So what are we buying today?

[TUK020]

WPP Yield
https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... py?epic=AV.
set timescale to 10 years.

Not quite 'fill yer boots' territory, but definitely into 'top up land'

How much do you want? over 7% and roughly two or three times WPP's usual yield!

If one is interested in WPP, this is in "about as good as it gets" territory.



Arb.

Sorry, me causing confusion. Have just topped up on WPP.
Link and 'fill yer boots' comment was on Aviva.
Trouble is my boots are already full of BATS, LGEN, VOD. Over the last couple of months I have been top slicing lower yielders such as AZN, BA, DGE to create more funds for the bargains on sale.
Been trading too much. need to sit on my hands for a while.

[johnstevens77]

Well, I topped Greene King on Friday, not before the price rose though.

Looking to top up an IT next week.

john

[Arborbridge]

Well, I topped Greene King on Friday, not before the price rose though.

Looking to top up an IT next week.

john

Ha! - in parallel universes. I topped up, but not before the price fell further
Arb

[jackdaww]

have been selling crest nicholson , babcock, and some non hyp shares.

have been buying bats , rio, south32 , phoenix, 3I , aviva , sdrc , new river retail .

in these conditions, with many good companies at what seem low valuations , i am happy to re balance.

[moorfield]

A useful trick in such times is to spot which boats have sunk furthest on the tide. I've been looking at yields relative to my benchmark, CTY (City of London IT), which replicates closely +/-0.1% the FTSE100 yield. On this measure the most oversold of my holdings since January, by a country mile (0.9x to 1.5x), is BATS.

[Wizard]

I know the quote, "when others get greedy get scared, when others get scared get greedy". Trouble is, with a number of disasters in HYP shares, my capital seriously butchered and so much uncertainty at the moment I can't help but join the flock of the scared.

Terry.

[moorfield]

I know the quote, "when others get greedy get scared, when others get scared get greedy". Trouble is, with a number of disasters in HYP shares, my capital seriously butchered and so much uncertainty at the moment I can't help but join the flock of the scared.

It's also useful keeping an eye on the FTSE100 volatility chart, the prominent spikes give a good indication of when the market is c******g itself.

https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tea ... =VFTSE:AEX

Clearly there may well be more chaos to come with next week's politics. I'm not advocating HYPsters try to "time" their purchases, but good opportunities arise when these spikes begin to subside.

[monabri]

I know the quote, "when others get greedy get scared, when others get scared get greedy". Trouble is, with a number of disasters in HYP shares, my capital seriously butchered and so much uncertainty at the moment I can't help but join the flock of the scared.

Terry.

Terry,
I think you started your HYP about the same time as I did (end of 2016, start of 2017). With dividends reinvested, I'm currently overall "down" on capital by approx 10%..but I have a portfolio that should yield a mid to high 5% income. The portfolio is quite diverse (containing not just HYP shares though). Performance was not helped by Carillion and Interserve (effectively a"write off") and a dalliance with Provident. Bad choices made early on in 2017.

I'm consoling myself with (i) calculating the number of years of income it will take to break even (1.7 years) , (2) Purchase costs have been a reasonable drag on the bottom line, (3) I've learned a bit ( hopefully) of where not to invest going forward (4) there are currently good (imho) opportunities to invest in shares for income ( not necessarily HYP ) which have a highish yield...(5) there's plenty of time (one hopes) to turn SS HYP_Titanic around. (6) current market conditions favour reinvestment of dividends for income.

Hopefully, in a couple of years time the gloom might have eased. ....but who knows?

[idpickering]

I know the quote, "when others get greedy get scared, when others get scared get greedy". Trouble is, with a number of disasters in HYP shares, my capital seriously butchered and so much uncertainty at the moment I can't help but join the flock of the scared.

Terry.

Terry,
I think you started your HYP about the same time as I did (end of 2016, start of 2017). With dividends reinvested, I'm currently overall "down" on capital by approx 10%..but I have a portfolio that should yield a mid to high 5% income. The portfolio is quite diverse (containing not just HYP shares though). Performance was not helped by Carillion and Interserve (effectively a"write off") and a dalliance with Provident. Bad choices made early on in 2017.

I'm consoling myself with (i) calculating the number of years of income it will take to break even (1.7 years) , (2) Purchase costs have been a reasonable drag on the bottom line, (3) I've learned a bit ( hopefully) of where not to invest going forward (4) there are currently good (imho) opportunities to invest in shares for income ( not necessarily HYP ) which have a highish yield...(5) there's plenty of time (one hopes) to turn SS HYP_Titanic around. (6) current market conditions favour reinvestment of dividends for income.

Hopefully, in a couple of years time the gloom might have eased. ....but who knows?

Wise words indeed monabri. The bottom line as a HYPer though is, it's an income strategy, and that's where our focus should be. Although, being human, capital value falls even I find uncomfortable.

Ian.

[Wizard]

I know the quote, "when others get greedy get scared, when others get scared get greedy". Trouble is, with a number of disasters in HYP shares, my capital seriously butchered and so much uncertainty at the moment I can't help but join the flock of the scared.

Terry.

Terry,
I think you started your HYP about the same time as I did (end of 2016, start of 2017). With dividends reinvested, I'm currently overall "down" on capital by approx 10%..but I have a portfolio that should yield a mid to high 5% income. The portfolio is quite diverse (containing not just HYP shares though). Performance was not helped by Carillion and Interserve (effectively a"write off") and a dalliance with Provident. Bad choices made early on in 2017.

I'm consoling myself with (i) calculating the number of years of income it will take to break even (1.7 years) , (2) Purchase costs have been a reasonable drag on the bottom line, (3) I've learned a bit ( hopefully) of where not to invest going forward (4) there are currently good (imho) opportunities to invest in shares for income ( not necessarily HYP ) which have a highish yield...(5) there's plenty of time (one hopes) to turn SS HYP_Titanic around. (6) current market conditions favour reinvestment of dividends for income.

Hopefully, in a couple of years time the gloom might have eased. ....but who knows?

Monabri

You are right on timing, which I think has turned out to be a bad place to start. I am pretty busy at the moment so do not know the number for my own capital precisely, but with every share but one* showing red ink and one total wipe I doubt it will be good. Of course, it may have been even worse with other share picks, but waiting another 1.7 years to get back to square one is not exactly a ringing endorsement .

I think your point 4. and 6. are basically the same and in many ways this is where my concern is. With hindsight it will no doubt be the case that there are some bargains around at the moment, but there will probably be some value traps as well. I am afraid I do not feel particularly comfortable or confident in trying to sift one from the other.

But nonetheless, thank you for the encouraging words.

Terry.

* The only share in the green is Petrofac and strickly that should not be count in my HYP I suspect, as I bought it after the share price collapse and many would say that was a recovery play. But as my motive was to buy future income at a cheap price rather than to harvest any capital gain I include it.

[Arborbridge]

I know the quote, "when others get greedy get scared, when others get scared get greedy". Trouble is, with a number of disasters in HYP shares, my capital seriously butchered and so much uncertainty at the moment I can't help but join the flock of the scared.

Terry.

Unless one knows what one is really doing, better advice might be: "when others get scared, get scared". Mrs Thatcher once said, you can't buck the market, and this is the whole rationale behind momentum investing and charting.

However, if one is depending on the income, a different philosophy needs to be employed: the more laid back attitude of HYPing. Zen investment. Whatever criticisms one might have, the examples of HYP1 and TJH shows it is possible to perform good enough for income requirers by being more sanguine than to follow the market. Follow the market perhaps has some relevance for pot-builders as it will generally keep you safe, but for income in my view SI seems more appropriate.

Arb

[Wizard]

I know the quote, "when others get greedy get scared, when others get scared get greedy". Trouble is, with a number of disasters in HYP shares, my capital seriously butchered and so much uncertainty at the moment I can't help but join the flock of the scared.

Terry.

Terry,
I think you started your HYP about the same time as I did (end of 2016, start of 2017). With dividends reinvested, I'm currently overall "down" on capital by approx 10%..but I have a portfolio that should yield a mid to high 5% income. The portfolio is quite diverse (containing not just HYP shares though). Performance was not helped by Carillion and Interserve (effectively a"write off") and a dalliance with Provident. Bad choices made early on in 2017.

I'm consoling myself with (i) calculating the number of years of income it will take to break even (1.7 years) , (2) Purchase costs have been a reasonable drag on the bottom line, (3) I've learned a bit ( hopefully) of where not to invest going forward (4) there are currently good (imho) opportunities to invest in shares for income ( not necessarily HYP ) which have a highish yield...(5) there's plenty of time (one hopes) to turn SS HYP_Titanic around. (6) current market conditions favour reinvestment of dividends for income.

Hopefully, in a couple of years time the gloom might have eased. ....but who knows?

Wise words indeed monabri. The bottom line as a HYPer though is, it's an income strategy, and that's where our focus should be. Although, being human, capital value falls even I find uncomfortable.

Ian.

My bold.

Ian

You need to be careful not to "double count" the income. Monabri is looking at capital including reinvested income and is looking forwards in the same way considering how long it will take him to recover his capital losses. So his income is clearly not being used as income, so to speak, but is being used to grow his capital (or in this case offset the shrinkage in his capital). So to simply automatically trot out that it is an income strategy, implying that the income is there to live on, is not in this case wholly valid.

Also, consider that some of those HYP disasters I referred to have an impact on income as well as capital, indeed I was not really referring to capital loss in that point as it is covered by the next one. Wiped out shares will not pay a dividend again and cutters may well take a while to recover.

While I do not normally favour looking at yield on purchase cost it does have one benefit. When there are big capital losses (or indeed wipe outs) it gives some indication of a comparison wiith other safer strategies such as gilts (but that discussion is not for here).

Terry.

[Wizard]

I know the quote, "when others get greedy get scared, when others get scared get greedy". Trouble is, with a number of disasters in HYP shares, my capital seriously butchered and so much uncertainty at the moment I can't help but join the flock of the scared.

Terry.

Unless one knows what one is really doing, better advice might be: "when others get scared, get scared". Mrs Thatcher once said, you can't buck the market, and this is the whole rationale behind momentum investing and charting.

However, if one is depending on the income, a different philosophy needs to be employed: the more laid back attitude of HYPing. Zen investment. Whatever criticisms one might have, the examples of HYP1 and TJH shows it is possible to perform good enough for income requirers by being more sanguine than to follow the market. Follow the market perhaps has some relevance for pot-builders as it will generally keep you safe, but for income in my view SI seems more appropriate.

Arb

Fair comment, but I think what you are teeing up here is a debate as to whether HYP is as useful for building a pot ahead of needing the income, as for harvesting income. But that is not for here.

Terry.

[WessexBoy]

Just been looking at WPP:

1. That recent increase in yield above 5% seems to be closely linked to the fall in the share price
2. Need to understand the strategy of the new management

[Arborbridge]

Fair comment, but I think what you are teeing up here is a debate as to whether HYP is as useful for building a pot ahead of needing the income, as for harvesting income. But that is not for here.

Terry.

Not intending to start an OT debate: Just thinking aloud