The Lemon Fool

Trading statement for the 36 weeks to 6th January 2019

After 36 weeks of our financial year, Pub Company like-for-like (LFL) sales were up 3.2% following strong trading over the Christmas period as we continue to trade ahead of the market1. LFL sales in the last two weeks, covering Christmas and the New Year, were up 10.9% and we achieved record Christmas day sales of £7.7m. All sales categories saw LFL sales growth over the last six weeks with our Greene King branded Local Pubs driving strong drink sales growth. Last year's additional investment in Value, Service and Quality continues to underpin our performance.

Pub Partners LFL net profit was down approximately 1% while total beer volumes in Brewing & Brands were up 1.8% and own-brewed volumes were down 2.3%.

Our cost mitigation programme is on track to limit net cost inflation to £10-20m in the year while we made further progress on our estate optimisation programme, remaining on course to dispose of 100-110 pubs and open around nine new pubs in the financial year.

Following the announcement in December of an open tender process on the remaining Spirit bonds, as part of our ongoing debt refinancing programme, we have bought back £62m of the Spirit A5 bonds to date.

While the ongoing uncertainty around Brexit may still have an impact on consumer confidence and spending during the year, we remain confident of our outlook for the financial year. We remain focused on our strategic priorities of driving profitable sales growth, developing a more streamlined and efficient organisation, and further strengthening and improving the flexibility of our capital structure to deliver long-term value for our shareholders.

maximan wrote:Thanks Ian
The business seems to be chugging along nicely.
It's good to see they remain confident of their outlook for the financial year.

maximan wrote:Thanks Ian
The business seems to be chugging along nicely.
It's good to see they remain confident of their outlook for the financial year.

Arborbridge wrote:

maximan wrote:Thanks Ian
The business seems to be chugging along nicely.
It's good to see they remain confident of their outlook for the financial year.

And the shorters have been gradually backing off.

EssDeeAitch wrote:
Where does one obtain information on stocks being shorted?

TUK020 wrote:

EssDeeAitch wrote:
Where does one obtain information on stocks being shorted?

https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

TUK020 wrote:

EssDeeAitch wrote:
Where does one obtain information on stocks being shorted?

https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

EssDeeAitch wrote:
Many thanks. I do not know too much about the "science" of shorting but suspect that it is the same as the science of going long. Hope you have the fundamentals correct then hope like hell.

EssDeeAitch wrote:

TUK020 wrote:

EssDeeAitch wrote:
Where does one obtain information on stocks being shorted?

https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

Many thanks. I do not know too much about the "science" of shorting but suspect that it is the same as the science of going long. Hope you have the fundamentals correct then hope like hell.

EssDeeAitch wrote:

TUK020 wrote:

EssDeeAitch wrote:
Where does one obtain information on stocks being shorted?

https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

Many thanks. I do not know too much about the "science" of shorting but suspect that it is the same as the science of going long. Hope you have the fundamentals correct then hope like hell.

TUK020 wrote:

EssDeeAitch wrote:

TUK020 wrote:
https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

Many thanks. I do not know too much about the "science" of shorting but suspect that it is the same as the science of going long. Hope you have the fundamentals correct then hope like hell.

I got burnt by Carillion. Spent a lot of time reading all of the post mortem stuff on TLF, and chewing over "What could I do something differently to avoid a repeat?"
The conclusion I came to was that the advance warning signal that I could have picked up on was the shorting level.
I now monitor the short levels on a periodic basis, and bail out of anything with a short level of over 5% (completely arbitrary figure).
Means I exited SBRY before the sp recovery. I also got out of BBY,COB and a couple of others arguably too early/unnecessarily.
Also means I sleep a little easier, particularly where some of my higher yielders are concerned (PSN, MARS)

One of the best UK shareholder perk deals currently available, in my opinion, is offered by FTSE 250 hospitality group Greene King (LSE: GNK) – which owns over 2,900 pubs, restaurants, and hotels across the UK.

Every year, at the beginning of September, Greene King sends outs vouchers to those on its shareholder register who own 100 shares or more, which entitle them to a 25% discount on food and drink in Greene King’s pubs and restaurants. You receive a voucher for each month, and each monthly voucher can be used five times (for a maximum discount of £25 per visit).

The shares currently cost around £6 each, meaning that to qualify for the deal, you’d only need an outlay of around £600 (£6 x 100) plus trading commissions and stamp duty, so around £615.

TUK020 wrote: reading all of the post mortem stuff on TLF, and chewing over "What could I do something differently to avoid a repeat?"
The conclusion I came to was that the advance warning signal that I could have picked up on was the shorting level.
I now monitor the short levels on a periodic basis, and bail out of anything with a short level of over 5% (completely arbitrary figure).
Means I exited SBRY before the sp recovery. I also got out of BBY,COB and a couple of others arguably too early/unnecessarily.
Also means I sleep a little easier, particularly where some of my higher yielders are concerned (PSN, MARS)

The board of Greene King plc announces that Nick Mackenzie will join the board on 1st May 2019 as Chief Executive in succession to Rooney Anand.

Nick will be joining from Merlin Entertainments plc ('Merlin') where, as a member of the Executive Committee, he is responsible for the Midway portfolio of attractions, which comprises over 100 businesses around the world including Madame Tussauds, the London Eye and SEA LIFE aquariums.

Arborbridge wrote:If you sleep easier and feel the policy is successful, that's great. It would be really helpful if you could keep a proper log of what you have done and come on here say, once a year, showing whether you feel it's working.

As you know, I'm a bit sceptical that this works as an indicator that. Most shorting is done to earn fees, not to kill a company, and in my view 5% is not a serious degree of shorting but quite possibly a passing phase. However - I do like the idea and am willing to be persuaded. It's just that I've seen quite a few shares buzz in and out of a few percent shorting, and people are presumably just profiting from the volatility without it sounding a death knell.

Arb.

TUK020 wrote:I recently posted a copy of my portfolio on the portfolio review board. The only share above a couple of percent shorting was MARS, and this is subsiding.
I do have a couple of very high yielders that I am anxious about, PSN for example, that are not showing up on the shorting radar.
I am wondering if these are high enough yield to make holding a short position very expensive.
Tuk020