IDP's HYP as of 29 Aug 20

[Arborbridge]

I thought I had made it adundantly clear it was not a serious comment, Ian has made his position on measuring performance clear.

I think it would be interesting to see how a much more heavily traded HYP performs versus more traditionally managed ones, as much as anything because my own HYP performed so poorly. But that is not going to happen.

Attempting to portray agitative criticism, sarcasm or a "dig" at someone as humour neverless allows the former motive to be clear and so a rejoinder was required.

Arb.

[idpickering]

I thought I had made it adundantly clear it was not a serious comment, Ian has made his position on measuring performance clear.

I think it would be interesting to see how a much more heavily traded HYP performs versus more traditionally managed ones, as much as anything because my own HYP performed so poorly. But that is not going to happen.

Attempting to portray agitative criticism, sarcasm or a "dig" at someone as humour neverless allows the former motive to be clear and so a rejoinder was required.

Arb.

Spot on Arb, thank you. You know what they say about leopards?

Ian.

[tjh290633]

Moderator Message:
I have just deleted a post with a snide comment, and replies to that post.

Wizard, if you persist in this sort of comment, then your posts will be deleted.

TJH

[idpickering]

Now that distraction is out of the way, thanks Terry, I mentioned further up this thread that I was going to buy more BAE Systems on 22 Sep. That is still the case. Imho they’re a solid and reliable HYP share, and I’m happy to buy it on the cheap. Mind you, three weeks is a long time, and things might change, but I doubt it. Thereafter, a top up of BP. in October looks likely. I might even buy more Shell RDSB soon too.i don’t think they’ll be as cheap as they are forever.

Ian.

[pyad]

One share not mentioned so far in this thread is M&G (MNG), a fund manager in the FTSE100. I realise Ian that you already hold Schroders and Standard Life in this sector so probably of little interest to you, unless you perhaps wished to spread your holdings here three ways, but others may be interested.

MNG was divested from Prudential in October last year so very little div history. Ignoring a special, they declared a final of 11.92p in respect of 31/12/19 which they state is about 2/3 of the div that would have been paid for a full year, and the recent interim of 6.00p for 31/12/20 where they give the similar view that this is 1/3 of the previous year's payout. Thus the expected 20 div is 18p or very close to it.

The interim accounts to 30 June weren't bad though they did say that they do not expect to increase the div while the threat of Covid-19 remains. But based on my forecast div for 20 and perhaps further static years that makes a big yield of 10.7% on a share price of 168p which if fulfilled more than compensates for lack of growth. Oddly this is rather higher than Standard on a forecast 8.2% at 231p and I can't really see why, and it's also way more than Schroders, both of which you hold. Too good to be true? I leave others to judge.

As an HYP selection, it clearly lacks the lengthier div history that is normally desirable but we aint living in normal times and several modifications to the usual selection criteria will often have to be made for new selections at present, such as taking a view on divs etc.

[idpickering]

One share not mentioned so far in this thread is M&G (MNG), a fund manager in the FTSE100. I realise Ian that you already hold Schroders and Standard Life in this sector so probably of little interest to you, unless you perhaps wished to spread your holdings here three ways, but others may be interested.

MNG was divested from Prudential in October last year so very little div history. Ignoring a special, they declared a final of 11.92p in respect of 31/12/19 which they state is about 2/3 of the div that would have been paid for a full year, and the recent interim of 6.00p for 31/12/20 where they give the similar view that this is 1/3 of the previous year's payout. Thus the expected 20 div is 18p or very close to it.

The interim accounts to 30 June weren't bad though they did say that they do not expect to increase the div while the threat of Covid-19 remains. But based on my forecast div for 20 and perhaps further static years that makes a big yield of 10.7% on a share price of 168p which if fulfilled more than compensates for lack of growth. Oddly this is rather higher than Standard on a forecast 8.2% at 231p and I can't really see why, and it's also way more than Schroders, both of which you hold. Too good to be true? I leave others to judge.

As an HYP selection, it clearly lacks the lengthier div history that is normally desirable but we aint living in normal times and several modifications to the usual selection criteria will often have to be made for new selections at present, such as taking a view on divs etc.

Thank you for your ever-welcome input Stephen. I haven't looked at M&G before, so certainly find it of interest. As you mention, a longer dividend history would've been more preferable. As for a three way split in that sector, I think further diversification in that sector is a plus, or any sector come to think of it. Does anyone else here have a view on M&G?

Ian.

[Dod101]

Fund managers are not very good news in general at the moment, although I hold Schroders which I think is the best of the bunch. SLA is holding its dividend (as is Schroders). I do not know much about M & G but I do not see why they would be any better than either of the other two and since you hold both, I would leave it alone.

The problem with most of them is the pressure on charges they can make since everyone seems to be going for trackers these days.

Dod

[idpickering]

Fund managers are not very good news in general at the moment, although I hold Schroders which I think is the best of the bunch. SLA is holding its dividend (as is Schroders). I do not know much about M & G but I do not see why they would be any better than either of the other two and since you hold both, I would leave it alone.

The problem with most of them is the pressure on charges they can make since everyone seems to be going for trackers these days.

Dod

Thanks Dod. Having just been investigating them (M & G), I've come to the same conclusion as you. I'm underwater in capital values from the other two Standard Life Aberdeen, and Schroders (non voting), and would rather average down on them before I look elsewhere in that sector, if at all. But my thanks to PYAD nonetheless.

Ian.

[Arborbridge]

Fund managers are not very good news in general at the moment, although I hold Schroders which I think is the best of the bunch. SLA is holding its dividend (as is Schroders). I do not know much about M & G but I do not see why they would be any better than either of the other two and since you hold both, I would leave it alone.

The problem with most of them is the pressure on charges they can make since everyone seems to be going for trackers these days.

Dod

since everyone seems to be going for trackers these days.

Well, the operative words there are "everyone" and "seems to be" I suspect all is not lost for normal managers, but whatever we choose to do, there is always a risk that it will turn out worse than expected.

On the whole, unless there's a clear reason to change, as regards Ian's investment, I would leave it to soak for longer unless he feels the need for a third fund manager.

Arb.

[Alaric]

The problem with most of them is the pressure on charges they can make since everyone seems to be going for trackers these days.

M&G isn't yet a pure fund manager as it also contains the UK life insurance business written by the Prudential before the demerger and continuing under the same brand names.

https://www.pru.co.uk/about/?lid=footer_about_about-us

It may have ambitions to follow Aberdeen Standard and come up with a deal to sell off that side of the business, but that hasn't happened yet.

[idpickering]

Thanks for your input guys. To many 'ifs & buts' with M & G currently for my liking. I'll stick with the two I have in the sector already. To bring M & G on board too, would be dipping my toe into diworsification waters I think.

Ian.

[pyad]

...I do not know much about M & G but I do not see why they would be any better than either of the other two...
Dod

Can't you see that your observation is contradictory and rather meaningless. If you don't know much about MNG, how can you possibly conclude that you do not see why it would be better than the other two? I'm not saying it is or isn't other than a significantly higher forecast yield, but at least I provided some data for comparison.

If you are going to comment on shares and claim that one is "better" than another (or not as here), you might at least take the trouble to research such opinions and state why, before giving them. Assuming you wish your views to carry some validity rather than just saying the first baseless thing that springs to mind.

[MDW1954]

Moderator Message:
Fairly predictably, I've just deleted a lot of posts that were mostly making or repeating a personal attack. --MDW1954

[funduffer]

One share not mentioned so far in this thread is M&G (MNG), a fund manager in the FTSE100. I realise Ian that you already hold Schroders and Standard Life in this sector so probably of little interest to you, unless you perhaps wished to spread your holdings here three ways, but others may be interested.

MNG was divested from Prudential in October last year so very little div history. Ignoring a special, they declared a final of 11.92p in respect of 31/12/19 which they state is about 2/3 of the div that would have been paid for a full year, and the recent interim of 6.00p for 31/12/20 where they give the similar view that this is 1/3 of the previous year's payout. Thus the expected 20 div is 18p or very close to it.

The interim accounts to 30 June weren't bad though they did say that they do not expect to increase the div while the threat of Covid-19 remains. But based on my forecast div for 20 and perhaps further static years that makes a big yield of 10.7% on a share price of 168p which if fulfilled more than compensates for lack of growth. Oddly this is rather higher than Standard on a forecast 8.2% at 231p and I can't really see why, and it's also way more than Schroders, both of which you hold. Too good to be true? I leave others to judge.

As an HYP selection, it clearly lacks the lengthier div history that is normally desirable but we aint living in normal times and several modifications to the usual selection criteria will often have to be made for new selections at present, such as taking a view on divs etc.

Thanks for the tip. I have SLA in my HYP, but I have some money to invest, and wouldn’t be averse to buying into M&G as a second share in this sector, especially at such an attractive yield. There are precious few new HYP ideas around at the moment, so I will definitely take a look.

FD

[csearle]

Moderator Message:
All this bickering is quite off-topic. The OP presented the constituents of his HYP following a sale or two and asked for comments on that. Please try to stick to that on this thread. Thanks - Chris

[Dod101]

...I do not know much about M & G but I do not see why they would be any better than either of the other two...
Dod

Can't you see that your observation is contradictory and rather meaningless. If you don't know much about MNG, how can you possibly conclude that you do not see why it would be better than the other two? I'm not saying it is or isn't other than a significantly higher forecast yield, but at least I provided some data for comparison.

If you are going to comment on shares and claim that one is "better" than another (or not as here), you might at least take the trouble to research such opinions and state why, before giving them. Assuming you wish your views to carry some validity rather than just saying the first baseless thing that springs to mind.

I have been out all day so have clearly missed all the fun and games. I wonder what the personal attack was about? Do I need to say that M & G, SLA and Schroders are in the same line of business? Apparently M & G still has life insurance business, but in the main all fund managers are behaving in much the same way at the moment as far as I can tell, and so I doubt that M & G will behave very much better than the others. That is all I was saying and it seems to me to be a perfectly reasonable observation. The very high yield would also put me off because if they had an attraction which I am missing, surely the market would be buying it. Chasing higher yields has been shown again and again to be unwise and more importantly unrewarding.

BTW, I wish you well but I feel as entitled as anyone else to comment on things you and others say. No need to make a big issue out of it.

Dod

[idpickering]

Further to my comment in my opening post;

I had mentioned Moneysupermarket.com as a possible new entrant, but I'm going to hold off from buying that for now at least. I'm happier with my HYP now, so thanks to all who've offered their guidance, and opinions. My monthly top up will still happen on 22nd Aug, and that'll be BAE Systems. For next month I'm planning to buy more BP.

In the interests of openness and honesty, I should add that I've had a change of mind re buying more BAE Systems on 22 Sep 20. Instead I'm buying more British American Tobacco. The reason for the change is so that I can buy more BATS prior to their ex dividend date of 01 Oct 20, for a 52.6p dividend. That may well be my last top up of these for a while. The top up of BA. will happen next month. As for BP., the way things are in the markets, there doesn't seem to be any rush to buy BP. shares, but that will happen soon too.

Ian.

[pyad]

In the interests of openness and honesty, I should add that I've had a change of mind re buying more BAE Systems on 22 Sep 20. Instead I'm buying more British American Tobacco. The reason for the change is so that I can buy more BATS prior to their ex dividend date of 01 Oct 20, for a 52.6p dividend. That may well be my last top up of these for a while. The top up of BA. will happen next month. As for BP., the way things are in the markets, there doesn't seem to be any rush to buy BP. shares, but that will happen soon too.

Ian.

Ian, why not just wait until when you are ready to trade and decide then, according to the prevailing situation? As you know a lot can happen over the intervening period and waiting would avoid having to keep monitoring your earlier decision.

[idpickering]

In the interests of openness and honesty, I should add that I've had a change of mind re buying more BAE Systems on 22 Sep 20. Instead I'm buying more British American Tobacco. The reason for the change is so that I can buy more BATS prior to their ex dividend date of 01 Oct 20, for a 52.6p dividend. That may well be my last top up of these for a while. The top up of BA. will happen next month. As for BP., the way things are in the markets, there doesn't seem to be any rush to buy BP. shares, but that will happen soon too.

Ian.

Ian, why not just wait until when you are ready to trade and decide then, according to the prevailing situation? As you know a lot can happen over the intervening period and waiting would avoid having to keep monitoring your earlier decision.

Thanks for your input Stephen. I guess common sense dictates that you’re right of course. I suppose my post earlier on was me just airing my thoughts openly. I do like to ‘think aloud’ so to speak, as my doing so could result in views being shared, much as you have done.

Ok, my plan right now is as I describe, but might change? ....maybe....perhaps....but then again...

Ian.

[idpickering]

Right, in keeping with my fickleness, I’ve made my mind up, I think . Much as I doubled up my holdings of Shell RDSB in 2016, I’m of a mind right now to buy more of their shares next Tuesday. That is the next scheduled cheapo monthly saving date for my ISA provider, Halifax. I might follow that up with a top up of my BP. shares next month. My thinking is that as the oilies are cheap right now, this is the time to grow a pair, and buy the shares, with a ltbh mind.

Ian.