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Top up pickering

Practical discussions about equity High-Yield Portfolios (HYP) for income
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Tight HYP discussions only please - OT please discuss in strategies
Arborbridge
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Re: Top up pickering

#172204

Postby Arborbridge » October 8th, 2018, 8:01 am

Thanks for all the replies so far. I hope some of them will have been of general use to people other than me, because there are valid thoughts we could all benefit from.

I'm going to play it with "a straight bat" and stick to my limits I've set up. I will be making a final decision about which shares to topup soon, and when I've placed the order, I will post the result.

Cheers, all,

Arb.

I chuckled at the suggestion that I needn't worry about PSN's allocation as the dividend will fall anyway :)

Arborbridge
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Re: Top up pickering

#172871

Postby Arborbridge » October 10th, 2018, 7:39 pm

I decided to make a topup of BT only today*. It was tempting to include VOD, SLA or PSN, but I'm leaving those for another time to see what becomes of the tanking SPs. Despite adding more capital, my total HYP lost value today - this is fairly depressing. It's not the first time either, recently, that I've put more capital in only to see a stasis or decline in the total value - all symptomatic of this nervously eroding market.

Here's my updated table, which shows BT sliding down to 12th place. Note also that NG has dropped off the radar and a new entrant - IGG - has come in. This is quite a change as IGG has mostly been well down the table since for a long time, but the price has come off suddenly and disastrously, by one third.



For those unacquainted with my HYP, I should add that this table is only the top dozen if 36 shares. I generally hunt for topups from this top group, and usually, but not always, take the highest permissable share. The idea of the top dozen is to allow myself wiggle room for a bit of pickering.

Arb.

*Although I did topup a couple of ITs as well.

monabri
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Re: Top up pickering

#172904

Postby monabri » October 10th, 2018, 10:17 pm

And with the DOW falling 830 points today, it looks like being another red day tomorrow.

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Re: Top up pickering

#172911

Postby moorfield » October 10th, 2018, 10:48 pm

Well my overall portfolio yield has risen from 5.3% to, er, 5.3% today. "I see no signal, Foley."

idpickering
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Re: Top up pickering

#172924

Postby idpickering » October 11th, 2018, 7:08 am

monabri wrote:And with the DOW falling 830 points today, it looks like being another red day tomorrow.


Time for some Dorisian HYPing I guess. "What mini correction?" she'd say. ;) I told my Wife we're due a pull back, but as has happened before, stocks will recover. As a HYPer, I wish I had more spare dosh to take advantage of the current climate. Either way, I'm holding firm. Are you doing some more Pickering Arb?

Ian.

Arborbridge
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Re: Top up pickering

#172925

Postby Arborbridge » October 11th, 2018, 7:14 am

Entering up my "numbers" in spread-sheets today after the topup, brought home the fall in my portfolio value - so much so, that I thought there must be an error somewhere. However, a "rough and dirty" check down my HYPTUSS shows nothing glaring, and I further notice that since the end of the month the FTSE fall has been 4.8%, whereas my portfolio unit price dropped 3.8%. The yield is 5.5% with a forecast income of 7.1 p/unit: this hasn't altered.

So I reckon it's real alright and not an arithmetic blunder of mine.

Tea leaves: I know this might be OT, or even OTT, but point and figure charts are showing the FTSE may fall to 69xx or lower. Now might be good time for drip-feeding for those building, although this would appear anti- the usual HYP philosphy.

Scan down the charts on HYPTUSS and you will see a great number of solid down trends. I doubt this will reverse in a hurry given the current political and world trade uncertainties - in essence, waiting will probably not lose much in terms of income/yield so there's no panic to buy at these apparently good yields. BTW, this possibility of further market falls was what drove me to build up my HYP slowly in 2007-2010, and I believe it was the correct thing to do at that time.


Arb.

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Re: Top up pickering

#172926

Postby Arborbridge » October 11th, 2018, 7:20 am

idpickering wrote:
monabri wrote:And with the DOW falling 830 points today, it looks like being another red day tomorrow.


Time for some Dorisian HYPing I guess. "What mini correction?" she'd say. ;) I told my Wife we're due a pull back, but as has happened before, stocks will recover. As a HYPer, I wish I had more spare dosh to take advantage of the current climate. Either way, I'm holding firm. Are you doing some more Pickering Arb?

Ian.


See my latest post.
I'm "holding firm" in the sense that I'm not selling, but I'm and advising caution rather than going jumping in with all you've got. Some accumulation of cash on the side at this time may be no bad thing, for once a market fall starts in earnest, there will be plenty of time to take advantage - even if the market rises, there will be no great losing out in terms of income opportunity missed - at least that's my view. I'm sure I will be still investing slowly over the coming months, as I usually do, but if I can summon up the patience I'll spread it out as much as possible. Patience was never my strong point!

Dorisian HYPing, I suggest, applies to a HYP already in existence, rather than new funds being invested. And yes, Dorisian in the sense that I took the decision years ago that when we hit another large market fall, I would stay invested. That's pretty much what I've always done since 1986, and won't be doing anything different now.

Arb.

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Re: Top up pickering

#172927

Postby idpickering » October 11th, 2018, 7:33 am

Arborbridge wrote:Entering up my "numbers" in spread-sheets today after the topup, brought home the fall in my portfolio value - so much so, that I thought there must be an error somewhere. However, a "rough and dirty" check down my HYPTUSS shows nothing glaring, and I further notice that since the end of the month the FTSE fall has been 4.8%, whereas my portfolio unit price dropped 3.8%. The yield is 5.5% with a forecast income of 7.1 p/unit: this hasn't altered.

Arb.


I just checked my figures and see that the capital value of my HYP has fallen nearly 3% over the last week. On the grand scheme of things, barely a wiggle, so I'm not getting stressed about it. It is about the income after all, and the GSK pay out I'll receive today will ease my sorrow. ;)

Ian.

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Re: Top up pickering

#172931

Postby Dod101 » October 11th, 2018, 8:00 am

This discussion has become very unHYPlike. Yes today I have Glaxo and tomorrow, Chesnara. October has continued like September although my divs will thin out a bit after next week.

I will no doubt get a bit of a shock on Saturday when I do my weekly valuation but that is just too bad and of course it is all very well topping up when the market is lower just as long as we recognise that we do not know how low it will get - or for how long.

Dod

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Re: Top up pickering

#172933

Postby idpickering » October 11th, 2018, 8:09 am

Dod101 wrote:This discussion has become very unHYPlike. Yes today I have Glaxo and tomorrow, Chesnara. October has continued like September although my divs will thin out a bit after next week.

I will no doubt get a bit of a shock on Saturday when I do my weekly valuation but that is just too bad and of course it is all very well topping up when the market is lower just as long as we recognise that we do not know how low it will get - or for how long.

Dod


Your comments are very much on point Dod, and a great reminder of why we profess to be HYPers at all. It is about the income, and the share price movements are very much secondary at best.

Ian,

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Re: Top up pickering

#172940

Postby Arborbridge » October 11th, 2018, 9:13 am

Whilst I agree with most of Dod and Ian's comments, I doubt whether being circumspect about topups or further investment is "unHYPlike" - and I wasn't suggested anyone should get "stressed" about the situation. In my case, being solidly invested through several stock market falls since 1986 shows I do not get "stressed" about them and I do not sell out: they are bread and butter.

However, whoever believes that the time is always now, might think around that proposition in a situation when the market is falling. It is not yet clear whether this is a temporary correction (a "blip" as Ian called this latest decline - which is 10% from the high) or the beginning of a further fall, and all I've advocated is some caution until the trend is clearer - either for per share, or for the market. The charts suggested 6900 on the FTSE back in August - we are at just over 7000 today.
HYP shares may fall further, - which will give you more income if you buy then - but if it turns out price start trending up again, you really won't have lost a significant amount of income (falls are usually steeper than the resulting come-backs). It's about hedging one's bets and keeping some powder dry, according to your own comfort factor.

It's all about income: and that's precisely the point - buying as much bang for the buck as possible.

Arb.

PS, and this is unHYPlike: I've put proportionally more in ITs just lately than into HYP.

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Re: Top up pickering

#172945

Postby tjh290633 » October 11th, 2018, 9:49 am

Arborbridge wrote:However, whoever believes that the time is always now, might think around that proposition in a situation when the market is falling. It is not yet clear whether this is a temporary correction (a "blip" as Ian called this latest decline - which is 10% from the high) or the beginning of a further fall, and all I've advocated is some caution until the trend is clearer - either for per share, or for the market. The charts suggested 6900 on the FTSE back in August - we are at just over 7000 today.

I'm not sure about "always", but I am certainly of the belief that the time to invest is now.

We do not know when a correction to the fall will occur, how far the fall will be, whether there will be short-lived rallies, or whether the end of the world is nigh.

If you can buy income at a decent rate, then buy it. Sometime the market will recover. We have seen the market halve in a very short time in the past, and recover almost as quickly. Have faith.

TJH

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Re: Top up pickering

#172947

Postby Dod101 » October 11th, 2018, 9:54 am

If the market decline is 'only' to 6900 that is not too bad. I suspect that what with Brexit and continued political instability we might see it lower than that even if only briefly, but who knows? I certainly do not and am in the relatively happy position of not putting much more into the market these days. Surplus dividends tend to go to grandchildren's funds. Not much point in me hanging on to it.

Just had another birthday yesterday as if I need reminding about Anno Domini.

Dod

Arborbridge
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Re: Top up pickering

#172950

Postby Arborbridge » October 11th, 2018, 10:01 am

tjh290633 wrote: Have faith.

TJH


I do: note that I did make some topups yesterday. I have faith that the market will fall, and that the market will recover. If it doesn't, then will won't be worrying jut about our pensions, but about huge civil unrest and much worse problems. So I remain sanguine about market falls as I always have.
I think that any climb back after a serious fall may be fairly slow, but I hope I'm wrong! If I'm right, then there's no rush to invest immediately and keeping some powder dry will appeal to some people - even HYPers.


Arb.

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Re: Top up pickering

#172953

Postby Arborbridge » October 11th, 2018, 10:11 am

Dod101 wrote:If the market decline is 'only' to 6900 that is not too bad. I suspect that what with Brexit and continued political instability we might see it lower than that even if only briefly, but who knows? I certainly do not and am in the relatively happy position of not putting much more into the market these days. Surplus dividends tend to go to grandchildren's funds. Not much point in me hanging on to it.

Just had another birthday yesterday as if I need reminding about Anno Domini.

Dod


Well, Happy Birthday Dod.

The interesting point about the 6900, is that the indication was given back in August when the market was at 7500 - not to say the charts are usually correct!!! My conclusion really is that there need be no obligation to invest all one's capital "quickly" as with the climate for world trade and the B-word suggests that stock markets will not be racing away anytime soon.

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Re: Top up pickering

#172986

Postby idpickering » October 11th, 2018, 12:56 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Just had another birthday yesterday as if I need reminding about Anno Domini.

Dod


A belated happy birthday Dod! I'm chuffed that you are still gracing us with your presence hereabouts, with your wisdom and offerings to this board.

Ian.

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Re: Top up pickering

#172990

Postby Dod101 » October 11th, 2018, 1:15 pm

Ian, thanks but no need!

Dod

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Re: Top up pickering

#172998

Postby EssDeeAitch » October 11th, 2018, 1:32 pm

Added to my developing HYP with Imperial Brands (IMB) earlier at 2667 giving me stocks in seven sectors. I must say that in declining markets, there is some comfort to be had from the fact of dividend income.

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Re: Top up pickering

#173007

Postby monabri » October 11th, 2018, 1:58 pm

EssDeeAitch wrote:Added to my developing HYP with Imperial Brands (IMB) earlier at 2667 giving me stocks in seven sectors. I must say that in declining markets, there is some comfort to be had from the fact of dividend income.


A nice 6.6% yield and likely to increase (fingers crossed).

Generally, this seems like a reasonable time to be starting/adding to a HYP. There are so many high yields on offer

(and not just in 'HYP Practical' shares *).

I added a top up in Aviva [now 2.8% of portfolio] and Legal & General [now 3.8% of p/f].




(* Henderson Far East (HFEL) & European Assets Trust (EAT)).

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Re: Top up pickering

#173016

Postby Arborbridge » October 11th, 2018, 2:15 pm

monabri wrote:
EssDeeAitch wrote:Added to my developing HYP with Imperial Brands (IMB) earlier at 2667 giving me stocks in seven sectors. I must say that in declining markets, there is some comfort to be had from the fact of dividend income.


A nice 6.6% yield and likely to increase (fingers crossed).

Generally, this seems like a reasonable time to be starting/adding to a HYP. There are so many high yields on offer

(and not just in 'HYP Practical' shares *).

I added a top up in Aviva [now 2.8% of portfolio] and Legal & General [now 3.8% of p/f].




(* Henderson Far East (HFEL) & European Assets Trust (EAT)).


I agree that it seems a good time. My advice is to spread those purchases over sometime - probably months - rather than going in at one time.

Arb.


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