IDP HYP October Top Up

[idpickering]

Morning all, here's my HYP as of now. I've decided to top up my Vodafone holdings for this month, to be carried out on 22 Oct 18.

Admiral Group
AstraZeneca
Aviva
BAE Systems
BHP Billiton
BP.
BT Group
British American Tobacco
British Land
Diageo
Direct Line Group
GlaxoSmithKline
Greene King
HSBC
ITV
Imperial Brands
Legal & General
Lloyds
Marston's
National Grid
Persimmon
Reckitt Benckiser
Rio Tinto
Shell
SSE
Sainsbury's
Standard Life Aberdeen
Tate & Lyle
Taylor Wimpey
United Utilities
Vodafone
WPP

Sector                      %  

Oil & gas                  9.7%
Household Goods            7.8%
Life Insurance             6.9%
Pharmas                    6.7%
Media                      6.6%
Mining                     6.5%
Non Life Insurance         6.4%
Media                      6.7%
Tobacco                    6.6%
Banks                      6.3%
Utilities (gas & water)    6.0%
Travel & Leisure           4.8%
General Finance            3.3%
Fixed Telcos               3.2%
Food Retail                3.2%
Food Producers             3.2%
Aerospace & Defence        3.1%
Electricity                2.9%
Mobile Telcos              2.6%
Real Estate                2.6%
Beverages                  1.6%

Comments welcome.

Ian.

[OLTB]

Unilever would be a good fit

Hi Ian - your HYP looks very diverse and robust so topping up VOD (under the mobile telecos banner I guess) seems a sensible choice - big dividend at the moment and a lowish exposure on your HYP as a whole.

Persimmon is a higher yield than VOD currently so any reasons why you may be leaving that one alone?

Cheers, OLTB.

[monabri]

Persimmon is a higher yield than VOD currently so any reasons why you may be leaving that one alone?

Cheers, OLTB.

At the moment....the way it's going with VOD.... a VOD top up might be close on to the Persimmon yield.

Mobile Telecomms is 2.6% so "underweight" might be the answer.

[OLTB]

Persimmon is a higher yield than VOD currently so any reasons why you may be leaving that one alone?

Cheers, OLTB.

At the moment....the way it's going with VOD.... a VOD top up might be close on to the Persimmon yield.

Mobile Telecomms is 2.6% so "underweight" might be the answer.

Hi monabri

Yes, both Mobile Telecomms and Real Estate are at 2.6% and perhaps the known position that Persimmon will be planning on reducing the capital repayments (dividends) in 2020 (I think) could be a factor.

I'm also Pickering over these two for my next top-up...

Cheers, OLTB.

[idpickering]

Unilever would be a good fit

Hi Ian - your HYP looks very diverse and robust so topping up VOD (under the mobile telecos banner I guess) seems a sensible choice - big dividend at the moment and a lowish exposure on your HYP as a whole.

Persimmon is a higher yield than VOD currently so any reasons why you may be leaving that one alone?

Cheers, OLTB.

Hell guys, thanks for your replies. Thanks for the diverse and robust comment, as that is reassuring.
As for me ignoring Persimmon this time around, it is my intention to top them up early next year. As I like to buy before a share goes ex dividend, and Vodafone are for their interim in November, they got the nod. I've already planned a top up of Marston's for my November bet, before their December finals ex dividend date, or maybe Standard Life Aberdeen instead? Thereafter, I don't like to plan to far ahead as no one knows what's happening tomorrow, let alone 6 weeks away. Marston's trading statement out tomorrow by the way.

Ian.

[monabri]

Morning all, here's my HYP as of now. I've decided to top up my Vodafone holdings for this month, to be carried out on 22 Oct 18.

Comments welcome.

Ian.

In light of your posting on Jefferies downgrade Ian, does this cause you any hesitation regarding a top up of VOD?

From the share centre, I've taken the latest broker views. They are so far out (IMHO) that they make me question their usefulness. Has such a lot cheanged with VOD in the last 6 months?

[OLTB]

Morning all, here's my HYP as of now. I've decided to top up my Vodafone holdings for this month, to be carried out on 22 Oct 18.

Comments welcome.

Ian.

In light of your posting on Jefferies downgrade Ian, does this cause you any hesitation regarding a top up of VOD?

From the share centre, I've taken the latest broker views. They are so far out (IMHO) that they make me question their usefulness. Has such a lot cheanged with VOD in the last 6 months?

Looking at that I tend to agree monabri and think that we should follow pyad's and others' advice and don't pay one jot of attention to brokers views. They are guessing (as the above demonstrates) and although their announcements may affect a share's price in the short term, ultimately, the price will find it's own level.

Cheers, OLTB.

Cheers, OLTB>

[idpickering]

In light of your posting on Jefferies downgrade Ian, does this cause you any hesitation regarding a top up of VOD?

From the share centre, I've taken the latest broker views. They are so far out (IMHO) that they make me question their usefulness. Has such a lot cheanged with VOD in the last 6 months?

Hi monabri, I very nearly put my post regarding the VOD item into the main body of this thread, but thought it deserved it's own thread rather than cluttering this one up. Thanks for the list of broker views, but tbh I don't pay them much attention, and like to make my own mind up. In short, the VOD top up stands. Thank you OLTB also.

Ian.

[kempiejon]

Persimmon is a higher yield than VOD currently so any reasons why you may be leaving that one alone?

Cheers, OLTB.

As mentioned on another thread Persimmon is paying out extras as return of cash rather than normal dividends and has only committed such a large return of cash to share holders until 2021.
https://www.persimmonhomes.com/corporat ... eturn-plan

Ian, I see mobile telcos is your 2nd lowest weighted holding, but would you not like to bring Marstons' or Greene King up a bit too? I think MARS is a little below the indexes I prefer fishing in but FTSE250 Greene King has a decade plus unblemished divided record and offers nigh on 7%.

[idpickering]

Persimmon is a higher yield than VOD currently so any reasons why you may be leaving that one alone?

Cheers, OLTB.

As mentioned on another thread Persimmon is paying out extras as return of cash rather than normal dividends and has only committed such a large return of cash to share holders until 2021.
https://www.persimmonhomes.com/corporat ... eturn-plan

Ian, I see mobile telcos is your 2nd lowest weighted holding, but would you not like to bring Marstons' or Greene King up a bit too? I think MARS is a little below the indexes I prefer fishing in but FTSE250 Greene King has a decade plus unblemished divided record and offers nigh on 7%.

Hi kempiejon, and thank you for your input. I did mention further up this thread that Marston’s looked like they’ve got the nod for next month’s dollop. I do intend topping up Greene King at some point too.

Ian.

[Gengulphus]

Looking at that I tend to agree monabri and think that we should follow pyad's and others' advice and don't pay one jot of attention to brokers views. They are guessing (as the above demonstrates) and although their announcements may affect a share's price in the short term, ultimately, the price will find it's own level.

I don't think pyad's advice can be quite "don't pay one jot of attention to brokers views", because he does pay attention to forecast dividends, and they're formed from brokers' views... So he does advocate paying one jot of attention to broker's views, namely to their views about the short-term dividend prospects for a company taken in the aggregate (not individually) - but quite possibly only that one jot.

Gengulphus

[pyad]

Looking at that I tend to agree monabri and think that we should follow pyad's and others' advice and don't pay one jot of attention to brokers views. They are guessing (as the above demonstrates) and although their announcements may affect a share's price in the short term, ultimately, the price will find it's own level.

I don't think pyad's advice can be quite "don't pay one jot of attention to brokers views", because he does pay attention to forecast dividends, and they're formed from brokers' views... So he does advocate paying one jot of attention to broker's views, namely to their views about the short-term dividend prospects for a company taken in the aggregate (not individually) - but quite possibly only that one jot.

Gengulphus

Indeed. But I think it's clear that my advice referred to by OLTB meant the verbal opinions brokers publish, as illustrated by the examples of this sort of guff mentioned earlier, not my use of their dividend forecasts that I sometimes use as part of my HYP share selection process. So not even a jot.

Thus I reiterate that HYPers should be wholly underweight in broker views.

Actually I find it hard to understand why any experienced HYPer would feature brokers' views at all on the HYP board, even if intended as an illustration of what rubbish they are.

[EssDeeAitch]

Looking at that I tend to agree monabri and think that we should follow pyad's and others' advice and don't pay one jot of attention to brokers views. They are guessing (as the above demonstrates) and although their announcements may affect a share's price in the short term, ultimately, the price will find it's own level.

I don't think pyad's advice can be quite "don't pay one jot of attention to brokers views", because he does pay attention to forecast dividends, and they're formed from brokers' views... So he does advocate paying one jot of attention to broker's views, namely to their views about the short-term dividend prospects for a company taken in the aggregate (not individually) - but quite possibly only that one jot.

Gengulphus

Indeed. But I think it's clear that my advice referred to by OLTB meant the verbal opinions brokers publish, as illustrated by the examples of this sort of guff mentioned earlier, not my use of their dividend forecasts that I sometimes use as part of my HYP share selection process. So not even a jot.

Thus I reiterate that HYPers should be wholly underweight in broker views.

Actually I find it hard to understand why any experienced HYPer would feature brokers' views at all on the HYP board, even if intended as an illustration of what rubbish they are.

It's disappointing that brokers views are considered so poorly; I was certainly using them in the formation of my mini-HYP. They were not the first screening tool used (the last actually) but I was really interested to see what they had to say on the stock choices I had made.

Where brokers opinion had moved from buy to strong buy (for example) then that gave me a degree more of comfort. However, I also noticed that some brokers moved towards buy, some towards sell and others remained where they were three months ago so no collective wisdom on display.

Perhaps they are a waste of time.

[pyad]

It's disappointing that brokers views are considered so poorly; I was certainly using them in the formation of my mini-HYP. They were not the first screening tool used (the last actually) but I was really interested to see what they had to say on the stock choices I had made.

Where brokers opinion had moved from buy to strong buy (for example) then that gave me a degree more of comfort. However, I also noticed that some brokers moved towards buy, some towards sell and others remained where they were three months ago so no collective wisdom on display.

Perhaps they are a waste of time.

It's the sort of thing that beginners think is meaningful so I understand why you were seduced by them. After all they're pros and know better than any of us, right? Wrong!

Once you've gained a bit of experience you soon realise how useless brokers' views are to HYPers. I suggest you pay no heed whatsoever to them. There's no "Perhaps" about them being a waste of time.

[idpickering]

Thank you for your input on the broker views issue Stephen. Have a rec sir.

Ian.

[EssDeeAitch]

It's the sort of thing that beginners think is meaningful so I understand why you were seduced by them. After all they're pros and know better than any of us, right? Wrong!

Once you've gained a bit of experience you soon realise how useless brokers' views are to HYPers. I suggest you pay no heed whatsoever to them. There's no "Perhaps" about them being a waste of time.

Not sure about the seduced bit (at my age indeed) but I do get the point and disappointingly, agree with you.

[Wizard]

A top up of Vod, whatever happened to 'when a yield looks too good to be true, it probably is'? Do you have no concerns about what Mr Market is saying? If you are not worried about how high the yield is, what gives you that confidence?

Terry.

[tjh290633]

A top up of Vod, whatever happened to 'when a yield looks too good to be true, it probably is'? Do you have no concerns about what Mr Market is saying? If you are not worried about how high the yield is, what gives you that confidence?

Terry.

Mr Market isn't always right.

Have a look at https://www.investegate.co.uk/vodafone- ... 00080431O/ and search for "cash flow". I don't see anything there to frighten the horses.

TJH

[Arborbridge]

Have a look at https://www.investegate.co.uk/vodafone- ... 00080431O/ and search for "cash flow". I don't see anything there to frighten the horses.

TJH

Probably not. The cash situation deteriorated (borrowings increased 300m) but that was due to buy-backs as much as dividends - and presumably buybacks are "discretional".

With a healthy cash flow cover, why does the eps cover always look so horrid?

Arb.

[tjh290633]

With a healthy cash flow cover, why does the eps cover always look so horrid?

Arb.

Loc. Cit.

Adjusted earnings per share

Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the results of Vodafone India which are included in discontinued operations, were 11.59 eurocents, an increase of 44.2% year-on-year, as higher adjusted operating profit and lower net financing costs more than offset the increase in income tax expense.

Basic earnings per share were 8.78 eurocents, compared to a loss per share of 22.51 eurocents for the year ended 31 March 2017, with the increase largely due to the prior year including a non-cash impairment charge of €3.7 billion, net of tax, recognised in discontinued operations in respect of the Group's investment in India and the changes in deferred tax on losses, as described above, both of which have been excluded from adjusted earnings per share.

The salient words are "non cash impairment charge".

TJH