The Lemon Fool

monabri wrote:Pearson...yield is 1.74% (figure from dividend data)....what possible reason is there to keep hold of when one could buy income of 3x this amount without too much digging. The only reason I can think of is that the share price is well below the purchase price and that is a factor?

Or, for every £1k of currently invested money in PSON, one could sell and effectively buy £3k "worth" of dividend elsewhere....


edit..or one could buy 3 off £1k top ups ..thus spreading the 'out of the frying pan' risk...

The main reason to hold PSON is that the investor already owns it and is an eternity HYPer. This removes all decision making and most monitoring requirements, other than dealing with the effects of occasional mandatory corporate action.

Tinkerers should have sold PSON a long time ago if they are playing it logically with some sort of math dumpology based on, eg., yield relative to the market, and as you say, reinvested in a much higher yielder. What I'm commenting upon here is the sort of dither-tinkering resulting from having no clear sell signals. I don't really get that at all.

monabri wrote:Pearson...yield is 1.74% (figure from dividend data)....what possible reason is there to keep hold of when one could buy income of 3x this amount without too much digging. The only reason I can think of is that the share price is well below the purchase price and that is a factor?

Or, for every £1k of currently invested money in PSON, one could sell and effectively buy £3k "worth" of dividend elsewhere....


edit..or one could buy 3 off £1k top ups ..thus spreading the 'out of the frying pan' risk...

I didn't express that very well... I meant to spread the money released 3 ways!

monabri"s magic money tree ..graduate of the Abbott school of economics

pyad wrote:Tinkerers should have sold PSON a long time ago if they are playing it logically with some sort of math dumpology based on, eg., yield relative to the market, and as you say, reinvested in a much higher yielder. What I'm commenting upon here is the sort of dither-tinkering resulting from having no clear sell signals. I don't really get that at all.

Quite brilliant. Two new words in one post to enter the HYP lexicon alongside pickering. What a new year's treat.

Something is wrong somewhere, but I find myself basically agreeing with pyad. He has reflected pretty much what I said yesterday afternoon. Having held on until now, holders might just as well keep Pearson unless very anxious for more income.

Dod

Dod101 wrote:Something is wrong somewhere, but I find myself basically agreeing with pyad. He has reflected pretty much what I said yesterday afternoon. Having held on until now, holders might just as well keep Pearson unless very anxious for more income.

Dod

Just lie down in a cool, dark room until normal service is resumed....

Thanks for all the feedback, particularly the rare contribution from pyad. Nice to have his opinion, especially about not putting too much weight on others opinions, including his.. bravo!

As to the rule based tinkering, well that is exactly how this discussion arose. Pearson crossed the threshold and after waiting for the dust to settle it's clear that the road back will be a long one. TJH in the past has mercilessly sold when a share crossed his boundary, or when he is convinced the "knees have stopped jerking" so now would be the right time to sell. However, his input was to wait until the next dividend declaration - presumably to get some steer as to how quickly the dividend might be restored. So even TJH shades his own tinkering policy to suit the circumstances - which I would suggest might be part of his success. He has "rules" but bends them when he believes it to be appropriate.


BTW, I haven't returned to this pickering episode until just now, having be busy walking to the shops and back, but in the meantime, I see the Pearson share price has perked up even more. In a week, gaining the equivakent of three years or so dividend can't be bad. And Monabri echoes my own thoughts (and I daresay Dod's too) in pointing out I could achieve two or three times the yield elsewhere and not put up with the wait for dividends to restore.

Pyad knows I'm cursed as a tinkerer, but in my defence, I would say a reluctant one! Lord, make me a perfect HYPer, but not yet.

Arb.

monabri wrote:Pearson...yield is 1.74% (figure from dividend data)....what possible reason is there to keep hold of when one could buy income of 3x this amount without too much digging. The only reason I can think of is that the share price is well below the purchase price and that is a factor?

Or, for every £1k of currently invested money in PSON, one could sell and effectively buy £3k "worth" of dividend elsewhere....


edit..or one could buy 3 off £1k top ups ..thus spreading the 'out of the frying pan' risk...

You may not have noticed the big rise in PSON's share price last year, which has continued this year.

I could swap it for another share, but I am getting the prospect of being able to buy yet more income if I hang on for a while.

As I said above, I'm awaiting developments. SP currently 1020.5p, but six months ago it was 717p. I am almost 50% up over that six months. I'm happy to wait a bit longer.

TJH

tjh290633 wrote:You may not have noticed the big rise in PSON's share price last year, which has continued this year.

I could swap it for another share, but I am getting the prospect of being able to buy yet more income if I hang on for a while.

As I said above, I'm awaiting developments. SP currently 1020.5p, but six months ago it was 717p. I am almost 50% up over that six months. I'm happy to wait a bit longer.

TJH

Interestingly, if you had followed your advertised guidelines, you might well have sold months ago when the yield was below 2% and the price had stabilised. This shows that like all the best investors, you don't always obey your own rules but apply some secret sauce.

Arb.

Snorvey wrote:dumpology

That's a new word. Official.

It was once:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/396448 ... -dumpology

That from 2016.

This “author” from 2010 (look away if easily offended):

https://www.urbandictionary.com/author. ... =Dumpology

Dod101 wrote:

StepOne wrote: If I were you, I would do nothing for 6 months and review the situation then.

Aka kicking the can down the road.

Dod

You say that like it's a bad thing

StepOne wrote:

Dod101 wrote:

StepOne wrote: If I were you, I would do nothing for 6 months and review the situation then.

Aka kicking the can down the road.

Dod

You say that like it's a bad thing

I note your 'lol', so I am not sure of your point, but yes I do not think there is much point in that. What is going to happen in six month's time which will tell you something you do not know now? Not a lot is the only answer I can think of. This is after all the HYP Board. The dividend is unlikely to double in that time and even if it did, what would have happened to the share price and thus the yield? That is what we are interested in.

So either hold Pearson or ditch it. Agonising over a share does not often work out well in my experience.

Dod

PinkDalek wrote:

Snorvey wrote:dumpology

That's a new word. Official.

It was once:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/396448 ... -dumpology

That from 2016.

This “author” from 2010 (look away if easily offended):

https://www.urbandictionary.com/author. ... =Dumpology

Yeah but as you know I meant the new meaning here of adopting some sort of clear selling rule for HYPer tinkerers.

I see dumpology as superior to the sort of dither-tinkering seen in this thread, for those that feel they have to tinker at all.

Dod101 wrote:

StepOne wrote:

Dod101 wrote:
Aka kicking the can down the road.

Dod

You say that like it's a bad thing

I note your 'lol', so I am not sure of your point, but yes I do not think there is much point in that. What is going to happen in six month's time which will tell you something you do not know now? Not a lot is the only answer I can think of. This is after all the HYP Board. The dividend is unlikely to double in that time and even if it did, what would have happened to the share price and thus the yield? That is what we are interested in.

So either hold Pearson or ditch it. Agonising over a share does not often work out well in my experience.

Dod

It's pretty much my response to anyone who considers tinkering - give it 6 months and see what you think. If they return in half a year and ask the same question, I'll probably suggest waiting another 6 months. I think it sounds more palatable than a dogmatic 'never sell!'.

I'm not completely against tinkering, but I think it should be kept to a minimum, and that quite often people sell when the situation appears to be at its worst, so holding on for a recovery might turn out to be a good thing.

It's really just a tactic to keep trading to a minimum.

StepOne

StepOne wrote:
I'm not completely against tinkering, but I think it should be kept to a minimum, and that quite often people sell when the situation appears to be at its worst, so holding on for a recovery might turn out to be a good thing.

It's really just a tactic to keep trading to a minimum.

StepOne

That's a good policy, and one I've pretty much put into practice with Pearson - but there comes a time when one thinks the worst is past, the knees have stopped jerking and it is time to look again, seriously, at whether I can improve my income.

For the moment, I'm taking TJH's view on board and waiting for the trading update. I have a feeling the price might drop though - there's a lot of "hope" in the price at present.


Arb.

I don't have much to add other than that Pearson has been subject to my default action: do nothing, not even pickering.

I usually only sell my HYP picks to harvest unsheltered capital gains and fill my SIPP/ISA and I hold Pearson in my ISA. If the share price rises indicates a successful change of corporate bias (and I have no idea if it does) then I think it's plausible that dividends will increase. If the company is doomed then the price and dividend will obviously suffer. The share price over the past year or so is many times the increase in dividend income I could have found elsewhere, so far this looks like a self healing share to me.