Remove ads

Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

Practical discussions about equity High-Yield Portfolios (HYP) for income
Forum rules
Tight HYP discussions only please - OT please discuss in strategies
idpickering
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1883
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 5:04 pm
Has thanked: 196 times
Been thanked: 365 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#116853

Postby idpickering » February 9th, 2018, 12:32 pm

kempiejon wrote:
idpickering wrote:
I couldn't agree more Dod. There was a time in the past when my exposure to tobacco shares,( Imperial & Brit American), was at 10% in capital value of my HYP. Nowadays, that figure is 7.7%, which I'm more happy with.

Ian.


Ian, I can't say I enjoy it when the market reduces my holdings by 20% or more. I had been worried that my BT holding was overweight and I see it's now a much more manageable proportion of my over all portfolio by having falling by over 35%.


Hi kempiejon, I should've been more explanatory regarding my quote above. That reduction from 10%, to 7.7% was due to me investing elsewhere in order to spread my risk more. I wasn't inferring that my exposure had been reduced by market/stock movements. But either way, I'm happier at the lower level.

Ian.

monabri
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1253
Joined: January 7th, 2017, 9:56 am
Has thanked: 84 times
Been thanked: 207 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117877

Postby monabri » February 13th, 2018, 2:45 pm

Now at £26.05. approx 6.6% yield.

idpickering
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1883
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 5:04 pm
Has thanked: 196 times
Been thanked: 365 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117881

Postby idpickering » February 13th, 2018, 3:04 pm

monabri wrote:Now at £26.05. approx 6.6% yield.


I see that monabri, thanks. They're down 2.3% currently, heaven knows why? My scheduled purchase on this Thursday is still going through, along with top ups of Lloyds and Admiral Group.

Ian.

monabri
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1253
Joined: January 7th, 2017, 9:56 am
Has thanked: 84 times
Been thanked: 207 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117883

Postby monabri » February 13th, 2018, 3:12 pm

at £43.98, BATS is almost at a 4% yield too :?:

Factor in a 10% dividend increase on IMPs and the yield would be 7.2%...
Last edited by monabri on February 13th, 2018, 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

idpickering
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1883
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 5:04 pm
Has thanked: 196 times
Been thanked: 365 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117884

Postby idpickering » February 13th, 2018, 3:14 pm

monabri wrote:at £43.98, BATS is almost at a 4% yield too :?:


Crazy isn't it?

Ian.

monabri
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1253
Joined: January 7th, 2017, 9:56 am
Has thanked: 84 times
Been thanked: 207 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117885

Postby monabri » February 13th, 2018, 3:16 pm

Well, they say the market knows best... what don't we know?

idpickering
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1883
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 5:04 pm
Has thanked: 196 times
Been thanked: 365 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117886

Postby idpickering » February 13th, 2018, 3:22 pm

monabri wrote:at £43.98, BATS is almost at a 4% yield too :?:

Factor in a 10% dividend increase on IMPs and the yield would be 7.2%...


In the mean time I'm happy to take that yield. (IMB). I have no intention of selling.

Ian.

PinkDalek
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1824
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:12 pm
Has thanked: 287 times
Been thanked: 289 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117887

Postby PinkDalek » February 13th, 2018, 3:29 pm

idpickering wrote:
monabri wrote:Now at £26.05. approx 6.6% yield.


I see that monabri, thanks. They're down 2.3% currently, heaven knows why? ...


I haven't read this or other Topics in full but the brief reasons must include the ongoing potential problems:

1. The lack of the Japan Tobacco takeover/merger.
2. The threatened USA litigation/FDA legislation.
3. Going out of fashion.
4. Market jitters etc.

I've held Imperial since they demerged from Hanson. TJH might tell us when that was but it was about 1996. I downsized once in 2008 or thereabouts, as I need cash for something else. I'd always intended to continue downsizing, as it was one of my two oversized holdings but the larger one took preference in using up my CGT annual exempt amount. I think I've lost about 35% over the last 12 months and that amounts to a considerable sum.

The dividend yield is, of course, impressive and I can't say I don't enjoy the quarterly dividends and I'm aware this is High Yield Portfolios (HYP) - Practical.

Would I top up?

Most definitely not but I'll probably continue to hold for the time-being.

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1017
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 123 times
Been thanked: 96 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117889

Postby Bouleversee » February 13th, 2018, 3:43 pm

PD -

Could you please remind us (me, anyway) what the litigation/legislation is all about. I was just about to bed and isa some IMB shares as I don't have a large holding myself. My daughter is in the same boat as you. TJH has been proved right as regards top slicing. I have always tended to stick with my winners but all their prizes seem to be disappearing fast.

monabri
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1253
Joined: January 7th, 2017, 9:56 am
Has thanked: 84 times
Been thanked: 207 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117915

Postby monabri » February 13th, 2018, 4:44 pm

Litigation - This is covered in the Annual report 2017

http://www.imperialbrandsplc.com/conten ... 171207.pdf


As part of their risk register, They have a section on "Tobacco litigation ". They describe the risk on page 27 of their report (note,page 27 of the report is not the same as page 27 when you open up the pdf file link above).

From page 27

"To date, no tobacco litigation claim brought against the Group has
been successful and/or resulted in the recovery of damages. "


But the risk is that case are brought against them if they don't comply with the countries rules.

They discuss individual cases (by country) on page 50 of their report.

So, there is a risk that they might slip up and not follow the rules....hence there is a risk of litigation.

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1017
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 123 times
Been thanked: 96 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117924

Postby Bouleversee » February 13th, 2018, 5:05 pm

Many thanks for that link, Mon. Unfortunately, it is quite impossible to read the text on my laptop and if I use a magnifying glass it is just blurred. Perhaps I'll demand a hard copy in future. Anyway, from your quote it didn't sound as though the risk from litigation was too severe. What about the FDA legislation?

monabri
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1253
Joined: January 7th, 2017, 9:56 am
Has thanked: 84 times
Been thanked: 207 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117932

Postby monabri » February 13th, 2018, 5:37 pm

28 July 17

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exch ... 10400.html

"The US Food & Drug Administration on Friday announced a new "comprehensive plan" for tobacco and nicotine regulation that will "serve as a multi-year roadmap to better protect kids and significantly reduce tobacco-related disease and death"

As I understand it, one element will be to reduce the nicotine levels in an effort to reduce addiction and to make it easier to kick the habit.

tjh290633
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1384
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 11:20 am
Has thanked: 58 times
Been thanked: 338 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117935

Postby tjh290633 » February 13th, 2018, 5:48 pm

PinkDalek wrote:I've held Imperial since they demerged from Hanson. TJH might tell us when that was but it was about 1996. I downsized once in 2008 or thereabouts, as I need cash for something else. I'd always intended to continue downsizing, as it was one of my two oversized holdings but the larger one took preference in using up my CGT annual exempt amount. I think I've lost about 35% over the last 12 months and that amounts to a considerable sum.

The dividend yield is, of course, impressive and I can't say I don't enjoy the quarterly dividends and I'm aware this is High Yield Portfolios (HYP) - Practical.

Would I top up?

Most definitely not but I'll probably continue to hold for the time-being.


The demerger was on 01-Oct-1996, and the demerged price was 375p. I added to them in March 1997 at 417p, in November 1997 at 369p and in May 1998 at 440p.

Then in April 2002 I sold the rights and trimmed back my holding in June at 1083p.Trimmed again in March 2003 at 986p and in March 2007 at 2323p. A further trim in January 2008 at 2669p was followed by selling the rights in June 2008. I topped up in July 2013 at 2279p and again in August 2013 at 2233p.

In February 2016 I trimmed again at 3579p, and topped up in October 2017 at 3130p.

The dividend has risen from an original 21.4p to the current 170.72p, and the XIRR works out at 21.0%. IMB is currently top of my rankings for topping up, perhaps at the end of the month, but that might be pre-empted if Segro rises relative to the median, currently BAE Systems.

No reason to contemplate a disposal. My current holding is about 60% of the shares after the top-up in March 1997 and 50% of the maximum held in 1998.

TJH

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1017
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 123 times
Been thanked: 96 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117945

Postby Bouleversee » February 13th, 2018, 6:35 pm

monabri wrote:28 July 17

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exch ... 10400.html

"The US Food & Drug Administration on Friday announced a new "comprehensive plan" for tobacco and nicotine regulation that will "serve as a multi-year roadmap to better protect kids and significantly reduce tobacco-related disease and death"

As I understand it, one element will be to reduce the nicotine levels in an effort to reduce addiction and to make it easier to kick the habit.


Ah yes, that does ring a bell now. Thank you. So will that make addicts give up the habit and go somewhere even more dangerous for their kicks/stress busters or will they smoke 3 times as many to get the same effect? I did resist the temptation for many years (to buy the shares, not the products, that is, for ethical reasons) but when I saw how well my daughter's holding had done I weakened and bought a few, persuading myself that nobody would smoke any more or less whether I bought or not. Difficult to know what to do now. I am losing on the ones in my ISA and don't know whether bed and ISAing the others will reduce or compound the loss. I note that TJH doesn't seem worried, so perhaps I shouldn't be. The daily decline is, however, a bit strange.

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1017
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 123 times
Been thanked: 96 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117973

Postby Bouleversee » February 13th, 2018, 8:41 pm

Just seen this on the rather late ADVFN Evening Markets Bulletin (FWIW)

"Imperial Brands was under the cosh on Tuesday as Piper Jaffray cut the stock to 'neutral' from 'overweight' and reduced the price target to 2,800p from 3,500p, highlighting a cheap valuation but a modest earnings per share growth outlook.
The US investment bank said it expects further reinvestment spending to weigh on EPS growth as the company expands in vapour and considers a heated tobacco launch.
"The stock trades at just 10x our 2019E calendar EPS, but this looks less attractive relative to modest EPS growth (we estimate 1% 3-year growth), especially without a proven heated tobacco platform (which we consider a much bigger opportunity than vapour, Imperial's focus to date)."
Piper Jaffray cut its FY18 EPS estimate to 260.5p from 265.7p and its FY19 forecast to 266p from 294p.
It said that while Imperial hasn’t actually committed to a heated tobacco launch, there is a risk to FY19 EPS growth from likely launch investments, as rival Philip Morris's momentum with electronic tobacco device IQOS makes it too difficult to rely on vapour products alone."

However, since they closed today at 2600.50p that would still be an improvement.

Dod101
Lemon Slice
Posts: 660
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 109 times
Been thanked: 239 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117981

Postby Dod101 » February 13th, 2018, 9:29 pm

Keep calm and carry on. Apart from anything else if you ditch tobacco, support services and utilities there is not much choice left is there?

Dod

Arborbridge
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1522
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:33 am
Has thanked: 120 times
Been thanked: 280 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117992

Postby Arborbridge » February 13th, 2018, 10:41 pm

Dod101 wrote:Keep calm and carry on. Apart from anything else if you ditch tobacco, support services and utilities there is not much choice left is there?

Dod


And didn't we ditch oils and retailers and most banks?

Not that a bear won't eat for breakfast. :twisted:

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1017
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 123 times
Been thanked: 96 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117993

Postby Bouleversee » February 13th, 2018, 10:45 pm

Dod101 wrote:Keep calm and carry on. Apart from anything else if you ditch tobacco, support services and utilities there is not much choice left is there?

Dod

You left out Retail, Dod. Am losing several thousand there as well. Looks as though Mothercare which I have held for many years might be going bust too. The almost £5k I had invested there is now worth £397.80. I also have M&S, Next, N. Brown, all the supermarkets and Card Factory, Burberry, Greggs & WH Smith. The last 3 have done well but may have slipped a bit recently and in general people don't seem to be spending or drinking (my Marston's also down a lot). I note that the Australian firm which took over Homebase has written off their investment and more. Miners have been disastrous for me, also, and builders are also down and not as attractive as they were. There really is very little left that I do feel confident in investing in. As you suggest, IMB may be as good as anything, though insurance might be safer. I haven't sold any of my own shares so will just hope for a recovery in due course, after transferring to ISAs at the lower prices (so far, they've gone even lower after transfer however) and a continuation of the income in the meantime; I shall endeavour to spend or gift that to charity and family, what's left after higher rate tax this year, that is. Having started to read the Polite Discussions thread on what might happen if Corbyn gets in and what investment strategy to adopt, I see absolutely no point in saving any more.

monabri
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1253
Joined: January 7th, 2017, 9:56 am
Has thanked: 84 times
Been thanked: 207 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117994

Postby monabri » February 13th, 2018, 10:46 pm

It's taken them a while to change their view from £35 per share to £28!

IMB was at £35 on June 29 2017. Then, ~8 months later with the share price at £26 they issue a price target of £28.

Not really much use if you ask me and it would make me wonder about any of their other price targets (if I thought

for one minute they were of use......which I don't).

Ah well, XD next week!

westmoreland
Posts: 14
Joined: February 2nd, 2018, 11:06 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 9 times

Re: Anyone topping up Imperial Brands?

#117997

Postby westmoreland » February 13th, 2018, 11:16 pm

at the moment the market is punishing anything that has flat forecast earnings, no matter what the underlying quality of the business is. look at the likes of card factory / next for how swiftly the 'experts' change their tune.

remember that for the past few years IMB have been paying down billions of normalised debt, and acquired some very attractively priced brands in the U.S.

there is no doubt PMI and BAT are better placed for the long term, but the question is what valuation premium do they justify?

as i said before, as long as IMB continues to pay down debt and increase the dividend, i will happily hold. the valuation is so depressed i may even top up a modest amount.


Return to “High Yield Portfolios (HYP) - Practical”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: idpickering and 2 guests