The Tobaccos

[JuanDB]

Just noticed two trades at 16:35 today.

£77m BATS sell
£30m IMB buy

I suspect the timing isn’t coincidental. I wonder where the other £47m went?

[monabri]

They're the uncrossed trade values ( well the imb one is)...I didn't check the BATS.

16:35:11 12-Nov-2018 2,690.00 GBX 1,121,397 30,165,579.30 Uncrossed Trade

[Dod101]

Sadly at that time the numbers mean nothing to ordinary mortals.

Dod

[moorfield]

I'm happy to hold both IMB, BATS for the forseeable future, but I think I'll be paying more attention to their annual reports over the next few years before further top-ups, as I currently plan to be relying on their dividends in the 2030s and 40s ...

Hilarious. Since I wrote that I've got home to find my broker bought some more IMB shares for me today. I did a small topup last cheap dealing day (with the intention of scooping a little more cash from its last dividend this year), and obviously forgot to cancel the monthly order. You (almost) couldn't make it up. I haven't checked but I am now likely overweight on income from the tobaccos, so there certainly won't be any further topups for the forseeable.

[monabri]

Plenty of time to build a stockpile of cigarettes. Then there will potentially be smuggling across the Canadian and Mexican borders.

This will be after BATs lays off staff in the US no doubt!

It will soon be easier to buy a gun in the US than cigarettes.... Maybe in a few years?

[Arborbridge]

Ooer....


As good as it gets, as scary as it gets, time to fill your boots? Readers' choice.


Arb.

[moorfield]

Looking at my records I bought the bulk of my BATS in 2008 at £17.10, with top ups since bringing average cost to £23.13. I'm still comfortably ahead capital wise. IMB still offers the higher yield of the two - my cockup yesterday was (I hope) a serendipitous one ...

[Arborbridge]

Looking at my records I bought the bulk of my BATS in 2008 at £17.10, with top ups since bringing average cost to £23.13. I'm still comfortably ahead capital wise. IMB still offers the higher yield of the two - my cockup yesterday was (I hope) a serendipitous one ...

Similar story here, (initial buys 2009, around £17) with my average price over the years including charges of £24.7. I notice from my chart that the yellow dots show that I have contrived to miss all the peak yields sweet spots except for one! Perhaps I should have checked the chart beforehand

[Dod101]

I bought BAT in 2001 at £5.4475. I can't say that it makes me feel any better though. Anyway they are up a bit this morning.

Dod

[Bouleversee]

If one just looks at the current yields and p/e ratios which, in my simplistic way, is what I used to go by, both companies would appear to be a buy at the moment and analysts are still showing them as such, yet yesterday's drop in BATS in particular was savage. How much attention should we pay to such drops? I think it was overdone. Nonetheless, I think it is a declining industry and government policies will hasten this (just my feeling) so whilst I have no intention of selling at current lows, I might start monitoring prices rather more and start reducing when an opportunity presents itself.

[Gengulphus]

... I notice from my chart that the yellow dots show that I have contrived to miss all the peak yields sweet spots except for one! Perhaps I should have checked the chart beforehand

I reckon you need a instead of that emoticon - surely you know that at least in the absence of a working crystal ball, the idea of working out beforehand whether you're buying at a chart peak is a joke?

Gengulphus

[Arborbridge]

... I notice from my chart that the yellow dots show that I have contrived to miss all the peak yields sweet spots except for one! Perhaps I should have checked the chart beforehand

I reckon you need a instead of that emoticon - surely you know that at least in the absence of a working crystal ball, the idea of working out beforehand whether you're buying at a chart peak is a joke?

Gengulphus

True enough, but you could see it was a dip, a certainly not a peak on that second buy point (26/2/10). Had I looked, I might (on the other hand) have decided to buy before the falling yield got any worse!
In the event, I usually judged by my HYPTUSS, and the cash available: never looked at a yield chart at that time.
Actually, I know there was one case, and that was Marks in 2010 when I accessed a yield chart through some software I had at that time and found the yield curve rather enticing.

Arb.

[monabri]

Well, on offer todat at ~6.9%, ARB might need to adjust the ordinate axis to 7.0%.

[CommissarJones]

Nonetheless, I think it is a declining industry

There is reason for concern there, but I'm not entirely convinced that the writing is on the wall for the industry just yet. In particular, with legalisation of cannabis for recreational use becoming more widespread (Canada, 20% of US states), ISTM that Big Tobacco is well placed to become Big Weed.

[YeeWo]

but I'm not entirely convinced that the writing is on the wall for the industry just yet. In particular, with legalisation of cannabis for recreational use becoming more widespread (Canada, 20% of US states), ISTM that Big Tobacco is well placed to become Big Weed.

BAT's purchase of the 52% of Reynolds they didn't own looks spectacularly badly timed as things stand, that said BAT's 29.6% stake in ITC in India is still worth circa £11bn giving scope for another acquisition when/and/or if Indian Govt allows. Likewise Marijuana will eventually need controlled professional production and distribution backed by MNCs. I've added to BAT today, I'll keep banking the quarterly dividend and have faith the industry will overcome this. Governments the world over must realise the more difficult they make conditions for the legitimate nicotine industry the easier they're making things for the illicit industry.

[Bouleversee]

Nonetheless, I think it is a declining industry

There is reason for concern there, but I'm not entirely convinced that the writing is on the wall for the industry just yet. In particular, with legalisation of cannabis for recreational use becoming more widespread (Canada, 20% of US states), ISTM that Big Tobacco is well placed to become Big Weed.

Possibly, but that will only last till the psychotic effect on an increased number of susceptible users becomes apparent. Which is worst: youngsters whose life chances are wiped out at an early age (I know of a few amongst my friends' children) and dependent forever on the state or possibly a somewhat earlier death than the norm through smoking tobacco which is likely to affect only heavy smokers? ISTM that education rather than increasing taxation or legislation is the answer. I won't buy gambling shares*, I'm not all that happy about owning tobacco shares and I certainly won't be buying cannabis shares unless in a company selling it purely for medicinal use..

* I do sometimes think there isn't much difference between gambling on a terminal and buying equities in the market, but there isn't much alternative at the moment.

[CommissarJones]

So U.S. health regulators will definitely proceed with a proposal to ban menthol cigarettes, rather than merely considering such a step, it seems - the Food and Drug Administration has just released a statement.

We will advance a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that would seek to ban menthol in combustible tobacco products, including cigarettes and cigars, informed by the comments on our Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM).

[idpickering]

So U.S. health regulators will definitely proceed with a proposal to ban menthol cigarettes, rather than merely considering such a step, it seems - the Food and Drug Administration has just released a statement.

We will advance a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that would seek to ban menthol in combustible tobacco products, including cigarettes and cigars, informed by the comments on our Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM).

Imperial Brands put this out this morning;

Imperial Brands responds to FDA announcement

We welcome the US Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) moves to prevent youth access to tobacco and vapour products. We share the same concerns and objectives as the FDA: the use by minors of these products is completely unacceptable. Vapour products are for adult smokers and their sale to anyone underage should be prevented. However, we also recognise the challenge faced by the FDA in balancing concerns regarding youth appeal and access, given the positive public health potential of vapour products.

We believe that through our blu product range we offer adult smokers a significantly better alternative than combustible cigarettes and consistently reinforce this message, while at the same time working actively against youth access to, and usage of, our products.

On the FDA's specific actions, we welcome its commitment to standards for effective age verification for all online sales of vapour products; a technology which we already use on blu.com.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/imperial- ... 00035496H/

[Dod101]

A suitably political message which does not change anything. If we are not concerned about the capital values, then tobacco shares ought to be Ok for some time yet as income stocks, but I will not I think be adding to my holdings. I think I have enough already anyway.

Dod

[idpickering]

A suitably political message which does not change anything. If we are not concerned about the capital values, then tobacco shares ought to be Ok for some time yet as income stocks, but I will not I think be adding to my holdings. I think I have enough already anyway.

Dod

I agree with you Dod, but I am still going to make a small top up of my IMB holdings next Thursday, and that should be enough tobacco shares for me.

Ian.