The Lemon Fool

I thought I'd put this is a new thread as it seems to deserve one of its own.

Here is my list of sales since starting HYP at the end of 2006:



Whether this is a good record or not, I'm not sure - it just "is". I sorry now that some of the reasons for selling were not noted at the time, and are now clouded by distance (yeah, no need to rub it in - I should have kept notes). For that reason, some of the comments are just "lost faith" ( in the share and its future).

I've had 14 vountary sales in 11 years, which I guess makes me a "slow tinkerer", which is always how I characterised my selling habits. 4 sales were take overs or mergers, mostly of shares I did NOT want to lose. BTW, just this moment, I've noticed that S32 isn't on this list and somehow did not appear in my portfolio at all - maybe the shares were spun off and sold simultaneously? I can't remember what the process was, but they didn't get recorded. Similarly with whatever was spun out of Reckitt - sold immediately. So, that's another two to add to the "voluntary" list, making 16 - except they were as a result of an involuntary action


Arb.


PS apologies for the rather odd names, which were just as they spilled from my commercial portfolio program. I should really have revised them with tickers added, but just now I'm being called for other duties.... you can tell this is all rather hurried.

I did contemplate putting my reasons for disposal on the other post, but it was too complicated to arrange.

However, here they are:



E&OE. Many of those taken over were sold in the market, rather than wait several months for the proceeds.

TJH

Here is my list of sales since starting HYP at the end of 2006

And have the replacements performed any better?!!

Crazbe7

This is a measure of overall activity rather than a ledger of individual disposals.




2011 was a "hot fingered" year of consolidation onto the HYP idea and a defined retirement target (the graph I've posted elsewhere). The following 5 years were pretty quiet, until the CLLN implosion came along and incited some tinkering. Last year's number is skewed by a free dealing day and one disposal split up to avoid PTM levies (I bought myself a nice pint with the savings).

My intention is to aim for zero in the Sells column for the next 3-5 years, unless my graph tells me some tinkering with the "ratchet" (ie. recycling low yielders) is needed.

I find this highly instructive considering that a pyad HYP is supposed to be LTBH. My HYP would just about qualify for this Board as well at this rate.

Dod

Crazbe7 wrote:Here is my list of sales since starting HYP at the end of 2006

And have the replacements performed any better?!!

Crazbe7

You may have noticed my comments on this from time to time, a couple of days ago being most recent.

It's really quite hard to analyse, but looking at sales and repurchases after five years, I would say that the decisions have been slightly worse in just above 50% of case. In other words it's almost 50:50 whether I am better off selling and redeploying than staying put. And that will change after 6,7, or 8 years ...

There are so many variables that one couldn't really conclude that for any future particular case I should draw on a general rule. For one thing, both my buying and selling habits/reliability might morph over time, which would make decisions I made five years ago unlikely to happen now. That is, I might get better or worse at it!

And what about the thornier question: running the slide rule over companies which I didn't sell but should have? Easy to say - let's look at Tesco or Lloyds, both of which I hung on to - but there are other companies that some people would have sold. but I didn't - the list could be quite open. And it involves the harder question: had I sold Tesco's what would I have bought? There's no route without hindsight bias, unless one just rules that it was the next company I actually did buy. But that doesn't mean I would have made the same decision if I had had the extra cash from Tescos.

Arb.

In view of what Moorfield mention about his 2011 being hot fingered due to consolidation, I should mention that I have excluded all sales which were for a similar reason. I had a period over a couple of years of re-organisation of broker accounts, and I've excluded those sales as they were not part of my HYP narrative as regards tinkering. They were all transfers to another account leading to the same or greater holding in a second account.
Neither did I include the precious few "trims" rather than disposals which was my main focus in doing this list.


Arb.

My Sales in last ten years of HYP holding.

2011 - RBS (I was bed and Isa-ing and decided to dump RBS picking up HSBC instead)

And I'm done - Guess I'm not a tinkerer.

I was forced to sell my shares in FP.PA (Total) which I earned whilst working there as I had them for less than 5 years but no choice was involved. I also recently sold EDF.PA which I had also earned as an employee but this was because I was fed up with administering them through the company system - Obviously both of these being Employee Benefits and French I never included them in my HYP anyway.

The only other shares I have stopped owning are Northern Rock and Carillion which have both ceased to exist.

Very quick snapshot

HYP Sales
88 sales in just over 20 years.
Most in one year 13 - 2007/2013/2018

HYP Purchases
250 purchase in just over 20 years - lots of top-ups.
Most purchases in one year 16 - 2010. May reach that in 2019 with current cash position/ dividends / ISA £20,000 allocation for 2018/19 and 19/20 available.

All ISA based. I purchase quarterly in my ISA. Not a full 20 year history as worked overseas for a number of years, so no PEP/ISA allocation allowed.

Current position 25 HYP shares + 9 unmenITonables.

Crazbe 7

Dod101 wrote:I find this highly instructive considering that a pyad HYP is supposed to be LTBH. My HYP would just about qualify for this Board as well at this rate.

Dod

I'm sure yours does qualify, as I remember it. Why would you doubt it?
There is nothing in the HYP guidelines to say one must never sell - this is a myth. Management of a HYP is perfectly allowable, and firing missiles (however gently done ) criticising such management is a bit pointless.

Arb.

Since 2005 when I started a HYP I've made almost 400 transactions, 50 of which have been sales. Thank goodness for cheap dealing days!

These figures are skewed by the fact that the portfolio started life in an unsheltered account, wasn't purchased in one go, dividends are mostly reinvested and I'm still in the process of transferring to his and hers ISAs.

Examples
3 buys in 2005
40 buys in 2013 and 7 sells
26 buys in 2018 and 9 sells

Arborbridge wrote:

Dod101 wrote:I find this highly instructive considering that a pyad HYP is supposed to be LTBH. My HYP would just about qualify for this Board as well at this rate.

Dod

I'm sure yours does qualify, as I remember it. Why would you doubt it?
There is nothing in the HYP guidelines to say one must never sell - this is a myth. Management of a HYP is perfectly allowable, and firing missiles (however gently done ) criticising such management is a bit pointless.

I know Arb. I guess I was simply being a little facetious.

Dod

Dod101 wrote:I know Arb. I guess I was simply being a little facetious.

Dod

We're all entitled to a little fun occasionally