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Interserve open offer

Practical discussions about equity High-Yield Portfolios (HYP) for income
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TUK020
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Re: Interserve open offer

#199670

Postby TUK020 » February 7th, 2019, 6:31 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
Maybe you'd like to compile a list of high yielding shares now which will collapse in the next two years - then we can see how predictable these things are without the benefit of hindsight.

Arb.


Not claiming this is infallible, but the best 'dragons be here' pointer I can find:

https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

Carillion hit 15% on this. Interserve also figured, but I was not a holder and not taking notes

Arborbridge
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Re: Interserve open offer

#199697

Postby Arborbridge » February 7th, 2019, 8:01 pm

TUK020 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Maybe you'd like to compile a list of high yielding shares now which will collapse in the next two years - then we can see how predictable these things are without the benefit of hindsight.

Arb.


Not claiming this is infallible, but the best 'dragons be here' pointer I can find:

https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

Carillion hit 15% on this. Interserve also figured, but I was not a holder and not taking notes


In my view, this is far from infallible. In fact, I wonder whether we should even bother - is it just more over analysing?
Greene King also hit - was it 13% or more? - before recovering, more than once and so have other companies. Most Hedgies are interested in making a quick buck so shorting can get quite high even for good companies which have a future. That 15% on CLLN was really a serious indication only became clear once the ballon had gone up by which time it was too late. Before that it was no more than suspicious and a potential recovery position.

I do admit, howebver, that 12-15% or more is a short position which does demand some further interrogation - but if things are really serious, I'll bet you and I would have no means of finding out.

Arb.


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