Brent Crude goes through $80 a barrel

[IanTHughes]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3357614-b ... ember-2014

Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) at 2,785.00p - up 1.40% today
BP (BP) at 581p - up 0.85% today

Maybe the idea of a dividend increase this year is not so fanciful after all.

Two excellent HYP stalwarts in my opinion



Ian

[moorfield]

The important number is roughly $60, that's the price at which Shell expects to deliver upwards of $25 billion free cashflow by 2020, see:

https://www.shell.com/investors/financi ... script.pdf

Anything above that is a bonus and (like Mike Coupe, I wonder if he is a shareholder) we should expect to be in the money and the sky to be sunny.

[idpickering]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3357614-brent-crude-hits-80-highest-since-november-2014

Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) at 2,785.00p - up 1.40% today
BP (BP) at 581p - up 0.85% today

Maybe the idea of a dividend increase this year is not so fanciful after all.

Two excellent HYP stalwarts in my opinion



Ian

Here's hoping Ian. I hold both these pair, with a leaning towards Shell RDSB in capital value terms. I topped up BP last month, so that'll do for me with oilies for now.

Ian.

[JMN2]

I am laughing all the way to the bank. PFC, RDSB both ticking up on my buy price, with dividends to come...

I am getting worried, punctured £40k on its way to the skies, my largest holding, all spring I have been thinking there is nothing to top up or buy, bitcoin cash + cash from the sale of utilities waiting for something to buy but I am quite lost. Perhaps I'll allocate some more to my IT portfolio pro rata. Seems toppy but who knows.

[Lootman]

I am laughing all the way to the bank. PFC, RDSB both ticking up on my buy price, with dividends to come...

I am getting worried, punctured £40k on its way to the skies, my largest holding, all spring I have been thinking there is nothing to top up or buy, bitcoin cash + cash from the sale of utilities waiting for something to buy but I am quite lost. Perhaps I'll allocate some more to my IT portfolio pro rata. Seems toppy but who knows.

Forget the European stodgy oil majors. Have you seen what the US E&P names are doing? Up 50% in just a few weeks.

Holy freaking fracking, Batman.

[TheDove]

Personally I'm laughing slightly less after PFC's 5% fall today, recovering from -10% at one point. The Boys in Braces seem to put it down to pre-AGM jitters/profit-taking. Those I can live with.

Dove

[JMN2]

I am laughing all the way to the bank. PFC, RDSB both ticking up on my buy price, with dividends to come...

I am getting worried, punctured £40k on its way to the skies, my largest holding, all spring I have been thinking there is nothing to top up or buy, bitcoin cash + cash from the sale of utilities waiting for something to buy but I am quite lost. Perhaps I'll allocate some more to my IT portfolio pro rata. Seems toppy but who knows.

Forget the European stodgy oil majors. Have you seen what the US E&P names are doing? Up 50% in just a few weeks.

Holly freaking fracking, Batman.

the thing is I don't really follow markets at all anymore, I don't have a clue. I could still roll the CDS's or repo the bonds or roll the FX - technically/mechanically - bonds especially - I always liked bonds.

[Dod101]

I do not think that Shell will increase their dividends. More likely they will start the share buyback programme they said they would do at the time of the BG takeover. (They issued a lot of new shares for the takeover) Good news though because the fewer shares in issue the fewer shares that need a dividend.

Dod

[YeeWo]

I do not think that Shell will increase their dividends. More likely they will start the share buyback programme they said they would do at the time of the BG takeover. (They issued a lot of new shares for the takeover) Good news though because the fewer shares in issue the fewer shares that need a dividend. Dod

BP 6.3% of portfolio (XIRR 18.83%), RDSB 8.3% (XIRR 38.59% ) so I have a fair bit of skin in this subject. In September 2015 I invested 18% of my portfolio in BG shares, knowing the RDSB arbitrage was coming. I then subsequently sold half the RDSB shares received on 23 Aug 16 @ £19.66 to pull things back into proportion and release cash for other stocks. Since then I've enjoyed masterly inactivity with RDSB and watched the lovely dividends roll in.

The Key Question : At what price does RDSB become sufficiently "toppy" to be top-sliced? If ever?(!)........

[moorfield]

The Key Question : At what price does RDSB become sufficiently "toppy" to be top-sliced? If ever?(!)........

I'd put that at roughly £36 and higher, at which point it would likely yield somewhere at/below the FTSE 100 average, unless all boats are rising on the same tide of course.

[melonfool]

Moderator Message:
Please remember that HYP Practical is about yield and dividends. If you wish to discuss capital increases or the price of oil there are other boards for that. Mel

[Gengulphus]

The Key Question : At what price does RDSB become sufficiently "toppy" to be top-sliced? If ever?(!)........

When it becomes too overweight for comfort in your HYP.

When it might do that depends on what percentage it formed of your HYP before it started rising and your 'comfort limit' - i.e. how high a percentage it would have to become before you felt it that the percentage had become too big for comfort. Your comfort limit will almost certainly depend on a number of aspects of your financial circumstances, such as to what extent your HYP provides you with essential income - clearly someone who is relying on their HYP to provide most of their living expenses is in a very different position to someone who has them covered by state and occupational pensions and whose HYP merely provides the 'icing on the cake', and someone who is still in paid employment is and building up their HYP by with savings from their salary is in a different position again.

And you might prefer to judge the percentages by capital value, by dividend income or by both - and if both, you might have different comfort limits for each of them.

My main point is that all of that is heavily dependent on your HYP, financial circumstances and preferences. I have a rough answer - I would top-slice somewhere in the £40-£50 range if my other holdings remained at roughly their current level (or adjust that up or down if my other holdings rose or fell substantially). But that answer is worked out from my HYP, financial circumstances and preferences, and since there's no reason to believe yours are similar, there's also no reason to believe my rough answer is sensible for you.

So basically, I don't believe I can give any more useful answer to your question than "That's for each HYPer to work out for themselves, based on their own HYP, financial circumstances and preferences. So don't believe anyone else's answer applies to you!".

Gengulphus

[Dod101]

[
The Key Question : At what price does RDSB become sufficiently "toppy" to be top-sliced? If ever?(!)........

Well I top sliced at £27 because even with oil at over $100 it never really got beyond the £24/26 level although the dividend yield was probably a bit lower in these days. It was getting too big a proportion of my HYP so I sold some then. I think it is toppy now although who knows. When I sold I said I would be happy if it keeps rising but equally happy if it falls back to allow me to buy more. The jury is still out.

Meanwhile and in deference to the Mods I am simply happy that the dividend keeps rolling in. That is what I am most interested in.

Dod