The Lemon Fool

Wizard wrote:Can't recall any shops a few years ago selljng nothing but conventional cigarettes

You never heard of a tobacconists?

StepOne wrote:

Wizard wrote:Can't recall any shops a few years ago selljng nothing but conventional cigarettes

You never heard of a tobacconists?

Good point. I do and as a young boy was quite interested in all the different pipes, cigars and suchlike on display. Luckily, I never caught the habit.

The fact that tobacconists nearly all morfed into general newsagents or corner shops probably supports what I'm saying: that vaping shops will eventually pass into history. These days, I recall only seeing "tobac" in foreign lands, though I suppose a few may still exist here.

Arb.

StepOne wrote:

Wizard wrote:Can't recall any shops a few years ago selljng nothing but conventional cigarettes

You never heard of a tobacconists?

I read about them in books when I was a child but think I only ever saw one, and that was certainly more than "a few years ago". You must even older than I am

Terry.

Edit: I found this interesting enough to have a look and I stand corrected, they do still exist and there is even still an Association of Independent Tobacco Specialists. There is one in my closest big shopping town, but I have never come across it as they are hidden away in a low rent ancient shopping arcade, I guess if you smoke a pipe or cigars they are a destination store, so it does not matter that they are off the beaten track. Apparently they also sell snuff.

I really thought the tobacco shares would rise a fair bit today; just as well I was otherwise engaged as I might well have topped up, thinking they couldn't go any further down but BATs is down over 3% and IMB over 3.5% . How much is due to Brexit developments and how much to US concerns, do you suppose, or is there another reason?

Interesting that both baccys are down roughly the same percentage today when the mentholated products issue in the USA affected BATS to a greater extent.

I wonder if the link up of Altria & "Juul" is having a negative influence (see above...in these postings). However, both BATS & IMB have similar products when it comes to "vaping".


IMB at 2343p and a prospective divi of 187.79p+10% uplift would be a yield of 8.8%... ... ...

Arborbridge wrote:The fact that tobacconists nearly all morfed into general newsagents or corner shops probably supports what I'm saying: that vaping shops will eventually pass into history. These days, I recall only seeing "tobac" in foreign lands, though I suppose a few may still exist here.

Playing Devil's Advocate here (as I don't hold) but why doesn't the same logic apply to 'Big Tobacco' itself?

IMB now down 5.25% today and BAT not far behind. I might need to go out and buy some fags, having given up several years ago, or even try cannabis for the first time. My nerves are beginning to jangle.

Breelander wrote:

Arborbridge wrote:The fact that tobacconists nearly all morfed into general newsagents or corner shops probably supports what I'm saying: that vaping shops will eventually pass into history. These days, I recall only seeing "tobac" in foreign lands, though I suppose a few may still exist here.

Playing Devil's Advocate here (as I don't hold) but why doesn't the same logic apply to 'Big Tobacco' itself?

I think I meant "morphed" !

Well, we mustn't mix up the retailing of products via little shops (which is what this particular recent discussion was about) and the manufacture of those products. Big tobacco was never about retailing directly, but about tying up the industrial process.

Anyhow, it's quite possible tobacco smoking will pass into history too. The only question remains whether the big tobacco companies have the adaptability and industrial muscle to tie up the new vaping market: otherwise the could go teh same way as the original Pony Express.

Arb.

I was sorely tempted to buy more, but I am just not happy about buying into a continually sinking share price. I'd rather sit on my hands for a while and see what happens. Even if the prices begin to rise, we are hardly missing out much in terms of income by waiting.

Arb.

Arborbridge wrote:I was sorely tempted to buy more, but I am just not happy about buying into a continually sinking share price. I'd rather sit on my hands for a while and see what happens. Even if the prices begin to rise, we are hardly missing out much in terms of income by waiting.

Arb.

I'm of a similar opinion as yourself Arb. I've gobbed off a lot in this thread about topping up BATS, but I think a better idea would be to take a step back, rather than trying to be clever grasping at what appears to be a falling knife. There are other options out there.

Ian.

idpickering wrote:
I'm of a similar opinion as yourself Arb. I've gobbed off a lot in this thread about topping up BATS, but I think a better idea would be to take a step back, rather than trying to be clever grasping at what appears to be a falling knife. There are other options out there.

Ian.

Actually, most shares are falling knives at present - though maybe not falling so hard as BAT. I think with the "B" situation, everything is going to be fluid for a while and there's not a lot to lose by exercising caution. I know markets can turn quickly, but I really doubt that for the few percent in top-ups it is worth worrying about losing the edge off the yield.

On top of my ranking for a topup is actually SLA, and the share price in that case seems to have (for the moment) stopped its downward plummet.

It's incredible to think how far these have fallen so quickly.

My HYP may as well be named Falling Knife Portfolio.

Grid
Lloyds
Vodafone
Imperial
UU

Are all looking pretty sick right now

And BATs which I added thinking I was being clever is down 15 percent in a month!

Walrus wrote:It's incredible to think how far these have fallen so quickly.

My HYP may as well be named Falling Knife Portfolio.

Grid
Lloyds
Vodafone
Imperial
UU

Are all looking pretty sick right now

And BATs which I added thinking I was being clever is down 15 percent in a month!

But... with no effect on your income so far. Always think on that when times seem bleak.

Arborbridge wrote:

Walrus wrote:It's incredible to think how far these have fallen so quickly.

My HYP may as well be named Falling Knife Portfolio.

Grid
Lloyds
Vodafone
Imperial
UU

Are all looking pretty sick right now

And BATs which I added thinking I was being clever is down 15 percent in a month!

But... with no effect on your income so far. Always think on that when times seem bleak.

Agreed. It's just disconcerting when they're your own picks rather than an investment managers.

Don't be too critical of your ' stock picking'...Woodford's equity income fund is over 8% IMB.

The answer to my own question earlier in today's posts on this thread would appear to be the following, from ADVFN's evening markets bulletin:

"Broker notes accounted for a lot of the share price action, with Imperial Brands and British American Tobacco among the worst performers on the FTSE 100 as Cowen cut its stance on both stocks to 'market perform' from 'outperform'."

Who the heck is Cowen and why should its cutting its stance from outperform to perform result in such massive s.p. falls? I am really beginning to lose patience with stockmarket investing which now seems to be entirely governed by algorithm controlled gambling rather than any rationality. I tend to ignore analysts' forecasts but presumably someone is listening and acting, or is it just the market makers? Which is chicken and which is egg? It would be interesting to know what the actual trading activity looked like today. Maybe I'll try to look it up when I have eaten.

Here is a link to an amplification from Proactive Investors of the Cowen analysts' views on the various tobacco companies:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/co ... 12080.html

Enjoy!

According to HL's website, someone sold over £26m worth of IMB at 16.35 today. I wonder who that was. I've suddenly lost my appetite.

Bouleversee wrote:According to HL's website, someone sold over £26m worth of IMB at 16.35 today. I wonder who that was. I've suddenly lost my appetite.

That was the uncrossing trade value....

07-Jan-19 16:35: 272,330.001,116,533 Buy* 2,326.502,327.5026.015M UT

Bouleversee wrote:According to HL's website, someone sold over £26m worth of IMB at 16.35 today. I wonder who that was. I've suddenly lost my appetite.

It is not a 'someone', it is an amalgamation of many smaller trades. This happens every day at 16:35, and to every ft100 share too. It's the SETS auction, otherwise known as the Uncrossing Trade. The price achieved in the auction is the official closing price. A similar auction is held just before the market opens to set the opening price.

Scheduled SETS auctions;

Opening Auctions – Every day from 7:50 to 8:00 (Establishes the opening price of a stock).
Intraday midday Auction – Every day from 12:00 to 12:02 (Can run until 12:16 if the stock moves a certain percentage during the initial auction)
Closing Auctions – Every day from 16:30 to 16:35 (Establishes the closing price of a stock).

https://help.ii.co.uk/system/templates/ ... ewContext=