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Premium Bonds

XFool
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Re: Premium Bonds

#249328

Postby XFool » September 4th, 2019, 6:02 pm

Gersemi wrote:So the article says 'smaller stakes . . . have a lower "interest rate" '. So if you look at 500 holders with £100 stakes and compare their combined winnings to one holder with a £50,000 holding over a period of time, they will on average win less? That doesn't sound right to me.

Well, if you combine the winnings of ALL the PB winners then you WILL get to a rate of 1.4% pa (or whatever). That DOES NOT mean that the typical PB holder with £100 gets 1.4%, they wont. Typically they will get ZERO.

The PBs are capped - max individual holding 50,000; max holding time one human lifetime. PLUS - the prizes are quantified NOT continuous.

To guarantee that 1.4% pa in winnings you would either have to:

Hold millions (billions?) of PBs for one year - you cannot.
Or
Hold your PBs for 100s of thousands (millions?) of years - you cannot.

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Re: Premium Bonds

#249330

Postby Gersemi » September 4th, 2019, 6:08 pm

XFool wrote:
Gersemi wrote:So the article says 'smaller stakes . . . have a lower "interest rate" '. So if you look at 500 holders with £100 stakes and compare their combined winnings to one holder with a £50,000 holding over a period of time, they will on average win less? That doesn't sound right to me.

Well, if you combine the winnings of ALL the PB winners then you WILL get to a rate of 1.4% pa (or whatever). That DOES NOT mean that the typical PB holder with £100 gets 1.4%, they wont. Typically they will get ZERO.

The PBs are capped - max individual holding 50,000; max holding time one human lifetime. PLUS - the prizes are quantified NOT continuous.

To guarantee that 1.4% pa in winnings you would either have to:

Hold millions (billions?) of PBs for one year - you cannot.
Or
Hold your PBs for 100s of thousands (millions?) of years - you cannot.


Ah, it seems to me to be the difference between mean and median. Most £50,000 holders will have a higher rate than most £100 holders over a year (because most £100 holders won't win at all). But those £100 holders that do win will win at least £25 and have a 25% rate of return - a result that very few £50,000 will match (though some will match or exceed).

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Re: Premium Bonds

#249332

Postby Bouleversee » September 4th, 2019, 6:21 pm

ReformedCharacter wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:I think one's chance of winning is improved if all one's bonds are in one block rather than split up into groups bought on different dates. I might sell all mine and repurchase in one block.

I wouldn't do that personally, as I think your reasoning is wrong. In fact you will I think miss out because:

Your Bonds become eligible for the draw one full calendar month after you buy them. So when you buy Bonds in November, they’ll be in every draw from January.

RC


Yes, I know that but I don't win a prize every month so if I sold after the draw had been done in one month and immediately bought back in one block I would only be out of the draw for one month during which I may not have won anyway. I did have £50k in one block at one time (had to sell to help a sprog with house purchase) and my impression was that I won more prizes then than since I repurchased in more than one block. I have no idea how ERNIE operates but if it is a sort of scattergun approach I just had a feeling it was more likely to drop a prize in a large area but perhaps I kid myself. Anyway, knowing me I'll never get round to it.

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Re: Premium Bonds

#249334

Postby XFool » September 4th, 2019, 6:30 pm

Bouleversee wrote:
ReformedCharacter wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:I think one's chance of winning is improved if all one's bonds are in one block rather than split up into groups bought on different dates. I might sell all mine and repurchase in one block.

I wouldn't do that personally, as I think your reasoning is wrong. In fact you will I think miss out because:

Your Bonds become eligible for the draw one full calendar month after you buy them. So when you buy Bonds in November, they’ll be in every draw from January.

RC

Yes, I know that but I don't win a prize every month so if I sold after the draw had been done in one month and immediately bought back in one block I would only be out of the draw for one month during which I may not have won anyway.

Or you may have won. So, AFAICS, you can only lose this way, there's no upside.

Bouleversee wrote: I did have £50k in one block at one time (had to sell to help a sprog with house purchase) and my impression was that I won more prizes then than since I repurchased in more than one block. I have no idea how ERNIE operates but if it is a sort of scattergun approach I just had a feeling it was more likely to drop a prize in a large area but perhaps I kid myself.

It's quite simple. ERNIE works by using a hardware generator of true random numbers. These are compared to existing bond holdings, if a match, it's a win.

This whole idea of blocks etc. is nonsense. Why? Because ERNIE doesn't know or care - it just generates random numbers, whatever you do.

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Re: Premium Bonds

#249343

Postby XFool » September 4th, 2019, 6:53 pm

XFool wrote:Just start with the current chance of winning any prize with one bond in one draw (now only 30,000 : 1?) and go from there to work out how many prizes you can reasonably expect to win in a year.

NS & I site still quotes PB odds as 24,500 : 1

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Re: Premium Bonds

#253304

Postby XFool » September 23rd, 2019, 2:08 pm

XFool wrote:The PBs are capped - max individual holding 50,000; max holding time one human lifetime. PLUS - the prizes are quantified NOT continuous.

Should of course have read:

The PBs are capped - max individual holding 50,000; max holding time one human lifetime. PLUS - the prizes are quantised NOT continuous.

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Re: Premium Bonds

#255354

Postby Bouleversee » October 2nd, 2019, 10:27 am

The October results are on the website. One measly £25 win this month. Hope other Fools have better luck.

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Re: Premium Bonds

#255357

Postby PinkDalek » October 2nd, 2019, 10:55 am

Bouleversee wrote:Hope other Fools have better luck.


Yes, thanks! :D

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Re: Premium Bonds

#255369

Postby Bouleversee » October 2nd, 2019, 11:57 am

How much better?

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Re: Premium Bonds

#255373

Postby PinkDalek » October 2nd, 2019, 12:07 pm

4 times. There’s always next month.

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Re: Premium Bonds

#255433

Postby terminal7 » October 2nd, 2019, 5:36 pm

Both maxed - pour moi (Welsh) a Big 0 - the OH (actually French) has 3 - sums up everything.

They come over here and take our PB prizes.

T7

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Re: Premium Bonds

#255437

Postby PinkDalek » October 2nd, 2019, 5:45 pm

terminal7 wrote: [They come over here and take our PB prizes.

T7


... and "We" win some of their EuroMillions (I think). :o

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Re: Premium Bonds

#260101

Postby XFool » October 25th, 2019, 11:33 am

PinkDalek wrote:4 times. There’s always next month.

I had eight prizes earlier in the year.

Can anyone here claim to have won the maximum number of PB prizes, for one person, in any one month?

Al last! Time for a legitimate poll? :shock:

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Re: Premium Bonds

#260110

Postby PinkDalek » October 25th, 2019, 12:07 pm

XFool wrote:Can anyone here claim to have won the maximum number of PB prizes, for one person, in any one month?


If a full holding, would that maximum number be 50,000 prizes in one month?

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Re: Premium Bonds

#260114

Postby NeilW » October 25th, 2019, 12:27 pm

Presumably http://premiumbondcalculator.com has already been mentioned.

A must visit for any probability nerds

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Re: Premium Bonds

#260117

Postby PinkDalek » October 25th, 2019, 12:40 pm

NeilW wrote:Presumably http://premiumbondcalculator.com has already been mentioned.


Yes, every so often, including by this poster of old:

viewtopic.php?p=44250#p44250

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Re: Premium Bonds

#260122

Postby NeilW » October 25th, 2019, 12:45 pm

I can't remember what I was doing five minutes ago any more, let alone two years. :D

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Re: Premium Bonds

#260125

Postby PinkDalek » October 25th, 2019, 1:03 pm

NeilW wrote:I can't remember what I was doing five minutes ago any more, let alone two years. :D


Yes, I know the feeling, and there's no harm in repeating such links every so often, especially as one can't get whole threads here.

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Re: Premium Bonds

#260201

Postby XFool » October 25th, 2019, 6:11 pm

PinkDalek wrote:
XFool wrote:Can anyone here claim to have won the maximum number of PB prizes, for one person, in any one month?

If a full holding, would that maximum number be 50,000 prizes in one month?

No. It would be "the highest number of PB prizes, for one person, in any one month".

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Re: Premium Bonds

#260204

Postby swill453 » October 25th, 2019, 6:32 pm

XFool wrote:No. It would be "the highest number of PB prizes, for one person, in any one month".

OK then, I'll kick off, I got seven once (November 2018). All £25 of course.

Scott.


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