The Tobaccos

[monabri]

Another view (IMB)

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 94300.html

"Imperial Brands PLC on Friday said US Food & Drug Administration's proposals regarding menthol cigarettes and flavoured cigars would need to be supported by the relevant science and other evidence."

"The company behind Davidoff and Camel cigarette brands added that it will fully engage with FDA over its proposals, which is likely to be a multi-year process."

[jackdaww]

A suitably political message which does not change anything. If we are not concerned about the capital values, then tobacco shares ought to be Ok for some time yet as income stocks, but I will not I think be adding to my holdings. I think I have enough already anyway.

Dod

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i have a big holding in IMPS , and i'm not too concerned by the fluctuations in capital as long as they hold up long term .

may add if the SP drops a lot , otherwise holding on.

[bluedonkey]

I topped up BATS yesterday and the day before. Decided against VOD, the BATS dividend looks more secure.

[monabri]

BAT with a 7.2% yield...didn't see that coming.

[idpickering]

I topped up BATS yesterday and the day before. Decided against VOD, the BATS dividend looks more secure.

I’ve pencilled in a top up of BATS for next month myself. Fluctuations in sp don’t bother me to much to be honest, and buying that juicy yield, without over exposing to BATS shares, is a sound move imho.

Ian.

[YeeWo]

I’ve pencilled in a top up of BATS for next month myself. Fluctuations in sp don’t bother me to much to be honest, and buying that juicy yield, without over exposing to BATS shares, is a sound move imho. Ian.

I've been adding BATS in various degrees all year. £0.488p per share dividend quarterly really appeals. I have the same strategy with BATS & VOD : take an oversize position relative to the size of my portfolio with dividend income being front-of-mind, take a long term view and be prepared to trim when/and/or if capital values recover or yield falls.
It seems inevitable that BAT will go through some sort of restructuring/kitchen-sinking by the new-CEO which should hopefully deliver over time........

[idpickering]

I’ve pencilled in a top up of BATS for next month myself. Fluctuations in sp don’t bother me to much to be honest, and buying that juicy yield, without over exposing to BATS shares, is a sound move imho. Ian.

I've been adding BATS in various degrees all year. £0.488p per share dividend quarterly really appeals. I have the same strategy with BATS & VOD : take an oversize position relative to the size of my portfolio with dividend income being front-of-mind, take a long term view and be prepared to trim when/and/or if capital values recover or yield falls.
It seems inevitable that BAT will go through some sort of restructuring/kitchen-sinking by the new-CEO which should hopefully deliver over time........

I do something similar, buying on the dips, but I rarely if ever trim. I bought more BATS a few months ago, and a further small top up won’t make me overly exposed. Iliketo buy more income on the cheap if I can. I doubled up on RDSB early 2016 for instance.

Ian

[monabri]

I've never been fortunate enough to be in a position to trim!

[moorfield]

BATS tonight, I think, is yielding higher than IMB for the first time this year (7.0% vs. 6.9%), and looking at my end of year table for 2017 has doubled since then.

[moorfield]

There is reason for concern there, but I'm not entirely convinced that the writing is on the wall for the industry just yet. In particular, with legalisation of cannabis for recreational use becoming more widespread (Canada, 20% of US states), ISTM that Big Tobacco is well placed to become Big Weed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46200873

Since the first day recreational cannabis was legalised in Canada, there have been shortages.

Quite so, there's the next market then ...

[idpickering]

I've never been fortunate enough to be in a position to trim!

To be honest, I’d rather let my winners run, but I’m very draconian with losers, and am likely to dump them pretty sharpish, as per Carillion.

Ian.

[Arborbridge]

I've never been fortunate enough to be in a position to trim!

To be honest, I’d rather let my winners run, but I’m very draconian with losers, and am likely to dump them pretty sharpish, as per Carillion.

Ian.

Define winner, or loser. BAT will be a winner for some, but is rapidly looking like a loser to other people

So it still comes down to either some sort of "rule" or alternatively a fine judgement which is subject to emotional bias.

Arb.

[jackdaww]

I've never been fortunate enough to be in a position to trim!

To be honest, I’d rather let my winners run, but I’m very draconian with losers, and am likely to dump them pretty sharpish, as per Carillion.

Ian.

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BATS is not a carillion.

are these menthol users going to give up nicotine?

of course not , so how are the tobaccos going to suffer ?

[idpickering]

I've never been fortunate enough to be in a position to trim!

To be honest, I’d rather let my winners run, but I’m very draconian with losers, and am likely to dump them pretty sharpish, as per Carillion.

Ian.

========================

BATS is not a carillion.

are these menthol users going to give up nicotine?

of course not , so how are the tobaccos going to suffer ?

I don’t smoke, but having worked with more than a few, and their fag breaks, I can’t see fag shares being under the cosh for long.

Ian.

[idpickering]

Define winner, or loser. BAT will be a winner for some, but is rapidly looking like a loser to other people

So it still comes down to either some sort of "rule" or alternatively a fine judgement which is subject to emotional bias.

Arb.

I agree Arb, there’s is some degree of emotional bias. By my metrics I should dump my fag shares, but I’m not going to.

Ian.

[Arborbridge]

I agree Arb, there’s is some degree of emotional bias. By my metrics I should dump my fag shares, but I’m not going to.

Ian.

What metrics are you looking at which says "dump fag shares" as a matter of interest? It hadn't occurred to me.

I suppose one can make a case for dumping almost any share, and that's the problem! - which I guess was one the original drivers of the SI idea - to avoid the quick judgements which we are all prone to make from time to time and say "easy back a bit - just let the market sort it out".

Arb.

[Dod101]

My take on the tobaccos is as follows.

Our two tobacco shares do not look as if they are going bust and are still paying out what looks like very secure dividends, although their share prices have taken a hammering. Why? I suppose because the market/market makers think there is a risk to their future trading prospects. That is probably true, but having held on through the bloodbath, do we stay the course or get out? We still have our income and it looks as if it will continue to grow and I judge that there is no existential risk, probably in my life time, say the next 10/15 years if I am lucky. I conclude that I might as well hang on to them. Had I known about the trajectory of the BAT share price this last week I guess I would have sold beforehand but I did not and see no advantage in selling now, but I will not be adding. Capital matters to me.

Dod

[jackdaww]

My take on the tobaccos is as follows.

Our two tobacco shares do not look as if they are going bust and are still paying out what looks like very secure dividends, although their share prices have taken a hammering. Why? I suppose because the market/market makers think there is a risk to their future trading prospects. That is probably true, but having held on through the bloodbath, do we stay the course or get out? We still have our income and it looks as if it will continue to grow and I judge that there is no existential risk, probably in my life time, say the next 10/15 years if I am lucky. I conclude that I might as well hang on to them. Had I known about the trajectory of the BAT share price this last week I guess I would have sold beforehand but I did not and see no advantage in selling now, but I will not be adding. Capital matters to me.

Dod

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and many others ...

[jackdaww]

I agree Arb, there’s is some degree of emotional bias. By my metrics I should dump my fag shares, but I’m not going to.

Ian.

What metrics are you looking at which says "dump fag shares" as a matter of interest? It hadn't occurred to me.

I suppose one can make a case for dumping almost any share, and that's the problem! - which I guess was one the original drivers of the SI idea - to avoid the quick judgements which we are all prone to make from time to time and say "easy back a bit - just let the market sort it out".

Arb.

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but this laid back approach has cost people - carillion and a few others.

[Bouleversee]

Ft refers to fear of dividend cut since menthol accunts for25% of BATs group earnings.