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In the red with Imperial Brands!

For discussion of the practicalities of setting up and operating income-portfolios which follow the HYP Group Guidelines. READ Guidelines before posting
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vrdiver
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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126641

Postby vrdiver » March 21st, 2018, 9:00 am

idpickering wrote:Funnily enough, as I have mentioned before, I doubled my holdings in RDSB when I bought some more on 21 Jan 2016, buying at 1305.4p per share. I bought at the weakest point. Maybe I should take a lesson from that and just buy more IMB tomorrow rather than Lloyd's instead!

Ian.


Excellent Ian! You have restored my faith in "pickering about" :lol:

(Since I think both are potentially good purchases, I feel your indecision.)

VRD

idpickering
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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126647

Postby idpickering » March 21st, 2018, 9:12 am

vrdiver wrote:
idpickering wrote:Funnily enough, as I have mentioned before, I doubled my holdings in RDSB when I bought some more on 21 Jan 2016, buying at 1305.4p per share. I bought at the weakest point. Maybe I should take a lesson from that and just buy more IMB tomorrow rather than Lloyd's instead!

Ian.


Excellent Ian! You have restored my faith in "pickering about" :lol:

(Since I think both are potentially good purchases, I feel your indecision.)

VRD


Hi VRD. Having just looked at my HYP again, I'm sticking with my top up of Lloyd's tomorrow. That'll be the last for them for a while, and I get in before the ex divi date next month. I may look at IMB for next month. They're (IMB) not going to disappear altogether (hopefully) :) .

Ian.

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126657

Postby Arborbridge » March 21st, 2018, 9:41 am

idpickering wrote:Hi VRD. Having just looked at my HYP again, I'm sticking with my top up of Lloyd's tomorrow. That'll be the last for them for a while, and I get in before the ex divi date next month. I may look at IMB for next month. They're (IMB) not going to disappear altogether (hopefully) :) .

Ian.


No obvious reason to pickering away your current plan.
Lloyds share price is fairly stable, whereas IMB is falling steeply, so waiting another month is probably not a bad thing. It'll give more time for the mist to clear and if the share does happen to rally, though this will be a minor annoyance, it is unlikely to rally so much as to affect your yield greatly. With luck, over the summer, you may find the ideal situation: an acceptable yield with an upward trend in price.

And there's a hostage to fortune!


Arb.

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126666

Postby monabri » March 21st, 2018, 10:22 am

idpickering wrote:
monabri wrote:Just wondering....Jan 20 2016 ( before my " HYP time" ) with RDSB at 1277p...were there similar conversations?
Purchase of RDSB then would be delivering quite an attractive yield based on purchase price


Funnily enough, as I have mentioned before, I doubled my holdings in RDSB when I bought some more on 21 Jan 2016, buying at 1305.4p per share. I bought at the weakest point. Maybe I should take a lesson from that and just buy more IMB tomorrow rather than Lloyd's instead!

Ian.


I know..I remembered one of your postings - nice timing ("mystic"). ;)

idpickering
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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126667

Postby idpickering » March 21st, 2018, 10:23 am

Arborbridge wrote:
idpickering wrote:Hi VRD. Having just looked at my HYP again, I'm sticking with my top up of Lloyd's tomorrow. That'll be the last for them for a while, and I get in before the ex divi date next month. I may look at IMB for next month. They're (IMB) not going to disappear altogether (hopefully) :) .

Ian.


No obvious reason to pickering away your current plan.
Lloyds share price is fairly stable, whereas IMB is falling steeply, so waiting another month is probably not a bad thing. It'll give more time for the mist to clear and if the share does happen to rally, though this will be a minor annoyance, it is unlikely to rally so much as to affect your yield greatly. With luck, over the summer, you may find the ideal situation: an acceptable yield with an upward trend in price.

And there's a hostage to fortune!


Arb.


Thanks for your input Arb. As you say, no need to Pickering with my planning. There’s no rush, and I’m relieved to get my head back on track.

Ian.

idpickering
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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126679

Postby idpickering » March 21st, 2018, 11:27 am

monabri wrote:
idpickering wrote:
monabri wrote:Just wondering....Jan 20 2016 ( before my " HYP time" ) with RDSB at 1277p...were there similar conversations?
Purchase of RDSB then would be delivering quite an attractive yield based on purchase price


Funnily enough, as I have mentioned before, I doubled my holdings in RDSB when I bought some more on 21 Jan 2016, buying at 1305.4p per share. I bought at the weakest point. Maybe I should take a lesson from that and just buy more IMB tomorrow rather than Lloyd's instead!

Ian.


I know..I remembered one of your postings - nice timing ("mystic"). ;)


It's a knack monabri, lol. Hey, if I'm that good maybe I should go back to plan A, IMB. :D Nah, Lloyd's it is.

Ian.
Last edited by idpickering on March 21st, 2018, 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126682

Postby Bouleversee » March 21st, 2018, 11:29 am

Down another 1.37%.

idpickering
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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126686

Postby idpickering » March 21st, 2018, 11:43 am

Bouleversee wrote:Down another 1.37%.


I'm now down 6% in capital value terms with IMB Bouleversee! I bet most of our gang here are in the red now? But it's about the income, right? :D

Chin up all.

Ian.

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126689

Postby Bouleversee » March 21st, 2018, 11:51 am

idpickering wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:Down another 1.37%.


I'm now down 6% in capital value terms with IMB Bouleversee! I bet most of our gang here are in the red now? But it's about the income, right? :D

Chin up all.

Ian.


I was merely pointing out that it was an even better time to buy, Ian. Time for more Pickering ;)

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126694

Postby Arborbridge » March 21st, 2018, 12:09 pm

IMB is being talked about, but don't forget that many - even most? - HYP shares are down recently, or even over a year or more. Some have gone against the grain like BLT, Tesco and Morrisons :lol: and are showing rises.

Arb.

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126696

Postby monabri » March 21st, 2018, 12:14 pm

Well, I make the yield 7.3% (170/2335p)....I'm slightly more than 6% down! (25%). :(

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126705

Postby monabri » March 21st, 2018, 12:30 pm

And at 3908p I make BATS yield at 4.99%.

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126712

Postby Walrus » March 21st, 2018, 12:53 pm

Hello

Having started my HYP portfolio over the course of the end of 16 this is the first time I've taken a real bath on any component. So much so in fact I felt the need to make my first post :)

Now looking at my notes I was very happy investing in this at a 4.7 percent yield in a highly cash generative business all be it in declining industry but providibgbsone diversification. looking at now and where bond yields are going that does appear to be expensive.

However at a yield now in excess of 7 percent I'm really tempted to double down on this.

However I think the recent Carillion events which I luckily avoided has got my spidey senses tingling on this. Everything coming out of the company is telling me nothing to see here, but the share price is telling me big players must be getting out of this and I'm not following the reasoning.

So a question to the older hands in this, would you consider this an unusual time in the life of the HYP or is this consistent with what you have seen previously through bear markets. Presumably in those periods you were regularly averaging down, is it natural to be nervous about investing like this? I guess since the end of the year I've been feeling more and more nervous about the market and almost that the HYP as become a full time job and I'm watching it like a hawk daily.

Apologies for the rambling nature if the post :)

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126720

Postby idpickering » March 21st, 2018, 1:10 pm

Walrus wrote:Hello

Having started my HYP portfolio over the course of the end of 16 this is the first time I've taken a real bath on any component. So much so in fact I felt the need to make my first post :)

Now looking at my notes I was very happy investing in this at a 4.7 percent yield in a highly cash generative business all be it in declining industry but providibgbsone diversification. looking at now and where bond yields are going that does appear to be expensive.

However at a yield now in excess of 7 percent I'm really tempted to double down on this.

However I think the recent Carillion events which I luckily avoided has got my spidey senses tingling on this. Everything coming out of the company is telling me nothing to see here, but the share price is telling me big players must be getting out of this and I'm not following the reasoning.

So a question to the older hands in this, would you consider this an unusual time in the life of the HYP or is this consistent with what you have seen previously through bear markets. Presumably in those periods you were regularly averaging down, is it natural to be nervous about investing like this? I guess since the end of the year I've been feeling more and more nervous about the market and almost that the HYP as become a full time job and I'm watching it like a hawk daily.

Apologies for the rambling nature if the post :)


Welcome to the forum Walrus. I get where you’re coming from. If you invested at 4.7%, then the current yield on offer is even more tempting. I do tend to try to average down my purchase prices if one of my holdings is on offer. I’m talking myself into buying more IMB. :D

Ian.

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126721

Postby idpickering » March 21st, 2018, 1:12 pm

Bouleversee wrote:
idpickering wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:Down another 1.37%.


I'm now down 6% in capital value terms with IMB Bouleversee! I bet most of our gang here are in the red now? But it's about the income, right? :D

Chin up all.

Ian.


I was merely pointing out that it was an even better time to buy, Ian. Time for more Pickering ;)


I don’t mind admitting that I am tempted.

Ian.

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126722

Postby moorfield » March 21st, 2018, 1:13 pm

Might 98 posts in be an appropriate point at which to reflect on the Parable of Strategic Ignorance? :twisted:

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126733

Postby idpickering » March 21st, 2018, 2:14 pm

ap8889 wrote:I am 37% down on one parcel, and worse, it was one of my largest holdings. I averaged down at -20%, and looks like I may get a further opportunity to average down again at -40%.

Another cracking paper loss, in real money terms 4x my hit from briefly holding Carillion.


Interesting ap8889. What’s you plan going forward?

Ian

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126735

Postby kempiejon » March 21st, 2018, 2:23 pm

Dividend announcements still maintain an ambition for real above inflation growth and the history shows us double digit growth over a five, ten and fifteen years plus. The switch to quarterlies a few years back means that cash comes more often throughout the year rather than with interim and finals. So far so good I'd say. I'll remind myself of an early mistake with the advice when maintaining a portfolio keep positions more or less in balance do not overweight what appear to be bargains. Come the new tax year I'll look again at my portfolio balance but tobacco does not come high on my top up priority 7% yield not withstanding.

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126738

Postby Arborbridge » March 21st, 2018, 2:30 pm

Walrus wrote:Hello


So a question to the older hands in this, would you consider this an unusual time in the life of the HYP or is this consistent with what you have seen previously through bear markets. Presumably in those periods you were regularly averaging down, is it natural to be nervous about investing like this? I guess since the end of the year I've been feeling more and more nervous about the market and almost that the HYP as become a full time job and I'm watching it like a hawk daily.

Apologies for the rambling nature if the post :)



It takes several years not to worry about passing phases in HYP, and to watch the market like a hawk shows that you are still in that early stage 8-)
I've been investing since 1986 and I've seen bear markets come, go and be forgotten about. I started my HYP in 2006/7 - not exactly a good time! - but it has continued to provide me with sufficient income after the initial drop of the banking crisis.

Once you accept that big companies are not all likely to go bust, but are more than likely to carry on paying good dividends in the same old way, then you've turned into a HYPer. Focus on the income, not the capital. I don't like what's happening to capital values right now any more than anyone else. I suggest we mught be in for much worse: however, it does not disturb me as I've been through it several times already. Buy occasional tranches of shares, keep some cash on one side and spread it out over the next year or two.

Markets dive, and markets turn up again. If they stop doing that, then we will be worrying about far more than our share prices.

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Re: In the red with Imperial Brands!

#126746

Postby Walrus » March 21st, 2018, 3:31 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Walrus wrote:Hello


So a question to the older hands in this, would you consider this an unusual time in the life of the HYP or is this consistent with what you have seen previously through bear markets. Presumably in those periods you were regularly averaging down, is it natural to be nervous about investing like this? I guess since the end of the year I've been feeling more and more nervous about the market and almost that the HYP as become a full time job and I'm watching it like a hawk daily.

Apologies for the rambling nature if the post :)



It takes several years not to worry about passing phases in HYP, and to watch the market like a hawk shows that you are still in that early stage 8-)
I've been investing since 1986 and I've seen bear markets come, go and be forgotten about. I started my HYP in 2006/7 - not exactly a good time! - but it has continued to provide me with sufficient income after the initial drop of the banking crisis.

Once you accept that big companies are not all likely to go bust, but are more than likely to carry on paying good dividends in the same old way, then you've turned into a HYPer. Focus on the income, not the capital. I don't like what's happening to capital values right now any more than anyone else. I suggest we mught be in for much worse: however, it does not disturb me as I've been through it several times already. Buy occasional tranches of shares, keep some cash on one side and spread it out over the next year or two.

Markets dive, and markets turn up again. If they stop doing that, then we will be worrying about far more than our share prices.


Thankyou Sir, I think there is a strong case for stepping away from the trigger as I don't really want to have an outsized position in this. I will continue with my planned purchase of Shell this month.


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