My dividends per unit-TJH

[tjh290633]

Arb asked if I could post this data. I think this is the best table for the purpose:

Income Units                                       
            Ordinary      Ordinary   RPI      Change     Change
Year to     Divs/unit     Divs/unit  Rebased  Divs/Unit  RPI   
05-Apr-88           2.87     100.00   100.00                   
05-Apr-89           2.75      95.71   112.28     -4.29%  12.28%
05-Apr-90           4.33     150.98   122.89     57.74%   9.45%
05-Apr-91           5.75     200.34   130.75     32.69%   6.39%
05-Apr-92           7.97     277.71   136.35     38.62%   4.28%
05-Apr-93           7.33     255.30   138.11     -8.07%   1.30%
05-Apr-94           6.65     231.50   141.65     -9.32%   2.56%
05-Apr-95           7.93     276.14   146.37     19.28%   3.33%
05-Apr-96           7.81     272.15   149.90     -1.44%   2.42%
05-Apr-97           8.90     310.02   153.54     13.92%   2.42%
05-Apr-98           9.35     325.60   159.72      5.02%   4.03%
05-Apr-99           8.91     310.18   162.28     -4.73%   1.60%
05-Apr-00          11.96     416.65   167.09     34.32%   2.97%
05-Apr-01          12.42     432.57   170.04      3.82%   1.76%
05-Apr-02          13.82     481.20   172.59     11.24%   1.50%
05-Apr-03          12.95     451.20   178.00     -6.24%   3.13%
05-Apr-04          12.48     434.56   182.42     -3.69%   2.48%
05-Apr-05          12.96     451.25   188.21      3.84%   3.18%
05-Apr-06          14.09     490.63   193.03      8.73%   2.56%
05-Apr-07          15.07     524.76   201.77      6.96%   4.53%
05-Apr-08          26.09     908.86   210.22     73.20%   4.19%
05-Apr-09          22.76     792.84   207.76    -12.77%  -1.17%
05-Apr-10          11.91     414.74   218.86    -47.69%   5.34%
05-Apr-11          16.71     582.13   230.26     40.36%   5.21%
05-Apr-12          18.79     654.57   238.21     12.44%   3.46%
05-Apr-13          20.89     727.68   245.09     11.17%   2.89%
05-Apr-14          21.48     748.29   250.29      2.83%   2.12%
05-Apr-15          22.40     780.31   253.44      4.28%   1.26%
05-Apr-16          22.77     793.06   256.78      1.63%   1.32%
05-Apr-17          24.93     868.15   265.82      9.47%   3.52%

There are the original data, then both dividend and RPI rebased to 100 and the annual change in each.

You can see the years where I have slipped back for a while.

TJH

[Arborbridge]

Well, I can see without plotting anything, quite a big difference - assuming I am understanding the numbers.

Taking comparable (not exact) dates:

TJH income per unit year to Apr 2011: 16.71..... and to Apr 2017 24.93 increase a factor of 1.49x
Arb income per unit year to Mar 2011: 4.61......and to Mar 2017 6.59 increase a factor of 1.43x

As they said in that famous film: "I'll have some of what she's having".

[tjh290633]

Very comparable, ARB. That is only to be expected of course.

TJH

[Arborbridge]

Very comparable, ARB. That is only to be expected of course.

TJH

Yes, we have similar HYPs, but your growth over that period is compounding slightly faster. About 6.8% pa in place of my 6.1%.

Neither to be sneezed at.

[tjh290633]

I had eliminated special dividends from the calculation, so that is not a factor. It may be as simple as having different weightings of the shares. This is my list of the percentage of portfolio income received from each share:

Rank  EPIC  % Income
   1  TW.      5.98%
   2  RDSB     4.83%
   3  MARS     4.53%
   4  SSE      4.36%
   5  BP.      4.27%
   6  RIO      3.85%
   7  VOD      3.72%
   8  LGEN     3.72%
   9  ADM      3.68%
  10  GSK      3.61%
  11  MKS      3.50%
  12  AV.      3.49%
  13  BT.A     3.25%
  14  AZN      3.23%
  15  WMH      3.12%
  16  IMB      2.96%
  17  BLND     2.85%
  18  NG.      2.81%
  19  IMI      2.62%
  20  LLOY     2.58%
  21  SGRO     2.55%
  22  UU.      2.51%
  23  TATE     2.38%
  24  BATS     2.25%
  25  BLT      2.24%
  26  SMDS     2.21%
  27  BA.      2.21%
  28  ULVR     1.83%
  29  KGF      1.63%
  30  DGE      1.60%
  31  CPG      1.47%
  32  RB.      1.36%
  33  S32      1.22%
  34  PSON     1.10%
  35  TSCO     0.50%
  36  INDV     0.00%
  37  CLLN     0.00%

That's the only explanation that I can think of. Those data exclude special dividends, except for TW. and ADM.

TJH

[Arborbridge]

I expect it is a question of weightings and in particular how they've altered in the time over which we are looking, with top-ups changing the balance. Here's my table, but it is based on income weighting using forecasts, so not quite comparable.

[johnw11]

Hi Terry

I was looking at that and thinking it has taken 9 years and you have still not got back to dividend per unit of 2008 before the big drops of 2009 and 2010. I then see though that you had a big increase in 2008, so was that an unusual year, and that really we are looking a at nice smooth climb since 2007 with 2008-2010 being the unusual years.

Regards

John

[tjh290633]

Yes, you are right. That big rise in 2008 was due to buying some very high yield shares, which subsequently let us all down in the following years. They were the DSGI, RTO, TNI, MAY group especially, not to mention HBOS and LLOY.

What you should bear in mind is that those data are Divident per income unit. In absolute terms, my portfolio income is almost double what it was in 2008-9. However the number of units is about 50% higher.

TJH

[Arborbridge]

Hi Terry

I was looking at that and thinking it has taken 9 years and you have still not got back to dividend per unit of 2008 before the big drops of 2009 and 2010. I then see though that you had a big increase in 2008, so was that an unusual year, and that really we are looking a at nice smooth climb since 2007 with 2008-2010 being the unusual years

John

It was certainly a disappointingly big drop, but then there was previously an outsize rise for some reason. This isn't quite so bad as it might seem if you reason that in practice, you would want to increase your pension income by the rate of inflation. If 15.07p in 2007 were pegged to inflation, by 2011 you would expect something like 17.19p. The income produced by this HYP wasn't far off that value, so if one had budgeted carefully, the huge drop would have been manageable.

One can use this table to get some idea one how much Income Reserve one should hold to make up for the lower income while the income stream is recovering. Generally, people have come to the conclusion that something like 12-18 months income in cash would suffice. In my case, I withdraw 80% of income, so looking at TJH's table, I would have drawn about 12p in 2007 and re-investing the rest, mitigating what looks like a large fall and making it tolerable.

[Itsallaguess]

There are the original data, then both dividend and RPI rebased to 100 and the annual change in each.

You can see the years where I have slipped back for a while.

Hi Terry,

I quite often find myself coming back to your tabular income data, similar to the one in the opening post of this thread.

Are you please able to update the table with this year's data when you've got chance?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Darka]

Hi Terry,

Thanks for this report, very useful.

I'm thinking of adding some unitisation to my data to track my HYP portfolio against my IT portfolio and also against RPI - to help me work out a few things.

A basic question I have is how did you rebase the dividend per unit and RPI figures, I'm relatively new to the term so not 100% sure what you mean by it?

regards,
Darka

[tjh290633]

There are the original data, then both dividend and RPI rebased to 100 and the annual change in each.

You can see the years where I have slipped back for a while.

Hi Terry,

I quite often find myself coming back to your tabular income data, similar to the one in the opening post of this thread.

Are you please able to update the table with this year's data when you've got chance?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

I'll have a look at it. It will certainly be updated at the end of the financial year.

TJH

[tjh290633]

Hi Terry,

Thanks for this report, very useful.

I'm thinking of adding some unitisation to my data to track my HYP portfolio against my IT portfolio and also against RPI - to help me work out a few things.

A basic question I have is how did you rebase the dividend per unit and RPI figures, I'm relatively new to the term so not 100% sure what you mean by it?

regards,
Darka

Let's say that the dividend per unit in the first year was 4p and the RPI was 135. I then divide the annual dividends by 4p, so that the initial value is rebased to 1.00, and the RPI is divided by 135, so that the initial index becomes 1.00 when rebased. This means that the rebased figures start at the same value and can be compared easily.

Hope that is clear.

TJH

[Darka]

Hope that is clear.

Perfectly clear, thank you

[tjh290633]

Here is the table, updated to 5th April last:

.           Ordinary   Rebased    RPI      Change     Change
Year to     Divs/unit  Divs/unit  Rebased  Divs/unit  RPI   
05-Apr-88        2.87     100.00   101.80                   
05-Apr-89        2.75      95.71   114.30     -4.29%  12.28%
05-Apr-90        4.33     150.98   125.10     57.74%   9.45%
05-Apr-91        5.75     200.34   133.10     32.69%   6.39%
05-Apr-92        7.97     277.71   138.80     38.62%   4.28%
05-Apr-93        7.33     255.30   140.60     -8.07%   1.30%
05-Apr-94        6.65     231.50   144.20     -9.32%   2.56%
05-Apr-95        7.93     276.14   149.00     19.28%   3.33%
05-Apr-96        7.81     272.15   152.60     -1.44%   2.42%
05-Apr-97        8.90     310.02   156.30     13.92%   2.42%
05-Apr-98        9.35     325.60   162.60      5.02%   4.03%
05-Apr-99        8.91     310.18   165.20     -4.73%   1.60%
05-Apr-00       11.96     416.65   170.10     34.32%   2.97%
05-Apr-01       12.42     432.57   173.10      3.82%   1.76%
05-Apr-02       13.82     481.20   175.70     11.24%   1.50%
05-Apr-03       12.95     451.20   181.20     -6.24%   3.13%
05-Apr-04       12.48     434.56   185.70     -3.69%   2.48%
05-Apr-05       12.96     451.25   191.60      3.84%   3.18%
05-Apr-06       14.09     490.63   196.50      8.73%   2.56%
05-Apr-07       15.07     524.76   205.40      6.96%   4.53%
05-Apr-08       26.09     908.86   214.00     73.20%   4.19%
05-Apr-09       22.76     792.84   211.50    -12.77%  -1.17%
05-Apr-10       11.91     414.74   222.80    -47.69%   5.34%
05-Apr-11       16.71     582.13   234.40     40.36%   5.21%
05-Apr-12       18.79     654.57   242.50     12.44%   3.46%
05-Apr-13       20.89     727.68   249.50     11.17%   2.89%
05-Apr-14       21.48     748.29   254.80      2.83%   2.12%
05-Apr-15       22.40     780.31   258.00      4.28%   1.26%
05-Apr-16       22.77     793.06   261.40      1.63%   1.32%
05-Apr-17       24.93     868.15   270.60      9.47%   3.52%
05-Apr-18       31.73   1,105.17   275.80     27.30%   1.92%

TJH

[Itsallaguess]

Here is the table, updated to 5th April last..

Superb - thanks Terry.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Darka]

Hope that is clear.

I thought I was ok, but now am confused, in your second table (including 2018) the rebased RPI figures have changed, but the rebased dividends haven't

Regards,
Darka

[tjh290633]

Hope that is clear.

I thought I was ok, but now am confused, in your second table (including 2018) the rebased RPI figures have changed, but the rebased dividends haven't

Regards,
Darka

No reason why they should. The start point data is unchanged.

Ah, I think I know the reason. The RPI is based on the actual value, which was rebased to 100 in April 1997.

TJH

[IanTHughes]

Here is the table, updated to 5th April last..

How does one calculate the number of units when one is adding to that number throughout the year?

I mean, to get Dividend / Unit I can easily calculate my total Dividend receipts over the past 12 months and then divide by the number of Units currently held, but is that the right way? Or should one take the balance of units at the start of the period?

Any explanation would be gratefully received


Ian

[Darka]

Hi Terry,

Now I understand, I was being a bit slow earlier - thanks for your help.

regards,
Darka