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National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

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idpickering
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National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

#665360

Postby idpickering » May 23rd, 2024, 7:12 am

John Pettigrew, Chief Executive, said:

"Today is a defining moment for National Grid as we announce a significant increase in investment that cements our position as a leader in the energy transition on both sides of the Atlantic.

Governments and regulators are moving with increased urgency to attract the levels of investment required to meet their net zero ambitions, giving us improved visibility and confidence over our medium term investment plan. That is why we're announcing today a new five-year financial framework. We will be investing £60 billion in the five years to the end of March 2029 - that's nearly double the level of investment of the past five years. We expect this significant step-up in capital investment will deliver annual group asset growth of around 10%, and 6-8% underlying EPS CAGR from a 2024/25 baseline, supported by a comprehensive financing plan that includes a £7 billion equity raise.

This is an unprecedented time for our industry that is creating significant opportunities for National Grid today, over the next five years and for decades to come. Our new five-year investment plan will deliver long-term value and returns for our shareholders, support over 60,000 more jobs, and accelerate the decarbonisation of the energy system for the digital, electrified economies of the future.

Our readiness to take this step is underscored by another year of strong financial and operational performance, with underlying operating profit and underlying EPS both up 6% at constant currency, with record investment of £8.2 billion across the Group. In the UK, our 17 major onshore and offshore transmission projects are moving ahead at pace, and in the US our $4 billion 'Upstate Upgrade' is underway representing the largest investment in New York's electricity transmission network for over a century. Our sixth interconnector, the Viking Link to Denmark, came online in December and is the world's longest onshore and subsea HVDC cable, demonstrating the world-class capabilities within National Grid.

Alongside our new five-year financial framework, we are also today further evolving our strategy to focus on networks and will therefore be streamlining our business as we announce our intention to sell Grain LNG, our UK LNG asset, and National Grid Renewables, our US onshore renewables business."

And later;

Dividends

The Directors are proposing a final dividend for the year ended 31 March 2024 of 39.12p per share that would absorb approximately £1,455 million of shareholders' equity (assuming all amounts are settled in cash). It will be paid on 19 July 2024 to shareholders who are on the register of members at 7 June 2024 (subject to shareholders' approval at the AGM). A scrip dividend will be offered as an alternative.


https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcem ... ts/8215965

Also posted on Company News here; viewtopic.php?p=665359#p665359

I hold these in my HYP, and know others here do too, so this may be of interest here.

Ian.

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Re: National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

#665406

Postby NeilW » May 23rd, 2024, 9:19 am

Let's not forget the other bit

To fund a significant step up in capital investment to around £60 billion in energy network infrastructure, the Board of National Grid plc ("National Grid" or the "Company") today announces a capital raise of approximately £7.0 billion by way of a fully underwritten Rights Issue of 1,085,448,980 New Shares at 645 pence per New Share on the basis of 7 New Shares for every 24 Existing Shares (the "Rights Issue").


and

We will continue our progressive dividend policy, maintaining the total level of dividend following the Rights Issue. Our aim is to grow Dividend Per Share ("DPS") in line with UK CPIH inflation in keeping with the current dividend policy. We will aim to increase the FY25 DPS by UK CPIH following the rebase of the FY24 DPS of 58.52 pence, after taking account of the new shares issued following the Rights Issue[1]


Estimated rebase of 15%, from approximately 53 pence being the FY24 DPS adjusted to take account of the bonus element of the Rights Issue as calculated using the closing middle-market price on 22 May 2024 (being the last business day before the announcement of the terms of the Rights Issue) of 1,127.5 pence per Share, adjusted for the recommended final dividend for FY24 of 39.12 pence per Share.

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Re: National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

#665696

Postby naeclue » May 24th, 2024, 7:23 pm

I found it difficult to calculate the negative impact of the rights issue on the dividend per share going forward. I managed to find a section on the increase in number of shares eventually, and I'm hoping I can just divided old number of shares by new number of shares and thus calculate the impact:

From https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcem ... ts/8215965

"Weighted average number of shares (WAV) is expected to be approximately 4,688 million in 2024/25. Prior to the impact of the Rights Issue, we expected WAV to be 3,750 million shares in 2024/25. We are expecting an increase of approximately 938 million representing the full effect of the bonus element alongside a pro-rating of the fully subscribed shares. In accordance with IFRS, the number of fully paid shares are calculated as the number of shares, at the theoretical ex-rights price, that would generate the proceeds of the Rights Issue. The bonus shares are then the remaining new shares that are expected to be issued. We plan to update this Forward Guidance at Half Year once the Rights Issue has completed."

So, 3750 divided by 4688 equals 0.8. So I can (essentially) expect a cut of 20% in dividend per share?

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Re: National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

#665723

Postby Gerry557 » May 25th, 2024, 6:24 am

45.3p is what NG. Used in their presentation of the results for FY25

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Re: National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

#665750

Postby monabri » May 25th, 2024, 9:46 am

Share price down 20% in 2 days
Dividend rebased down by ~20%
Must take up the share offer assuming funds availability or have one's shareholding diluted.
Possibly Jam tomorrow?

What was in it for the shareholders?

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Re: National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

#665757

Postby idpickering » May 25th, 2024, 10:06 am

monabri wrote:Share price down 20% in 2 days
Dividend rebased down by ~20%
Must take up the share offer assuming funds availability or have one's shareholding diluted.
Possibly Jam tomorrow?

What was in it for the shareholders?


Agreed. What indeed? I’d held National Grid for 19 years until this Thursday when I dumped them, buying two high yielding shares with the funds rescued. A sad end indeed as I’ve very much enjoyed having them in my HYP. A true buy and forget share, or so I thought.

Ian.

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Re: National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

#665773

Postby monabri » May 25th, 2024, 11:24 am

Gerry557 wrote:45.3p is what NG. Used in their presentation of the results for FY25


Based on the before and after share count, the rebased dividend of 45.3p might then be increased by CPIH for FY25.

"We will aim to increase the FY25 DPS by UK CPIH following the rebase of the FY24 DPS of 58.52 pence"


In the last 10 years, they have grown the dividend by 3.37% compounded annually.

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... py?epic=NG.

Perhaps guesstimate the dividend for next year as 45.3p +3.37% .


(3722m shares before to 4807m after : 0.7741)

(58.52p FY24 x 0.7741 = 45.30p).

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Re: National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

#665782

Postby Gerry557 » May 25th, 2024, 11:57 am

monabri wrote:Share price down 20% in 2 days
Dividend rebased down by ~20%
Must take up the share offer assuming funds availability or have one's shareholding diluted.
Possibly Jam tomorrow?

What was in it for the shareholders?


The chance to buy at 645p obviously and to feel good about investing in the country to keep the lights on. Just think of the profit you will make on all those cheap shares. :roll:

Dont look over there .... look at me.

Yes I know over there you have lost 21% in a couple of days but if you spend some more capital you will only be 15% worse off :D


Probably an ok time to buy if you are on the fence as a new shareholder but will they do this again. :?:

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Re: National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

#665783

Postby Gerry557 » May 25th, 2024, 12:02 pm

monabri wrote:
Gerry557 wrote:45.3p is what NG. Used in their presentation of the results for FY25


Based on the before and after share count, the rebased dividend of 45.3p might then be increased by CPIH for FY25.

"We will aim to increase the FY25 DPS by UK CPIH following the rebase of the FY24 DPS of 58.52 pence"


In the last 10 years, they have grown the dividend by 3.37% compounded annually.

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... py?epic=NG.

Perhaps guesstimate the dividend for next year as 45.3p +3.37% .


(3722m shares before to 4807m after : 0.7741)

(58.52p FY24 x 0.7741 = 45.30p).


You are correct but I have the 45.3p divi figure in my spreadsheet which gives me a 5% yield. 3.6 Roentgen as they say in Chernobyl :lol: It will get updated when the new figures are announced.

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Re: National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

#665788

Postby IanTHughes » May 25th, 2024, 12:21 pm

monabri wrote:Share price down 20% in 2 days
Dividend rebased down by ~20%
Must take up the share offer assuming funds availability or have one's shareholding diluted.
Possibly Jam tomorrow?

What was in it for the shareholders?

When reporting on the loss of value, one really should take into account the value of the Rights, which have been received free of cost.

Enjoy!


Ian

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Re: National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

#665790

Postby monabri » May 25th, 2024, 12:32 pm

Gerry557 wrote:
monabri wrote:Share price down 20% in 2 days
Dividend rebased down by ~20%
Must take up the share offer assuming funds availability or have one's shareholding diluted.
Possibly Jam tomorrow?

What was in it for the shareholders?


The chance to buy at 645p obviously and to feel good about investing in the country to keep the lights on. Just think of the profit you will make on all those cheap shares. :roll:

Dont look over there .... look at me.

Yes I know over there you have lost 21% in a couple of days but if you spend some more capital you will only be 15% worse off :D


Probably an ok time to buy if you are on the fence as a new shareholder but will they do this again. :?:


Of the £60bn investment over 25-2030, £28bn is going to New York and New England.


NG like to keep shareholders on their toes ( reading the rhs commentary in the link below) with adjustments and consolidations.

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... py?epic=NG.

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Re: National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

#666402

Postby Arborbridge » May 29th, 2024, 7:53 am

IanTHughes wrote:
monabri wrote:Share price down 20% in 2 days
Dividend rebased down by ~20%
Must take up the share offer assuming funds availability or have one's shareholding diluted.
Possibly Jam tomorrow?

What was in it for the shareholders?

When reporting on the loss of value, one really should take into account the value of the Rights, which have been received free of cost.

Enjoy!


Ian


As luck would have it, I am going away over the critical time for this event, so I must decide what to do this morning. My feeling so far: do I want to invest a fairly large dollop of my surplus cash in NG, rather than something else? Probably not: I'd rather keep the cash and have a free choice. So, I'm thinking of just selling the rights now in the market to have done with the pesky issue before I go.

If I do that - I then need to think around how to deal with this as an event in my HYP. OK, I get some cash on selling the rights, but what is that cash, and how to account for it?

Quite honestly, my mind is focussed on the horror of packing and rushing out the door later this morning, so any input about this that I can refer to later would be gratefully received.

Arb.

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Re: National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

#666414

Postby IanTHughes » May 29th, 2024, 9:27 am

Arborbridge wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:When reporting on the loss of value, one really should take into account the value of the Rights, which have been received free of cost.

As luck would have it, I am going away over the critical time for this event, so I must decide what to do this morning. My feeling so far: do I want to invest a fairly large dollop of my surplus cash in NG, rather than something else? Probably not: I'd rather keep the cash and have a free choice. So, I'm thinking of just selling the rights now in the market to have done with the pesky issue before I go.

If I do that - I then need to think around how to deal with this as an event in my HYP. OK, I get some cash on selling the rights, but what is that cash, and how to account for it?

Quite honestly, my mind is focussed on the horror of packing and rushing out the door later this morning, so any input about this that I can refer to later would be gratefully received.

Rights Issue prospectus: https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/ ... id=1823678

First of all, ignore the downturn in the value of you original holding of National Grid PLC (NG). That drop in value has no doubt occurred as a result of Market disquiet about the Rights Issue. Whether the price recovers or not, the same effects will be felt whatever you decide to do next.

Second, you must attempt to work out whether NG is a sensible selection for your High Yield Portfolio (HYP). The fact that you are considering exercising rights is irrelevant, As always you are deciding where next to invest your hard-earned cash. In the prospectus provided by NG, it is stated that the dividend for the year ending 31 March 2025 will be 45.30p per share, making for a yield - 5.17%at yesterday's - 28 May 2024 - close of business price - 876.60p. You of course are being offered these new shares at a price of 834.15p, calculated from the Exercise price - 645.00p - plus the price of the Rights at yesterday's - 28 May 2024 - close of business price - 189.15p - making for a yield - 5.43%. Not a bad yield but maybe not the highest on offer? It's your HYP, only you can say.

Third, you must determine, as best you can, how sustainable this dividend will be, and how likely it will be increased over time. Again from the prospectus provided by NG, it is stated that the intention is to increase the dividend each year, by the Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH). In this regard, It should be noted that, over many years, even a couple of decades, NG have been as good as their word with regard to dividend increases, as I reported here:

viewtopic.php?f=94&t=16990&p=665429#p665429

Although one of the "virtual" HYPs that I monitor has a holding, I personally have no "real" holding in NG, so have no skin in this particular game. I would say however, that what is being offered, at the current prices, does look somewhat attractive. Of course, only you know the current diversity of your own HYP, and what other possible candidates you may be considering.

Good luck with your decision.

Enjoy!


Ian.
p.s. do try and enjoy your holiday!

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Re: National Grid PLC (NG.) - 2023/24 Full Year Results

#666418

Postby Arborbridge » May 29th, 2024, 9:32 am

IanTHughes wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:As luck would have it, I am going away over the critical time for this event, so I must decide what to do this morning. My feeling so far: do I want to invest a fairly large dollop of my surplus cash in NG, rather than something else? Probably not: I'd rather keep the cash and have a free choice. So, I'm thinking of just selling the rights now in the market to have done with the pesky issue before I go.

If I do that - I then need to think around how to deal with this as an event in my HYP. OK, I get some cash on selling the rights, but what is that cash, and how to account for it?

Quite honestly, my mind is focussed on the horror of packing and rushing out the door later this morning, so any input about this that I can refer to later would be gratefully received.

Rights Issue prospectus: https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/ ... id=1823678

First of all, ignore the downturn in the value of you original holding of National Grid PLC (NG). That drop in value has no doubt occurred as a result of Market disquiet about the Rights Issue. Whether the price recovers or not, the same effects will be felt whatever you decide to do next.

Second, you must attempt to work out whether NG is a sensible selection for your High Yield Portfolio (HYP). The fact that you are considering exercising rights is irrelevant, As always you are deciding where next to invest your hard-earned cash. In the prospectus provided by NG, it is stated that the dividend for the year ending 31 March 2025 will be 45.30p per share, making for a yield - 5.17%at yesterday's - 28 May 2024 - close of business price - 876.60p. You of course are being offered these new shares at a price of 834.15p, calculated from the Exercise price - 645.00p - plus the price of the Rights at yesterday's - 28 May 2024 - close of business price - 189.15p - making for a yield - 5.43%. Not a bad yield but maybe not the highest on offer? It's your HYP, only you can say.

Third, you must determine, as best you can, how sustainable this dividend will be, and how likely it will be increased over time. Again from the prospectus provided by NG, it is stated that the intention is to increase the dividend each year, by the Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH). In this regard, It should be noted that, over many years, even a couple of decades, NG have been as good as their word with regard to dividend increases, as I reported here:

viewtopic.php?f=94&t=16990&p=665429#p665429

Although one of the "virtual" HYPs that I monitor has a holding, I personally have no "real" holding in NG, so have no skin in this particular game. I would say however, that what is being offered, at the current prices, does look somewhat attractive. Of course, only you know the current diversity of your own HYP, and what other possible candidates you may be considering.

Good luck with your decision.

Enjoy!


Ian.
p.s. do try and enjoy your holiday!


Thanks Ian - in haste,

John


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