Greene King RNS

[maximan]

BlackRock Inc have acquired a 5.6% holding and an extra 0.74% through a financial Instrument (securities lending) .

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exch ... 72668.html

On Castellain Capital BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, National Association are showing a 0.66% short position.

On Friday there were 9.8 million shares showing as sales on MoneyAM which is many times more than usual. On Thursday night they closed at 484p then early on Friday they hit 507.6p but closed at 476.5p.

They closed tonight up 6.6p at 483.1p.

Something seems to be happening but who knows what?

[maximan]

Another RNS re Black Rock Inc and although their total holding has only decreased by 0.02% the shares element is now 3.96% ( previously 5.6% ) and the securities lending is 2.36% (previously 0.74% ).
Does this mean they are lending shares to shorters?
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exch ... 77997.html

[Arborbridge]

Black Rock shorting of GNK dropped a tiny amount, but the total shorting has steadily increased to over 10%,

Not nice, but shorting was higher (over 13%) in 2015 - though I can't remember any particular drama then.


Arb.

[monabri]

We've had quite a bit of bad weather and I wouldn't be surprised if like for like sales will be affected. Of course, any small reduction in revenue and the shares get dumped...well, that's the way it seems!

[Arborbridge]

We've had quite a bit of bad weather and I wouldn't be surprised if like for like sales will be affected. Of course, any small reduction in revenue and the shares get dumped...well, that's the way it seems!

The bad weather must have started in June 2016, for it's since then that GNK has been in a downtrend.
Technically, the downtrend started just after the country shot itself in the foot. Enough to drive a man to drink, one might have thought but apparently not.


Arb.

[maximan]

Yet another RNS showing Deutsche bank increasing their holding by 1.01% between shares and financial instruments to 9.05%.
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exch ... 80066.html

[bjmarren]

Hi All,

After much thought I decided to sell my holding yesterday. I first bought Greene King last May for 7.40 as part of my new 15 share HYP and the share price has been in a downward trend ever since. Trading statements have been uninspiring to say the least and I finally came to the conclusion that we could well have another negative trading statement before the final results which could well see the SP tank again, perhaps followed by a dividend cut. I seem to remember reading after the last statement that they would maintain the dividend, which seemed prudent at the time but I have lost faith in the company at this moment in time. I've taken a 38% hit on my initial capital, and what happened to my Capita shares earlier in the year also weighed heavily on my mind. I lost 65% of the capital after selling out, after they stopped the dividend after the profit warning, and I feel the same could happen to Greene King, hence my decision. At least I sold out on an up tick of the share price. The problem with selling out, of course, is where to put the funds now, as I'm now 2 shares light of my original 15. City of London's 4.37 dividend yield at close of play on the 26th looks very attractive now, but of course it's probably a bit less as a result of yesterday.

Anyone else out there feeling nervous?

Brendan

[OLTB]

Hi All,

After much thought I decided to sell my holding yesterday. I first bought Greene King last May for 7.40 as part of my new 15 share HYP and the share price has been in a downward trend ever since. Trading statements have been uninspiring to say the least and I finally came to the conclusion that we could well have another negative trading statement before the final results which could well see the SP tank again, perhaps followed by a dividend cut. I seem to remember reading after the last statement that they would maintain the dividend, which seemed prudent at the time but I have lost faith in the company at this moment in time. I've taken a 38% hit on my initial capital, and what happened to my Capita shares earlier in the year also weighed heavily on my mind. I lost 65% of the capital after selling out, after they stopped the dividend after the profit warning, and I feel the same could happen to Greene King, hence my decision. At least I sold out on an up tick of the share price. The problem with selling out, of course, is where to put the funds now, as I'm now 2 shares light of my original 15. City of London's 4.37 dividend yield at close of play on the 26th looks very attractive now, but of course it's probably a bit less as a result of yesterday.

Anyone else out there feeling nervous?

Brendan

Hi Brendan - feeling nervous about GNK share price...slightly. Enough to crystallise a 38% capital loss...no! As part of the HYP it’s share value fall is slightly disappointing but the dividend is still being paid - it may be amended in the future, but it hasn’t yet so it’s inaction from me!

Good luck in wherever your proceeds are reinvested and hope you make up this capital loss soon.

Cheers, OLTB.

[tjh290633]

Brendan, you need to remember that it is the dividends which matter, not the share price. GNK is not the only share which has fallen over the past few months. The market itself is also down some way from its January peak, and it is normal for some shares to fall more than the market, and for some to move in the opposite direction.

If you do what you are proposing, you are unlikely to get back the income flow lost, and recovery may take a long time. If GNK hold to their objective of increasing dividends, you might be better off buying, not selling.

If running an HYP worries you, then you ought to move 100% into ITs.

TJH

[bjmarren]

Hi OLTB,

Thanks for your reply and good wishes.

I'm a relatively new Hyper, as your are, as far as I understand, and I guess I'm still finding out if HYP is actually for me. We'll know better by the time the final year figures comes around I guess.

Cheers!

Brendan

[bjmarren]

Hi TJH,

Many thanks for taking the time to reply, I appreciate it.

I should say that, in general, I agree with everything that you have written. I did not take the decision lightly and I have other shares that are showing more of a paper loss than Green Greene, such as Imperial, but I haven't thought about selling them. It's just that I've lost faith in the company. Its recent trading statements have not been great despite some positive comments about cost savings to cover revenue losses but it's their like for like sales that are under pressure and I don't believe that they will have improved since the Christmas period. I would expect them to produce an up to date trading statement before their final results and if there has been a drop in their like for like sales, then the share price will take another nose dive and this could be followed by a dividend cut. Of course, none of this my happen and I'll have egg on my face but I'm a big boy and can take the flack.

My HYP is less than 18 months old and I'm still finding out if it's really for me as well as finding out about myself as an investor. Looking back, I realise that my HYP picks were more mechanical than they should have been and whereas I missed the likes of Carillion and Financial Provident, I got hit by Capita. I am never likely to be a Doris and don't believe in SI. I'll give myself until the end of this year and then take stock of things again.

Your mention of perhaps moving into ITs struck a chord, as I've already bought a chunk of HFEL and MYI to sit alongside my HYP shares. I'll continue to put money into both the HYP and ITs as and when I can. Thinking about where to put the proceeds of Greene King is now occupying my thoughts. Topping up Imperial is tempting, despite being a 'proxy bond'. I'm not sure the letter 'r' is needed in the word proxy!

Anyway, irrespective of the outcome, as soon as I hit the Sell button yesterday I felt a huge relief.

All the very best.

Brendan

[Dod101]

as soon as I hit the Sell button yesterday I felt a huge relief.

You must of course do what you feel best but at the same time, try to avoid buying high and selling low; that way lies disaster. I have never held Greene King nor quite a lot of the other popular 'usual suspects' although I do hold Imperial Brands.

Dod

[bjmarren]

Hi Dod,

Thank you for your post and I of course agree with your words, it wasn't a decision that I took likely. I am sure most, if not all Hypers, have learnt expensive lessons along the way in in their investing experience. At the moment I don't regret taking the action that I did, but of course I'm sitting on a loss, and I may come to regret this but I'll take it all on board and if it helps to shape my investing decisions in a more positive way in the future, then the experience, expensive or not will hopefully have been profitable. Well, that's the theory!

Is there any particular reason why you've never owned Greene King?

Best wishes,

Brendan

[Dod101]

Brendan
You are absolutely right that we have all made mistakes and continue to do so, so I am neither criticising nor trying to be clever. Do not look back nor have any regrets about your decision, just move on. When I sell I never take a look at what might have been. Again that way lies negativity and you want to find success not to brood on mistakes (if indeed that is what you past decision turns out to be)

As for Greene King I know little about it and all I can say is that it has never been on my radar. I only have about 18/20 HYP shares at any one time; most I have held for a long time. In fact one you may like to look at is about to release its results, Chesnara, a zombie insurer. I will be interested to see how it is doing.

Dod

[idpickering]

Brendan
Chesnara, a zombie insurer. I will be interested to see how it is doing.

Dod

And here it is;

Chesnara PLC Final Results

Record divisional cash pays dividends

During 2017 we have delivered against each of our core strategic objectives thanks to economic tailwinds, good operational delivery and a number of one-off items including the successful completion of the acquisition of Legal & General Nederland.

And later;

FULL YEAR DIVIDEND INCREASE

Total dividends for the year increased by 2.98% to 20.07p per share (7.00p interim and 13.07p proposed final). This compares with 19.49p in 2016 (6.80p interim and 12.69p final).

https://www.investegate.co.uk/chesnara- ... 00073259J/

[Dod101]

Thanks Ian. No fireworks then, more a steady as she goes. Note also that although this company is generally known a s a zombie insurer, it is much less zombie than it used to be with two or three active life insurers on the European Continent.

Sorry this is OT for a Greene King thread.

Dod

[idpickering]

Thanks Ian. No fireworks then, more a steady as she goes. Note also that although this company is generally known a s a zombie insurer, it is much less zombie than it used to be with two or three active life insurers on the European Continent.

Sorry this is OT for a Greene King thread.

Dod

You're welcome Dod.

Mods, may I ask that my post regarding these results be allowed to stay, as it does follow on from the mention of this company.

Ian.

[bjmarren]

Hi Dod,

I didn't take you to be trying to be either critical or clever, I appreciate you taking the time to give your well judged views. Thanks for the nudge in the direction of Chesnara. I know you're a fan from previous posts, along with the likes of Admiral and Phoenix if I remember correctly. I won't comment further otherwise we'll be well and truely off topic.

Cheers!

Brendan

[maximan]

Questor: Solid foundations mean it’s too soon to call time on pub firm Greene King

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... rm-greene/

[Arborbridge]

As regards Green King, I can only comment that I've seen big ups and downs in the price but it has never occurred to me to sell the shares. I've owned them since the '90s and have never been out of them, but have added more from time to time.

I note tht the share price has been falling for a long time now - two years - and that is certainly worrying even to a long term holder. I can understand someone selling: I may be utterly wrong, but I do not feel inclined to sell, if only because we have seen similar long falling periods in the past, as well as some big ones.

As TJH commented, many shares have fallen out of favour, in particular HYP shares. The only questions are: which ones will recover, and which won't?


Arb.