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Brexit and house prices

Covering Market, Trends, and Practical (but see LEMON-AID for Building & DIY)
Nimrod103
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Re: Brexit and house prices

#188220

Postby Nimrod103 » December 20th, 2018, 8:25 am

Arborbridge wrote:If you are on zero hours contracts or earning minimum wage you don't have any affect on house prices.
Arb.


I guess you really do believe they live on the streets and under motorway flyovers then.

SalvorHardin
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Re: Brexit and house prices

#188234

Postby SalvorHardin » December 20th, 2018, 9:22 am

Arborbridge wrote:If you are on zero hours contracts or earning minimum wage you don't have any affect on house prices. Blaming immigrants is just the same ole same ole: disguised UKIP rhetoric which got us into this Brexit mess in the first place.
A country bvewitched by Farage which shot itself in the foot. As Corbyn said, "stupid people".

People who cannot afford to buy a house will still exert an effect on house prices. They need to stay somewhere (rented accomodation, lodging) which will increase the demand for accomodation. This will ripple through the system and the result is a rise in prices at all levels.

Now the rise may be imperceptible for one additional person, but it nonetheless happens. The only way it can't happen is if they live on the streets (but I suspect that even then this would push a few people off the streets and into rented accomodation).

Of course if the rate of building properties for new households exceeds the rate of formation of new households then this will push house prices down. Sure, it's more complex than that (quality of builds, location, multi-occupancy dwellings, etc.) but it's a basic principle of economics that if the demand for a thing increases then its price will increase.


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Re: Brexit and house prices

#188419

Postby Arborbridge » December 20th, 2018, 5:15 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:If you are on zero hours contracts or earning minimum wage you don't have any affect on house prices. Blaming immigrants is just the same ole same ole: disguised UKIP rhetoric which got us into this Brexit mess in the first place.
A country bvewitched by Farage which shot itself in the foot. As Corbyn said, "stupid people".

People who cannot afford to buy a house will still exert an effect on house prices. They need to stay somewhere (rented accomodation, lodging) which will increase the demand for accomodation. This will ripple through the system and the result is a rise in prices at all levels.

Now the rise may be imperceptible for one additional person, but it nonetheless happens. The only way it can't happen is if they live on the streets (but I suspect that even then this would push a few people off the streets and into rented accomodation).

Of course if the rate of building properties for new households exceeds the rate of formation of new households then this will push house prices down. Sure, it's more complex than that (quality of builds, location, multi-occupancy dwellings, etc.) but it's a basic principle of economics that if the demand for a thing increases then its price will increase.


Moderator Message:
Please don't tell other posters what to do or write. If something is out of kilter just hit alert and move on. regards, dspp


I don't disagree and I understand the mechanism full well.
What I objected to is the feeling that some people are blaming immigrants in general when these folk are necessary to run our economy and when the overwhelming majority are occupied in low paid work which none of the idigenous folk want to do. Instead of demonising them, we should be praising them. They are not the ones with the cash to splash into forcing up house prices: indeed a huge cohort are housed in modern multi-occupation slums with illegal landlords.

Without money being flung at folk at low interest rates and with gay abandon by banks over the past few decades, house prices could not rise, and those richer investors are the ones who can afford to overpay, not the ones at the bottom.

Some views expressed here smell of blaming the poor for the excesses of the rich. But then, I guess most people on here are in general at the "richer" end of the spectrum, so may have a particular point of view.

Arb.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#188424

Postby Charlottesquare » December 20th, 2018, 5:34 pm

Dod101 wrote:To me this argument is very simple. The population of the UK has grown hugely over the last 10/15 years. All these extra people are not living on the streets so they live somewhere, whether in rented accommodation, council housing or the modern equivalent, housing associations, renting private accommodation or buying. Any of these actions is increasing demand for some form of housing. That I think is percolating through the housing stock and increasing demand. The result is that there is a shortage between available supply and the demand, hence house prices rise. Brexit, if it happens, will make little difference in the short term but may suppress demand in a few years, but I think it will take a long while for the supply and demand to balance (if ever) so I do not see Brexit itself making a lot of difference. It depends though if Brexit induces a recession, then who knows, at least in the short term.

Dod


Do not forget the divorce led increased demand, as divorces and separations have increased more "couples" who might well have occupied one house occupy two, in addition it is far more common for children to spend more time with either parent hence both maintain family homes (when it can be afforded) with room for the whole family- my brother in law bought a two bedroom flat not a one bedroom specifically to have a room his son could call his own when staying with him and this is far more common than say 30-40 years ago- part of the housing demand increases has certainly been the result of the two house family post divorce etc.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#188441

Postby tjh290633 » December 20th, 2018, 6:22 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:Do not forget the divorce led increased demand, as divorces and separations have increased more "couples" who might well have occupied one house occupy two, in addition it is far more common for children to spend more time with either parent hence both maintain family homes (when it can be afforded) with room for the whole family- my brother in law bought a two bedroom flat not a one bedroom specifically to have a room his son could call his own when staying with him and this is far more common than say 30-40 years ago- part of the housing demand increases has certainly been the result of the two house family post divorce etc.

One factor may be the unwillingness or inability to go into lodgings, with someone who has a spare room. The tax allowance for this must be an encouragement to offer such accommodation. They seem to prefer to go into a self-contained apartment of some sort.

TJH

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#188789

Postby modellingman » December 22nd, 2018, 10:20 am

Whilst net immigration and the social trend of an increasing divorce rate do increase demand for housing, these are far from being the biggest drivers. This will be the increasing numbers of older people. The proportion of the population aged 65 or more will increase by around a third over the next quarter century from 18% to 24%. Older people tend to live in smaller households (as measured by the number of persons). So, whilst the population is projected to increase by around 12% over this timescale, for the number of households the figure is 17%.

One of the headlines from the latest(*) household projections is

Households headed by someone aged 65 years and over account for 88% of the total growth in households between 2016 and 2041.

(*) The link is to the ONS release dated 20 September 2018. The subsequent release dated 3 December 2018 simply added more detail about the household representative rates and headship rates underpinning the main projections in the earlier release. The methodological details were also published alongside the later release.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#188886

Postby GoSeigen » December 22nd, 2018, 10:04 pm

modellingman wrote:Whilst net immigration and the social trend of an increasing divorce rate do increase demand for housing, these are far from being the biggest drivers. This will be the increasing numbers of older people. The proportion of the population aged 65 or more will increase by around a third over the next quarter century from 18% to 24%. Older people tend to live in smaller households (as measured by the number of persons). So, whilst the population is projected to increase by around 12% over this timescale, for the number of households the figure is 17%.


modellingman, I remember your epic and interesting posts on TMF about the property ladder and how climbing the ladder would become more difficult as house prices rose and interest rates fell. Did you save a copy of those posts? If so, or otherwise, do you recall your forecasts and have they proved accurate in the meantime?'

GS

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#188907

Postby Spet0789 » December 23rd, 2018, 9:39 am

modellingman wrote:Whilst net immigration and the social trend of an increasing divorce rate do increase demand for housing, these are far from being the biggest drivers. This will be the increasing numbers of older people. The proportion of the population aged 65 or more will increase by around a third over the next quarter century from 18% to 24%. Older people tend to live in smaller households (as measured by the number of persons). So, whilst the population is projected to increase by around 12% over this timescale, for the number of households the figure is 17%.

One of the headlines from the latest(*) household projections is

Households headed by someone aged 65 years and over account for 88% of the total growth in households between 2016 and 2041.

(*) The link is to the ONS release dated 20 September 2018. The subsequent release dated 3 December 2018 simply added more detail about the household representative rates and headship rates underpinning the main projections in the earlier release. The methodological details were also published alongside the later release.


I completely agree. Many 3-5 bedroom houses are currently occupied by 1-2 older people. 30 years ago the house would have been ‘full’ with their children. Now their children all have their own homes, either owned or rented.

Just think within your own families how the same number of people probably occupy a far larger property footprint than they used to.

Blaming immigrants has for centuries been the easy way for the weak-minded to deflect blame rather than fix the problems of society.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#188960

Postby Charlottesquare » December 23rd, 2018, 3:15 pm

Spet0789 wrote:
modellingman wrote:Whilst net immigration and the social trend of an increasing divorce rate do increase demand for housing, these are far from being the biggest drivers. This will be the increasing numbers of older people. The proportion of the population aged 65 or more will increase by around a third over the next quarter century from 18% to 24%. Older people tend to live in smaller households (as measured by the number of persons). So, whilst the population is projected to increase by around 12% over this timescale, for the number of households the figure is 17%.

One of the headlines from the latest(*) household projections is

Households headed by someone aged 65 years and over account for 88% of the total growth in households between 2016 and 2041.

(*) The link is to the ONS release dated 20 September 2018. The subsequent release dated 3 December 2018 simply added more detail about the household representative rates and headship rates underpinning the main projections in the earlier release. The methodological details were also published alongside the later release.


I completely agree. Many 3-5 bedroom houses are currently occupied by 1-2 older people. 30 years ago the house would have been ‘full’ with their children. Now their children all have their own homes, either owned or rented.

Just think within your own families how the same number of people probably occupy a far larger property footprint than they used to.

Blaming immigrants has for centuries been the easy way for the weak-minded to deflect blame rather than fix the problems of society.


Part is down to availability- if you have spent a large part of your life in a larger house you often have lived in larger rooms and cannot face a modern rabbit hutch with its tiny sitting rooms/bedroms etc, there tends to be far fewer small houses (re number of rooms) with large rooms.

We are still in the same house we have been in since 1997, at least I have the excuse kids are at present back home, however will certainly lose one next year and possibly the other when she finishes her Msc. At that juncture there will be two of us rattling around a seven room plus kitchen and bathrooms property.

Catch is finding anything that ticks the boxes of what we would want, minimum two bed, sitting room and dining room, but double garage and decent size garden, ideally a bungalow (not so confident working up on ladders these days). There may be a few that fit the bill but most houses with a double garage have far more than two bedrooms, same with a large garden.

I have considered one smaller rural property and one small city flat and jump between the two but that hardly helps UK housing issues (our current second home is in Sweden but that may not work post Brexit)

Colleague at work is building his house for retirement to fit what he needs- four car garage, large garden, but frankly once you spend £150k or more on a plot you are , due to the economics, going to plonk the biggest house you can on the site- well at least up to say 4/5 bedrooms ( At which point often diminishing marginal additional value tends to kick in.)

Must admit I do fancy a Huf Haus, would give great impetus to declutter a lifetime's accumulation.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189011

Postby paulnumbers » December 23rd, 2018, 10:38 pm

Dod101 wrote:To me this argument is very simple. The population of the UK has grown hugely over the last 10/15 years. All these extra people are not living on the streets so they live somewhere, whether in rented accommodation, council housing or the modern equivalent, housing associations, renting private accommodation or buying. Any of these actions is increasing demand for some form of housing. That I think is percolating through the housing stock and increasing demand. The result is that there is a shortage between available supply and the demand, hence house prices rise. Brexit, if it happens, will make little difference in the short term but may suppress demand in a few years, but I think it will take a long while for the supply and demand to balance (if ever) so I do not see Brexit itself making a lot of difference. It depends though if Brexit induces a recession, then who knows, at least in the short term.

Dod


My thoughts exactly, and it was also the main reason I voted for Brexit. Absolutely selfish on my part, but if successive governments would not deal
with the housing issues, this seemed like the only policy that might help.

I finally bought a place to live in London last week. Going forward from a personal perspective I dont really care what happens to prices, but many young people
om society would be greatly helped by a large and sustained fall.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189012

Postby Spet0789 » December 23rd, 2018, 10:47 pm

paulnumbers wrote:
Dod101 wrote:To me this argument is very simple. The population of the UK has grown hugely over the last 10/15 years. All these extra people are not living on the streets so they live somewhere, whether in rented accommodation, council housing or the modern equivalent, housing associations, renting private accommodation or buying. Any of these actions is increasing demand for some form of housing. That I think is percolating through the housing stock and increasing demand. The result is that there is a shortage between available supply and the demand, hence house prices rise. Brexit, if it happens, will make little difference in the short term but may suppress demand in a few years, but I think it will take a long while for the supply and demand to balance (if ever) so I do not see Brexit itself making a lot of difference. It depends though if Brexit induces a recession, then who knows, at least in the short term.

Dod


My thoughts exactly, and it was also the main reason I voted for Brexit. Absolutely selfish on my part, but if successive governments would not deal
with the housing issues, this seemed like the only policy that might help.

I finally bought a place to live in London last week. Going forward from a personal perspective I dont really care what happens to prices, but many young people
om society would be greatly helped by a large and sustained fall.


Excessive house prices are largely a function of easy availability of credit and insufficient supply of the right stock. As I said up-thread...blaming immigrants has for centuries been the easy way for the weak-minded to deflect blame rather than fix the problems of society.

In our case, the failure to reform planning laws, improve transport links and foster economic activity outside London and the South East. Not sure how Brexit will help, especially given that the main restriction on housebuilding is a shortage of skilled labour.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189018

Postby Dod101 » December 23rd, 2018, 11:14 pm

Spet0789 wrote:[
Excessive house prices are largely a function of easy availability of credit and insufficient supply of the right stock. As I said up-thread...blaming immigrants has for centuries been the easy way for the weak-minded to deflect blame rather than fix the problems of society.


If it is a societal problem, then we might as well give up and simply accept it because I doubt that it will changer. if only it were a problem of immigrants........

Dod

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189020

Postby Spet0789 » December 23rd, 2018, 11:47 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Spet0789 wrote:[
Excessive house prices are largely a function of easy availability of credit and insufficient supply of the right stock. As I said up-thread...blaming immigrants has for centuries been the easy way for the weak-minded to deflect blame rather than fix the problems of society.


If it is a societal problem, then we might as well give up and simply accept it because I doubt that it will changer. if only it were a problem of immigrants........

Dod


Why be so defeatist? Planning policy, for example, has barely changed since the 1950s. Entirely a domestic policy issue. EU conspiracy theories need not apply.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189022

Postby Dod101 » December 24th, 2018, 12:02 am

Spet0789 wrote:Why be so defeatist? Planning policy, for example, has barely changed since the 1950s. Entirely a domestic policy issue. EU conspiracy theories need not apply.


Not sadly an entirely domestic problem, unless you consider the unrestricted EU immigration issue to be something to be entirely ignored. Only someone with no brain would do that surely?

Planning policy? Cover more and more of perfectly good farming land in houses? Good idea? No, I at least, do not think so.

Dod

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189028

Postby Charlottesquare » December 24th, 2018, 3:18 am

paulnumbers wrote:
Dod101 wrote:To me this argument is very simple. The population of the UK has grown hugely over the last 10/15 years. All these extra people are not living on the streets so they live somewhere, whether in rented accommodation, council housing or the modern equivalent, housing associations, renting private accommodation or buying. Any of these actions is increasing demand for some form of housing. That I think is percolating through the housing stock and increasing demand. The result is that there is a shortage between available supply and the demand, hence house prices rise. Brexit, if it happens, will make little difference in the short term but may suppress demand in a few years, but I think it will take a long while for the supply and demand to balance (if ever) so I do not see Brexit itself making a lot of difference. It depends though if Brexit induces a recession, then who knows, at least in the short term.

Dod


My thoughts exactly, and it was also the main reason I voted for Brexit. Absolutely selfish on my part, but if successive governments would not deal
with the housing issues, this seemed like the only policy that might help.

I finally bought a place to live in London last week. Going forward from a personal perspective I dont really care what happens to prices, but many young people
om society would be greatly helped by a large and sustained fall.


Only if mortgages are available that they can obtain, if a large price fall leads to lenders demanding a larger percentage deposit, as safety re their lending, it may just be good for cash rich investors.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189032

Postby GoSeigen » December 24th, 2018, 7:09 am

Charlottesquare wrote:Only if mortgages are available that they can obtain, if a large price fall leads to lenders demanding a larger percentage deposit, as safety re their lending, it may just be good for cash rich investors.


Bring it on... would love that scenario...

UK population doubled every 25 years in the 19th century, immigration will take c200 years to double the population at its recent pace.
Dod, you need to look at the actual statistics on immigration and population growth, not just the DM headline huffery.

GS

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189041

Postby Dod101 » December 24th, 2018, 8:46 am

GoSeigen wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:Only if mortgages are available that they can obtain, if a large price fall leads to lenders demanding a larger percentage deposit, as safety re their lending, it may just be good for cash rich investors.


Bring it on... would love that scenario...

UK population doubled every 25 years in the 19th century, immigration will take c200 years to double the population at its recent pace.
Dod, you need to look at the actual statistics on immigration and population growth, not just the DM headline huffery.


I assume you are correct in your stats about the 19th century but these were very different conditions then, when we were expanding all sorts of industries at that time as the workshop of the world and all that. Anyway that was then. We are a rather crowded island here nowadays and do not need extra people joining us. I am not anti immigrants per se just as long as they integrate but I simply think that we do not have space for them. The population in my small town is set to double in the next few years and already we see pressure in all the usual places and it is significantly changing the nature of the place.

Dod

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189042

Postby Dod101 » December 24th, 2018, 8:56 am

ap8889 wrote:I don’t want more farming land. I can afford to import my food needs from places that have loads of space and sunshine. Places like Vietnam get three crops a year from the Mekong delta. Compared to that, the vast area of UK land set aside to produce a tiny amount of mutton and lamb with the aid of subsidy seems to be a misallocation.

I want a place to live that I can afford to buy, that can be extended if necessary to take in my elderly parents or new kids, that doesn’t have to match the same tiles, windows and bricks as the neighbours chose in the 1850s. Other places manage that, why can’t the UK?


You will be pleased therefore that you are not going to get more farm land, that's for sure, at least not in the UK. I cannot say that I think the current system of farming subsidies is a good idea, but to import food from Vietnam is not exactly going to help the planet and we do not need more rice from there either. I thought you, ap8889, were an advocate of leaving the EU. Standing on our feet and all that? Yet depending on imports from several thousands of miles away? You can afford to import your food. The trouble is that the UK in general has a balance of payments problem and the planet has a greenhouse gases problem. Importing food from Vietnam is not going to help either.

Clearly you must be living in the wrong part of the UK if you cannot find housing to meet your fairly modest requirements.

Dod

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189074

Postby Nimrod103 » December 24th, 2018, 11:25 am

It would help housing supply if the costs of moving were reduced. Stamp duty is a big disincentive to move - it reduces the attraction of buying medium to large houses, and in my area is encouraging a huge increase in house extension (up, down and sideways).

My impression travelling around is that we currently have high rates of new house building, and house enlargement throughout the country. In my own county of Kent, there are large new housing estates currently being added to my town and several others. I have just come down from Norfolk where the market towns I drove through are all being expanded, Last summer I was in the Cotswolds, and almost every village had new building in evidence. Given this, there is absolutely no reason for high prices, unless demand is still outstripping supply.

However, in all the areas of these new builds, there is no expenditure on infrastructure. Almost no new roads. No new railways. No new bus routes. Only more cars and congestion. No new schools with playing fields - the single new primary school built in my town just as a little yard, and people seem to think that is OK!!.

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Re: Brexit and house prices

#189118

Postby Charlottesquare » December 24th, 2018, 1:48 pm

GoSeigen wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:Only if mortgages are available that they can obtain, if a large price fall leads to lenders demanding a larger percentage deposit, as safety re their lending, it may just be good for cash rich investors.


Bring it on... would love that scenario...

UK population doubled every 25 years in the 19th century, immigration will take c200 years to double the population at its recent pace.
Dod, you need to look at the actual statistics on immigration and population growth, not just the DM headline huffery.

GS


You will long term possibly not love it if, after years of a generation being priced out of their desires, that generation becomes the one in control, as is already partly the case and will continue more as each year passes.

The Scottish Government has already introduced rent capping and tenant rights to remain/tenure into law (2016 Housing Act) and we have of course extra SDLT/LBTT for landlords/investors, the rent capping has just not been implemented yet, however the trend to control landlords and bind them into compliance is going to keep continuing- we were in the market quite early, building to rent in the mid 1990s, a 27 flat and a 34 flat block, we are now out of residential letting as are a fair few other private operators who operated in the local market up here.

Smaller landlords like us (private property companies) are being replaced in the market by the pension funds etc ,building to rent on a much grander scale, down the road from me there is a 200 flat build to rent development virtually complete and all the more recent student accommodation blocks are built/designed so that if the student rental market implodes (which it will- there are far too many being built) they will be switched to studio rentals to the wider public

Whilst it may take some time coming the amateur DIY investor with say up to a dozen flats, will gradually become fewer and fewer, compliance, red tape, funding strictures, licensing will push them out, and the sorts of properties they own, one in one street one in another will not be snapped up by the new professional landlords who will want easier managed entire blocks.

Beware the Ides of March.


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