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income progress

For discussion of the practicalities of setting up and operating income-portfolios which follow the HYP Group Guidelines. READ Guidelines before posting
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Arborbridge
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income progress

#161452

Postby Arborbridge » August 23rd, 2018, 11:27 am

We're two thirds of the way through the year and I'm taking a look at how my income is shaping up.
Below is a chart showing HYP income per unit through this year - in pink - in comparison with 2017 - in grey.
The final pink point shown (August this year) is a bit of an assumption that there a no more dividends to come by the month end - which is why the last two points are identical. The 2018 line weaves above and below the 2017 line due to portfolio and pay date changes.

Image


Dividends per unit look not far off identical for the two years, showing that not much progress has been made, though in fact the difference in the last points still amounts to marginally above RPI increase at 3.6%.

My actual income received is significantly higher than 2017 due to re-investment so all in all, progress seems on the right side.

Arb.

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Re: income progress

#161457

Postby Darka » August 23rd, 2018, 11:55 am

Thanks for sharing Arb,

My dividends have just exceeded what I received up to this point in time last year, so should be on for an increase myself this year.

I also reinvest (and add additional funds) and it's nice to see the yearly dividend increase - long may it continue...

regards,
Darka

Arborbridge
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Re: income progress

#161463

Postby Arborbridge » August 23rd, 2018, 12:22 pm

Darka wrote:Thanks for sharing Arb,


I also reinvest (and add additional funds) and it's nice to see the yearly dividend increase - long may it continue...

regards,
Darka


Bravo!

As a matter of interest, my received income for Q1+Q2 exceeds what I had expected to receive by approximately 13%. "What I expected to receive" was based on broker forecasts based on my holdings at December 2017. Since then, some dividends have been higher than forecast, some lower, some shares have been sold and more capital has been invested too: frankly, I'm not concerned to weed out these counterbalancing effects (as I once used to!). The income per unit comparison gives me much of what I need to know with respect to whether my investments are succeeding or not.

Arb.

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Re: income progress

#161472

Postby pendas » August 23rd, 2018, 12:48 pm

My dividend income is down on the same period last year by around 5% and this despite dividends being reinvested and the start of year capital being 8% higher than that of the previous year.


Total return for both periods has been negative.

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Re: income progress

#161482

Postby daveh » August 23rd, 2018, 1:31 pm

I've not been adding new money this year and I have some cash from a top slice and dividends still to reinvest - I'm trying to get my unsheltered dividend income below £2000 so some money may stay in cash or might get invested in a value based ETF until next tax year when it can go into my ISA. Even with that declared dividends are now at ~ the same as the total received for the whole of last calendar year. I expect with the dividends still to be declared for this year I should be up about 8-10% on last year. Not bad, but not as good as usual, but not unexpected due to the lack of new money going into my HYP.

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Re: income progress

#161526

Postby tjh290633 » August 23rd, 2018, 4:45 pm

I have six more dividends to be announced for this calendar year, Kingfisher, Tesco, Imperial Brands, Unilever, BP and Shell. I have disposed of Carillion (by force majeure) and Indivior, the cash realised being withdrawn.

At this stage I am substantially ahead in terms of dividends declared to be paid in 2018, but overall 6% short of last year's total. Marginally lower in the first 6 months, due to Carillion having gone, and fewer special dividends this year, notably from National Grid and Compass. Taking account of those I am actually ahead of last year with those six yet to come.

Naturally some income has been reinvested.

TJH

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Re: income progress

#161549

Postby monabri » August 23rd, 2018, 6:06 pm

I trawled through "dividend data" to establish which companies have been increasing their dividends over the years.

The question is - does one top up (or even add to the HYP) based on "past performance" and with the hope that the dividend growth will continue ?

Should we be topping up/adding the likes of ITV, Micro Focus, SDRC (the non voting form - the table below gives the yield for SDR -the voting version), WPP & LGEN in preference to adding more of the likes of HSBA/GSK?

Some of the 'candidates' with the higher dividend growths in the table already feature in many HYPs - these are the ones that are driving the annual increase in dividends - the likes of HSBA/GSK, whilst stalwart and reliable, are "stationary".


(all data sourced from "dividend data"
The table shows the current yield (%) and the compounded annual growth rate (%) in dividends over 5,10 and 15 years.



If we want increasing dividends, it seems that some of the big boys are not delivering dividend growth (nor have done over the last n years).

edit: I realised that I'd confined this to mainly FTSE100..I should revisit it but start looking further down the tree!

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Re: income progress

#161588

Postby moorfield » August 23rd, 2018, 8:05 pm

For the last seven years I've been measuring overall income(*) progress against a fixed target, +7.2% pa, and have so far met that every year, riding the Centrica dividend cut in 2015, and the Carillion collapse last year. I also use that to extrapolate overall income out to 2031, my early retirement target, from which I can guesstimate an inflation adjusted present value. Income progress is also a primary tinkering indicator ie. if the plan is failing then tinkering and restructuring is needed, but that hasn't happened yet.



(*) the combination of dividend increases or cuts, and reinvestment

Arborbridge
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Re: income progress

#161626

Postby Arborbridge » August 23rd, 2018, 10:43 pm

moorfield wrote:For the last seven years I've been measuring overall income(*) progress against a fixed target, +7.2% pa, and have so far met that every year, riding the Centrica dividend cut in 2015, and the Carillion collapse last year. I also use that to extrapolate overall income out to 2031, my early retirement target, from which I can guesstimate an inflation adjusted present value. Income progress is also a primary tinkering indicator ie. if the plan is failing then tinkering and restructuring is needed, but that hasn't happened yet.



(*) the combination of dividend increases or cuts, and reinvestment


Yes, my income has been increasing at a good rate also, but I like to keep a check on the price per unit in addition because this gives me some idea of the "efficiency" of the investment - the bang for the buck - so to speak. If I'm pumping more and more capital in, I need to know the effort is being well rewarded, not that the income is increasing simply due to extra capital.
Like you, I was pleased how changes such as Carillion have been absorbed by the HYP - almost a non-event as regards income. Though the outcome would have been much better if CLLN hadn't imploded! This shows once again that the portfolio system works well.

Breelander
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Re: income progress

#161633

Postby Breelander » August 23rd, 2018, 11:13 pm

I unitised my HYP in December 2011. The trailing twelve month income per unit has grown considerably since then (the red line). Back to reality and adjusting for RPI inflation (the green line) it has still grown. Apart from selling Carillion days before it was delisted, the last actual trade was in mid-2015 when I sold First Group on the grounds I no longer regarded it as suitable for an HYP and topped up RDSB and GSK with the proceeds. Not bad performance for leaving it pretty much to it's own devices these past three years...


Image

Arborbridge
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Re: income progress

#161661

Postby Arborbridge » August 24th, 2018, 6:53 am

Breelander wrote:I unitised my HYP in December 2011. The trailing twelve month income per unit has grown considerably since then (the red line). Back to reality and adjusting for RPI inflation (the green line) it has still grown. Apart from selling Carillion days before it was delisted, the last actual trade was in mid-2015 when I sold First Group on the grounds I no longer regarded it as suitable for an HYP and topped up RDSB and GSK with the proceeds. Not bad performance for leaving it pretty much to it's own devices these past three years...


For comparison, I dug out similar figures for my HYP. Trailing 12 months* Dec 2011 = 5.4, trailing 12 months June 2018 = 6.4.
This is significantly flatter line than yours which is more like Dec 2011 = 4.8 and June 2018 6.4 approx - so Bravo to you :)

If you started unitising only in Dec 2011, may I ask how you produced a 12 month trailing income per unit number for the same month?


* this is the addition of the previous four quarters. Until 2017, I only recorded income per unit each quarter.

Arb.

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Re: income progress

#161676

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » August 24th, 2018, 8:41 am

Comparing May to August 2017 with May to August 2018, my dividends per income unit are up 6.3% year-on-year. I'd settle for that over a full year. (A 'year' for me is the 1 May to 30 April.)

Best wishes

Mark.

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Re: income progress

#161685

Postby pendas » August 24th, 2018, 8:56 am

Looking at the detail of why my income is down on the same period last year, Carillion, Provident Finance, Pearson and National Grid who I think paid a special the previous year are the main culprits.

There are probably quite a few held dividends in the portfolio, but they are not easy for me to spot as actual share quantities often vary from year to year as they are either topped up or sold and repurchased in differing amounts within sheltered accounts.

A further blow to the dividend income as a basic rate taxpayer is that some of it is now subject to tax in unsheltered accounts of course and the cost of moving puts a drag on performance.

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Re: income progress

#161689

Postby Darka » August 24th, 2018, 9:18 am

pendas wrote:and National Grid who I think paid a special the previous year are the main culprits.


I tend to not include specials in my totals to avoid that problem, doesn't mean I don't reinvest them as of course I do but I exclude them from the total dividends received in a year, I do have a separate total for specials however.

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Re: income progress

#161725

Postby bluedonkey » August 24th, 2018, 10:50 am

Carillion, Provident Financial and Pearson all combined to produce a fall in my dividend income YTD. This is even with dividends reinvested. That said, I think of it as reversion to mean. I have had several years of very good annual income increases.

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Re: income progress

#161746

Postby pyad » August 24th, 2018, 11:36 am

For those unDorises who enjoy analysing their HYP in such detail, the additional calculation of the rolling 12 month total income updated each month is likely to be informative, maybe even more so than YTD figures. You can then see how your actual annual income varies monthly over time, rather than seeing it just once a year.

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Re: income progress

#161815

Postby Gengulphus » August 24th, 2018, 2:33 pm

Arborbridge wrote:If you started unitising only in Dec 2011, may I ask how you produced a 12 month trailing income per unit number for the same month?

As a general comment, and not trying to reply on behalf of Breelander, it's perfectly possible to start unitising on a particular date, but backdate the calculations to an earlier date. You 'just' have to be able to get hold of portfolio valuations for that earlier date and each date between it and when you started unitising on which the units-held and/or unit-value figures need to be recalculated... The problem is of course with that 'just': getting portfolio valuations for dates far in the past can be difficult, mainly because of the limitations of free sources of historical share prices - especially the fact that they tend only to keep the historical share prices of companies that leave the market (e.g. because of takeover, going bust or delisting) available for a limited period after they've left. There can also be a problem with knowing how much of which shares one's had in one's portfolio on all of those dates, though whether that's an issue depends on the investor's attitude towards keeping financial documents such as broker statements.

The result is that how far it is feasible to backdate unitisation calculations is largely a matter of luck. For example, I only decided to unitise GDHYP properly a few weeks before its year 5 report. I was pretty lucky on that, in that none of its shares had left the market and I could download share prices of all its shares right back to its start, and I had detailed records of all its purchases, in TMF threads if nowhere else (and still do, in archived form). I couldn't have done the same for HYP1 five years after it started, for instance: its original holding of Blue Circle Industries had been taken over after only about 8 months, so portfolio valuations between its starting £75k value on 13/11/2000 and the BCI takeover date would have been problematic, making at least some forms of backdated unitisation calculations difficult (I think offhand that income unit calculations wouldn't have any real problem, as they assume dividends leave the portfolio when paid, which matches how HYP1 is run and means no unitisation calculations need to be done that used portfolio valuations for the dates affected, but accumulation unit calculations would have a real problem).

The other potential issue with backdating unitisation calculations is the sheer number of them that need to be done, especially if you want both accumulation and income unit values (that's because at least one of the two types needs calculations to be done for dividend payments). Dealing with all of them efficiently did involve some quite careful spreadsheet design work, especially as I wanted the spreadsheet to deal with IRR calculations as well and to produce charts of how they had changed over time. It actually ended up doing a unitisation calculation for every single day of GDHYP's existence, relying on the fact that the unitisation formulae produce unchanged units-held and unit-value figures when given a cashflow of zero, and with the spreadsheet being quite big and cumbersome with pretty slow updates (I definitely have to turn automatic updates off to edit it, do the edits and then turn them on again, otherwise it takes forever!).

So in a sense, I dealt with the issue of the number of unitisation calculations by doing even more of them! ;-)

Gengulphus

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Re: income progress

#161819

Postby Breelander » August 24th, 2018, 2:39 pm

Arborbridge wrote:If you started unitising only in Dec 2011, may I ask how you produced a 12 month trailing income per unit number for the same month?


Because I'm an obsessive record-keeper and, as I said at the time...
Breelander (Jan. 2012) wrote:By a stroke of luck the records I have kept made it a relatively trivial (if time consuming) exercise to roll back the unitisation to the start of my portfolio.

Took me 6 months to retrospectively calculate Income Units back to 2001, after which I had to lie down in a darkened room.

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Re: income progress

#161826

Postby Breelander » August 24th, 2018, 2:59 pm

Gengulphus wrote:...You 'just' have to be able to get hold of portfolio valuations for that earlier date and each date between it and when you started unitising on which the units-held and/or unit-value figures need to be recalculated... The problem is of course with that 'just': getting portfolio valuations for dates far in the past can be difficult, mainly because of the limitations of free sources of historical share prices - especially the fact that they tend only to keep the historical share prices of companies that leave the market (e.g. because of takeover, going bust or delisting) available for a limited period after they've left. There can also be a problem with knowing how much of which shares one's had in one's portfolio on all of those dates, though whether that's an issue depends on the investor's attitude towards keeping financial documents such as broker statements.


My 'luck' (still haven't decided if it was good or bad ;)) was that I had all the necessary information to calculate Income Units already in my spreadsheet. At the beginning and end of each week I a) recorded the share prices for each of my holdings, and b) the formula for the portfolio valuation used those with the holdings and numbers held on that date to calculate the valuation. No need for statements, the dates and sizes of all trades could be read from the formulas.

The other potential issue with backdating unitisation calculations is the sheer number of them that need to be done...


Mind-numbingly tedious work - hence the six months it took (and the persistent headaches)...
Last edited by Breelander on August 24th, 2018, 3:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Gengulphus
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Re: income progress

#161827

Postby Gengulphus » August 24th, 2018, 3:00 pm

pyad wrote:For those unDorises who enjoy analysing their HYP in such detail, the additional calculation of the rolling 12 month total income updated each month is likely to be informative, maybe even more so than YTD figures. You can then see how your actual annual income varies monthly over time, rather than seeing it just once a year.

Agreed, though watch out for spikes up and down caused by companies changing their payment dates. For example, Aviva has recently pulled its interim payment date back from November to September, so there will be two months of the rolling 12-month total income including two Aviva interims rather than the usual one. Similar things can happen for companies changing their dividend payment schedule between half-yearly and quarterly, though they're more complex to describe!

How important the effect is on the portfolio income does of course depend on the weighting of the share in the portfolio. Assuming Aviva as a fairly average contributor to a 15-share HYP's income, and with its interim being a bit under a third of its yearly total, that extra interim would be about a 2% spike in portfolio income. Not major, but definitely noticeable if you're looking for changes of the order of RPI inflation.

And it could be more major - for example, if anyone were to do that analysis for HYP1 (not that I'm suggesting anyone would!), BATS's recent shift to quarterly payments might have a very noticeable temporary effect on its rolling 12-month total income...

Gengulphus


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