 2020


*** Couldn't resit though and can now see the Roman history scholar has named the pontifex maximus.

Mike88
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Re: Premium Bonds

#337542

Postby Mike88 » September 2nd, 2020, 8:32 am

Nothing for me this month on £50k. I thought I would get something after topping up my holding in July but zilch. Disappointing.

Bouleversee
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Re: Premium Bonds

#337553

Postby Bouleversee » September 2nd, 2020, 9:17 am

1 x £25 on £50k.

didds
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Re: Premium Bonds

#337555

Postby didds » September 2nd, 2020, 9:25 am

3 x £25 for me on 50K
2 x £25 for mrs didds on 25K

AlumniLawn
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Re: Premium Bonds

#337567

Postby AlumniLawn » September 2nd, 2020, 9:55 am

5x£25 on £50k for me
1x£25 on £42k for Mrs
2x£25 on £15k for son
Nothing for daughter on £15k

Laughton
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Re: Premium Bonds

#337588

Postby Laughton » September 2nd, 2020, 10:52 am

4 X £25 for me on £50K
1 X £25 for Mrs Laughton on £50k

IRR for past year - 0.93% for me and 1.06% for Mrs L so, between us, as good as best bank instant access rate plus always the chance to one day capture a big win (all £25 wins so far).

Stompa
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Re: Premium Bonds

#337640

Postby Stompa » September 2nd, 2020, 1:00 pm

1x£25 on £1k.

So that's now £600 in total in 23 years.

swill453
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Re: Premium Bonds

#337643

Postby swill453 » September 2nd, 2020, 1:07 pm

Stompa wrote:1x£25 on £1k.

So that's now £600 in total in 23 years.

Wow, I think that's far more than the average or expected return. Did you win one big(gish) prize?

Scott.

Stompa
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Re: Premium Bonds

#337656

Postby Stompa » September 2nd, 2020, 1:50 pm

swill453 wrote:
Stompa wrote:1x£25 on £1k.

So that's now £600 in total in 23 years.

Wow, I think that's far more than the average or expected return. Did you win one big(gish) prize?

No, I meant a total winnings of £600 on a £1k holding over 23 years, which I think works out at an average of a little over 2% per year - so not that great!

swill453
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Re: Premium Bonds

#337665

Postby swill453 » September 2nd, 2020, 2:05 pm

Stompa wrote:
swill453 wrote:
Stompa wrote:1x£25 on £1k.

So that's now £600 in total in 23 years.

Wow, I think that's far more than the average or expected return. Did you win one big(gish) prize?

No, I meant a total winnings of £600 on a £1k holding over 23 years, which I think works out at an average of a little over 2% per year - so not that great!

I understood the 23 years bit.

Since it wasn't compounded it's about 2.6% per year, far more than the current prize fund rate of 1.4%.

Though I accept the rate was higher in the past, so maybe not so exceptional.

Scott.


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