dividends CAAG

[Arborbridge]

Well that was "fun" I thought I'd compile a table of my HYP shares' dividend growth rates, or otherwise, with percentages taken from the dividenddata website. The negatives have (at the risk of my going slightly crossed eyed) been put in italics, and at the bottom are the averages for the HYP and RPI for comparison.

The inital point of the exercise was to aid comparison with any new candidates I might be considering, as well at to highlight any bad beasties, of which there are plenty. Despite those beasties, the average CAAGs seem be just ahead of RPI - whether that's true of the HYP as a whole naturally depends on the weighting and longevity of each share within it.

I won't do this too often - it's too much of a slog - but it was an interesting project.



Figures lifted from the website may not, of course, not be entirely accurate, but I'm sanguine about that. Decisions would be based on a variety of inputs. Checking the case of Admiral, I notice specials were included, though not for other companies AFAIK.

Arb.

[Dod101]

Very interesting results as well, Arb. Thank you.

I see Admiral, BATS, GNK, IGG (who?), Imperial Brands, INF (another who?), Legal & General, National Grid, PNN (yet another who?) Schroders, Unilever and Vodafone as very good. The others patchy to say the least. Apart from the who? shares and GNK I hold all of these, I am glad to say. I like shares with a steady increase in the dividend over the years, much more than I do a high yield as such, although that is nice as well.

Phoenix and Chesnara are both to me serious omissions, as they have both a high current yield and decent growth in the dividends.

Dod

[kiloran]

Checking the case of Admiral, I notice specials were included, though not for other companies AFAIK.
Arb.

I suspect that's because the Admiral 'Special' dividend is not really special at all, being paid every year. I think Dividend Data tends to ignore one-off specials

--kiloran

[Arborbridge]

Very interesting results as well, Arb. Thank you.

I see Admiral, BATS, GNK, IGG (who?), Imperial Brands, INF (another who?), Legal & General, National Grid, PNN (yet another who?) Schroders, Unilever and Vodafone as very good. The others patchy to say the least. Apart from the who? shares and GNK I hold all of these, I am glad to say. I like shares with a steady increase in the dividend over the years, much more than I do a high yield as such, although that is nice as well.

Phoenix and Chesnara are both to me serious omissions, as they have both a high current yield and decent growth in the dividends.

Dod

Hi Dod, thanks for your comments. Chesnara was omitted because the data isn't covered the website (market cap too small, I think) although it is in my HYP. Phoenix was omitted as it isn't in my HYP but it is in my wife's HYP. So, actually we have them both, but they just weren't mentioned.

IGG is IG index, INF is informa Group, PNN is Pennon. Sorry not to have put names in. Informa, BTW was an acquired share when another company (UBM) was taken over. Although the yield is too low, the history seems quite good so I'm keeping it for the moment.

As regards the patchy ones: food for thought whether to axe them or just stay with the principle of diversity and LTBH. I'm averse to churning but I've no doubt things will continue evolve over the years. Last year there were quite enough changes to be going on with.

The better shares you've mentioned might well in line for extra funds in preference to others as they roll to the top of the rankings of HYPTUSS. In other words, these histories will become an input like any other to be pickered over at the appropriate time.

Arb.

[tjh290633]

Arb, those are obviously the shares which you hold. I have been compiling my own record of dividends per share for my holdings, but just have annual changes and include special dividends. I have had to start afresh in some cases where rights issues or returns of capital have led to the dividend being rebased. Also one case (TATE) of a change in year end after an extended accounting period.

I just wonder how such changes are accounted for in the data which you have researched?

TJH

[monabri]

Arb, those are obviously the shares which you hold. I have been compiling my own record of dividends per share for my holdings, but just have annual changes and include special dividends. I have had to start afresh in some cases where rights issues or returns of capital have led to the dividend being rebased. Also one case (TATE) of a change in year end after an extended accounting period.

I just wonder how such changes are accounted for in the data which you have researched?

TJH

With reference to GFRD as an example ( where there was a 1 for 3 Rights Issue last year, it would seem that the historical dividends are adjusted in the calculation of the compound divi growth rate.

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... ?epic=GFRD

Dividenddata presents an option to view the unadjusted data (look for the words "Unadjusted dividends - See GFRD unadjusted dividend data"). The actual dividends paid a few years ago have been adjusted ( reduced ) - one can see this on toggling between the adjusted and non adjusted data.

[Dod101]

In the reducing universe of HYP I at least cannot afford to ignore potential candidates so I must take advantage of Arb's work to take a look at those shares which have a good record but which I do not hold. I enjoy the research and if I can find a new candidate or two so much the better.

Dod

[StepOne]

I thought I'd compile a table of my HYP shares' dividend growth rates, or otherwise, with percentages taken from the dividenddata website.

Was this done in GB pence, or in declared currency?

[Arborbridge]

Arb, those are obviously the shares which you hold. I have been compiling my own record of dividends per share for my holdings, but just have annual changes and include special dividends. I have had to start afresh in some cases where rights issues or returns of capital have led to the dividend being rebased. Also one case (TATE) of a change in year end after an extended accounting period.

I just wonder how such changes are accounted for in the data which you have researched?

TJH

The answer is "I don't know" !
I am gullible enough to believe the dividend data website has thought these things through* and can almost certainly do it more competently than I. I do also have my own CAAG rates over 5 years in my XIRR spreadsheet - against which I will certainly check if needed for decision making - but I knocked the table up this way as it was easy to do.

*judging by some of the yield curves I've seen, they look pretty smooth so I think they allow for returns and consols etc.

Arb.

[Arborbridge]

I thought I'd compile a table of my HYP shares' dividend growth rates, or otherwise, with percentages taken from the dividenddata website.

Was this done in GB pence, or in declared currency?

Just checked RDSB and HSBA and both are in declared currency.

Arb.

[monabri]

In the reducing universe of HYP I at least cannot afford to ignore potential candidates so I must take advantage of Arb's work to take a look at those shares which have a good record but which I do not hold. I enjoy the research and if I can find a new candidate or two so much the better.
Dod

A few months ago, I had a good trawl through the dividend growth rates presented in dividenddata. The companies I identified as "growers" were Legal& General, Imperial Brands, WPP (who promptly froze their dividend recently!) & Direct Line Group - Perhaps I should have included the new & hopefully improved Aviva as well?


(edit : I should add, I was interested in long term , 15 years + , total dividends return interms of accumulated pounds sterling!)

"Runners up" were ITV, Greene King,BATS and (Off-Topic) HFEL.

The ones I discounted on growth rates were

- HSBA (although I do hold simply for the ~6% yield)
- Unilever (although a historical good dividend growth rate, the accrued divis (*) over the next 15 years were offset by the high initial price/low yield)
- Admiral Group (same story as HSBA, bought for the yield and the (non) special dividend - however, I'm hoping that we will see an improvement)
- CTY & MYI - although I hold MYI for other reasons.



(* modelled in Excel - of course I have no idea of the future!)

[Arborbridge]

In the reducing universe of HYP I at least cannot afford to ignore potential candidates so I must take advantage of Arb's work to take a look at those shares which have a good record but which I do not hold. I enjoy the research and if I can find a new candidate or two so much the better.

Dod

I'd value your input if you find worthy additional candidates which meet your criteria.

As I mentioned, I do not "churn" but I'm quite have to "evolve" - so that does mean trying to pick new blood from time to time. A beastie like CNA - in terms of dividend lack of growth (dividend less than seven years ago) is an obvious one to try to replace at some point. I'm patient, but there have to be limits.



Arb.

[monabri]

Arb, those are obviously the shares which you hold. I have been compiling my own record of dividends per share for my holdings, but just have annual changes and include special dividends. I have had to start afresh in some cases where rights issues or returns of capital have led to the dividend being rebased. Also one case (TATE) of a change in year end after an extended accounting period.

I just wonder how such changes are accounted for in the data which you have researched?

TJH

The answer is "I don't know" !
I am gullible enough to believe the dividend data website has thought these things through* and can almost certainly do it more competently than I. I do also have my own CAAG rates over 5 years in my XIRR spreadsheet - against which I will certainly check if needed for decision making - but I knocked the table up this way as it was easy to do.

*judging by some of the yield curves I've seen, they look pretty smooth so I think they allow for returns and consols etc.
Arb.

That's my understanding - see example for GFRD above (they also took the 7 for 15 PHNX Rights Issue into account - I checked that as well).

[Arborbridge]

A few months ago, I had a good trawl through the dividend growth rates presented in dividenddata. The companies I identified as "growers" were Legal& General, Imperial Brands, WPP (who promptly froze their dividend recently!) & Direct Line Group - Perhaps I should have included the new & hopefully improved Aviva as well?


"Runners up" were ITV, Greene King,BATS and (Off-Topic) HFEL.

WPP (who promptly froze their dividend recently!)
Perhaps I should have included the new & hopefully improved Aviva as well?

Therein lies the problem. Aviva has a lousy record but might improve, and WPP has an excellent record but might fail (as TESCO did). Both illustrate why I am reluctance to rush to judgement, which naturally leads to accumulating some rotten stocks: those that fail and those that might improve! What I can say, is that overall the HYP provides the income I need, which is what it is supposed to do.

Arb.

[Dod101]

I must say I have never liked RSA or Aviva for reasons that I have outlined before. Mostly because they are still without a decent long term record and much of that is to do with their history. Both still have a lot of historical baggage.

The Legal & General results are due tomorrow I think and Admiral on Thursday. Like today with Phoenix Holdings, the dividend news should be fine.

Dod

[monabri]

(To try to mitigate things like WPP freezing their divi - I took a portfolio approach hoping that there will be improvements in dividends on some at the expense of freezes on others).

For modelling purposes, I took my holding in each company (column B) and multiplied it by the 5 year dividend growth rate (column C) to derive column D. - see table below (top 5 HYP holdings).

I then totted up the value of column D to give an estimate of what I might expect as a dividend growth rate... I arrived at 5.1% (which, coincidentally was very similar to Pyad's HYP1) historical yield).

For my modelling, going forward, I downgraded this to 4% growth going forward, hopefully to be pessimistic.

[idpickering]

The Legal & General results are due tomorrow I think and Admiral on Thursday. Like today with Phoenix Holdings, the dividend news should be fine.

Dod

I hold both and am looking forward to seeing the results. With regards to Thursday though, and yes Admiral are then, I have the dentist first thing so might miss the RNS service, we'll see. Up here in Orkney you don't just pop down the road to the dentist, I have to catch a ferry as it's on a different island to me!

Ian.

[daveh]

I must say I have never liked RSA or Aviva for reasons that I have outlined before. Mostly because they are still without a decent long term record and much of that is to do with their history. Both still have a lot of historical baggage.

The Legal & General results are due tomorrow I think and Admiral on Thursday. Like today with Phoenix Holdings, the dividend news should be fine.

Dod

Yet for me Aviva is showing a gain of 81% (total return) and has repaid ~2/3 of the purchase cost in dividends, which is somewhere around average in performance term for my HYP holdings. My median gain on all shares ever held is +45% including those sold and those that went bust.

I'm afraid I can't do an XIRR calculation very easily as it has a complicated history with some dividends being automatically reinvested and some not so I would have to look up the dividend history going back to 2007 when I purchased shares where the divi wasn't reinvested and include those dividends as +ve cashflows to get an accurate XIRR (it comes out as +2.82% pa without that and +6.54%pa if I say all the dividend paid out was paid on a single date half way between now and first purchase date which is a bit rough and dirty as calculations go).


So how well a share has performed can be very dependant on when purchased. I've held some AV. since demutualisation of Norwich Union and purchased more in 2007, 2010 and 2011 with the later purchases at a significant discount to todays price, though the price paid on demutualisation (552p) and in 07 (765p) are both higher than yesterdays price.

[IanTHughes]

A few months ago, I had a good trawl through the dividend growth rates presented in dividenddata. The companies I identified as "growers" were Legal& General, Imperial Brands, WPP (who promptly froze their dividend recently!) & Direct Line Group - Perhaps I should have included the new & hopefully improved Aviva as well?

"Runners up" were ITV, Greene King,BATS and (Off-Topic) HFEL.

WPP (who promptly froze their dividend recently!)
Perhaps I should have included the new & hopefully improved Aviva as well?

Therein lies the problem. Aviva has a lousy record but might improve

Aviva PLC (AV) was one of four very first HYP purchases, back in February 2012. A year later the dividend was cut by 40%. As it stands now this holding shows a total return of over 8.00% and the dividend increase over the last five years has been 13.5% annually.

Sure, I have holdings with better results but "lousy"? I don't think so. And, over the past five years, it has been a star.


Ian

[Arborbridge]

Therein lies the problem. Aviva has a lousy record but might improve

Aviva PLC (AV) was one of four very first HYP purchases, back in February 2012. A year later the dividend was cut by 40%. As it stands now this holding shows a total return of over 8.00% and the dividend increase over the last five years has been 13.5% annually.

Sure, I have holdings with better results but "lousy"? I don't think so. And, over the past five years, it has been a star.


Ian

Timing the market, not time in Aviva has been dire, and like you it was one of my first buys - in 2007.
THis chart isn't what a HYPer wants, ideally*:-
https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... py?epic=Av.

The dividend is showing zero growth over the period I've owned it with thankfully some recovery after years of struggle.
THe XIRR to today's date from 2007 is 1.7% pa - that effectively implies the dividends have been paid from eroding capital.
OK - it's not a catastrophe, but I think "dire" or "lousy" are probably appropriate words to use.
And unlike daveh, my capital is still 17% underwater - despite 11 years of waiting.

Arb.

*what would a HYPer like to see? Something more regular. like this:-

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... y?epic=imb