The Lemon Fool

Personally I am quite unconvinced by Vodafone as a business which seems to exhibit zombie like behaviour, ie stumbling around eating the living to feed itself, every new takeover being another temporary corporeal meal prior to undead resting. It's a business whose returns on capital are meagre at best, but might (or not) have a value at lower levels. Possibly interested when and if they cut the dividend to a sustainable level and exorcise it back into fitness, for now I avoid.

csh

cshfool wrote:Personally I am quite unconvinced by Vodafone as a business which seems to exhibit zombie like behaviour, ie stumbling around eating the living to feed itself, every new takeover being another temporary corporeal meal prior to undead resting. It's a business whose returns on capital are meagre at best, but might (or not) have a value at lower levels. Possibly interested when and if they cut the dividend to a sustainable level and exorcise it back into fitness, for now I avoid.

csh

Possessed by the devil then?

I do miss Valuemargin. This is the sort of project that he could get his teeth into.
Anyone care to essay on "Is VF dividend sustainable?"

Note that Vodafone reports it's dividend in EUR now, so currency fluctuations will also change your GBP payment. Which will increase again perhaps in the near future .... (Am I allowed to mention the B-word here, or should I just be incanting "Strategic Ignorance" with my fingers in my ears ...?)

moorfield wrote:Note that Vodafone reports it's dividend in EUR now, so currency fluctuations will also change your GBP payment. Which will increase again perhaps in the near future .... (Am I allowed to mention the B-word here, or should I just be incanting "Strategic Ignorance" with my fingers in my ears ...?)

Definitely not the latter - as you say, increased currency fluctuations are a possibility in the near future. That's quite enough to say that "Strategic Ignorance" does not apply to them.

Gengulphus

moorfield wrote:Note that Vodafone reports it's dividend in EUR now, so currency fluctuations will also change your GBP payment. Which will increase again perhaps in the near future .... (Am I allowed to mention the B-word here, or should I just be incanting "Strategic Ignorance" with my fingers in my ears ...?)

Currency fluctuations will always affect dividends for a share that accounts in FX and VOD is not special in that sense. TUI and ULVR for example, HYP shares that I have selected in the past, also account in euros and there are a number of HYP shares that use the US dollar. The B word is utterly irrelevant for HYPers so that taking a view on future €/£ movements due to Brexit or whatever reason and similarly the US $, is something that should be disregarded for HYPing, in other words yes, SI rules here.

Whether or not you should stick your fingers in your ears whilst applying it is up to you but if you are one of those who don't believe in SI, implying that in consequence you think you know something about the future, good luck with that, you're going to need it.

pyad wrote:Whether or not you should stick your fingers in your ears whilst applying it is up to you but if you are one of those who don't believe in SI, implying that in consequence you think you know something about the future, good luck with that, you're going to need it.

I don’t completely believe in SI, but if I’m struggling with nebulous financial statements or unqualified opinion I often find running through a few incantations of SI does help soothe the chakras. And then I usually end up buying more shares!

idpickering wrote:Very brave YeeWo, if I may say. Can I ask how many shares you hold? My limits are no more than 5% per share, and 10% per sector. Ian.

Ian. 21 different holdings : below my portfolio as is today. I'm not wild about being so overweight on Vodafone and as I've previously stated i'll trim when profitable to do so. Thus far I'm +1.89% YTD, which is a source of frustration and is, tbh, probably the catalyst for the Vodafone position! GLA........

YeeWo wrote:Ian. 21 different holdings : below my portfolio as is today. I'm not wild about being so overweight on Vodafone and as I've previously stated i'll trim when profitable to do so. Thus far I'm +1.89% YTD, which is a source of frustration and is, tbh, probably the catalyst for the Vodafone position! GLA........

Code: Select all

Stock | Shareprice | % Portfolio | XIRR 
AZN   |     £59.88 |        2.4% | 33.03%
BP    |      £5.49 |        5.8% | 16.23%
BATS  |     £42.07 |        6.9% | -5.17%
BLND  |      £6.36 |        3.6% |  8.55%
CCH   |     £26.27 |        2.0% | 13.60%
DGE   |     £27.96 |        4.6% | 11.85%
FEET  |     £12.90 |        2.1% | -1.75%
G4S   |      £2.50 |        4.0% | 28.21%
GSK   |     £16.20 |        4.5% |  1.71%
HSBA  |      £6.94 |        4.5% |  9.60%
IMB   |     £29.85 |        7.3% | -5.17%
INCH  |      £7.02 |        4.6% | 12.66%
IHG   |     £47.53 |        3.9% | 12.23%
JLT   |     £14.44 |        3.8% | 30.16%
RB    |     £68.34 |        4.5% |  1.17%
REL   |     £17.19 |        4.2% | 20.70%
RR    |     £10.24 |        2.9% |  9.54%
RDSB  |     £25.25 |        7.2% | 33.35%
SN    |     £13.61 |        4.5% |  9.98%
ULVR  |     £44.57 |        5.5% | 12.97%
VOD   |      £1.77 |       11.2% | -7.03%


Thank you very much for coming back on this. It's always interesting to see other HYPs. You have a nice array of shares there, some not oft mentioned hereabouts. After yesterdays news I'd worry about G4S myself.

All the best,

Ian.

YeeWo wrote:

idpickering wrote:Very brave YeeWo, if I may say. Can I ask how many shares you hold? My limits are no more than 5% per share, and 10% per sector. Ian.

Ian. 21 different holdings : below my portfolio as is today. I'm not wild about being so overweight on Vodafone and as I've previously stated i'll trim when profitable to do so.

My Holding Concentration Limit is 6.50%, so a little more relaxed than idpickering but 11.2%? Oh no, not for me.

A couple of questions:

The value of my holding of Vodafone Group PLC (VOD) has gone sideways since my first purchase in April 2012. Was your racking up a portfolio concentration of 11.2% a deliberate act?

also

Why are you intending to trim back? Why not simply direct new money elsewhere?


An interesting looking HYP by the way, thanks for sharing. As someone said, it contains a few that are "not the usual suspects"

Ian

IanTHughes wrote:value of my holding of Vodafone Group PLC (VOD) has gone sideways since my first purchase in April 2012. Was your racking up a portfolio concentration of 11.2% a deliberate act?

Yes it was deliberate act driven by two key factors a) I sold my WPP stock and needed to redeploy the proceeds usefully and b) The dividend yield on Vodafone is so good (at least for now!).

IanTHughes wrote:Why are you intending to trim back? Why not simply direct new money elsewhere?

If possible to profitably trim I will do so in order to de-risk my holding in VOD.

IanTHughes wrote: interesting looking HYP by the way, thanks for sharing. As someone said, it contains a few that are "not the usual suspects"

In the strictest sense it can be described, at best, as HYPish. I'm in my mid40s, still working and building this for the long term. Dividend Yield while a decent metric to demonstrate a business is producing the-goods isn't the only metric front of my mind. I look at TR as well........Capital, to me at least , is important!

YeeWo wrote:

IanTHughes wrote:Why are you intending to trim back? Why not simply direct new money elsewhere?

If possible to profitably trim I will do so in order to de-risk my holding in VOD.

When you say de-risk, is that because the holding is now "too" large as a % of your total portfolio or that it is a large % of your income.

I hold and have done for a while, I have deferred topping it up at times due to its cover and p/e but that has not changed much since Verizon. I have topped up this year and it is towards the top of my list now but with BT it is close to my sector limit.

I would like to know if this de-risk is more to do with your phase of building your portfolio than your dividend income stream.

Raptor

Raptor wrote:I would like to know if this de-risk is more to do with your phase of building your portfolio than your dividend income stream.

Raptor

I would have thought that it could apply both to size of holding and contribution to portfolio income.

That is irrespective of whether the portfolio is accumulating or being drawn on.

TJH