New HYP shares

[CryptoPlankton]

I have CNA, Ian, and like you I'm a bit wary. It's refreshing to have a more positive view from someone - in this case Miner - and perhaps one day I will give way to the fact the it regularly comes top of my list and buy more.
Maybe I should have the courage to do so.

With two cuts, two further holds and the dividend barely HALF covered at present (not to mention that political risk), is brave really the word you're looking for?

How things change - a few years back Centrica was one of the private investor's favourite shares and was almost a "must" for inclusion in any income portfolio.

Arb.

If Doris had bought 15 years ago, it would still be doing a job for her as a part of a HYP - rubbish capital performance, but the dividend compound growth rate over that period is nearly 8%. I still have a shrivelled holding producing more income than when I bought it, but things need to improve enormously before I consider a top up. I leave speculation to other areas of investment...

[Breelander]

If Doris had bought 15 years ago...
... I still have a shrivelled holding producing more income than when I bought it, but things need to improve enormously before I consider a top up. I leave speculation to other areas of investment...

This 'Doris' bought seven years ago. My 'shrivelled holding' has returned 34% of my investment as dividends so far...

Not my best 'jewel in the crown', but by no means my worst. (CF Carillion)

[Arborbridge]

With two cuts, two further holds and the dividend barely HALF covered at present (not to mention that political risk), is brave really the word you're looking for?

Yes, probably - Or foolish. It's been a rubbish investment, and as one of my undoubted "losers" hardly deserves more good money after bad. Unfortunately, I've also made the same reasoning in other cases only to find the shares come back again and I should have topped up

Performance (lack of) to date since purchase in 2009: XIRR -5.43%. Dividends have paid back about a fifth of my investment and my capital is 43% down.

Yep, not one of my winners!

Arb.

[tjh290633]

How things change - a few years back Centrica was one of the private investor's favourite shares and was almost a "must" for inclusion in any income portfolio.

Arb.

I bet that was because Sid hung on to them when his privatisation issue of BG. spun them off.

TJH

[Deev8]

I had noticed that share recently myself, but I’m wary of such outfits after the dot com boom and bust. Is the risk worth it? I’m not so sure so shall not be adding this to my HYP.Ian.

The dot com boom and bust was something like 18 years ago Ian. I personally believe that technology businesses, which were the "latest thing" back then are mainstream now. That doesn't mean that Microfocus is a great HYP candidate, though I do hold the shares myself, just that they shouldn't be automatically rejected as a candidate.

Dave

[idpickering]

I had noticed that share recently myself, but I’m wary of such outfits after the dot com boom and bust. Is the risk worth it? I’m not so sure so shall not be adding this to my HYP.Ian.

The dot com boom and bust was something like 18 years ago Ian. I personally believe that technology businesses, which were the "latest thing" back then are mainstream now. That doesn't mean that Microfocus is a great HYP candidate, though I do hold the shares myself, just that they shouldn't be automatically rejected as a candidate.

Dave

That is a fair point Dave, which I fully understand, but still not one for me thanks.

Ian.

[tieresias]

{Pets at Home (PETS) are} also the 2nd most shorted share on the market, after Carillion, so maybe not for the faint of heart!

PETS are currently No.1. Does anyone understand why Carillion is still on this list? Do they somehow still exist and can fall further in value?
https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

[SlickMongoose]

{Pets at Home (PETS) are} also the 2nd most shorted share on the market, after Carillion, so maybe not for the faint of heart!

PETS are currently No.1. Does anyone understand why Carillion is still on this list? Do they somehow still exist and can fall further in value?
https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

Good point - I guess Carillion still exists for now as an entity, even if their shares are no longer traded.

[PinkDalek]

{Pets at Home (PETS) are} also the 2nd most shorted share on the market, after Carillion, so maybe not for the faint of heart!

PETS are currently No.1. Does anyone understand why Carillion is still on this list? Do they somehow still exist and can fall further in value?
https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

Looks like an historical listing of Disclosed positions. The date changes may be found here https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0007365546/ and the most recent one is dated 12 Jan 2018, a few days before the "Temporary" suspension of listing.

[Arborbridge]

Moderator Message:
referenced quote deleted on posters request

But you also need to decide how much weight to give to the shorting as a decision making tool. In my view, it is far from reliable - shorters come and go. High shorting does not spell the end of a company - as one can see if you look back through past numbers.

I have a sneaking feeling it's just one more thing to worry about and over-analyse.

(Despite that - I look at the same site occasionally )

[idpickering]

I have a sneaking feeling it's just one more thing to worry about and over-analyse.

(Despite that - I look at the same site occasionally )

Well said once more Arb. I’m of a same mind as yourself it seems.

Ian

[Wizard]

I would guess that info on shorting was probably not as readily accessible at the time of the initial HYP articles, if it had been I wonder if it would have been seen as useful metric or not. Personally I do think it is a useful addition to screening for shares and having suffered by investing in Carillion I don't feel I would sleep well at night if I put my head in the sand and ignored it completely.

Terry.

[monabri]

Moderator Message:
referenced quote deleted on posters request

Just need to be aware that the disclosure is only visible on the F.C.A. website (and hence short tracker) when the short level for each shorter (eg Blackrock) has increased their shorting position to over 0.5%.

It might be that there are many others lurking below the 0.5% (at 0.49%).......ready to bite .

[Arborbridge]

Some managers are shorting all the time to make a fast buck or cover a position: it isn't necessarily a forwarning of disaster. Indeed, since investors lend their shares to make a fee from shorters, I assume those investors are fairly confident that the company is a safe bet - otherwise, wouldn't they just sell up and move on?

Arb.

[TUK020]

Some managers are shorting all the time to make a fast buck or cover a position: it isn't necessarily a forwarning of disaster. Indeed, since investors lend their shares to make a fee from shorters, I assume those investors are fairly confident that the company is a safe bet - otherwise, wouldn't they just sell up and move on?

Arb.

The people who lend shares are not necessarily the beneficial owners of those shares. How do you think e.g. Hargreaves Landsdowne make money?
They loan your shares that they are holding in trust for you, and earning a fee. OK, so they probably have to have some insurance against counter-party risk, but otherwise it's free money

[SlickMongoose]

Games Workshop has recently dipped into what I think counts as HYP range (currently a 4.6% yield). It's certainly something different from the usual shares discussed here, anyway.

+ Quarterly dividend (well I consider this a plus anyway!).
+ Very strong balance sheet with no debt.
+ Unique products and a fanatically loyal customer base.
+ High margins and high ROCE make them highly cash generative.
+ Growing (interim trading update in Dec stated revenue up 14% and operating profit up 6%).

- Lack the long history of growing dividends of a great HYP share - They've had a couple of years of incredibly strong performance recently but before that they were stagnant for a long time.
- Dividend policy is "to return all truly surplus cash to shareholders", so no management commitment to progressive (or even stable) dividends.
- Some concern over whether the current level of trading is likely to continue or whether it's temporary. Personally I think the rise of social media, gaming and "nerd culture" has given them an enormous boost.

[Alaric]

Dunelm was mentioned some while back. At the time it rather looked as if what you might gain with dividends, you would lose with the share price. Since the new year, the cost of buying the dividend stream has increased markedly. In other words the price performance has been good.