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IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

For discussion of the practicalities of setting up and operating income-portfolios which follow the HYP Group Guidelines. READ Guidelines before posting
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kempiejon
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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#207221

Postby kempiejon » March 12th, 2019, 3:22 pm

I hold Talk Talk too, they had the decency of waiting about a year and a half before they cut my income. I don't know that the business case is significantly different to that when I bought - but I've not investigated in depth but as a cutter no more money. I rarely sell so they'll sit in my portfolio. Webfg have the dividends forecast to grow from here.

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#207224

Postby IanTHughes » March 12th, 2019, 3:34 pm

Arborbridge wrote:
IanTHughes wrote:I do not know how to record "Actual Dividend per Unit" when I am adding money and "buying" additional units every month.

There are various ways. I know the problem: you add a load of units which are not producing income for several months.
I used to work out the income per unit at the end of a quarter with that quarter's total income but use the number of units from three months ago. This seemed a good compromise to allow for the "lag" .

About three years back someone explained it was better to work out the income on a daily basis in one column, and accumulate the income in the next column. So the income would be that day's income and the applicable number of units would be whatever the total units in circulation was after the most recent purchase. It sounds laborious, but actually once the columns are set up, it's a doddle. I found that it gave very similar results to my old system (I ran a trial for a year) and I do it that way all the time now.

Having now got a running total column throughout the year, I can pick out any period I like to build a chart. Mostly usually, I plot the sum of the past four quarter - or in other words each quarter plotted represents a rolling one year of dividends.

I'm intending to publish an up to date figure at the end of March.

Off to hear the news now.... (so not proof read the above!!)

How was the news?

Ok, the problem with this is not so much the inability to record accurate figures but rather the changeability of the dates pertaining to a dividend. Having worked for many years with various Banking and Wealth Management systems I can tell you that "forecasting" dividend dates is a fool's game. Those blasted Boards of Directors just keep on changing them! - by one month to the next, one quarter to the next and so on and so on. As a result a line graph of such dividend receipts would be all over the place. I have such a graph from my own portfolio:

Image

However another maybe more useful pictorial representation might be one which compares a Forecast Annual Dividend with the Actual Dividend received. This I have created for my portfolio as follows:

Image

The Forecast Dividend per Unit is as it was recorded at the beginning of the year in question. The Actual Dividend is the sum of all dividends received during the year in question, with each dividend amount converted to a Dividend per Unit, based on the number of units held the day before the dividend is received.


Ian
P.s. Yes, I do know that I really should get a life :D

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#207229

Postby moorfield » March 12th, 2019, 4:00 pm

IanTHughes wrote:No, unlike others, maybe including you, I do not claim to be able to see into the future.


Indeed not. The point of my question of course is exactly the same can be said of those other higher yielding shares!


IanTHughes wrote:The problem with swapping TALK for ULVR is that I would be further over limit within the Consumer Goods Industry grouping. I will not do that.


I used to "forbid" over concentration but have become less neurotic about keeping on top of this, mainly because I find my holdings' relative weights are constantly in flux, and I am regularly topping up anyway. I'm happy to allow holdings to go overweight, but won't then top up those that already are, if you see what I mean. To echo your other question above - why would I pay the commission and stamp duty to trim an overweight holding that can be diluted over time through top ups elsewhere?

(The example from my own portfolio are GSK and AZN, which combined account for 12% of total capital from their sector. So they are both currently excluded from top ups until dilution brings that below 10%, and/or sp crashes raising their yield.)

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#207234

Postby Arborbridge » March 12th, 2019, 4:32 pm

IanTHughes wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Off to hear the news now.... (so not proof read the above!!)

How was the news?

Ok, the problem with this is not so much the inability to record accurate figures but rather the changeability of the dates pertaining to a dividend.
P.s. Yes, I do know that I really should get a life :D


The news?.... well, you know....all a bit tragic.

The changeability is a nuisance, but it doesn't seem to trouble me too much if I plot quarterly figures. Occasionally, I have to make a decision at the end of a quarter. e.g. if something came on 30th May last year, but the 2 April this year. Mostly, it doesn't do too much damage either way.

Your charts are terrific and well worth publishing. I have been criticised for spending too much time on the PC, but I once you keep the records it is a shame to discontinue. I must seriously think about whether some of it is OTT, though, and just keep the basics.

Arb.

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#207273

Postby csearle » March 12th, 2019, 8:24 pm

tjh290633 wrote:I had to reduce the font size to almost unreadable to get all the second table on screen.
That's because you use a steam-powered phone with a numbered wheel on it Terry. C. ;)

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#207328

Postby Arborbridge » March 13th, 2019, 8:01 am

csearle wrote:
tjh290633 wrote:I had to reduce the font size to almost unreadable to get all the second table on screen.
That's because you use a steam-powered phone with a numbered wheel on it Terry. C. ;)


Phone? Who would use a phone to get a decent view of a HYP table? :shock: Get a decent screen!

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#207332

Postby idpickering » March 13th, 2019, 8:06 am

Arborbridge wrote:
Phone? Who would use a phone to get a decent view of a HYP table? :shock: Get a decent screen!


It doesn’t matter what you view it on, it’s the HYP contents that count. ;)

Ian.

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#207333

Postby Raptor » March 13th, 2019, 8:07 am

Moderator Message:
Can we get back to topic. If you want to discuss the screen width etc, Biscuit Bar is worth a visit. Raptor.

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#207368

Postby Arborbridge » March 13th, 2019, 9:46 am

Actually, I have no interest in discussing the screen width personally: my comment was by way of a light hearted addition - something frowned on these days, it seems.
However, if people did have a problem with this particular post, I'd ventured to suggest that this is the most appropriate place for people to give advice, and where it is needed. There's no point in giving advice in the vacuum of some other board where it would be lost when here is where the problem (if there was one) occurred


Arb.

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#207377

Postby moorfield » March 13th, 2019, 10:17 am

idpickering wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Phone? Who would use a phone to get a decent view of a HYP table? :shock: Get a decent screen!


It doesn’t matter what you view it on, it’s the HYP contents that count. ;)

Ian.



Well it might matter a little to IanT's income if you were doing it on the Vodafone network.

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#207406

Postby Gengulphus » March 13th, 2019, 12:38 pm

IanTHughes wrote:I have now learned how to properly post tables so hopefully will not need the help that was required last time – once again, thanks to Gengulphus and Itsallaguess for that help.

Let me add another tip that is pretty quick and easy to do, once you've learnt it. It prevents columns of a table running into each other, and what you do is:

  1. Copy the source for the table into a suitable text editor. (Under Windows, NotePad will do the job.)
  2. Do a find & replace to replace all occurrences of "||" by "||  ||", where the space(s) in the middle of that replacement string are non-breaking space(s), not normal spaces. (Under Windows, you can get them using the Character Map accessory - they're the 'gap' on the 5th line of the array of characters it offers, just after "{ | } ~".) The number of non-breaking spaces to use controls what the minimum space between columns is - I personally think two looks about right, but it's up to you...
  3. Copy the edited source for the table back into your post.
As an example, I've done this for the first table in the OP:


I'm not saying the results are perfect - but they're a step in the right direction (unless one is both using full-width mode and reading in a sufficiently wide window). For further improvements, I would suggest (a) avoiding hyphens in values you don't want to be split across lines, such as the dates in the above, for which a format using "/" will work better; (b) avoiding all-caps text - it generally uses quite a bit more width than all-lower-case or initial-cap-only text; (c) omitting inessentials such as "GROUP", "HOLDINGS", "PLC" and "LTD" from company names, and similarly any mention of share classes (such as "ORD" and share nominal values), unless in each case it is needed because there is a reasonable possibility of confusion for shares that a HYPer might buy.

But I do realise that these may well be rather more work than the tip about preventing columns running into each other - so I'm by no means demanding that anyone does them, just making some suggestions that people might want to follow to make their tables easy to read on a wider variety of devices. And I'll finish with another version of the table to illustrate what's achievable:


Gengulphus

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#207446

Postby IanTHughes » March 13th, 2019, 3:45 pm

Gengulphus wrote:I'm not saying the results are perfect - but they're a step in the right direction (unless one is both using full-width mode and reading in a sufficiently wide window).

In my defence, I do use full-width mode which, together with my wide desktop monitor, meant that when I previewed the post, as I always do, the table(s) looked just fine to me - there is even sufficient space between each column. The problem therefore is, how, when it looks so fine to me, do I know what everyone else sees?

Anyway, I have now added a shorter Company Name to be used in place of my admittedly rather pointless official Share Name and I shall look to shorten Sector names to be no longer than absolutely necessary. I will also take on board your suggestions with regard to hard spaces between the columns.

Thanks again for taking the trouble


Ian

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#207550

Postby Gengulphus » March 13th, 2019, 10:08 pm

IanTHughes wrote:In my defence, I do use full-width mode which, together with my wide desktop monitor, meant that when I previewed the post, as I always do, the table(s) looked just fine to me - there is even sufficient space between each column. The problem therefore is, how, when it looks so fine to me, do I know what everyone else sees?

No need to defend yourself - I'm sharing tips, not attacking you! These are lessons I learnt the hard way, through a lot of trial and error shortly after the table facility was introduced in the early months of TLA, and there's no need for others to all go through the same pain!

And to share one more: one can't reasonably know what everyone else is experiencing, especially if they're using different browsers. But one can take a look at how tables behave on narrower screens/windows by bringing up the preview, then varying the width of the window you're looking at the preview in. Must admit though that I only bother to do that when I'm creating a 'busy' table for a post that I'm putting some significant effort into...

Gengulphus

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IanTHughes HYP – Half Way through Year Eight

#251858

Postby IanTHughes » September 14th, 2019, 6:13 pm

Recent Top Ups are shown here:

viewtopic.php?p=216194#p216194
viewtopic.php?p=220787#p220787
viewtopic.php?p=228272#p228272
viewtopic.php?p=235491#p235491
viewtopic.php?p=244736#p244736

The portfolio is currently as follows:

INDUSTRY           |  VALUE   |  INCOME  |  SECTOR                               |  VALUE   |  INCOME  |  EPIC  |  COMPANY                   |  VALUE  |  INCOME  |  YIELD   |  XIRR     |  NOTE
Basic Materials | 15.68% | 16.50% | Mining | 4.77% | 4.51% | BHP | BHP Group | 4.40% | 4.26% | 5.87% | 13.14% |
| | | | | | S32 | South32 | 0.38% | 0.25% | 4.07% | 11.68% |
| | | Oil & Gas Producers | 10.90% | 11.98% | BP | BP | 5.60% | 6.12% | 6.61% | 15.61% |
| | | | | | RDSB | Royal Dutch Shell | 5.30% | 5.86% | 6.70% | 7.57% |
Consumer Goods | 21.16% | 23.45% | Beverages | 5.31% | 2.71% | BVIC | Britvic | 5.31% | 2.71% | 3.09% | 21.12% |
| | | Food Producers | 3.43% | 2.23% | TATE | Tate & Lyle | 3.43% | 2.23% | 3.95% | 10.39% |
| | | Tobacco | 8.59% | 12.02% | BATS | British American Tobacco | 3.29% | 3.71% | 6.84% | 36.40% | (a)
| | | | | | IMB | Imperial Brands | 5.30% | 8.31% | 9.49% | 2.27% |
| | | Household Goods & Home Construction | 3.83% | 6.48% | CRST | Crest Nicholson | 1.26% | 1.73% | 8.32% | 11.34% |
| | | | | | PSN | Persimmon | 2.57% | 4.74% | 11.16% | 1.22% |
Consumer Services | 15.15% | 13.10% | Food & Drug Retailers | 1.70% | 1.39% | SBRY | J Sainsbury | 1.70% | 1.39% | 4.97% | 0.04% |
| | | General Retailers | 2.21% | 2.39% | BWNG | N Brown Group | 2.21% | 2.39% | 6.56% | -14.89% |
| | | Travel & Leisure | 10.48% | 8.52% | GNK | Greene King | 5.09% | 3.32% | 3.94% | 59.95% |
| | | | | | MARS | Marston's | 4.64% | 4.49% | 5.86% | 57.28% |
| | | | | | SGC | Stagecoach Group | 0.75% | 0.71% | 5.71% | -5.20% |
| | | Media | 0.76% | 0.80% | ITV | ITV | 0.76% | 0.80% | 6.33% | 169.22% | (a)
Financials | 17.50% | 19.86% | Banks | 4.49% | 4.88% | HSBA | HSBC Holdings | 4.49% | 4.88% | 6.57% | 6.60% |
| | | Life Insurance | 5.50% | 6.34% | AV | Aviva | 2.03% | 2.52% | 7.54% | 7.51% |
| | | | | | PHNX | Phoenix Group Holdings | 3.47% | 3.82% | 6.66% | 3.05% |
| | | Financial Services | 3.89% | 5.01% | SLA | Standard Life Aberdeen | 3.89% | 5.01% | 7.81% | 2.67% |
| | | Nonlife Insurance | 3.62% | 3.63% | ADM | Admiral Group | 3.62% | 3.63% | 6.07% | 14.81% |
Health Care | 4.86% | 2.56% | Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology | 4.86% | 2.56% | AZN | AstraZeneca | 4.86% | 2.56% | 3.19% | 17.04% |
Industrials | 4.18% | 2.64% | Aerospace & Defence | 3.64% | 2.38% | BA | BAE Systems | 3.64% | 2.38% | 3.96% | 13.27% |
| | | Construction & Materials | 0.30% | 0.00% | KIE | Kier Group | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -13.44% |
| | | Industrial Transportation | 0.24% | 0.26% | RMG | Royal Mail | 0.24% | 0.26% | 6.59% | 1.96% |
Property | 4.05% | 7.44% | Real Estate Investment Trusts | 4.05% | 7.44% | NRR | New River Reit | 4.05% | 7.44% | 11.13% | -20.89% |
Telecom | 9.66% | 6.78% | Fixed Line Telecom | 0.38% | 0.56% | BT-A | BT Group | 0.38% | 0.56% | 8.98% | -3.30% |
| | | Mobile Telecom | 9.28% | 6.22% | TALK | Talktalk Telecom Group | 3.23% | 1.22% | 2.27% | -13.24% |
| | | | | | VOD | Vodafone Group | 6.05% | 5.00% | 5.01% | 7.47% |
Utilities | 6.59% | 7.68% | Electricity | 4.25% | 5.47% | SSE | SSE | 4.25% | 5.47% | 7.79% | 5.20% |
| | | Multi-Utilities | 2.34% | 2.21% | NG | National Grid | 2.34% | 2.21% | 5.71% | 3.74% |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
CASH | 0.06% | | CASH | 0.06% | | | CASH | 0.06% | | | |
EX-DIVIDEND | 1.11% | | EX-DIVIDEND | 1.11% | | | EX-DIVIDEND | 1.11% | | | |


Note: (a) First purchase under a year ago so XIRR Is volatile


And the overall performance of the Accumulation and Dividend Units, since the start of my HYP in February 2012, now looks like this:


Image

So, the Accumulation Unit value is now the highest in over 52 weeks and close to the so far all time high, achieved on currently last achieved in May/June of last year!

And the dividend growth seems set to continue:

Image

Notes:
1 - Forecast Dividend per Unit values are as at 1 January of the year in question.
2 - Actual Dividend per Unit values are calculated using the Unit Value on the Dividend Payment dates

The forecast for the remainder of the year indicates that the original forecast will be met.


Ian

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#251941

Postby funduffer » September 15th, 2019, 9:19 am

Ian,

A very well presented summary.

I note, that like my own HYP, the dividend unit value has declined relative to the FTSE since 2016. I think this has been a feature of most HYP-like shares, as they have gone out of fashion.

(I am not sure what happened in 2016 to trigger this. I can't see why a certain referendum has anything to do with it!)

Like all things, fashions change and HYP shares may become popular again.

The key thing though is the income, which has very impressive growth (>50% in 6 years), so congratulations.

FD

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#251954

Postby IanTHughes » September 15th, 2019, 10:06 am

funduffer wrote:Ian,

A very well presented summary.

I note, that like my own HYP, the dividend unit value has declined relative to the FTSE since 2016. I think this has been a feature of most HYP-like shares, as they have gone out of fashion.

(I am not sure what happened in 2016 to trigger this. I can't see why a certain referendum has anything to do with it!)

Like all things, fashions change and HYP shares may become popular again.

The key thing though is the income, which has very impressive growth (>50% in 6 years), so congratulations.

Thanks for your interest.

Yes, the gap between my Dividend Unit value and the FTSE 100 did start narrowing in 2016 but it was only in 2018 that it effectively disappeared entirely! I was also interested to note that the upwards movement experienced just recently was more pronounced in my HYP than the FTSE 100.

With regard to the Income generated it should be noted that as all new monies added to portfolio naturally go to the highest yielders of the day, this action alone flatters the income results year on year. This is especially the case in the early years when the extra funds also make up a significant percentage of the portfolio. All in all though, I am happy with the results so far.


Ian

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#251957

Postby Arborbridge » September 15th, 2019, 10:31 am

Well done for the increase in income per unit of around 50%. I've just checked my comparable figure from Dec 12 ro Dec 18 and my increaseit a pathetic 16%.

Despite some people knocking your love of quite high yielders ("Chasing high yield", as some might say 8-) ), your formula does seem to work well - and you have the figures to prove it, which usually the "knockers" do not.

Would you say you have avoided the bananas skins in recent years?: maybe that accounts for the difference between us.


Arb.

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#251969

Postby IanTHughes » September 15th, 2019, 11:08 am

Arborbridge wrote:Well done for the increase in income per unit of around 50%. I've just checked my comparable figure from Dec 12 ro Dec 18 and my increaseit a pathetic 16%.

Despite some people knocking your love of quite high yielders ("Chasing high yield", as some might say 8-) ), your formula does seem to work well - and you have the figures to prove it, which usually the "knockers" do not.

Well, I am a bit of an excel geek but in any case I do think it very important to accurately measure results. Otherwise, how would I know whether my managing my own investments was not damaging my wealth! If I felt that a professional fund manager would do any better I would switch. So far I think I am more than holding my own, and at a comparatively low cost.

Arborbridge wrote:Would you say you have avoided the bananas skins in recent years?: maybe that accounts for the difference between us.

Nope, I have slipped on most of the well known banana skins as you call them. Carillion (CLLN) was the biggest of them, followed by Kier Group (KIE) which has now suspended dividends. There have also been dividend cuts at, in rough date order, Aviva Plc (AV), J Sainsbury (SBRY), BHP Group (BHP), N Brown Group (BWNG), Stagecoach (SGC), TalkTalk (TALK). And let us not forget Vodafone Group (VOD)! I think that is all! Thankfully there are still enough winners in the portfolio - both capital and income - to more than compensate!


Ian

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#251974

Postby monabri » September 15th, 2019, 11:29 am

I think a comparison of holdings between May 18 and Sep 19 would yield some light on the increase in income /unit.

May 18


Additions since May 18.


There has been opportunity to buy some high yielders over the last year or so. The addition of BATS/PSN/CRST/NRR at "opportune times" must surely have increased the div/unit based on the previous core holdings of things like BAE/AZN/BVIC (*). I would suggest that this strategy will amplify div/unit in the short term. Further increases in div/unit will depend on carrying on with the strategy (which I guess ITH will be doing) or obtaining dividend increases from the holdings.

(* what would be the best yields on offer on these in the last few years compared to 8% on BATS, 11% on PSN- it's almost "a buy one - get the yield of two"!)

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Re: IanTHughes HYP – Into Year Eight

#251975

Postby monabri » September 15th, 2019, 11:32 am

p.s. I'm not knocking the strategy - if one is confident via research that the "opportune high yield" is because of a temporary knock back in a company's fortunes - then fair enough.


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