My HYP as of now.

[Breelander]

...I may have been jestin' (thus the smiley)...

Me too (if you scrolled far enough)

...but I was interested in the yields.

Ian's spreadsheet may not be set up to provide the forward yields you mentioned, but I'd guess trailing yield by sector may be easier. Either way, a breakdown of yield by sector would be interesting....

....actually, I don't calculate that in my spreadsheet either - perhaps I should.

[YeeWo]

importantly, prices in places like africa can be as low as 50p a packet. smokers in the UK pay £10. as wages converge over many decades, there will be significant scope for price increases on those who are addicted.

- Last month in Doha I bought, for a colleague, 600 JPS for QAR102 = GBP20.55 Duty Free at the airport. (68p for a pack of twenty).
- Cigarette Sticks themselves are produced on such a Vast Automated Scale a fair assumption is Nett per Stick is <1p.
- Price Increases are Excise levied in each specific country, Big Tobacco doesn't see this revenue.
- The Tobacco Industry already has Spectacular Economics in production, rational taxation is the issue.
- In Indonesia for example Tobacco Duty is one of Governments largest sources of revenue.
- BAT has the opportunity of taking vast costs out with the acquisition of Reynolds.
- Imperial Brands has a fantastic niche in Habanos cigars.
- It's a consolidating industry, explosively good underlying economics though.......

[Gengulphus]

Here is the information from the table in Ian's OP in an alternative, hopefully clearer form. I've added the Household Goods sector, to fix its omission (as noted by Ian in a later post), and the assignment of shares to sectors is guesswork on my part - pretty obvious guesswork for the vast majority of shares, but I might not have got it exactly as Ian intended in one or two cases.


Gengulphus

[Gengulphus]

And ignore otherwise. I mean what could possibly go wrong?
End up with a portfolio full of Kodaks, Enrons, RBSs and Carillions? No ta!

Rather keep an eye on things (capital values compared with FTSE All Share) and adjust as necessary thereby preserving capital.

Not a practical suggestion as stated - but you probably mean:

Rather keep an eye on things (capital values compared with FTSE All Share) and adjust as you think necessary thereby preserving capital.

With those added two words, it becomes a practical suggestion - but also with those added two words, your question "what could possibly go wrong?" becomes relevant to the suggestion as well as to the original situation...

Gengulphus

[idpickering]

Here is the information from the table in Ian's OP in an alternative, hopefully clearer form. I've added the Household Goods sector, to fix its omission (as noted by Ian in a later post), and the assignment of shares to sectors is guesswork on my part - pretty obvious guesswork for the vast majority of shares, but I might not have got it exactly as Ian intended in one or two cases.


Gengulphus

Thank you very much Gengulphus. You are more skilled at this than I. As for share values, in pharmaceutical for example, the two are roughly equal value, GSK and AZN. Ditto in oil between RDSB and BP. Etc.

Ian.

[Itsallaguess]

The far right hand side could have been for forward yield but the lack of space seems to have stopped this from being posted.

Here's the Forecast Yield / Cover / PE data taken from Digital Look.

Seems like a nice looking HYP Ian.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[kempiejon]

Adding a little more data an equally weighted portfolio of the above yields a forecast 5.6%

[PinkDalek]

The far right hand side could have been for forward yield but the lack of space seems to have stopped this from being posted.

Here's the Forecast Yield / Cover / PE data taken from Digital Look. ...

I thought someone would take up the (unwritten) challenge and I'm sure Ian will appreciate your efforts when he sees the tables.

PD
Smiley reinstated!

[idpickering]

Thank you for all your help and input guys. At 32 holdings I have no desire to add even more. It was the new £20k ISA dollop last week that caused me to go up from 28 to 32 holdings as I didn't want to over expose myself to the 28 holdings, although some of the money was used to top up a few of those 28. I'm picking up the good vibes I'm getting from you guys here about my HYP, which is very reassuring. Thank you.

Ian.

[Hypster]

Thanks for sharing Ian, and thanks to Gengulphus and Itsallaguess for tabulating the information. You've given me a few ideas for my watch list.

[idpickering]

Thanks for sharing Ian, and thanks to Gengulphus and Itsallaguess for tabulating the information. You've given me a few ideas for my watch list.

You're welcome Hypster. IMHO, I think we're all here to discuss, pick up ideas, and learn from each other. I'm not looking at adding any more newbies to my HYP currently. 32 is enough, some would say to many already.

Ian.

[Arborbridge]

Then the non-burning e-cig thing will replace tobacco. Can't see it happening. People who smoke use those to quit. Can't see non-smokers starting using them. Just not going to happen.


I don't know where the evidence is for quitting by continuing to use e-cigs. I thought the point about nocotine was that it was addictive, and if so there doesn't seem much chance of quitting by this means. Indeed, I would have thought it's a way to continue enjoying the drug in a more healthy form. I guess the essential tipping point will occur when people decide that the vaping activity is "cool" or rather silly.

Arb.

[Breelander]

I don't know where the evidence is for quitting by continuing to use e-cigs.

The British Medical Journal, 17 January 2018...

In England, over 40% of people who try to stop smoking do so with the aid of e-cigarettes. About 52% of current e-cigarettes users are former smokers. Some people who stop smoking with an e-cigarette are still using e-cigarettes a year later.

https://www.bmj.com/content/360/bmj.j5543

[Arborbridge]

I don't know where the evidence is for quitting by continuing to use e-cigs.

The British Medical Journal, 17 January 2018...

In England, over 40% of people who try to stop smoking do so with the aid of e-cigarettes. About 52% of current e-cigarettes users are former smokers. Some people who stop smoking with an e-cigarette are still using e-cigarettes a year later.

https://www.bmj.com/content/360/bmj.j5543

That begs a few questions, and I guess the answers are in the text we can't read without registering! On the face of it, from that introduction, it doesn't sound a disaster for e-cigs.

Arb.