The Lemon Fool

SALES FOR THE YEAR TO 29 DECEMBER 2018

Full price sales for the Christmas trading period (between Sunday 28 October and Saturday 29 December) have been in line with the guidance we gave in September and were up +1.5% on last year. Strong sales in the three weeks prior to Christmas along with a good half-term holiday week at the end of October made up for disappointing sales in November. This is shown in the chart below which sets out our weekly sales performance for the second half of the year to date.

next wrote:Any sales forecast made in January comes with a high degree of uncertainty. This year uncertainty around the performance of the UK economy after Brexit makes forecasting particularly difficult. We have not factored into our sales estimates the potential benefits of a smooth transition or the downsides of a disorderly Brexit.

88V8 wrote:Is this a contrarian moment to buy into retailers? After all, we still buy stuff.

Real question is, which retailers.........

Shame that Amazon pays no divi https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/ ... -2018.aspx

V8

Arborbridge wrote:

88V8 wrote:Is this a contrarian moment to buy into retailers? After all, we still buy stuff.

Real question is, which retailers.........

Shame that Amazon pays no divi https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/ ... -2018.aspx

V8

And very little tax, not to mention low wages. That's why I will not buy from it unless unavoidable. The only reason I bought something this year was I had a credit left over from 2017, lodged by my daughter.

idpickering wrote:

Arborbridge wrote:

88V8 wrote:Is this a contrarian moment to buy into retailers? After all, we still buy stuff.

Real question is, which retailers.........

Shame that Amazon pays no divi https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/ ... -2018.aspx

V8

And very little tax, not to mention low wages. That's why I will not buy from it unless unavoidable. The only reason I bought something this year was I had a credit left over from 2017, lodged by my daughter.

My Wife has tried to get me to buy some Next in the past, but I've always declined. The way she spends money there (via the internet) maybe I should!!

Ian.

Bouleversee wrote:
You did well to resist, Ian. I must have bought at the height and am down over 30% even after today's rise, as is the current portfolio value of the whole ISA they are in, though not all losses were incurred in this year and there has been one takeover at a profit. I shall wait till the end of the tax year to calculate the overall position for the fiscal year, including my main ISA and non-ISA holdings but I fear it will be depressing, especially when I recall that for many years the total return on my portfolios used to be around the 20% mark.

idpickering wrote:

Bouleversee wrote:
You did well to resist, Ian. I must have bought at the height and am down over 30% even after today's rise, as is the current portfolio value of the whole ISA they are in, though not all losses were incurred in this year and there has been one takeover at a profit. I shall wait till the end of the tax year to calculate the overall position for the fiscal year, including my main ISA and non-ISA holdings but I fear it will be depressing, especially when I recall that for many years the total return on my portfolios used to be around the 20% mark.

Thank you Bouleversee. For me though, I'm not keen on niche type retail shares, hence me holding the more general retailer that is Sainsbury's.

Ian.

Bouleversee wrote:

idpickering wrote:

Bouleversee wrote:
You did well to resist, Ian. I must have bought at the height and am down over 30% even after today's rise, as is the current portfolio value of the whole ISA they are in, though not all losses were incurred in this year and there has been one takeover at a profit. I shall wait till the end of the tax year to calculate the overall position for the fiscal year, including my main ISA and non-ISA holdings but I fear it will be depressing, especially when I recall that for many years the total return on my portfolios used to be around the 20% mark.

Thank you Bouleversee. For me though, I'm not keen on niche type retail shares, hence me holding the more general retailer that is Sainsbury's.

Ian.

I hold Sainsbury's as well. My loss is smaller there. However, it wouldn't surprise me if Next proved the better long term bet if one were buying today, though I am not buying anything till the fog clears.

idpickering wrote:
Hi again. Regarding Sainsbury's, I only have a half holding nowadays, in capital value terms. I redeployed the cash elsewhere for a higher income. Back to Next though, maybe I'm missing a trick there, but am wary of diworsification creeping in.

Ian.

Wasron wrote:

idpickering wrote:
Hi again. Regarding Sainsbury's, I only have a half holding nowadays, in capital value terms. I redeployed the cash elsewhere for a higher income. Back to Next though, maybe I'm missing a trick there, but am wary of diworsification creeping in.

Ian.

I’m not sure Next should be classed as diworsification. I don’t hold any retailers in my 33 share HYP, but if I did, Next is the only one I’d buy.

They have consistently maintained an operating margin of around 20%, have a £6bn market cap and pay a well covered dividend.

They have a clear policy of buying back shares unless the price is above a certain amount, at which point they would pay the excess as special dividends. They’ve continued to pay smaller specials despite the price being below that level (£67 if my memory serves me correctly).

They also have a strong online presence, to some extent insulating them from high street decline. I don’t own any as I get a higher yield from Tritax Big Box REIT, as this neatly sidesteps the fickle nature of fashion entirely.

Regards,

Wasron