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2018 - How did we do?

Practical discussions about equity High-Yield Portfolios (HYP) for income
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Arborbridge
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2018 - How did we do?

#186727

Postby Arborbridge » December 14th, 2018, 8:53 am

Although I don't count my chickens until they are in my account, there are some broad indications of how the end of the year will look for the ArbHYP.

Income forecast at the beginning of the year was for 6.4p per unit, after 6.2p in 2017. It's certain that 2018 will smash that, coming in at around 6.9p.

As for capital, well as Wizard and others have pointed out, that's quite a different story!
2017 unit price ended at 138.65, whereas the current price is 122.1, down 11.9%. I suppose one might be grateful for that when you consider the epic turmoil in politics at present.

So, how did you do?

Brief summaries could be added to this thread (separately to full reports you might post in other threads) so that they are gathered together in one place.

Arb.

StepOne
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186750

Postby StepOne » December 14th, 2018, 9:54 am

Hi Arborbridge,

For 2018 my dividends received in the calendar year are up 4.6% on 2017.

My only cutters were BP and HSBC, and even they were only due to exchange rates.

Star dividend performers were BHP, increased 35%, Unilever up 10% and British American Tobacco up 9%.

In capital terms I am down about 19%, compared to the FTSE-100 only being down about 10%.

So, in summary, a good year for dividends (beating inflation) - not so good for capital.

Cheers,
StepOne

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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186753

Postby miner1000 » December 14th, 2018, 9:56 am

Slightly up in terms of dividend income. I will let you know about the capital value once 31 december has arrived. There is still time for a Santa rally :roll: Miner

daveh
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186767

Postby daveh » December 14th, 2018, 10:49 am

Ok in terms of dividend - up 9% on last year and I've basically (bar £150) added no new money just reinvested dividends (£2000 of which still remain to be invested).

Badly in capital terms - down 10.5% with the performance going negative in the last 3 months. At the end of September the portfolio was just better than breakeven. Unless there is a really remarkable Santa rally this will be only my 2nd down year for my accumulation units since I unitised the portfolio from 2003. Last down year was 2008 when I lost 37%. Income units have been down in 07, 08, 11 and broke even in 14

Portfolio is yielding 5.5% on present value. No more dividends are due this year, though two for HY ETFs are included as an estimate as the actual sterling dividend won't be known until they are paid due to currency conversion from dollars and euros so that is likely to be a few pounds more as the pound is doing badly at the moment.

Wizard
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186796

Postby Wizard » December 14th, 2018, 12:16 pm

daveh wrote:Ok in terms of dividend - up 9% on last year and I've basically (bar £150) added no new money just reinvested dividends (£2000 of which still remain to be invested).

Badly in capital terms - down 10.5% with the performance going negative in the last 3 months. At the end of September the portfolio was just better than breakeven. Unless there is a really remarkable Santa rally this will be only my 2nd down year for my accumulation units since I unitised the portfolio from 2003. Last down year was 2008 when I lost 37%. Income units have been down in 07, 08, 11 and broke even in 14

Portfolio is yielding 5.5% on present value. No more dividends are due this year, though two for HY ETFs are included as an estimate as the actual sterling dividend won't be known until they are paid due to currency conversion from dollars and euros so that is likely to be a few pounds more as the pound is doing badly at the moment.

My bold.

Would it be better to have this thread on the Strategy board, then those that do not want to exclude any non HYP components can still legitimately post their numbers without the risk of guideline discussion or post deletion?

Terry.

Arborbridge
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186820

Postby Arborbridge » December 14th, 2018, 1:30 pm

Wizard wrote:
Would it be better to have this thread on the Strategy board, then those that do not want to exclude any non HYP components can still legitimately post their numbers without the risk of guideline discussion or post deletion?

Terry.


No. My post was regarding my HYP and those of other people, and to give us a place on the HYP board where we could collect together "headline results". I would not welcome my post being shifted: if you don't have a HYP the thread isn't relevant.


Arb.
Moderator Message:
Jumping in as a mod here, I'm 100% happy that these posts are HYP-Practical relevant. Keep posting, folks. --MDW1954

evilbungle
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186822

Postby evilbungle » December 14th, 2018, 1:46 pm

I only unitized in Jan so can't tell how my income per unit has changed (but I only had 2 cutters so it was definitely possible)

In terms of Capital I am down 15% (17% in last Quarter) luckily its all about the income!

idpickering
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186825

Postby idpickering » December 14th, 2018, 1:57 pm

For me dividends up 9%, and capital value as of now, down 11%. I'm not stressed about the capital side of it, and am happy with the dividends.

Ian.

kempiejon
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186828

Postby kempiejon » December 14th, 2018, 2:01 pm

idpickering wrote:For me dividends up 9%, and capital value as of now, down 11%. I'm not stressed about the capital side of it, and am happy with the dividends.

Ian.


Ian are you re-investing dividends or drawing them? I'm pretty sure that like me you haven't unitised so if you're re-investing that new money flatters the income. I don't have my records here so I'll have to add my comment tonight but my numbers will be distorted by ploughing all those dividends back into more income producing picks.

idpickering
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186832

Postby idpickering » December 14th, 2018, 2:08 pm

kempiejon wrote:
idpickering wrote:For me dividends up 9%, and capital value as of now, down 11%. I'm not stressed about the capital side of it, and am happy with the dividends.

Ian.


Ian are you re-investing dividends or drawing them? I'm pretty sure that like me you haven't unitised so if you're re-investing that new money flatters the income. I don't have my records here so I'll have to add my comment tonight but my numbers will be distorted by ploughing all those dividends back into more income producing picks.



Yes I do reinvest my dividends, not necessarily back into the provider.

Ian.

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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186835

Postby moorfield » December 14th, 2018, 2:11 pm

2018 objectives already achieved on 10 September.

I'm suspending all further trading now until this shambolic state of Brexit becomes clearer, in mitigation of a sudden and large crash of share prices. Probably Q2/Q3 next year then.

In the meantime, I'm quite content to be sitting on an accumulating cash pile, and will do an interim update in early January over on Portfolio Management & Review.
Last edited by moorfield on December 14th, 2018, 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Itsallaguess
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186837

Postby Itsallaguess » December 14th, 2018, 2:16 pm

Income up, and snowballing well, given that I'm still working and adding new capital, whilst also re-investing accrued dividends.

Capital down a bit, as expected in this general market. It looks to be less of a capital-drop than the market - not much less, but I tend to hold a large percentage of my investments in income-related Investment Trusts, which yield a little less than many of the shares discussed here and perhaps react a little differently in some market conditions.

To be honest, I'm more interested in where the income might be this time next year, because if there's any longer-term underlying issues generally, then that may well have fed through to company-dividends in 12 months time....

Executive summary - everything going to plan, although currently sitting with around 18% cash and only dripping new capital into the market over and above the 16/17% mark.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

idpickering
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186840

Postby idpickering » December 14th, 2018, 2:26 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Wizard wrote:
Would it be better to have this thread on the Strategy board, then those that do not want to exclude any non HYP components can still legitimately post their numbers without the risk of guideline discussion or post deletion?

Terry.


No. My post was regarding my HYP and those of other people, and to give us a place on the HYP board where we could collect together "headline results". I would not welcome my post being shifted: if you don't have a HYP the thread isn't relevant.


Arb.


I fully support you having put your opening post on this board Arb. It is the HYP Practical Board after all, and the results would be of interest to us here.

Ian.
Moderator Message:
Just to add to what I've posted above, these posts are fine. There is neither need nor intention to move them. --MDW1954

daveh
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186854

Postby daveh » December 14th, 2018, 2:59 pm

I'll post a more detailed update either on the strategies board or the portfolio review board in the New Year. I don't go into details/discuss the high yield ETFs I hold here, but they are part of my HYP and cover non UK markets that I don't want to invest in directly. The vast majority of my portfolio remains the usual suspects that are generally talked about here. My update from last year can be found here if anyone is interested:
viewtopic.php?f=56&t=9330

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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186898

Postby MDS1951 » December 14th, 2018, 5:12 pm

Today's snapshot is that income/unit fell by 4.44% in 2018 compared with 2017, but in 2017 there were some special dividends and I didn't have any in 2018. Capital is down 7.7% compared with a FTSE100 drop of around 10%-11% so I suppose I should be pleased about that. I'll post in more detail at year-end on Portfolio Management And Review.

MDS1951

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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186955

Postby Wizard » December 14th, 2018, 10:36 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Wizard wrote:
Would it be better to have this thread on the Strategy board, then those that do not want to exclude any non HYP components can still legitimately post their numbers without the risk of guideline discussion or post deletion?

Terry.


No. My post was regarding my HYP and those of other people, and to give us a place on the HYP board where we could collect together "headline results". I would not welcome my post being shifted: if you don't have a HYP the thread isn't relevant.


Arb.
Moderator Message:
Jumping in as a mod here, I'm 100% happy that these posts are HYP-Practical relevant. Keep posting, folks. --MDW1954

Fair enough, I only raised the question as the poster before me described his portfolio as an HYP, but then said he had two ETFs in it which means by the definition of this board if is not an HYP, if I understand it correctly. But as you say, your thread so I withdraw the suggestion.

Terry.

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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186958

Postby Wizard » December 14th, 2018, 10:42 pm

idpickering wrote:
kempiejon wrote:
idpickering wrote:For me dividends up 9%, and capital value as of now, down 11%. I'm not stressed about the capital side of it, and am happy with the dividends.

Ian.


Ian are you re-investing dividends or drawing them? I'm pretty sure that like me you haven't unitised so if you're re-investing that new money flatters the income. I don't have my records here so I'll have to add my comment tonight but my numbers will be distorted by ploughing all those dividends back into more income producing picks.



Yes I do reinvest my dividends, not necessarily back into the provider.

Ian.

Ian

So is that capital a true capital position or is it 11% down including the dividends you have reinvested?

Terry.

idpickering
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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186973

Postby idpickering » December 15th, 2018, 6:29 am

Wizard wrote:
idpickering wrote:
kempiejon wrote:
Ian are you re-investing dividends or drawing them? I'm pretty sure that like me you haven't unitised so if you're re-investing that new money flatters the income. I don't have my records here so I'll have to add my comment tonight but my numbers will be distorted by ploughing all those dividends back into more income producing picks.



Yes I do reinvest my dividends, not necessarily back into the provider.

Ian.

Ian

So is that capital a true capital position or is it 11% down including the dividends you have reinvested?

Terry.


Fair point Terry, it does include the dividends that have been reinvested.

Ian.

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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186977

Postby Dod101 » December 15th, 2018, 7:25 am

To be honest, I am not sure that this thread is very helpful as not all are reporting on the same basis. My rough and ready 10% or so down in capital values is without any dividend reinvestment. My dividends are maybe up a tiny amount but I will not know that until year end as I cannot be bothered doing forecasts of the remaining dividends due.

And that is I think about all that anyone can tell from the posts so far. After all a lot of the big dividend payers have not increased their payout for some years, offset by the two tobaccos which have, but they have course have let the side down in a big way with their capital losses. That much is obvious.

Dod

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Re: 2018 - How did we do?

#186984

Postby OZYU » December 15th, 2018, 8:34 am

Here are mine , in my HY ISA, YTD

Acc unit -6.54%
Inc unit -11.20%
Implied Yield 5.25%

Divi per unit ( excluding all specials) has increased by 10.57%, but not a good comparator this year due to portfolio re arrangements. The increase for the previous 5 years averaged 7.89% .

For reference all YTD

FTSE 100 TR -7.24%
FTSE 100 -10.96%
Implied Yield 4.18%

FTAS TR -8.13%
FTAS -11.58%
Implied Yield 3.90%


Ozyu
Last edited by OZYU on December 15th, 2018, 8:42 am, edited 1 time in total.


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