Never Sell Shell

[IanTHughes]

I agree wholeheartedly. I would be surprised if many " regulars" on the HYP board disagree ( if " SI rules ok", why pay so much attention to the board and other Lemons comments?).

I don’t - pay much attention to what is posted here that is. The majority of posters on this board know very little about HYP and even less about Equity Investing. I include myself in that number by the way. There are however some gems from the few on here who really do seem to have something to offer for HYP. They are worth the price of admission.


Ian

[OhNoNotimAgain]

Institutional investors cannot have more than 10% of their portfolio in one stock so they are all underweight Shell. This is one of the few times PIs can get an edge over professional managers by going overweight stocks that they can't.

[Dod101]

Just remember that the S stands for Strategic. SI does not mean put your head in the sand when it all goes pear shaped.

It just means taking no notice of journalistic hype or posts like those emanating from TMF. Reading company reports and RNS posts is not SI.

With respect I do not think that is in the least what pyad said/mean. he absolutely put his head in the sand when for example RBS went pear shaped. He was quoted somewhere as saying 'Do nothing!' I would not disagree with your interpretation and that is just common sense.

Sorry here we go another of those arguments about what was meant but I am confident that what pyad said was that as a strategy do nothing and wilfully remain ignorant because no one can foretell the future. I remember being quite shocked when he said of RBS when it was in deepest trouble do nothing!

Some disciple will no doubt be along with chapter and verse.

Dod

[Dod101]

On the contrary, Strategic Ignorance (SI) is simply a refusal to take notice of long-term forecasts and opinions, which in any case are often contradictory and mostly based on guesswork or acceptance of assumptions. Following SI frees ones intellectual investigation to focus more keenly on those things one can analyze – annual results and the like.

Maybe your definition of SI is different or perhaps you can make successful long-term forecasts. I cannot.

See my response to TJH

Dod

[IanTHughes]

Sorry here we go another of those arguments about what was meant but I am confident that what pyad said was that as a strategy do nothing and wilfully remain ignorant because no one can foretell the future.

What he actually said was:

“Which brings me to the Strategic Ignorance rule. I devised this term to mean that HYPers should give no thought to the long term future of the economy, a sector or an individual share and should avoid structuring their portfolios in accordance with any such views, whether their own or that of “experts” etc. Better to be declare yourself ignorant of the long term and use this in your strategy, than think you have the remotest idea of how the long term future may pan out.”

https://www.stockopedia.com/content/int ... lio-78349/

Of course, for those out there that can foretell the future, SI would be silly.

Ian

[vrdiver]

Of course, for those out there that can foretell the future, SI would be silly.

Ian

I knew you were going to say that, but it still made me smile

VRD

[moorfield]

Those who chose to apply some Strategic Ignorance to their Shell holdings in 2016, topped up, and trusted the directors to crack on doing what they do, must be smiling today - I am certainly , and have no intention of selling anytime soon.

[jackdaww]

Of course, for those out there that can foretell the future, SI would be silly.

Ian

VRD

======================

but there are some on here who CAN foretell the future !

despite recent very serious and permanent setbacks on their HYP investments - they say - it will be all ok in the long run .....

[Raptor]

Moderator Message:
This thread has "morphed" into something that is more appropriate to HYP Strategies. Can we keep to Shell and OPs post. Thanks. Raptor.

[idpickering]

Those who chose to apply some Strategic Ignorance to their Shell holdings in 2016, topped up, and trusted the directors to crack on doing what they do, must be smiling today - I am certainly , and have no intention of selling anytime soon.

I am one who doubled my holdings in Shell RDSB at that time. I still hold them all to date.

Ian.

[Breelander]

For me, SI means not letting day-to-day noise or rumour/fear-mongering influence decisions - it does not mean ignoring fundamentals.

On that basis I took the opportunity to top up my RDSB in 2008 when fear had knocked them down to 1249p. I do not have any intention of selling.

[MDW1954]

For me, SI means not letting day-to-day noise or rumour/fear-mongering influence decisions - it does not mean ignoring fundamentals.

On that basis I took the opportunity to top up my RDSB in 2008 when fear had knocked them down to 1249p. I do not have any intention of selling.

For me, SI meant that I was happy to significantly top up Shell at 1295p, eight years later in early 2016.

There were plenty of doomsayers exiting the oilies then, just as there are plenty of people dissing retailers, REITs, and utilities now.

Sometimes, they are right. But not always.

MDW1954

[Dod101]

Shell is coming back nicely as some might say. Certainly it is now below my selling price earlier this month, having been the subject of some irrational exuberance since. We'll see.

Dod

[grimer]

For me, SI meant that I was happy to significantly top up Shell at 1295p, eight years later in early 2016.

There were plenty of doomsayers exiting the oilies then, just as there are plenty of people dissing retailers, REITs, and utilities now.

MDW1954

Shell pump money out of the ground. M&S sell poorly fitting shoes with no size conformity across their range or even within a specific style. I'd avoid high street retailers for at least the next five years.

[Alaric]

Shell pump money out of the ground.

Isn't there a subtle modification of that? Shell and other oil companies pump stuff out of the ground at a cost of 75 per unit of measurement. Provided they can sell it at 80 per unit or above they are always profitable.

[idpickering]

For me, SI meant that I was happy to significantly top up Shell at 1295p, eight years later in early 2016.

There were plenty of doomsayers exiting the oilies then, just as there are plenty of people dissing retailers, REITs, and utilities now.

MDW1954

Shell pump money out of the ground. M&S sell poorly fitting shoes with no size conformity across their range or even within a specific style. I'd avoid high street retailers for at least the next five years.

With respect grimer, why 5 years? Does your crystal ball only see that far? I am relaxed in the realisation that I cannot tell the future, and just go with the flow, happy that I'm hopefully shielded from to much grief due to the diversification of my HYP. To get back OT though, I have no intention of selling my Shell RDSB shares. Why would I?

Ian.

[monabri]

Shell is coming back nicely as some might say. Certainly it is now below my selling price earlier this month, having been the subject of some irrational exuberance since. We'll see.
Dod

Seems you might have made a good call (partial sale of 'frothy' RDSB), Dod.

" 28 May 2018 13:42 ]
WASHINGTON (Alliance News) - Canadian stocks may come under pressure Monday as crude oil prices continue to plummet on renewed expectations that OPEC will ramp up production."

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exch ... 39300.html


Of course, we will see tomorrow when the UK market opens.

[Dod101]

Probably sold too early but as I keep saying we cannot time the market. Shell was a always around £24/25 max even with oil at about $100 so it seemed to me that anything over £27 was 'way over the top or irrational exuberism. As you say we will see. I will give no hostage to fortune so will not name a buying price.

Dod

[grimer]

With respect grimer, why 5 years? Does your crystal ball only see that far?

I can't see anything positive about high street retail. I don't think that is likely to improve within the next five years.

I remember when people were chomping at the bit to buy Carillion shares based upon the yield...

Perhaps wait for results on the 1st March? I can't see the price jumping by a crazy amount, if the results are good - e.g. more than 10%. If the results are bad, though, they could take a nasty dip.

I'd prefer to take 7% with some visibility of events, than 8% now and a potential capital loss. If the results are bad, you might be able to buy in with a yield of 10%+. As our American cousins are fond of saying - 'You do the math'

[idpickering]

With respect grimer, why 5 years? Does your crystal ball only see that far?

I can't see anything positive about high street retail. I don't think that is likely to improve within the next five years.

I remember when people were chomping at the bit to buy Carillion shares based upon the yield...

Perhaps wait for results on the 1st March? I can't see the price jumping by a crazy amount, if the results are good - e.g. more than 10%. If the results are bad, though, they could take a nasty dip.

I'd prefer to take 7% with some visibility of events, than 8% now and a potential capital loss. If the results are bad, you might be able to buy in with a yield of 10%+. As our American cousins are fond of saying - 'You do the math'

Thanks for coming back on this grimer. I do get where you're coming from. I only hold Sainsbury's in the overall sector because I think they're the best one available, and people have to buy food somewhere. Much like the fact that smokers have to buy their chosen fix. I have no intention of selling my holdings in SBRY, and they form 3% of my HYP in capital value terms, nor am I selling my Shell holdings either, to get back on the topic of Shell.

Ian.