Arborbridge wrote:If you are on zero hours contracts or earning minimum wage you don't have any affect on house prices.
Arb.
I guess you really do believe they live on the streets and under motorway flyovers then.
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Arborbridge wrote:If you are on zero hours contracts or earning minimum wage you don't have any affect on house prices.
Arb.
Arborbridge wrote:If you are on zero hours contracts or earning minimum wage you don't have any affect on house prices. Blaming immigrants is just the same ole same ole: disguised UKIP rhetoric which got us into this Brexit mess in the first place.
A country bvewitched by Farage which shot itself in the foot. As Corbyn said, "stupid people".
SalvorHardin wrote:Arborbridge wrote:If you are on zero hours contracts or earning minimum wage you don't have any affect on house prices. Blaming immigrants is just the same ole same ole: disguised UKIP rhetoric which got us into this Brexit mess in the first place.
A country bvewitched by Farage which shot itself in the foot. As Corbyn said, "stupid people".
People who cannot afford to buy a house will still exert an effect on house prices. They need to stay somewhere (rented accomodation, lodging) which will increase the demand for accomodation. This will ripple through the system and the result is a rise in prices at all levels.
Now the rise may be imperceptible for one additional person, but it nonetheless happens. The only way it can't happen is if they live on the streets (but I suspect that even then this would push a few people off the streets and into rented accomodation).
Of course if the rate of building properties for new households exceeds the rate of formation of new households then this will push house prices down. Sure, it's more complex than that (quality of builds, location, multi-occupancy dwellings, etc.) but it's a basic principle of economics that if the demand for a thing increases then its price will increase.Moderator Message:
Please don't tell other posters what to do or write. If something is out of kilter just hit alert and move on. regards, dspp
Dod101 wrote:To me this argument is very simple. The population of the UK has grown hugely over the last 10/15 years. All these extra people are not living on the streets so they live somewhere, whether in rented accommodation, council housing or the modern equivalent, housing associations, renting private accommodation or buying. Any of these actions is increasing demand for some form of housing. That I think is percolating through the housing stock and increasing demand. The result is that there is a shortage between available supply and the demand, hence house prices rise. Brexit, if it happens, will make little difference in the short term but may suppress demand in a few years, but I think it will take a long while for the supply and demand to balance (if ever) so I do not see Brexit itself making a lot of difference. It depends though if Brexit induces a recession, then who knows, at least in the short term.
Dod
Charlottesquare wrote:Do not forget the divorce led increased demand, as divorces and separations have increased more "couples" who might well have occupied one house occupy two, in addition it is far more common for children to spend more time with either parent hence both maintain family homes (when it can be afforded) with room for the whole family- my brother in law bought a two bedroom flat not a one bedroom specifically to have a room his son could call his own when staying with him and this is far more common than say 30-40 years ago- part of the housing demand increases has certainly been the result of the two house family post divorce etc.
modellingman wrote:Whilst net immigration and the social trend of an increasing divorce rate do increase demand for housing, these are far from being the biggest drivers. This will be the increasing numbers of older people. The proportion of the population aged 65 or more will increase by around a third over the next quarter century from 18% to 24%. Older people tend to live in smaller households (as measured by the number of persons). So, whilst the population is projected to increase by around 12% over this timescale, for the number of households the figure is 17%.
modellingman wrote:Whilst net immigration and the social trend of an increasing divorce rate do increase demand for housing, these are far from being the biggest drivers. This will be the increasing numbers of older people. The proportion of the population aged 65 or more will increase by around a third over the next quarter century from 18% to 24%. Older people tend to live in smaller households (as measured by the number of persons). So, whilst the population is projected to increase by around 12% over this timescale, for the number of households the figure is 17%.
One of the headlines from the latest(*) household projections is
Households headed by someone aged 65 years and over account for 88% of the total growth in households between 2016 and 2041.
(*) The link is to the ONS release dated 20 September 2018. The subsequent release dated 3 December 2018 simply added more detail about the household representative rates and headship rates underpinning the main projections in the earlier release. The methodological details were also published alongside the later release.
Spet0789 wrote:modellingman wrote:Whilst net immigration and the social trend of an increasing divorce rate do increase demand for housing, these are far from being the biggest drivers. This will be the increasing numbers of older people. The proportion of the population aged 65 or more will increase by around a third over the next quarter century from 18% to 24%. Older people tend to live in smaller households (as measured by the number of persons). So, whilst the population is projected to increase by around 12% over this timescale, for the number of households the figure is 17%.
One of the headlines from the latest(*) household projections is
Households headed by someone aged 65 years and over account for 88% of the total growth in households between 2016 and 2041.
(*) The link is to the ONS release dated 20 September 2018. The subsequent release dated 3 December 2018 simply added more detail about the household representative rates and headship rates underpinning the main projections in the earlier release. The methodological details were also published alongside the later release.
I completely agree. Many 3-5 bedroom houses are currently occupied by 1-2 older people. 30 years ago the house would have been ‘full’ with their children. Now their children all have their own homes, either owned or rented.
Just think within your own families how the same number of people probably occupy a far larger property footprint than they used to.
Blaming immigrants has for centuries been the easy way for the weak-minded to deflect blame rather than fix the problems of society.
Dod101 wrote:To me this argument is very simple. The population of the UK has grown hugely over the last 10/15 years. All these extra people are not living on the streets so they live somewhere, whether in rented accommodation, council housing or the modern equivalent, housing associations, renting private accommodation or buying. Any of these actions is increasing demand for some form of housing. That I think is percolating through the housing stock and increasing demand. The result is that there is a shortage between available supply and the demand, hence house prices rise. Brexit, if it happens, will make little difference in the short term but may suppress demand in a few years, but I think it will take a long while for the supply and demand to balance (if ever) so I do not see Brexit itself making a lot of difference. It depends though if Brexit induces a recession, then who knows, at least in the short term.
Dod
paulnumbers wrote:Dod101 wrote:To me this argument is very simple. The population of the UK has grown hugely over the last 10/15 years. All these extra people are not living on the streets so they live somewhere, whether in rented accommodation, council housing or the modern equivalent, housing associations, renting private accommodation or buying. Any of these actions is increasing demand for some form of housing. That I think is percolating through the housing stock and increasing demand. The result is that there is a shortage between available supply and the demand, hence house prices rise. Brexit, if it happens, will make little difference in the short term but may suppress demand in a few years, but I think it will take a long while for the supply and demand to balance (if ever) so I do not see Brexit itself making a lot of difference. It depends though if Brexit induces a recession, then who knows, at least in the short term.
Dod
My thoughts exactly, and it was also the main reason I voted for Brexit. Absolutely selfish on my part, but if successive governments would not deal
with the housing issues, this seemed like the only policy that might help.
I finally bought a place to live in London last week. Going forward from a personal perspective I dont really care what happens to prices, but many young people
om society would be greatly helped by a large and sustained fall.
Spet0789 wrote:[
Excessive house prices are largely a function of easy availability of credit and insufficient supply of the right stock. As I said up-thread...blaming immigrants has for centuries been the easy way for the weak-minded to deflect blame rather than fix the problems of society.
Dod101 wrote:Spet0789 wrote:[
Excessive house prices are largely a function of easy availability of credit and insufficient supply of the right stock. As I said up-thread...blaming immigrants has for centuries been the easy way for the weak-minded to deflect blame rather than fix the problems of society.
If it is a societal problem, then we might as well give up and simply accept it because I doubt that it will changer. if only it were a problem of immigrants........
Dod
Spet0789 wrote:Why be so defeatist? Planning policy, for example, has barely changed since the 1950s. Entirely a domestic policy issue. EU conspiracy theories need not apply.
paulnumbers wrote:Dod101 wrote:To me this argument is very simple. The population of the UK has grown hugely over the last 10/15 years. All these extra people are not living on the streets so they live somewhere, whether in rented accommodation, council housing or the modern equivalent, housing associations, renting private accommodation or buying. Any of these actions is increasing demand for some form of housing. That I think is percolating through the housing stock and increasing demand. The result is that there is a shortage between available supply and the demand, hence house prices rise. Brexit, if it happens, will make little difference in the short term but may suppress demand in a few years, but I think it will take a long while for the supply and demand to balance (if ever) so I do not see Brexit itself making a lot of difference. It depends though if Brexit induces a recession, then who knows, at least in the short term.
Dod
My thoughts exactly, and it was also the main reason I voted for Brexit. Absolutely selfish on my part, but if successive governments would not deal
with the housing issues, this seemed like the only policy that might help.
I finally bought a place to live in London last week. Going forward from a personal perspective I dont really care what happens to prices, but many young people
om society would be greatly helped by a large and sustained fall.
Charlottesquare wrote:Only if mortgages are available that they can obtain, if a large price fall leads to lenders demanding a larger percentage deposit, as safety re their lending, it may just be good for cash rich investors.
GoSeigen wrote:Charlottesquare wrote:Only if mortgages are available that they can obtain, if a large price fall leads to lenders demanding a larger percentage deposit, as safety re their lending, it may just be good for cash rich investors.
Bring it on... would love that scenario...
UK population doubled every 25 years in the 19th century, immigration will take c200 years to double the population at its recent pace.
Dod, you need to look at the actual statistics on immigration and population growth, not just the DM headline huffery.
ap8889 wrote:I don’t want more farming land. I can afford to import my food needs from places that have loads of space and sunshine. Places like Vietnam get three crops a year from the Mekong delta. Compared to that, the vast area of UK land set aside to produce a tiny amount of mutton and lamb with the aid of subsidy seems to be a misallocation.
I want a place to live that I can afford to buy, that can be extended if necessary to take in my elderly parents or new kids, that doesn’t have to match the same tiles, windows and bricks as the neighbours chose in the 1850s. Other places manage that, why can’t the UK?
GoSeigen wrote:Charlottesquare wrote:Only if mortgages are available that they can obtain, if a large price fall leads to lenders demanding a larger percentage deposit, as safety re their lending, it may just be good for cash rich investors.
Bring it on... would love that scenario...
UK population doubled every 25 years in the 19th century, immigration will take c200 years to double the population at its recent pace.
Dod, you need to look at the actual statistics on immigration and population growth, not just the DM headline huffery.
GS
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