Stephen Bland - New HYP Portfolio @ Stockopedia

[IanTHughes]

Tempting to unitise it.....

Already done

Will you publish from time to time? Just as importantly (and more of a chore) is keeping tabs on, and unitising the income per unit..

Yes I will publish, from time to time.

I have created two "Portfolio" spreadsheets - one for 100% Drawdown and one for 100% Re-Investment - they will be updated every time I update my own and a couple of family HYP's


Ian

[Arborbridge]

Already done

Will you publish from time to time? Just as importantly (and more of a chore) is keeping tabs on, and unitising the income per unit..

Yes I will publish, from time to time.

I have created two "Portfolio" spreadsheets - one for 100% Drawdown and one for 100% Re-Investment - they will be updated every time I update my own and a couple of family HYP's


Ian

Will we be able to keep tabs on the rising income per unit, though? And surely the reinvestment portfolio should be identical to what Pyad actually does. or it will diverge.

Arb.

[Gengulphus]

It's possibly worth pointing out that ITV and WPP are both in the Media sector as far as the current ICB classification (*) is concerned - they only get split into separate categories at a subsector level, where they're in the Broadcasting & Entertainment and Media Agencies subsectors respectively. And it doesn't make sense for a shared tool like HYPTUSS to use anything other than a widely-accepted standard and leave any deviation from that standard for individual users to customise for themselves.

On the other hand, like any other HYPer, Stephen Bland is entirely free to use whatever sector classification he feels best fits his purpose - so one can't necessarily expect him and HYPTUSS to agree entirely about companies' sectors.

As pointed out in the thread, though, Standard Life Aberdeen has become very largely a fund manager, while Aviva has remained a life insurer, and that puts them in the ICB Asset Managers and Life Insurance sectors respectively. So on that one, HYPTUSS is simply out-of-date with regard to a still fairly recent major shift in the company's business.

(*) Which is due to change significantly at the start of July. I haven't tried to check whether that will alter anything I've said above.

Gengulphus

[IanTHughes]

Will you publish from time to time? Just as importantly (and more of a chore) is keeping tabs on, and unitising the income per unit..

Yes I will publish, from time to time.

I have created two "Portfolio" spreadsheets - one for 100% Drawdown and one for 100% Re-Investment - they will be updated every time I update my own and a couple of family HYP's

Will we be able to keep tabs on the rising income per unit, though?

Yes, the hopefully rising Income per Unit will be reported.

And surely the reinvestment portfolio should be identical to what Pyad actually does. or it will diverge.

I do not believe that pyad is intending to run this portfolio in any way. I shall keep the Re-Investment Portfolio up-to-date myself with advice from this board, assuming anybody is interested in providing such advice.


Ian

[JamesMuenchen]

And here's a capture of the current HYP in the HYPTUSS tool, with the approximate number of shares held based on purchase price, stamp-duty, and a notional dealing charge. With many thanks to IanTHughes for collating that base-information to help with this -

Do you have the data for what the shorts are on these? It would be interesting and may help to see whether it really is useful for predicting duds.

[monabri]

And here's a capture of the current HYP in the HYPTUSS tool, with the approximate number of shares held based on purchase price, stamp-duty, and a notional dealing charge. With many thanks to IanTHughes for collating that base-information to help with this -

Do you have the data for what the shorts are on these? It would be interesting and may help to see whether it really is useful for predicting duds.

Here's a link to current visible shorting levels ( visible at 0,5% and above).

https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/

[Itsallaguess]

And here's a capture of the current HYP in the HYPTUSS tool, with the approximate number of shares held based on purchase price, stamp-duty, and a notional dealing charge. With many thanks to IanTHughes for collating that base-information to help with this -

Do you have the data for what the shorts are on these? It would be interesting and may help to see whether it really is useful for predicting duds.

Now that's a very good shout, given the early life of this new HYP portfolio....

Here's the data from the link kindly provided by monabri -

No. | Epic | Business     | Price | Forecast Yield | Short Tracker %
  1 | SLA  | Fund Manager |   271 |    8.00%       | 0.7%
  2 | VOD  | Telecom      |   148 |    8.70%       | 3.3%
  3 | IMB  | Tobacco      | 2,624 |    8.90%       | 0%
  4 | BHP  | Mining       | 1,779 |    8.90%       | 0%
  5 | AV   | Insurance    |   410 |    8.00%       | 0%
  6 | ITV  | Television   |   128 |    6.30%       | 0.6%
  7 | HSBA | Bank         |   615 |    6.30%       | 0%
  8*| BP   | Oil          |   553 |    5.70%       | 0%
  9*| RDSB | Oil          | 2,406 |    6.00%       | 0%
 10*| BLND | Property     |   585 |    5.40%       | 2.9%
 11*| LAND | Property     |   911 |    5.40%       | 1.3%
 12 | WPP  | Advertising  |   842 |    7.10%       | 0%
 13 | SMDS | Packaging    |   346 |    5.10%       | 2.4%
 14 | BA   | Weapons      |   490 |    4.70%       | 0%
 15 | GSK  | Pharma       | 1,585 |    5.00%       | 0%
 16 | IGG  | Gambling     |   540 |    8.00%       | 0.6%

https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/

So looking at the above shorting data, the ones to keep a look-out for seem to be Vodafone, British Land, and DS Smith, but even then, the 2-3% range doesn't seem to be dangerous territory when viewed against some of the higher levels of shorts from the above link (11.2% for Arrow Global / 9.5% for Debenhams / 9.1% for Anglo American / 8.8% for M&S / 8.8% for Metro Bank / 8.7% for AA / 8.7% for Pearson etc...)

Interesting exercise though, and certainly something that can be quickly benchmarked against a new HYP portfolio like this.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[IanTHughes]

Sector 15
Holding 17

Brewing & Pubs - Greene King PLC (GNK) is the tipple

https://www.stockopedia.com/content/how ... /#comments

The portfolio now looks like

No. | Epic | Business       | Price | Forecast Yield
  1 | SLA  | Fund Manager   |   271 |    8.00%
  2 | VOD  | Telecom        |   148 |    8.70%
  3 | IMB  | Tobacco        | 2,624 |    8.90%
  4 | BHP  | Mining         | 1,779 |    8.90%
  5 | AV   | Insurance      |   410 |    8.00%
  6 | ITV  | Television     |   128 |    6.30%
  7 | HSBA | Bank           |   615 |    6.30%
  8*| BP   | Oil            |   553 |    5.70%
  9*| RDSB | Oil            | 2,406 |    6.00%
 10*| BLND | Property       |   585 |    5.40%
 11*| LAND | Property       |   911 |    5.40%
 12 | WPP  | Advertising    |   842 |    7.10%
 13 | SMDS | Packaging      |   346 |    5.10%
 14 | BA   | Weapons        |   490 |    4.70%
 15 | GSK  | Pharma         | 1,585 |    5.00%
 16 | IGG  | Gambling       |   540 |    8.00%
 17 | GNK  | Brewing & Pubs |   658 |    5.10%

* These shares are multiple choice in the same sector

Ian

[Arborbridge]

Defo no shorting problems amongst those shares. Greene King, the latest addition is down at 1.3% now. Having dropped from the recent 10% or so which might have caused some comment, on has to wonder just how useful a measure it is. It's possible that by the time we realise shorting is critical, it will already be too late.

One could argue that the trend in shorting is a tell-tale, but when would one say the line is crossed? In any case, one might almost as well watch the share price itself.


Arb.

[IanTHughes]

Sector 16
Holding 18

Cruise Ships - Carnival PLC (CCL) is in port

https://www.stockopedia.com/content/how ... /#comments

The portfolio now looks like

No. | Epic | Business       | Price | Forecast Yield
  1 | SLA  | Fund Manager   |   271 |    8.00%
  2 | VOD  | Telecom        |   148 |    8.70%
  3 | IMB  | Tobacco        | 2,624 |    8.90%
  4 | BHP  | Mining         | 1,779 |    8.90%
  5 | AV   | Insurance      |   410 |    8.00%
  6 | ITV  | Television     |   128 |    6.30%
  7 | HSBA | Bank           |   615 |    6.30%
  8*| BP   | Oil            |   553 |    5.70%
  9*| RDSB | Oil            | 2,406 |    6.00%
 10*| BLND | Property       |   585 |    5.40%
 11*| LAND | Property       |   911 |    5.40%
 12 | WPP  | Advertising    |   842 |    7.10%
 13 | SMDS | Packaging      |   346 |    5.10%
 14 | BA   | Weapons        |   490 |    4.70%
 15 | GSK  | Pharma         | 1,585 |    5.00%
 16 | IGG  | Gambling       |   540 |    8.00%
 17 | GNK  | Brewing & Pubs |   658 |    5.10%
 18 | CCL  | Cruise Ships   | 3,879 |    4.10%

* These shares are multiple choice in the same sector

Ian

[funduffer]

I thought pyad recommended 15 shares for a HYP.

Seems like that this number has been revised upwards.

Has he finished yet, or are there more to come?

FD

[Wasron]

Sector 16
Holding 18

Cruise Ships - Carnival PLC (CCL) is in port

https://www.stockopedia.com/content/how ... /#comments

The portfolio now looks like

No. | Epic | Business       | Price | Forecast Yield
  1 | SLA  | Fund Manager   |   271 |    8.00%
  2 | VOD  | Telecom        |   148 |    8.70%
  3 | IMB  | Tobacco        | 2,624 |    8.90%
  4 | BHP  | Mining         | 1,779 |    8.90%
  5 | AV   | Insurance      |   410 |    8.00%
  6 | ITV  | Television     |   128 |    6.30%
  7 | HSBA | Bank           |   615 |    6.30%
  8*| BP   | Oil            |   553 |    5.70%
  9*| RDSB | Oil            | 2,406 |    6.00%
 10*| BLND | Property       |   585 |    5.40%
 11*| LAND | Property       |   911 |    5.40%
 12 | WPP  | Advertising    |   842 |    7.10%
 13 | SMDS | Packaging      |   346 |    5.10%
 14 | BA   | Weapons        |   490 |    4.70%
 15 | GSK  | Pharma         | 1,585 |    5.00%
 16 | IGG  | Gambling       |   540 |    8.00%
 17 | GNK  | Brewing & Pubs |   658 |    5.10%
 18 | CCL  | Cruise Ships   | 3,879 |    4.10%

* These shares are multiple choice in the same sector

Ian

The choice of Carnival is an interesting one. I added them to my HYP a couple of weeks ago, as they’re a massive company with a decent operating margin, don’t carry much debt, yield 4% and the dividend has been growing by around 20% a year for the last few years.

I didn’t mention it on this board as they only yield 4%, but if they can continue to grow the dividend at anything approaching the current rate they’ll be a welcome counter to my stable of perennial dividend holders (Shell, GSK, AZN etc).

Wasron

[moorfield]

I didn’t mention it on this board as they only yield 4%,

As Stephen writes of the CCL addition:

I've always said I'm willing to include a very few average or even lower yielders where I feel it necessary as these do not dilute the portfolio yield by much and it is the overall yield that matters, much more than that of the individual holdings.

https://www.stockopedia.com/content/how ... yp-459388/

My bold - this is the same argument I've put here previously using other lower yielder examples, and been routinely flamed for, so I'm pleased finally to see Stephen addressing this in his new HYP - Raptor please note

[IanTHughes]

I thought pyad recommended 15 shares for a HYP.

Seems like that this number has been revised upwards.

Has he finished yet, or are there more to come?

https://www.stockopedia.com/content/how ... 1#comments

In the introduction to this exercise pyad stated:

The main characteristics of my HYP strategy are to choose high yielding UK big caps, widely diversified with equal investment in each industry and totalling 15-20 sectors.

With 16 sectors the HYP could be said to be complete. Whether it is in this instance pyad has not as yet confirmed either way.


Ian

[midgesgalore]

I thought pyad recommended 15 shares for a HYP.

Seems like that this number has been revised upwards.

Has he finished yet, or are there more to come?

FD

Remember the BP & RDSB as well as BLAND & LAND are half holdings in the same sectors so 18 shares could be argued to be equivalent to 16 full holdings in 16 sectors, not too far away from 15.
Who knows? Certainly not me.

midgesgalore

[kempiejon]

with 16 sectors one could say pyad has enough but I'll wait until he actually does, but, why not, if there are still good picks that satisfy selection parameters and don't compromise portfolio yield or unbalance the weightings?

[Wizard]

I didn’t mention it on this board as they only yield 4%,

As Stephen writes of the CCL addition:

I've always said I'm willing to include a very few average or even lower yielders where I feel it necessary as these do not dilute the portfolio yield by much and it is the overall yield that matters, much more than that of the individual holdings.

https://www.stockopedia.com/content/how ... yp-459388/

My bold - this is the same argument I've put here previously using other lower yielder examples, and been routinely flamed for, so I'm pleased finally to see Stephen addressing this in his new HYP - Raptor please note

Whilst I agree with the sentiment the point is this is not Bland's Board and he does not set the guidelines. For this Board it says a share should have a yield above the FTSE100 average. Looking at Dividend Data this morning that is quoted as 4.37%, they quote the yield for CCL (presumably on a like-for-like calculation) as 3.93%. So whether Bland picks it or not, according to the guidelines for this Board it is off topic. As ever, my suggestion is if in doubt post on High Yield Shares and Strategies where the same constraints do not apply.

Moderator Message:
Let's not nit pick on this. The topic is reporting from another source, and the odd outlier is permitted.

The quote from the article points this out, so there is no need to do more than take note. Under the guidelines above, CCL is not a share that would currently be selected. There may be other reasons for holding, such as the shareholders' discount on cruises with lines owned by Carnival, such as P&O or Cunard. Taking that into account, the effective yield may be much higher.

TJH

[Wizard]

I didn’t mention it on this board as they only yield 4%,

As Stephen writes of the CCL addition:

I've always said I'm willing to include a very few average or even lower yielders where I feel it necessary as these do not dilute the portfolio yield by much and it is the overall yield that matters, much more than that of the individual holdings.

https://www.stockopedia.com/content/how ... yp-459388/

My bold - this is the same argument I've put here previously using other lower yielder examples, and been routinely flamed for, so I'm pleased finally to see Stephen addressing this in his new HYP - Raptor please note

Whilst I agree with the sentiment the point is this is not Bland's Board and he does not set the guidelines. For this Board it says a share should have a yield above the FTSE100 average. Looking at Dividend Data this morning that is quoted as 4.37%, they quote the yield for CCL (presumably on a like-for-like calculation) as 3.93%. So whether Bland picks it or not, according to the guidelines for this Board it is off topic. As ever, my suggestion is if in doubt post on High Yield Shares and Strategies where the same constraints do not apply.

Moderator Message:
Let's not nit pick on this. The topic is reporting from another source, and the odd outlier is permitted.

The quote from the article points this out, so there is no need to do more than take note. Under the guidelines above, CCL is not a share that would currently be selected. There may be other reasons for holding, such as the shareholders' discount on cruises with lines owned by Carnival, such as P&O or Cunard. Taking that into account, the effective yield may be much higher.

TJH

I was not suggesting that the reporting of the Stockopedia portfolio should be considered off topic, if I were I would have reported it and I didn't. I was responding to the subsequent post that seemed to be suggesting it could be a justification for wider off topic shares being introduced.

[IanTHughes]

Sector 16
Holding 18

Brickmaker - Ibstock PLC (IBST) is the final brick in the wall

https://www.stockopedia.com/content/how ... /#comments

The portfolio now looks like

No. | Epic | Business       | Price | Forecast Yield
  1 | SLA  | Fund Manager   |   271 |    8.00%
  2 | VOD  | Telecom        |   148 |    8.70%
  3 | IMB  | Tobacco        | 2,624 |    8.90%
  4 | BHP  | Mining         | 1,779 |    8.90%
  5 | AV   | Insurance      |   410 |    8.00%
  6 | ITV  | Television     |   128 |    6.30%
  7 | HSBA | Bank           |   615 |    6.30%
  8*| BP   | Oil            |   553 |    5.70%
  9*| RDSB | Oil            | 2,406 |    6.00%
 10*| BLND | Property       |   585 |    5.40%
 11*| LAND | Property       |   911 |    5.40%
 12 | WPP  | Advertising    |   842 |    7.10%
 13 | SMDS | Packaging      |   346 |    5.10%
 14 | BA   | Weapons        |   490 |    4.70%
 15 | GSK  | Pharma         | 1,585 |    5.00%
 16 | IGG  | Gambling       |   540 |    8.00%
 17 | GNK  | Brewing & Pubs |   658 |    5.10%
 18 | IBST | Brickmaker     |   255 |    3.90%

* These shares are multiple choice in the same sector

pyad has stated that this HYP is now complete, so we can just sit back and watch the dividends roll in.

Thanks pyad, always good to hear from you



Ian

[moorfield]

So whether Bland picks it or not, according to the guidelines for this Board it is off topic.

Oh dear. Perhaps Stephen / pyad will be along soon enough to tell us if he feels this Board is misappropriating his acronym then.

On that note I bid everyone farewell. A new job beckons next week and my spare time will be at a premium so I am weaning myself off the various fora I visit. Good luck with HYP or whatever it is called now.