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2018 - How did we do?

For discussion of the practicalities of setting up and operating income-portfolios which follow the HYP Group Guidelines. READ Guidelines before posting
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IanTHughes
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187399

Postby IanTHughes » December 17th, 2018, 10:58 am

jackdaww wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:As I understand it, HYP advocates listing shares in descending yield order and selecting the first share that passes muster for sustainability of the dividend as well as providing appropriate diversification. In other words: "HYP advocates the selection of the highest sustainable yield available, subject to appropriate diversification".

where does that understanding arise from ? (my L/C)


https://seekingalpha.com/article/842731 ... ing?page=2

•Rank the large-cap universe (i.e. FTSE100 or maybe the FTSE 350 shares - usually with a market capitalisation above £1 bilion) by descending forecast yield.


Ian

OLTB
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187406

Postby OLTB » December 17th, 2018, 11:20 am

Morning all.

As a subscriber to pyad's newsletter, I will just comment that a top up is recommended to be for those HYP constituents whose value is below average holding for the HYP as a whole.

Therefore, for a HYP constructed of 18 constituents, with a value of £100,000, any top-up would be for the company offering the highest yield, valued at less than £5,555 (as long as it still meets your 'buy' or 'hold' criteria).

This way the HYP shouldn't get too unbalanced.

Cheers, OLTB.

Raptor
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187411

Postby Raptor » December 17th, 2018, 11:31 am

StepOne wrote:My HYP includes S32 (spun out from BLT) - so I take it that no longer qualifies for this board either?


I take it that you missed this thread and post

viewtopic.php?p=187186#p187186

Raptor.

Arborbridge
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187415

Postby Arborbridge » December 17th, 2018, 11:42 am

Raptor wrote:
StepOne wrote:My HYP includes S32 (spun out from BLT) - so I take it that no longer qualifies for this board either?


I take it that you missed this thread and post

viewtopic.php?p=187186#p187186

Raptor.


At the risk of highjacking my own thread! - this also answers Moorfield's point:
"And neither has Verizon (VZ.), for example.
So portfolios containing that are also not welcome here on Arb's thread, right?"

WRONG

VZ was forcibly spun out, so the hapless holder can still include it in a HYP: it's called "market trading". See the post quoted by Raptor. I sold VZ and S32 as I can't be doing with such complications and small dollops

Arb.

jackdaww
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187419

Postby jackdaww » December 17th, 2018, 11:45 am

IanTHughes wrote:
jackdaww wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:As I understand it, HYP advocates listing shares in descending yield order and selecting the first share that passes muster for sustainability of the dividend as well as providing appropriate diversification. In other words: "HYP advocates the selection of the highest sustainable yield available, subject to appropriate diversification".

where does that understanding arise from ? (my L/C)


https://seekingalpha.com/article/842731 ... ing?page=2

•Rank the large-cap universe (i.e. FTSE100 or maybe the FTSE 350 shares - usually with a market capitalisation above £1 bilion) by descending forecast yield.


Ian


====================

the stockopedia article you refer to is an interpretation -- one of many .

it does not mention top up's , nor did the articles of 2000.

:)

TUK020
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187433

Postby TUK020 » December 17th, 2018, 12:30 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
I never imagined I would be kicking a hornets' net. We started a similar thread last year and there was zero controversy AFAIK. Let's keep to the subject of abstracting our results with a brief note if necessary which might help*, and leave it at that.
Otherwise all we have is a ramble which is already difficult to negotiate, rather than an abstract for reference.


Arb


Just taken a look at the capital values of the whole portfolio (the major part of which conforms to Pyadic HYP), and decided that I shall "abstract my results" with the aid of a bottle of Cotes de Rhone tonight

Wombled Off of TOnbridge Wells

Darka
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187434

Postby Darka » December 17th, 2018, 12:39 pm

It's a shame to see so much bickering on what could have been a very useful post/thread.

I personally look forward to seeing how others have done as it helps me validate how I feel about the HYP strategy during good and more importantly during bad times. Likewise I look forward to seeing the end of year reports from everyone as I find it interesting.

Seeing the long term trends in income/capital from those of you who have run a HYP for many years (I'm only on my 10th year) is fascinating and I would like to thank everyone who has posted and shared.

I will post an update in the New Year for my portfolio, I am considering unitising from January for the sake of comparison purposes but I keep saying that every year and haven't done it yet - although now and then I do wish I'd done it from the start :)

regards,
Darka

Arborbridge
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187437

Postby Arborbridge » December 17th, 2018, 12:51 pm

TUK020 wrote:Just taken a look at the capital values of the whole portfolio (the major part of which conforms to Pyadic HYP), and decided that I shall "abstract my results" with the aid of a bottle of Cotes de Rhone tonight

Wombled Off of TOnbridge Wells


Truly in the spirit of Christmas, and of HYP. Bravo! :P

idpickering
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187439

Postby idpickering » December 17th, 2018, 1:00 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
TUK020 wrote:Just taken a look at the capital values of the whole portfolio (the major part of which conforms to Pyadic HYP), and decided that I shall "abstract my results" with the aid of a bottle of Cotes de Rhone tonight

Wombled Off of TOnbridge Wells


Truly in the spirit of Christmas, and of HYP. Bravo! :P


He'll be very HYP after drinking that. ;)

Ian.

Raptor
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187441

Postby Raptor » December 17th, 2018, 1:10 pm

I normally do my checks at the end of the financial year, but just tried to modify it to do year to date. I wish I hadn't and will now join TUK020 in opening my own Cotes Du Rhone. Have unitised many years back so as to compare apples with apples.

If I can stomach looking again will post my results of my HYP shares.

Raptor.

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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187455

Postby Raptor » December 17th, 2018, 1:58 pm

OK. Not as bad as I first thought as found a couple of errors in my spreadsheet (normally only check thoroughly in April). The yield has not met the "forecast" which was 6.9% but has actually matched 2017 at 6.3%. However price per unit has dropped 19%.

I did notice that the "actual" dividend income from HYP dropped 19%. However, that was expected due to "capital" changes and (OTT for HYP) my move to put more into IT's. Overall though I see that I came out not far off equal between 2017 and 2018 because of the movement in income (which surprised me!) for the whole portfolio.

DISCLAIMER. There may be more "errors" in my figures as got sidetracked by my barber arriving to cut hair.

Raptor.

IanTHughes
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187462

Postby IanTHughes » December 17th, 2018, 2:19 pm

jackdaww wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:
jackdaww wrote:where does that understanding arise from ? (my L/C)


https://seekingalpha.com/article/842731 ... ing?page=2

•Rank the large-cap universe (i.e. FTSE100 or maybe the FTSE 350 shares - usually with a market capitalisation above £1 bilion) by descending forecast yield.

the stockopedia article you refer to is an interpretation -- one of many .

it does not mention top up's , nor did the articles of 2000.

What other interpretation is possible? "Rank shares by ascending forecast yield" perhaps? Or how about alphabetically?


Ian

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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187469

Postby Raptor » December 17th, 2018, 2:58 pm

Moderator Message:
Posts are wandering far off topic. Can we keep to Ops post. Create a new thread on the appropriate board if you wish to continue. Thanks. Off topic posts will now be deleted. Raptor.

jackdaww
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187473

Postby jackdaww » December 17th, 2018, 3:08 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Although I don't count my chickens until they are in my account, there are some broad indications of how the end of the year will look for the ArbHYP.


As for capital, well as Wizard and others have pointed out, that's quite a different story!
2017 unit price ended at 138.65, whereas the current price is 122.1, down 11.9%. I suppose one might be grateful for that when you consider the epic turmoil in politics at present.


Arb.


====================================

re the OP.

one of the founding pyad HYP tenets ---

Do not worry about the fluctuations in the underlying capital value of your shares that are certain to occur.


8-)

Arborbridge
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187596

Postby Arborbridge » December 18th, 2018, 8:15 am

jackdaww wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Although I don't count my chickens until they are in my account, there are some broad indications of how the end of the year will look for the ArbHYP.


As for capital, well as Wizard and others have pointed out, that's quite a different story!
2017 unit price ended at 138.65, whereas the current price is 122.1, down 11.9%. I suppose one might be grateful for that when you consider the epic turmoil in politics at present.


Arb.


====================================

re the OP.

one of the founding pyad HYP tenets ---

Do not worry about the fluctuations in the underlying capital value of your shares that are certain to occur.


8-)


There's a difference between worrying about it and the desire to report accurate figures to show what is happening. It's up to the individual reader whether they think this is "worrying" and what it shows about how successful HYP is. MY aim on the HYP board is to lay out my results as transparently as possible.

From my POV, I'm not diverting from the main thrust of my retirement strategy which (for the moment) is HYP plus IT income plus income OEICS with a few other growth items tucked away. It's a great luxury not to have to worry about fluctuations in capital, which is at the heart of the Zen of HYP - and which onlookers might find extraordinary.

In the wider sense, of course, capital is still important, because if it ever reduced to zero, there could be NO income - but over the shorter temporal scale one just has faith that everntually things will come right for both one's HYP and the system as a whole. If not, we are all up the creek without a paddle, regardless of investment strategy.

Arb.

idpickering
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187609

Postby idpickering » December 18th, 2018, 9:10 am

Arborbridge wrote:
There's a difference between worrying about it and the desire to report accurate figures to show what is happening. It's up to the individual reader whether they think this is "worrying" and what it shows about how successful HYP is. MY aim on the HYP board is to lay out my results as transparently as possible.

From my POV, I'm not diverting from the main thrust of my retirement strategy which (for the moment) is HYP plus IT income plus income OEICS with a few other growth items tucked away. It's a great luxury not to have to worry about fluctuations in capital, which is at the heart of the Zen of HYP - and which onlookers might find extraordinary.

In the wider sense, of course, capital is still important, because if it ever reduced to zero, there could be NO income - but over the shorter temporal scale one just has faith that everntually things will come right for both one's HYP and the system as a whole. If not, we are all up the creek without a paddle, regardless of investment strategy.

Arb.


Well said Arb. Have a rec sir!.

Ian.

IanTHughes
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187621

Postby IanTHughes » December 18th, 2018, 10:14 am

Arborbridge wrote:In the wider sense, of course, capital is still important, because if it ever reduced to zero, there could be NO income

To my mind, you have this the wrong way around.

It is expected earnings reducing to zero that will mean there is no capital value. A reduction in "Market Value" is the result of reduced expectations, not their precursor


Ian

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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187685

Postby Arborbridge » December 18th, 2018, 12:51 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:In the wider sense, of course, capital is still important, because if it ever reduced to zero, there could be NO income

To my mind, you have this the wrong way around.

It is expected earnings reducing to zero that will mean there is no capital value. A reduction in "Market Value" is the result of reduced expectations, not their precursor


Ian


Whatever 8-)
But I didn't say earnings and it's perfectly possible to have companies that do not pay a dividend but have a high share price and high earnings. When I said income, I was thining of my income from dividends, so perhaps I should have said dividends.

jackdaww
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187741

Postby jackdaww » December 18th, 2018, 3:41 pm

my dividend income has gone up a few percent from 2017 .

this in spite of sitting on a lot more cash , awaiting a downturn i thought may be coming .

capital is way down , partly due to market falls, and a few bad investments , sold at a loss.

not forgetting also the capital drop each time a dividend comes in , all else being equal.

now reinvesting drip by drip into the likes of BATS , 3i grp , RIO , phoenix , aviva , NRR and RDSB .

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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#187744

Postby bluedonkey » December 18th, 2018, 3:49 pm

Bear with me. If I did unitise, I believe that my income per unit would be down, probably similar to funduffer. Carillion, Interserve, and Provident Financial all contributed in the wrong way to that. In past years there have been dividend cuts to various shares I own, e.g. Tesco etc., but the overall income of the portfolio seemed to just shrug it off and keep climbing. Too many cutters in one year in 2018.

Randomness, it's going to happen. Here's hoping that reversion to the mean is a ladder rather than a snake in 2019.


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