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Enlightenment sought - GFRD

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TUK020
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Enlightenment sought - GFRD

#186208

Postby TUK020 » December 11th, 2018, 5:52 pm

Share price on Galliford Try has plummeted to the point that the forecast yield is 12.9%, on a PE of 4.1, and yet with a forecast divi cover of 2.

Usually at this point the shorters are all over a share like this, like flies over a big job. This would indiacte buckets of bad news that are seeping into the public domain (see kier).

However, in this case only one shorter at 1.1% of shares on page 15 of the shorttracker.

What gives? It doesn't add up

johnhemming
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Re: Enlightenment sought - GFRD

#186219

Postby johnhemming » December 11th, 2018, 7:20 pm

Brexit uncertainty will be a problem for uk exposed stocks. I would think this is part of it.

Lootman
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Re: Enlightenment sought - GFRD

#186221

Postby Lootman » December 11th, 2018, 7:27 pm

The ability to short a share is dependent on the ability to borrow stock. That's usually not a problem for the bigger names, but could be in the case of less liquid issues.

Also, a shorter has to cover the cost of any dividends. Assuming GFRD continues to actually pay out that high level of dividends, then that's an expensive rate of interest for the loan.

daveh
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Re: Enlightenment sought - GFRD

#186224

Postby daveh » December 11th, 2018, 7:33 pm

AWPR costs. Over budget by at least 250m, are they going to have to announce further write offs to cover this than have already been announced? Add that to Brexit and Corbyn worries and that probably accounts for the share price dive.

monabri
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Re: Enlightenment sought - GFRD

#186227

Postby monabri » December 11th, 2018, 7:49 pm

The AWPR contract over run lead to the 1 for 3 rights issue...so extra shares in circulation.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 32151.html

The current divi is AFTER a divi cut!


"The long-awaited AWPR that circumnavigates Aberdeen city centre is set to open this week"

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/ne ... this-week/

I would imagine that if is a Carillion / Interserve effect...along with Kier....just bad sentiment ( rightly?)

AndyPandy
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Re: Enlightenment sought - GFRD

#186243

Postby AndyPandy » December 11th, 2018, 10:03 pm

Steven Teagle spent about £55K on shares yesterday.

(Chief Executive of Partnerships and Regeneration, Member of the Executive Board)

FWIW, I topped up this morning. The Rights issue has given them some financial headroom and they are also claiming against the Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route Client, which might result in some cash back.

I don't think Luni's Danger Zone even begins to describe the current DY, however, covered 2x before exceptionals and with hopefully some closure on the AWPR this coming year, I'm happy to sit tight with these.

monabri
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Re: Enlightenment sought - GFRD

#186249

Postby monabri » December 11th, 2018, 10:53 pm

Coming back to the recent rights issue.

Details of the Rights Issue

· 1 for 3 fully underwritten rights issue of 27,741,204 new ordinary shares of 50 pence each in the capital of Galliford Try (the "New Ordinary Shares") to raise gross proceeds of approximately £157.6 million.

· The issue price of 568 pence per Rights Issue Share represents a 32.8 per cent. discount to the theoretical ex-rights price based on the closing middle-market price as derived from the Stock Exchange Daily Official List of 937.5 pence for an Ordinary Share on 26 March 2018 (being the last Business Day prior to the date of this announcement).

Current sp is 595p.

So it's not a case of a straight fall from 937p.


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