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Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

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idpickering
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Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#191852

Postby idpickering » January 8th, 2019, 7:03 am

Trading statement for the 36 weeks to 6th January 2019

After 36 weeks of our financial year, Pub Company like-for-like (LFL) sales were up 3.2% following strong trading over the Christmas period as we continue to trade ahead of the market1. LFL sales in the last two weeks, covering Christmas and the New Year, were up 10.9% and we achieved record Christmas day sales of £7.7m. All sales categories saw LFL sales growth over the last six weeks with our Greene King branded Local Pubs driving strong drink sales growth. Last year's additional investment in Value, Service and Quality continues to underpin our performance.

Pub Partners LFL net profit was down approximately 1% while total beer volumes in Brewing & Brands were up 1.8% and own-brewed volumes were down 2.3%.

Our cost mitigation programme is on track to limit net cost inflation to £10-20m in the year while we made further progress on our estate optimisation programme, remaining on course to dispose of 100-110 pubs and open around nine new pubs in the financial year.

Following the announcement in December of an open tender process on the remaining Spirit bonds, as part of our ongoing debt refinancing programme, we have bought back £62m of the Spirit A5 bonds to date.

While the ongoing uncertainty around Brexit may still have an impact on consumer confidence and spending during the year, we remain confident of our outlook for the financial year. We remain focused on our strategic priorities of driving profitable sales growth, developing a more streamlined and efficient organisation, and further strengthening and improving the flexibility of our capital structure to deliver long-term value for our shareholders.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/greene-ki ... 00034315M/

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#191857

Postby maximan » January 8th, 2019, 7:36 am

Thanks Ian
The business seems to be chugging along nicely.
It's good to see they remain confident of their outlook for the financial year.

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#191861

Postby idpickering » January 8th, 2019, 7:50 am

maximan wrote:Thanks Ian
The business seems to be chugging along nicely.
It's good to see they remain confident of their outlook for the financial year.


You're welcome. I'm a more recent investor in this stock, having brought it on board my HYP last October, and November.

Ian.

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#191863

Postby Arborbridge » January 8th, 2019, 7:58 am

maximan wrote:Thanks Ian
The business seems to be chugging along nicely.
It's good to see they remain confident of their outlook for the financial year.


And the shorters have been gradually backing off.

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#192082

Postby EssDeeAitch » January 9th, 2019, 5:16 am

Arborbridge wrote:
maximan wrote:Thanks Ian
The business seems to be chugging along nicely.
It's good to see they remain confident of their outlook for the financial year.


And the shorters have been gradually backing off.


Where does one obtain information on stocks being shorted?

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#192089

Postby TUK020 » January 9th, 2019, 7:12 am

EssDeeAitch wrote:
Where does one obtain information on stocks being shorted?


https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#192101

Postby Arborbridge » January 9th, 2019, 8:38 am

TUK020 wrote:
EssDeeAitch wrote:
Where does one obtain information on stocks being shorted?


https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc



Thanks for answering that: I got up late today!

To my mind, what has happened with Greene King casts doubt upon taking too much note of whether one should sell companies being shorted. Greene King shorts have in the recent past been quite high, yet now it seems the company is still doing its thing and shorters are backing down. Hedge funds are interested in gains over a fairly short period of time - they are just making a bet that the share price will come down, and are not necessarily flagging that a company is doomed.

I have a feeling that by the time shorting is big enough to show a company is in really serious trouble - let's say 20% of stock shorted, as a guess, it would be too late to get out at a reasonable price.

Arb.

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#192150

Postby EssDeeAitch » January 9th, 2019, 11:34 am

TUK020 wrote:
EssDeeAitch wrote:
Where does one obtain information on stocks being shorted?


https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc


Many thanks. I do not know too much about the "science" of shorting but suspect that it is the same as the science of going long. Hope you have the fundamentals correct then hope like hell.

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#192163

Postby Arborbridge » January 9th, 2019, 12:35 pm

EssDeeAitch wrote:
Many thanks. I do not know too much about the "science" of shorting but suspect that it is the same as the science of going long. Hope you have the fundamentals correct then hope like hell.


Yes, it's just the same - you take a position based on how your see the fundamentals, then watch like a hawk. The point about most traders using shorts is that they are usually held for short periods during a passing crisis, I would think. The motive of those lending their shares, is to make a quick buck out of the loan - but presumably they still believe in the longterm future for the company.

Arb.

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#192189

Postby monabri » January 9th, 2019, 1:56 pm

EssDeeAitch wrote:
TUK020 wrote:
EssDeeAitch wrote:
Where does one obtain information on stocks being shorted?


https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc


Many thanks. I do not know too much about the "science" of shorting but suspect that it is the same as the science of going long. Hope you have the fundamentals correct then hope like hell.


Cross post..to avoid discussion on shorting and to hopefully to dig a little deeper.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=15595

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#192197

Postby TUK020 » January 9th, 2019, 3:03 pm

EssDeeAitch wrote:
TUK020 wrote:
EssDeeAitch wrote:
Where does one obtain information on stocks being shorted?


https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc


Many thanks. I do not know too much about the "science" of shorting but suspect that it is the same as the science of going long. Hope you have the fundamentals correct then hope like hell.


I got burnt by Carillion. Spent a lot of time reading all of the post mortem stuff on TLF, and chewing over "What could I do something differently to avoid a repeat?"
The conclusion I came to was that the advance warning signal that I could have picked up on was the shorting level.
I now monitor the short levels on a periodic basis, and bail out of anything with a short level of over 5% (completely arbitrary figure).
Means I exited SBRY before the sp recovery. I also got out of BBY,COB and a couple of others arguably too early/unnecessarily.
Also means I sleep a little easier, particularly where some of my higher yielders are concerned (PSN, MARS)

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#192203

Postby EssDeeAitch » January 9th, 2019, 3:31 pm

TUK020 wrote:
EssDeeAitch wrote:


Many thanks. I do not know too much about the "science" of shorting but suspect that it is the same as the science of going long. Hope you have the fundamentals correct then hope like hell.


I got burnt by Carillion. Spent a lot of time reading all of the post mortem stuff on TLF, and chewing over "What could I do something differently to avoid a repeat?"
The conclusion I came to was that the advance warning signal that I could have picked up on was the shorting level.
I now monitor the short levels on a periodic basis, and bail out of anything with a short level of over 5% (completely arbitrary figure).
Means I exited SBRY before the sp recovery. I also got out of BBY,COB and a couple of others arguably too early/unnecessarily.
Also means I sleep a little easier, particularly where some of my higher yielders are concerned (PSN, MARS)


Your MO is suitable for you and that's all that matters. I think it is a good stance but am not sure about your 5% limit in the same way that I wouldn't be sure about 2% or 10% as I just don't know enough about it, but I will take steps to find out more.

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#193657

Postby idpickering » January 15th, 2019, 11:40 am

This from TMF;

Shareholder perks: I like this FTSE 250 stock that could get you 25% off food and drink for a year

One of the best UK shareholder perk deals currently available, in my opinion, is offered by FTSE 250 hospitality group Greene King (LSE: GNK) – which owns over 2,900 pubs, restaurants, and hotels across the UK.

Every year, at the beginning of September, Greene King sends outs vouchers to those on its shareholder register who own 100 shares or more, which entitle them to a 25% discount on food and drink in Greene King’s pubs and restaurants. You receive a voucher for each month, and each monthly voucher can be used five times (for a maximum discount of £25 per visit).

The shares currently cost around £6 each, meaning that to qualify for the deal, you’d only need an outlay of around £600 (£6 x 100) plus trading commissions and stamp duty, so around £615.


https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/0 ... or-a-year/

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#193660

Postby monabri » January 15th, 2019, 11:43 am

And don't leave them at home like I did when I recently had to go up North for a funeral! (I stayed at a Premier Inn and the restaurant "attached" was a Greene King establishment). :(

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#193756

Postby Arborbridge » January 15th, 2019, 3:33 pm

TUK020 wrote: reading all of the post mortem stuff on TLF, and chewing over "What could I do something differently to avoid a repeat?"
The conclusion I came to was that the advance warning signal that I could have picked up on was the shorting level.
I now monitor the short levels on a periodic basis, and bail out of anything with a short level of over 5% (completely arbitrary figure).
Means I exited SBRY before the sp recovery. I also got out of BBY,COB and a couple of others arguably too early/unnecessarily.
Also means I sleep a little easier, particularly where some of my higher yielders are concerned (PSN, MARS)


If you sleep easier and feel the policy is successful, that's great. It would be really helpful if you could keep a proper log of what you have done and come on here say, once a year, showing whether you feel it's working.

As you know, I'm a bit sceptical that this works as an indicator that. Most shorting is done to earn fees, not to kill a company, and in my view 5% is not a serious degree of shorting but quite possibly a passing phase. However - I do like the idea and am willing to be persuaded. It's just that I've seen quite a few shares buzz in and out of a few percent shorting, and people are presumably just profiting from the volatility without it sounding a death knell.

Arb.

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#193779

Postby mike » January 15th, 2019, 5:03 pm

A bit of info

The board of Greene King plc announces that Nick Mackenzie will join the board on 1st May 2019 as Chief Executive in succession to Rooney Anand.

Nick will be joining from Merlin Entertainments plc ('Merlin') where, as a member of the Executive Committee, he is responsible for the Midway portfolio of attractions, which comprises over 100 businesses around the world including Madame Tussauds, the London Eye and SEA LIFE aquariums.


https://www.investegate.co.uk/greene-king-plc--gnk-/rns/directorate-change/201901151400021672N/

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#193819

Postby TUK020 » January 15th, 2019, 8:33 pm

Arborbridge wrote:If you sleep easier and feel the policy is successful, that's great. It would be really helpful if you could keep a proper log of what you have done and come on here say, once a year, showing whether you feel it's working.

As you know, I'm a bit sceptical that this works as an indicator that. Most shorting is done to earn fees, not to kill a company, and in my view 5% is not a serious degree of shorting but quite possibly a passing phase. However - I do like the idea and am willing to be persuaded. It's just that I've seen quite a few shares buzz in and out of a few percent shorting, and people are presumably just profiting from the volatility without it sounding a death knell.

Arb.

I recently posted a copy of my portfolio on the portfolio review board. The only share above a couple of percent shorting was MARS, and this is subsiding.
I do have a couple of very high yielders that I am anxious about, PSN for example, that are not showing up on the shorting radar.
I am wondering if these are high enough yield to make holding a short position very expensive.
Tuk020

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Re: Greene King - Xmas Trading Update

#193860

Postby Arborbridge » January 15th, 2019, 10:30 pm

TUK020 wrote:I recently posted a copy of my portfolio on the portfolio review board. The only share above a couple of percent shorting was MARS, and this is subsiding.
I do have a couple of very high yielders that I am anxious about, PSN for example, that are not showing up on the shorting radar.
I am wondering if these are high enough yield to make holding a short position very expensive.
Tuk020


That's good, but I think the really important matter would be to study this in an organised way and see what happens over the next years. Unfortunately, you won't conclude anything except by rigorous record keeping, patience and persistence - and even then you may not :(

Arb.


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