The Lemon Fool

Having sold on the rumour, do I now buy back in the morning when the share price falls back?

I did re-purchase Astra Zeneca and Severn Trent after failed takeovers but not sure the yield makes Unilever a HYP share anymore, so tempted to top-up United Utilities and National Grid instead. Higher yielding and doesn't break my sector/income rules.

Crazbe7

Crazbe7 wrote:Having sold on the rumour, do I now buy back in the morning when the share price falls back?

Crazbe7

As you will be aware, an HYP investor does not do such things, because a sudden rise is not a reason to either sell or trim a holding.

If you sold because the yield had fallen below an acceptable level, then buying back in would call for a bigger fall than the rise exerienced to justify it.

If you trimmed the holding because of the rise in value, then you would have reinvested the proceeds in a share with a higher yield. There is no justification for reversing this process.

Do you really think that ULVR yielding 2.9%, or even 3.3% after a fall back to the status quo ante, is a justifiable new purchase for an HYP?

TJH

Terry.

DrBunsenHoneydew wrote:Predict effect on share price tomorrow?

It was up 13.43% on Friday, soooo it'll perhaps lose that, less some residual 'hope value' that a revised bid or another bidder will emerge in due course. But re: a revised bid I've seen no talk of that, and KH do seem to have royally torpedoed themselves... so maybe -10% for ULVR today?

Breelander wrote:CEO Paul Polman already holds over £16m worth, the CFO Jean-Marc Huët has over £6m, exec. director Graeme Pitkethly has nearly £1m and non-exec director Michael Treschow about half a million. http://www.digitallook.com/equity/Unile ... ctor-deals
How much more do you want them to buy?

Did they buy them, or were they granted [in lieu of cash] as part of their compensation. When I was employed in a US company a large part of the annual remuneration was paid via stock, options, and multiple types of 'Long-Term Incentive Compensation', all non-cash. Given the choice I don't think anyone would have preferred those schemes to cash. An associated problem with these stock etc schemes is if you seek to sell them, or more than a fraction that might be argued is for diversification purposes, as it's [IME] considered an act of disloyalty to the company. So, IME senior staff having large holdings that they have not bought on a discretionary basis for cash means very little IMO.

Now what?

Mutual back-scratching and respect(?)

Offer gone. No doubt should have sold on Friday.

<yawn>is it over?</yawn>

So glad HYP is LTBH. Masterly inaction. Pooh not Tigger. Time for some porridge... maybe a little honey with it.

Offer gone. No doubt should have sold on Friday.

You are back in the envious position you were before: owning a slice of a great company. I don't see any cause for regret.

Why be a trader when you can just sit back and enjoy?

Arb.

Arborbridge wrote:I'd guess the problems stemming from European or dual Law considerations may well have put the kibosh on this, in which case is there a hint on the way to go for our future? The Dutch seem to have got it right with these large companies: it is not good enough just to consider the interest of shareholders or directors (who stand to profit enormously).

According to the Telegraph it was a solely UK-centric response which caused the withdrawal. So yes this may well signal a change in Governmental attitude to certain business matters, maybe Mrs May has caught the mood and to misquote Trump was advocating "Britain first". This incident could possibly put off other foreign buyers looking for London quoted bargains on the back of the fall in the pound. Presumably where such shares are HYP candidates something to be welcomed on this board.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... mega-deal/

Terry.

Down 6.6% or 6.7% as I write. If that's it then the nett effect of the Kraft bid will have been to push the capital value up by around 7%. Don't know if it will drift lower or if this is the new normal, but can't complain either way. At least with the early withdrawal Unilever won't be spending too much time fending off the bid; perhaps management time will be more focused on justifying the new share price and showing the value is really there...

Kraft shares closed 10.7% up (on NASDAQ) on Friday. It will be interesting to see what happens this afternoon.

VRD

vrdiver wrote:Down 6.6% or 6.7% as I write. If that's it then the nett effect of the Kraft bid will have been to push the capital value up by around 7%. Don't know if it will drift lower or if this is the new normal, but can't complain either way.

And I think that unless it falls further the yield is still going to be under 3% so not really an HYP choice for now IMHO. Personally I would have been happier if there had been a 30% fall this morning.

Terry.

Ian.

Funny old world.

Few here considered ULVR to be a HYP candidate. Now we have 99 posts about it!

toofast2live wrote:Funny old world.

Few here considered ULVR to be a HYP candidate. Now we have 99 posts about it!

It's probably not a candidate right now, but it has been in the past and it's probably in quite a few HYPers' portfolios. (Although maybe less now than last week if anybody redeployed the capital into something else after the bid!)

VRD


Oh, and it's a hundred posts...

vrdiver wrote:It's probably not a candidate right now, but it has been in the past and it's probably in quite a few HYPers' portfolios. (Although maybe less now than last week if anybody redeployed the capital into something else after the bid!)

I don't recall when it has ever been a candidate, or, one that qualified per the HYP metrics. Does anyone, for example when did it last cross the dividend yield% requirement?

DiamondEcho wrote:

vrdiver wrote:It's probably not a candidate right now, but it has been in the past and it's probably in quite a few HYPers' portfolios. (Although maybe less now than last week if anybody redeployed the capital into something else after the bid!)

I don't recall when it has ever been a candidate, or, one that qualified per the HYP metrics. Does anyone, for example when did it last cross the dividend yield% requirement?

As far as I'm concerned there is no dividend yield requirement for individual holdings. As long as the portfolio can be considered High Yield (which I would say is anything over market yield).

StepOne

StepOne wrote:
As far as I'm concerned there is no dividend yield requirement for individual holdings. As long as the portfolio can be considered High Yield (which I would say is anything over market yield).

StepOne

That's exactly the way that I view it but then I'm not one of these sophisticated (or wealthy) people who have a number of different portfolios and I'm not a HYP purist. I hold some Reckitt Benckiser which definitely isn't HY but since my holding has more than doubled in value in the 6 years I have held them, I'm not about to sell to increase my income. It is my intention to move to ITs when I am too old to manage my portfolio and at that point capital will matter.

RC

DiamondEcho wrote:

vrdiver wrote:It's probably not a candidate right now, but it has been in the past and it's probably in quite a few HYPers' portfolios. (Although maybe less now than last week if anybody redeployed the capital into something else after the bid!)

I don't recall when it has ever been a candidate, or, one that qualified per the HYP metrics. Does anyone, for example when did it last cross the dividend yield% requirement?

I bought ULVR on 09-Feb-2010 at 1,915p. The next four dividends added up to 71.24p (€0.832), giving a starting yield of 3.72%. Once of those "Buy now while stocks last" occasions.

I don't think that I was alone at the time.

TJH

I bought in March 2009 at £12.32 a share! I only bought 1/4 of a holding size for me. Wish I'd bought more.

fisher wrote:I bought in March 2009 at £12.32 a share! I only bought 1/4 of a holding size for me. Wish I'd bought more.

Given that March 2009 was the low in the S&P 500 (at 666, ominously) following the financial crisis, almost anything you bought then would have done very well. It's currently at 2,350 so Unilever has really just been a market performer.

Fortune favours the brave who buy when all around them are selling.