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HYP1 is 18

For discussion of the practicalities of setting up and operating income-portfolios which follow the HYP Group Guidelines. READ Guidelines before posting
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Arborbridge
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Re: HYP1 is 18

#181704

Postby Arborbridge » November 20th, 2018, 3:14 pm

Dod101 wrote: From the viewpoint of a HYP portfolio with its concentration on income we could say that nothing has changed as far as BATS is concerned and yet, I cannot but recognise that we have lost several years of income from the share price in a very short space of time. As I think you have said, money is fungible and to that extent, it is somewhat artificial to look at dividends as income and growth of the share price as capital accretion. Fundamentally we can spend it either way!

Dod


This is very much my brother in law's POV. He's adamant that dividend income is pretty useless when the share price has fallen by large amounts. However much I point out that I'm not selling so the current value is irrelevant, he isn't convinced.

Thinking along those lines is definitely valid for a growth strategy, but not for what I need, which is an annuity substitute.

Arb.

dspp
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Re: HYP1 is 18

#181745

Postby dspp » November 20th, 2018, 5:28 pm

Moderator Message:
Please can you all play nicely or this thread will get locked. If you cannot find something nice to say, then please stay silent. Thank you. dspp

Arborbridge
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Re: HYP1 is 18

#181791

Postby Arborbridge » November 20th, 2018, 9:01 pm

dspp wrote:
Moderator Message:
Please can you all play nicely or this thread will get locked. If you cannot find something nice to say, then please stay silent. Thank you. dspp


Although I agree with this sentiment, I'm at a loss to know which of us isn't playing nicely. That comment came after my own, so is it me? I think not. Then I read the last half a dozen posts and found nothing out of the ordinary which was beyond normal bounds. Maybe there's something much lower down but that's ancient history by now.

The problem with "general" moderating comments is that people will wonder as I did, "is it me?" without ever really knowing.

Arb.

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Re: HYP1 is 18

#181793

Postby Lootman » November 20th, 2018, 9:05 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
dspp wrote:
Moderator Message:
Please can you all play nicely or this thread will get locked. If you cannot find something nice to say, then please stay silent. Thank you. dspp


Although I agree with this sentiment, I'm at a loss to know which of us isn't playing nicely. That comment came after my own, so is it me? I think not. Then I read the last half a dozen posts and found nothing out of the ordinary which was beyond normal bounds. Maybe there's something much lower down but that's ancient history by now.

The problem with "general" moderating comments is that people will wonder as I did, "is it me?" without ever really knowing.

Arb.

Posts from Itsallaguess and Pickering were removed. Geng and I were warned. I am not aware that anything you wrote was a problem.

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Re: HYP1 is 18

#181799

Postby moorfield » November 20th, 2018, 9:49 pm

It's been a rip roaring and thought provoking edition this year. I'm looking forward to HYP1 is 19 already. Long may it continue.

Lootman
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Re: HYP1 is 18

#182042

Postby Lootman » November 21st, 2018, 8:48 pm

moorfield wrote:It's been a rip roaring and thought provoking edition this year. I'm looking forward to HYP1 is 19 already. Long may it continue.

I confidently predict that, however HYP1 does in 2019, it will be hailed as a success by its sponsor ;)

Moderator Message:
Let's not go there, chaps. And Lootman, please try and avoid inadvertent provocation -- even if accompanied by emoticons. -- MDW1954

Itsallaguess
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Re: HYP1 is 18

#182045

Postby Itsallaguess » November 21st, 2018, 9:02 pm

Lootman wrote:
moorfield wrote:
It's been a rip roaring and thought provoking edition this year. I'm looking forward to HYP1 is 19 already. Long may it continue.


I confidently predict that, however HYP1 does in 2019, it will be hailed as a success by its sponsor ;)


Well there's little doubt about that, and I do sincerely hope that he's got a technical success to continue hailing, but with that said, I also hope that we're again gracefully allowed to shine our big ol' torches into all the dark corners, and that we're also allowed to discuss what we collectively find there....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: HYP1 is 18

#182122

Postby Gengulphus » November 21st, 2018, 10:55 pm

Dod101 wrote:As I think you [Lootman] have said, money is fungible and to that extent, it is somewhat artificial to look at dividends as income and growth of the share price as capital accretion. Fundamentally we can spend it either way!

But in practice, one doesn't need to make trading decisions before spending dividends and one does need to make them before spending capital accretion. Especially for those who lack confidence (justifiably or not) in their own ability to make good "what to sell?" decisions, that means that while they are able to spend it either way, spending capital accretion is harder and more worrying in practice.

Gengulphus

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Re: HYP1 is 18

#182129

Postby Lootman » November 21st, 2018, 11:07 pm

Gengulphus wrote:
Dod101 wrote:As I think you [Lootman] have said, money is fungible and to that extent, it is somewhat artificial to look at dividends as income and growth of the share price as capital accretion. Fundamentally we can spend it either way!

But in practice, one doesn't need to make trading decisions before spending dividends and one does need to make them before spending capital accretion. Especially for those who lack confidence (justifiably or not) in their own ability to make good "what to sell?" decisions, that means that while they are able to spend it either way, spending capital accretion is harder and more worrying in practice.

Probably a topic that deserves its own topic. But I will offer these thoughts:

1) dod quotes me as saying money is fungible, which of course it is. A pound is a pound is a pound. But when I talk about that what I mean more explicitly is that one's needs for cash can be met by any positive cash flows, be they dividends, interest, rent, premia or gains.

2) Your idea, and pyad's idea, that it is ideal that one should live off only the income is of course desirable. But that is like saying that it is better to have more money. If you have a few million then you can clearly live off only the income. In that case you would not need HYP. An index fund would do.

3) Where it gets more interesting is where a person does not have that luxury, and instead retires on the basis that a HYP will give him or her a higher income. In that case maybe a HYP induces that person to retire too soon because of the higher yield. Then when that fails they end up selling off shares anyway.

4) The reality is that someone who cannot yet retire on an "income only" basis might still be able to retire on a drawdown basis.

IanTHughes
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Re: HYP1 is 18

#182170

Postby IanTHughes » November 22nd, 2018, 2:14 am

Lootman wrote:
Gengulphus wrote:But in practice, one doesn't need to make trading decisions before spending dividends and one does need to make them before spending capital accretion. Especially for those who lack confidence (justifiably or not) in their own ability to make good "what to sell?" decisions, that means that while they are able to spend it either way, spending capital accretion is harder and more worrying in practice.

Probably a topic that deserves its own topic. But I will offer these thoughts:

1) dod quotes me as saying money is fungible, which of course it is. A pound is a pound is a pound. But when I talk about that what I mean more explicitly is that one's needs for cash can be met by any positive cash flows, be they dividends, interest, rent, premia or gains.

What if your portfolio only shows losses? It is not gains that you receive funds from, it is asset sales. And I am sure you will agree, asset sales will mean a reduced forecast income, even a reduced forecast capital gain going forward.
Lootman wrote:4) The reality is that someone who cannot yet retire on an "income only" basis might still be able to retire on a drawdown basis.
How long are you going to live? I certainly do not know, and I know for sure that you do not know either!

To my understanding, HYP does not pretend to be the be all and end all of retirement financing. All it is saying is that, for whatever proportion of capital that one decides to invest in HYP, the income should grow over time. Why is that so difficult to understand?


Ian

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Re: HYP1 is 18

#182185

Postby jackdaww » November 22nd, 2018, 7:40 am

Gengulphus wrote:
Dod101 wrote:As I think you [Lootman] have said, money is fungible and to that extent, it is somewhat artificial to look at dividends as income and growth of the share price as capital accretion. Fundamentally we can spend it either way!


But in practice, one doesn't need to make trading decisions before spending dividends and one does need to make them before spending capital accretion. Especially for those who lack confidence (justifiably or not) in their own ability to make good "what to sell?" decisions, that means that while they are able to spend it either way, spending capital accretion is harder and more worrying in practice.

Gengulphus


============================

perhaps a mechanical system for selling could be devised - much as the mechanical system for top ups ?

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Re: HYP1 is 18

#182195

Postby Raptor » November 22nd, 2018, 8:23 am

Moderator Message:
This thread is now locked. Always good to see how the HYP1 has progressed against its intended aims. Brings up many thoughts as well. But now is the time to put it to bed for another year. Raptor.

BTW. If you wish to discuss further, then the Strategies board would be best placed.


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