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Next - Trading Statement

Practical discussions about equity High-Yield Portfolios (HYP) for income
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idpickering
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Next - Trading Statement

#190706

Postby idpickering » January 3rd, 2019, 7:05 am

SALES FOR THE YEAR TO 29 DECEMBER 2018

Full price sales for the Christmas trading period (between Sunday 28 October and Saturday 29 December) have been in line with the guidance we gave in September and were up +1.5% on last year. Strong sales in the three weeks prior to Christmas along with a good half-term holiday week at the end of October made up for disappointing sales in November. This is shown in the chart below which sets out our weekly sales performance for the second half of the year to date.


https://www.investegate.co.uk/next-plc- ... 00100183M/

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Re: Next - Trading Statement

#190708

Postby johnhemming » January 3rd, 2019, 7:16 am

next wrote:Any sales forecast made in January comes with a high degree of uncertainty. This year uncertainty around the performance of the UK economy after Brexit makes forecasting particularly difficult. We have not factored into our sales estimates the potential benefits of a smooth transition or the downsides of a disorderly Brexit.

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Re: Next - Trading Statement

#190713

Postby idpickering » January 3rd, 2019, 7:30 am

They've apparently marginally beaten market estimates, so may do well on market opening. I don't hold these, and only hold Sainsbury's in the retail sector.

Ian.

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Re: Next - Trading Statement

#190718

Postby johnhemming » January 3rd, 2019, 8:10 am

I don't know the market estimates, but it is worth noting that their online has gone up by more than their bricks and mortar has gone down.

idpickering
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Re: Next - Trading Statement

#190723

Postby idpickering » January 3rd, 2019, 8:32 am

Share up 5% currently. Still not one for inclusion in my HYP though.

Ian.

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Re: Next - Trading Statement

#190727

Postby jackdaww » January 3rd, 2019, 8:40 am

not for me.

too much competition , not just in the high st , but on line also .

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Re: Next - Trading Statement

#190753

Postby 88V8 » January 3rd, 2019, 10:03 am

Is this a contrarian moment to buy into retailers? After all, we still buy stuff.

Real question is, which retailers.........

Shame that Amazon pays no divi https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/ ... -2018.aspx

V8

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Re: Next - Trading Statement

#190768

Postby Arborbridge » January 3rd, 2019, 11:32 am

88V8 wrote:Is this a contrarian moment to buy into retailers? After all, we still buy stuff.

Real question is, which retailers.........

Shame that Amazon pays no divi https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/ ... -2018.aspx

V8


And very little tax, not to mention low wages. That's why I will not buy from it unless unavoidable. The only reason I bought something this year was I had a credit left over from 2017, lodged by my daughter.

idpickering
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Re: Next - Trading Statement

#190771

Postby idpickering » January 3rd, 2019, 11:47 am

Arborbridge wrote:
88V8 wrote:Is this a contrarian moment to buy into retailers? After all, we still buy stuff.

Real question is, which retailers.........

Shame that Amazon pays no divi https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/ ... -2018.aspx

V8


And very little tax, not to mention low wages. That's why I will not buy from it unless unavoidable. The only reason I bought something this year was I had a credit left over from 2017, lodged by my daughter.


My Wife has tried to get me to buy some Next in the past, but I've always declined. The way she spends money there (via the internet) maybe I should!! :D

Ian.

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Re: Next - Trading Statement

#190804

Postby Bouleversee » January 3rd, 2019, 1:56 pm

idpickering wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
88V8 wrote:Is this a contrarian moment to buy into retailers? After all, we still buy stuff.

Real question is, which retailers.........

Shame that Amazon pays no divi https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/ ... -2018.aspx

V8


And very little tax, not to mention low wages. That's why I will not buy from it unless unavoidable. The only reason I bought something this year was I had a credit left over from 2017, lodged by my daughter.


My Wife has tried to get me to buy some Next in the past, but I've always declined. The way she spends money there (via the internet) maybe I should!! :D

Ian.


You did well to resist, Ian. I must have bought at the height and am down over 30% even after today's rise, as is the current portfolio value of the whole ISA they are in, though not all losses were incurred in this year and there has been one takeover at a profit. I shall wait till the end of the tax year to calculate the overall position for the fiscal year, including my main ISA and non-ISA holdings but I fear it will be depressing, especially when I recall that for many years the total return on my portfolios used to be around the 20% mark.

idpickering
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Re: Next - Trading Statement

#190813

Postby idpickering » January 3rd, 2019, 2:24 pm

Bouleversee wrote:
You did well to resist, Ian. I must have bought at the height and am down over 30% even after today's rise, as is the current portfolio value of the whole ISA they are in, though not all losses were incurred in this year and there has been one takeover at a profit. I shall wait till the end of the tax year to calculate the overall position for the fiscal year, including my main ISA and non-ISA holdings but I fear it will be depressing, especially when I recall that for many years the total return on my portfolios used to be around the 20% mark.


Thank you Bouleversee. For me though, I'm not keen on niche type retail shares, hence me holding the more general retailer that is Sainsbury's.

Ian.

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Re: Next - Trading Statement

#191007

Postby Bouleversee » January 4th, 2019, 1:15 pm

idpickering wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:
You did well to resist, Ian. I must have bought at the height and am down over 30% even after today's rise, as is the current portfolio value of the whole ISA they are in, though not all losses were incurred in this year and there has been one takeover at a profit. I shall wait till the end of the tax year to calculate the overall position for the fiscal year, including my main ISA and non-ISA holdings but I fear it will be depressing, especially when I recall that for many years the total return on my portfolios used to be around the 20% mark.


Thank you Bouleversee. For me though, I'm not keen on niche type retail shares, hence me holding the more general retailer that is Sainsbury's.

Ian.



I hold Sainsbury's as well. My loss is smaller there. However, it wouldn't surprise me if Next proved the better long term bet if one were buying today, though I am not buying anything till the fog clears.

idpickering
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Re: Next - Trading Statement

#191023

Postby idpickering » January 4th, 2019, 2:31 pm

Bouleversee wrote:
idpickering wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:
You did well to resist, Ian. I must have bought at the height and am down over 30% even after today's rise, as is the current portfolio value of the whole ISA they are in, though not all losses were incurred in this year and there has been one takeover at a profit. I shall wait till the end of the tax year to calculate the overall position for the fiscal year, including my main ISA and non-ISA holdings but I fear it will be depressing, especially when I recall that for many years the total return on my portfolios used to be around the 20% mark.


Thank you Bouleversee. For me though, I'm not keen on niche type retail shares, hence me holding the more general retailer that is Sainsbury's.

Ian.



I hold Sainsbury's as well. My loss is smaller there. However, it wouldn't surprise me if Next proved the better long term bet if one were buying today, though I am not buying anything till the fog clears.


Hi again. Regarding Sainsbury's, I only have a half holding nowadays, in capital value terms. I redeployed the cash elsewhere for a higher income. Back to Next though, maybe I'm missing a trick there, but am wary of diworsification creeping in.

Ian.

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Re: Next - Trading Statement

#191041

Postby Wasron » January 4th, 2019, 3:41 pm

idpickering wrote:
Hi again. Regarding Sainsbury's, I only have a half holding nowadays, in capital value terms. I redeployed the cash elsewhere for a higher income. Back to Next though, maybe I'm missing a trick there, but am wary of diworsification creeping in.

Ian.


I’m not sure Next should be classed as diworsification. I don’t hold any retailers in my 33 share HYP, but if I did, Next is the only one I’d buy.

They have consistently maintained an operating margin of around 20%, have a £6bn market cap and pay a well covered dividend.

They have a clear policy of buying back shares unless the price is above a certain amount, at which point they would pay the excess as special dividends. They’ve continued to pay smaller specials despite the price being below that level (£67 if my memory serves me correctly).

They also have a strong online presence, to some extent insulating them from high street decline. I don’t own any as I get a higher yield from Tritax Big Box REIT, as this neatly sidesteps the fickle nature of fashion entirely.

Regards,

Wasron

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Re: Next - Trading Statement

#191088

Postby idpickering » January 4th, 2019, 5:35 pm

Wasron wrote:
idpickering wrote:
Hi again. Regarding Sainsbury's, I only have a half holding nowadays, in capital value terms. I redeployed the cash elsewhere for a higher income. Back to Next though, maybe I'm missing a trick there, but am wary of diworsification creeping in.

Ian.


I’m not sure Next should be classed as diworsification. I don’t hold any retailers in my 33 share HYP, but if I did, Next is the only one I’d buy.

They have consistently maintained an operating margin of around 20%, have a £6bn market cap and pay a well covered dividend.

They have a clear policy of buying back shares unless the price is above a certain amount, at which point they would pay the excess as special dividends. They’ve continued to pay smaller specials despite the price being below that level (£67 if my memory serves me correctly).

They also have a strong online presence, to some extent insulating them from high street decline. I don’t own any as I get a higher yield from Tritax Big Box REIT, as this neatly sidesteps the fickle nature of fashion entirely.

Regards,

Wasron


Thanks for your input Wasron, you paint a convincing case. Maybe diworsification was not the correct term. Either way, the yield on offer doesn't make them an option for me, as there are better yields elsewhere.

Ian.


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