The Lemon Fool

eventide wrote:


Graph of upcoming ofgem caps (if nothing changes, which is debatable) and likely electricity and gas unit prices. I tried to inline this image but I guess the board disallows this.

Standing charge adds around £200 more to your own consumption volumes * unit prices

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa6xk5SX0AAKLLu?format=jpg&name=900x900

What a fantastic post eventide. Great chart.....bingo!

I can now plug in my annual usage and, using those predicted unit rates, work out my own cap.

Just one point, do you know the usage split between electricity & gas for the chart.

eventide wrote:


Graph of upcoming ofgem caps (if nothing changes, which is debatable) and likely electricity and gas unit prices. I tried to inline this image but I guess the board disallows this.

Standing charge adds around £200 more to your own consumption volumes * unit prices

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa6xk5SX0AAKLLu?format=jpg&name=900x900

Gas at 27p/kWh will lead to some meter tampering and houses going ‘bang’ but over £1/kWh then lots of electricity meters are definitely going to get fiddled with and more than a few houses will burn down.

AF62 wrote:Gas at 27p/kWh will lead to some meter tampering and houses going ‘bang’ but over £1/kWh then lots of electricity meters are definitely going to get fiddled with and more than a few houses will burn down.

Well the chart shows the quarterly cost to HMT of subsidising to avoid this at the equivalent of £2k/annum for standard usage of 12,000 gas and 2,900 elec.

The politics of it are very complicated
- subsidies are expensive, untargeted, won't encourage energy saving, but will lessen risk of civil unrest in all forms.
- targeting help properly is hard (hence all that wierd stuff about GPs who most interact with the needy).
- If you can afford it at > 6k cap equivalent, should you have to pay?
- gas futures prices dont show a return to prices implying < £2k cap until 2026
- Putin could turn the tap on in a week and prices would collapse. What would you agree to give him in return?

scotview wrote:
Just one point, do you know the usage split between electricity & gas for the chart.

Ofgem cap assumes 12,000 kWh gas and £2,900 kWh electricity for a standard user
The standing charge is around another £200

eventide wrote:

AF62 wrote:Gas at 27p/kWh will lead to some meter tampering and houses going ‘bang’ but over £1/kWh then lots of electricity meters are definitely going to get fiddled with and more than a few houses will burn down.

Well the chart shows the quarterly cost to HMT of subsidising to avoid this at the equivalent of £2k/annum for standard usage of 12,000 gas and 2,900 elec.

The politics of it are very complicated
- subsidies are expensive, untargeted, won't encourage energy saving, but will lessen risk of civil unrest in all forms.
- targeting help properly is hard (hence all that wierd stuff about GPs who most interact with the needy).
- If you can afford it at > 6k cap equivalent, should you have to pay?
- gas futures prices dont show a return to prices implying < £2k cap until 2026
- Putin could turn the tap on in a week and prices would collapse. What would you agree to give him in return?

As you say, complicated.

But for a ‘here today, gone tomorrow’ tenant in a rented property who is earning minimum wage, then £50 paid to a ‘bloke in the pub’ to bypass the meters is going to be awfully tempting - and who are the utility companies going to chase to get the money they will never be paid.

eventide wrote:The politics of it are very complicated

Eventide, you seem to be "in the know".

I am looking at a solution for a backup heating supply. One of which is installing a balanced flue gas stove with battery, piezo ignition. What do you think is the probability of domestic gas users loosing gas supplies or mains gas pressures falling below safe levels. Sorry for going OT a little but I thought I would get your opinion on this one.

scotview wrote:
Eventide, you seem to be "in the know".

I am looking at a solution for a backup heating supply. One of which is installing a balanced flue gas stove with battery, piezo ignition. What do you think is the probability of domestic gas users loosing gas supplies or mains gas pressures falling below safe levels. Sorry for going OT a little but I thought I would get your opinion on this one.

Genuinely know nothing which could help here sorry.

Snorvey wrote:I'm guessing your main heating provision is electricity, via E7?

Yes, that's correct.

In which case I'd expect your usage to be a good bit above the average, compensated by lower gas (or maybe you have no gas?) usage.

No gas, only electricity. But my usage is well above the 'muti register' average. Which is confusing. The house isn't big, and it's not old and I have insulated it + double glazing etc

I reckon a fair number of E7 users don't use electricity as the main heat source and are on E7 as that's what the meters happened to be, or perhaps they charge EVs or do washing etc overnight. This would skew the average downwards.

I think your right.

We have a dual rate meter, and gas. Our 2 rates are both the same, and we have no idea why the previous owners had it set up as dual rate. In the last 12 months we've used 3510kWh day and 580kWh night. Then again we have a couple of fish tanks which heat during the winter, and MrsF WFH has a fan heater. Gas OTOH was 28,000 kWh last year

scotview wrote:What do you think is the probability of domestic gas users loosing gas supplies or mains gas pressures falling below safe levels. Sorry for going OT a little but I thought I would get your opinion on this one.

I think nil.
The problems of domestic appliances going off, air in the mains, I am sure the govt will do whatever is necessary to avoid that.

V8

didds wrote:

Dod101 wrote:Indeed and I get very annoyed with the news reports as if the regulator was specifying £4,232 (say) as the maximum payable (or even the minimum) when what he is actually doing is setting a maximum charge per KWH for electricity and a similar charge per unit for gas. How that actually works out per consumer depends entirely on how much they use and that of course on a whole host of individual factors.

Absolutely Dod. This "energy price cap at £X" is a meaningless statement/figure.

didds

It's a campaigning figure.

Which is why it's disgraceful that it gets reported as if it were objective fact.

88V8 wrote:

Stompa wrote:Currently Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCV) ...4,200 kWh per year for electricity (multi-register) ...

I only started keeping Excel records in 018, but since then on E7 in our all-electric cottage we've used 11,000, 12,800, 15,700 and 13,700kw.
So I suppose we might be paying a bit more than average after our fixed-rate expires.
I'll suggest the wife grows a few more cucumbers to offset the cost.

V8

We are "All Electric" - We expect to use ~8000 kWh per annum.

(One day I will convince British Gas to change the tariff to E7...I've only asked them 4 times).

eventide wrote:- Putin could turn the tap on in a week and prices would collapse. What would you agree to give him in return?

They'll fall significantly, but there were warnings from a year ago about likely gas shortages/price rises, so that isn't the only cause. This is from the FT: https://twitter.com/OilSheppard/status/ ... 2807532547

I agree prices would improve if the taps were back turned on , but I doubt they would collapse
Putin will have to spend a lot getting his economy back to some sort of order and his priority will be just that, not helping the west get sorted

any advantage would be maintained if at all possible

eventide wrote:

scotview wrote:
Just one point, do you know the usage split between electricity & gas for the chart.

Ofgem cap assumes 12,000 kWh gas and £2,900 kWh electricity for a standard user
The standing charge is around another £200

Is it?

My own standing charge is 49.19p per day for leccy. I don't has gas here but in one of my rentals I just had it put back on and the standing charge there (prepay meter - don't ask!) is about 40p per day IIRC although I don't have the exact figure to hand.

Point is though, adding those two figures together I make the standing charge for a gas+leccy user 89.19p per day, or £325.54 per year.

Mike4 wrote:

eventide wrote:

scotview wrote:
Just one point, do you know the usage split between electricity & gas for the chart.

Ofgem cap assumes 12,000 kWh gas and £2,900 kWh electricity for a standard user
The standing charge is around another £200

Is it?

My own standing charge is 49.19p per day for leccy. I don't has gas here but in one of my rentals I just had it put back on and the standing charge there (prepay meter - don't ask!) is about 40p per day IIRC although I don't have the exact figure to hand.

Point is though, adding those two figures together I make the standing charge for a gas+leccy user 89.19p per day, or £325.54 per year.

I've just checked my supplier's website on the back of this post (I'll check the bill when I'm next bothered)
And their standing charges for new customers are about the same
- possibly a tad higher (given the fall of the pound recently)

Thing is (and the bit that really sticks in my craw) is that there's nothing I can do about it - and where I am the money goes to China

servodude wrote:

Mike4 wrote:

eventide wrote:

scotview wrote:
Just one point, do you know the usage split between electricity & gas for the chart.

Ofgem cap assumes 12,000 kWh gas and £2,900 kWh electricity for a standard user
The standing charge is around another £200

Is it?

My own standing charge is 49.19p per day for leccy. I don't has gas here but in one of my rentals I just had it put back on and the standing charge there (prepay meter - don't ask!) is about 40p per day IIRC although I don't have the exact figure to hand.

Point is though, adding those two figures together I make the standing charge for a gas+leccy user 89.19p per day, or £325.54 per year.

I've just checked my supplier's website on the back of this post (I'll check the bill when I'm next bothered)
And their standing charges for new customers are about the same
- possibly a tad higher (given the fall of the pound recently)


Thing is (and the bit that really sticks in my craw) is that there's nothing I can do about it - and where I am the money goes to China

Prolly not practical, but one possible way to half the standing charge is the cancel the gas contract and go all electric (heat pump etc), or electric and oil.

Or even generate your own leccy with a diesel genny. Or do your own heat and power together with an oil-fired CHP unit.


(Edit to sort out my formatting.)

eventide wrote:Ofgem cap assumes 12,000 kWh gas and £2,900 kWh electricity for a standard user
The standing charge is around another £200

You say 'another' £200, but surely the standing charge is included in the price cap? So, for an average user, it's a cap on the total bill (unit costs + standing charges).

Stompa wrote:

eventide wrote:Ofgem cap assumes 12,000 kWh gas and £2,900 kWh electricity for a standard user
The standing charge is around another £200

You say 'another' £200, but surely the standing charge is included in the price cap? So, for an average user, it's a cap on the total bill (unit costs + standing charges).

Yes the single cap figure includes the standing charge. But if you want to work out YOUR estimated bill based on the cap, you would need the separate breakdowns of gas unit price, electricity unit price, and standing charge and apply them to your own usage numbers in the quarter. These unit prices are on the following graph. They are "illustrative" as it varies by region etc, but it makes for a reasonable estimate.

For example, if you actually use 4,000 kWh of electricity and 25,000 kWh of gas, and if no one intervenes, your annual bill for 2023 will be:

Q1 (assume 40% of total volume): (80p x 4000 + 20p x 25000) x 40% + 200/4 = £3,330
Q2 (assume 20% of total volume): (118p x 4000 + 30p x 25000) x 20% + 200/4 = £2,494
Q3 (assume 10% of total volume): (120p x 4000 + 30p x 25000) x 10% + 200/4 = £1,280
Q4 (assume 30% of total volume): (106p x 4000 + 27p x 25000) x 30% + 200/4 = £3,347

For a total bill of £10,451....if no one intervenes

Gas futures prices have rallied again today, so the cap levels estimates are up again. The Oct-Dec 22 estimate on the graph is £3,576, and Ofgem will release the actual figure tomorrow.



The figures above the red line are the cost to government of notionall freezing the cap at £2,000. This is why media are bandying around an annual subsidy cost of over £100bn, ie miles more than covid furlough.

Mike4 wrote:

servodude wrote:

Mike4 wrote:

eventide wrote:

scotview wrote:
Just one point, do you know the usage split between electricity & gas for the chart.

Ofgem cap assumes 12,000 kWh gas and £2,900 kWh electricity for a standard user
The standing charge is around another £200

Is it?

My own standing charge is 49.19p per day for leccy. I don't has gas here but in one of my rentals I just had it put back on and the standing charge there (prepay meter - don't ask!) is about 40p per day IIRC although I don't have the exact figure to hand.

Point is though, adding those two figures together I make the standing charge for a gas+leccy user 89.19p per day, or £325.54 per year.

I've just checked my supplier's website on the back of this post (I'll check the bill when I'm next bothered)
And their standing charges for new customers are about the same
- possibly a tad higher (given the fall of the pound recently)


Thing is (and the bit that really sticks in my craw) is that there's nothing I can do about it - and where I am the money goes to China

Prolly not practical, but one possible way to half the standing charge is the cancel the gas contract and go all electric (heat pump etc), or electric and oil.

Or even generate your own leccy with a diesel genny. Or do your own heat and power together with an oil-fired CHP unit.


(Edit to sort out my formatting.)

Not quite in a position to do that at the moment... and I wouldn't qualify for red diesel where I am (which is what made it worthwhile putting in a genset as a backup for solar on the off grid properties I did the telemetry stuff for). The guys I know who went self sufficient 10 years or so back are laughing now! And not just cos they recently managed to stack the Australian parliament with independents; though that is quite good fun