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Greene King trading update

Practical discussions about equity High-Yield Portfolios (HYP) for income
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idpickering
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Re: Greene King trading update

#80854

Postby idpickering » September 13th, 2017, 2:19 pm

idpickering wrote:
OLTB wrote:
monabri wrote:After Friday, is anyone considering a swift half top up in GNK?


I think Arb is and, if I had some cash (which I will do at the end of September when various dividends drop in) I would strongly consider it. The trading update release didn't say GNK were stopping/reducing dividends and, as HYPers isn't that all we're concerned with?... :?

As Basil would say, 'don't mention the capital, I mentioned it once but think I got away with it '.

Cheers, OLTB.


I might top up, but I will wait until the next update on 10 Oct 17, before I make my mind up either way. I get the "the time to buy is now" aspect of the HYP sport, and I may miss out on the current SP fall, but better to wait than grasp a knife in that might be in freefall IMHO.

Ian.


Further to this, and in the spirit of openness and honesty, I have just set my Halifax ISA to buy more GNK on 21/09/17. IMHO I think the sell off has been overdone. I'm no expert, just a gut feeling. Back to the garden, and shandy..... :D

Ian.

OLTB
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Re: Greene King trading update

#80868

Postby OLTB » September 13th, 2017, 3:27 pm

idpickering wrote:
Further to this, and in the spirit of openness and honesty, I have just set my Halifax ISA to buy more GNK on 21/09/17. IMHO I think the sell off has been overdone. I'm no expert, just a gut feeling. Back to the garden, and shandy..... :D

Ian.


Thanks Ian

Pyad mentions Greene King in his latest weekly update and admits he is in a bit of a dilemma as there is now a higher than normal possibility that they may freeze or cut dividends. He doesn't know they will do of course, just that there's an increased likelihood. He keeps GNK as a 'buy' as even if they freeze dividends at 33.2p, it still delivers a 6% yield - he does also stress that he might be entirely wrong and that we'll all know a lot more about dividends when the interim results are due out on the 30th November.

Cheers, OLTB.

monabri
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Re: Greene King trading update

#80874

Postby monabri » September 13th, 2017, 3:42 pm

The div cover and forecasts from digital look would not suggest an issue.

http://www.digitallook.com/equity/Greene_King

Maybe it was the thin end of the wedge ( sales down 1.2%) ? Sales down a full 1.2%!

BreakoutBoy
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Re: Greene King trading update

#80876

Postby BreakoutBoy » September 13th, 2017, 3:48 pm

PAul Scott mentioned in his Small Cap Value report that people may still be taking holidays abroad but with the weak pound they underestimate their spend overseas. on returning home they are counting their pennies and may not be hitting the pubs and restaurants so much.

Made sense to me, if pubcos are finding their sales down. The problem with this industry is a small fall in sales may have a disproportionate hit on profitability owing to all the fixed costs involved.

idpickering
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Re: Greene King trading update

#80878

Postby idpickering » September 13th, 2017, 3:50 pm

OLTB wrote:
idpickering wrote:
Further to this, and in the spirit of openness and honesty, I have just set my Halifax ISA to buy more GNK on 21/09/17. IMHO I think the sell off has been overdone. I'm no expert, just a gut feeling. Back to the garden, and shandy..... :D

Ian.


Thanks Ian

Pyad mentions Greene King in his latest weekly update and admits he is in a bit of a dilemma as there is now a higher than normal possibility that they may freeze or cut dividends. He doesn't know they will do of course, just that there's an increased likelihood. He keeps GNK as a 'buy' as even if they freeze dividends at 33.2p, it still delivers a 6% yield - he does also stress that he might be entirely wrong and that we'll all know a lot more about dividends when the interim results are due out on the 30th November.

Cheers, OLTB.


Thanks for that OLTB. I'll 'pickering' it some more :D

Ian.

idpickering
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Re: Greene King trading update

#81008

Postby idpickering » September 14th, 2017, 9:20 am

Well, in keeping with my fickleness, I have elected to back away from a Greene King purchase in favour of bringing Galliford Try on board instead.

Regards,

Ian.

Wizard
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Re: Greene King trading update

#81010

Postby Wizard » September 14th, 2017, 9:25 am

Only caught a brief mention of it, but Radio 4 this morning referenced a report saying future of pubs looked grim because young people prefer to stay at home and talk on their phones rather than actually meet up with friends.

Terry.

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Re: Greene King trading update

#81017

Postby Bouleversee » September 14th, 2017, 9:30 am

idpickering wrote:Well, in keeping with my fickleness, I have elected to back away from a Greene King purchase in favour of bringing Galliford Try on board instead.

Regards,

Ian.


FWIW Tempus in The Times today has Gallliford Try down as a buy so hopefully you have made the right decision and it's a case of Pickering pays,

UncleEbenezer
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Re: Greene King trading update

#81018

Postby UncleEbenezer » September 14th, 2017, 9:33 am

Wizard wrote:Only caught a brief mention of it, but Radio 4 this morning referenced a report saying future of pubs looked grim because young people prefer to stay at home and talk on their phones rather than actually meet up with friends.

Terry.

Well, I've heard that kind of story for as long as I can remember. Going back to when I was too young to be allowed in a pub, let alone afford it.

Look at Costa and Starbucks for who's eaten much of our pubs' social get-together lunch. Whitbread got it right (for a big chain) when they bought Costa and got out of brewing beer.

OLTB
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Re: Greene King trading update

#81025

Postby OLTB » September 14th, 2017, 10:03 am

Wizard wrote:Only caught a brief mention of it, but Radio 4 this morning referenced a report saying future of pubs looked grim because young people prefer to stay at home and talk on their phones rather than actually meet up with friends.

Terry.


It's been happening for a while apparently - my 19 year old has said that when him and his friends are out on the town they indulge in 'pre's' which apparently means buying booze from a shop/supermarket and drinking at a friends house and then going out as drinks are so expensive for them in Bristol.

When we have gone to a Greene King pub (or one of their branded chains - Chef & Brewer (thanks to the Spirit takeover a few years ago), Farmhouse Inns, Flaming Grill, Hungry Horse, Loch Fyne, Fayre & Square, Wacky Warehouse (the hell) etc. etc.) they seem to be more budget/cheap food places that sell Greene King beer (and others) if you want it, rather than just a pub primarily selling booze. Try getting a seat at the some of the local places mentioned above near me and you'll be lucky. They always seem to be heaving with people/family's so I don't think that the youngster market is Greene Kings.

In their trading statement, Greene King say that their like for like sales in the Pub Company division fell 1.2%, however, the two other divisions classed as 'Pub Partners' and 'Brewing and Brands' continued to deliver strong returns.

With in excess of 3,000 properties, they are also a pretty well diversified property company!

I will still wait until the next announcement of interim results in November before committing any further funds though because of the recent statement.

Cheers, OLTB.

idpickering
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Re: Greene King trading update

#81087

Postby idpickering » September 14th, 2017, 2:28 pm

Bouleversee wrote:
idpickering wrote:Well, in keeping with my fickleness, I have elected to back away from a Greene King purchase in favour of bringing Galliford Try on board instead.

Regards,

Ian.


FWIW Tempus in The Times today has Gallliford Try down as a buy so hopefully you have made the right decision and it's a case of Pickering pays,


Thanks for your input Bouleversee. The money is not being invested until 21/09/17, so plenty of time for me to dither some more. I used to be indecisive, but now I'm not so sure. :lol:

Ian.

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Re: Greene King trading update

#81094

Postby Bouleversee » September 14th, 2017, 3:01 pm

Love it, Ian!

idpickering
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Re: Greene King trading update

#81207

Postby idpickering » September 15th, 2017, 7:14 am

For comparison purposes only, here's Wetherspoon's results put out this morning;



Seems better than Green KIng, so maybe the problem is GKN itself?

Ian.

idpickering
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Re: Greene King trading update

#81210

Postby idpickering » September 15th, 2017, 7:31 am

idpickering wrote:
Seems better than Green KIng, so maybe the problem is GKN itself?

Ian.


Or GNK, before someone else picks that up. :D

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Re: Greene King trading update

#81214

Postby Gengulphus » September 15th, 2017, 8:10 am

idpickering wrote:
idpickering wrote:
Seems better than Green KIng, so maybe the problem is GKN itself?

Ian.


Or GNK, before someone else picks that up. :D

OK - we know you meant Greene King! ;-)

Gengulphus

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Re: Greene King trading update

#81219

Postby ayshfm1 » September 15th, 2017, 8:31 am

My wife accidentally owns a sizable chunk for her of GKN. I didn't realise my fat finger typing until the dividend rocked up. I have elected to do nothing about the error! But mentally noted I need to check what I'm buying properly in future.

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Re: Greene King trading update

#81231

Postby Bouleversee » September 15th, 2017, 9:38 am

Be thankful for fat fingers.

CommissarJones
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Re: Greene King trading update

#81345

Postby CommissarJones » September 15th, 2017, 2:00 pm

ayshfm1 wrote:My wife accidentally owns a sizable chunk for her of GKN. I didn't realise my fat finger typing until the dividend rocked up. I have elected to do nothing about the error! But mentally noted I need to check what I'm buying properly in future.


The same thing happened at least once on the Dutch stock market because of confusion involving national post and phone company KPN, which had gone public, and KNP Leykam, a paper producer that also was listed at the time.

Breelander
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Re: Greene King trading update

#81390

Postby Breelander » September 15th, 2017, 6:57 pm

CommissarJones wrote:The same thing happened at least once on the Dutch stock market...


And in America...

The Verge: Twitter IPO filing prompts mistaken buying rush of worthless TWTRQ stock

idpickering
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Re: Greene King trading update

#81521

Postby idpickering » September 16th, 2017, 7:10 pm

idpickering wrote:Well, in keeping with my fickleness, I have elected to back away from a Greene King purchase in favour of bringing Galliford Try on board instead.

Regards,

Ian.


Heaven's sake, I'm so fickle. I have decided, and my chosen top up this month is British Land. For what it's worth, I decided to stick to my tried and trusted long held shares, rather than trying to be to big for my HYP boots, and going for Galliford and such-like. Enough dithering, there's darts on.

Ian.


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